Asked Oct 14, 11:18 AM EDT (midday). GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 3 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 14, 11:18 AM EDT to Oct 15, 11:18 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.01% | -0.16% | 0.15% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.27% | -0.16% | -0.11% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.09% | -0.16% | -0.94% |
| Perplexity | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.50% | -0.16% | -0.34% |
| Grok 4 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 2.20% | -0.16% | 2.35% |
| DeepSeek | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.73% | -0.16% | -0.57% |
GPT-6
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Cautious on the broad US equity market over the October 14-15 scoring window, with a preference for energy, defensive consumer staples, and company-specific earnings catalysts. September headline CPI reached 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus, while core inflation also reinforced concerns about tighter monetary policy. The S&P 500 was declining during Wednesday morning trading, with semiconductor and financial stocks under pressure. Oil futures were near $95 per barrel, supporting energy-sector earnings expectations amid Middle East supply risks. Energy and consumer staples have demonstrated relative strength during the recent technology-sector rotation. BlackRock's strong quarterly results provide a positive company-specific catalyst, while TSMC's October 15 earnings release creates a potentially significant overnight opportunity. The five equal-weight selections seek to outperform SPY through a combination of defensive relative strength, commodity exposure, and earnings-driven upside. Principal portfolio risks are an abrupt decline in oil prices, a technology-sector rebound that favors SPY, unexpectedly hawkish interest-rate repricing, and disappointing TSMC guidance. All reference prices are researched intraday quotes rather than the authoritative scoring-window start prices.
- XLE — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF is positioned to outperform SPY as elevated inflation, geopolitical supply disruptions, and higher crude prices favor energy producers over rate-sensitive technology stocks. Oil futures traded around $95.41 on October 14, while the energy sector had gained approximately 9% during the first two weeks of October. XLE rose approximately 1.8% on October 13 and continued trading positively during Wednesday morning's broader market decline. The ETF provides diversified exposure to large US energy companies and should benefit if crude remains firm through October 15. Its relatively low exposure to expensive AI-related growth stocks also provides a favorable relative-return characteristic if higher bond yields continue pressuring the Nasdaq. Risks: A sudden geopolitical de-escalation, falling crude prices, profit-taking after the recent energy rally, or a strong broad-market rebound could reverse the sector rotation. Reference price is an October 14 regular-session intraday quote of $67.38, observed at 10:54:56 AM EDT, not the previous closing price.
Return: -0.89%; alpha: -0.73%. - XOM — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: ExxonMobil offers direct exposure to sustained higher crude prices alongside diversified upstream, refining, and chemical operations. XOM advanced from $164.01 on October 5 to $174.08 at the October 13 close, demonstrating substantial recent relative momentum. The stock continued higher during October 14 morning trading despite weakness in the broader market. Persistent geopolitical supply risks, firm crude futures, and rotation toward energy companies support the expectation of further outperformance over the next session. XOM's integrated operations and relatively low market beta provide an additional defensive characteristic during an inflation-driven equity selloff. Risks: The recent appreciation leaves the stock vulnerable to profit-taking; analyst valuation concerns, weaker oil demand expectations, or falling crude prices could trigger underperformance. The selection also overlaps materially with XLE, increasing portfolio energy concentration. Reference price is an October 14 regular-session intraday quote of $175.20, observed at 10:05:21 AM EDT.
Return: -0.65%; alpha: -0.50%. - TSM — confidence 59.0000%. Thesis: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the highest-conviction positive earnings-surprise candidate among the technology names considered, although its near-term directional uncertainty is substantial. The company reports third-quarter results on October 15 before the US market opens, putting the announcement directly inside the scoring window. Previously disclosed quarterly revenue reached approximately NT$1.49 trillion, roughly 50% above the year-earlier level, supported by AI accelerators, advanced manufacturing nodes, and packaging demand. Analysts expect exceptionally strong profit growth. Nevertheless, TSM shares have declined approximately 10% from their October 5 close, reflecting concerns about AI infrastructure spending and technology valuations. This recent correction creates potential for an earnings-driven rebound if management delivers strong margins, higher forward guidance, or reassuring capital-expenditure commentary. Risks: Expectations remain demanding, the earnings move could exceed 4% in either direction, and weak gross-margin guidance, increased capital spending, geopolitical concerns, or continued semiconductor selling could lead to significant underperformance. Reference price is an October 14 regular-session intraday quote of $436.75, observed at 10:59:24 AM EDT, representing approximately a 1.88% decline from the preceding close.
Return: -3.46%; alpha: -3.30%. - BLK — confidence 58.0000%. Thesis: BlackRock reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 14. Adjusted earnings per share reached $15.93 against expectations around $14.13, revenue approached $7.8 billion, and client inflows totaled approximately $205 billion. Assets under management increased to approximately $15.49 trillion, with particularly strong contributions from iShares ETFs and fixed-income products. These results provide a differentiated positive catalyst during a generally difficult session for financial stocks. Shares initially reacted strongly in premarket trading before giving back much of the gain, potentially presenting an opportunity for investors to reassess the quality of the earnings beat. Continued institutional inflows, operating leverage, and diversification across asset classes support relative outperformance. Risks: The substantial reversal from premarket highs signals selling pressure; weakness across the banking and asset-management sector, concerns over private-credit exposures, higher bond yields, and broad equity-market declines could outweigh the strong results. Reference price is an October 14 regular-session intraday quote of $1,076.40, observed at 10:45:36 AM EDT, approximately 0.96% above the previous close.
Return: 2.23%; alpha: 2.39%. - XLP — confidence 64.0000%. Thesis: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF offers defensive exposure to companies selling everyday necessities, which generally exhibit relatively stable demand during periods of economic uncertainty. Rising inflation, increasing Treasury yields, and concerns about additional Federal Reserve tightening have pressured high-duration growth equities. Consumer staples have recently attracted defensive flows: XLP rose approximately 2.1% on October 8 and another 1.2% on October 12. During Wednesday morning trading, XLP was advancing approximately 0.68% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were declining. This positive relative momentum supports continued outperformance through the October 15 measurement. The position is intended primarily as a relative-return and portfolio-diversification selection rather than a forecast of a large absolute gain. Risks: A rebound in technology stocks, weaker consumer purchasing power, elevated transportation and commodity costs, or renewed concerns about staples-company profit margins could undermine performance. Its low-beta characteristics may also limit participation in a sharp market rally. Reference price is an October 14 regular-session intraday quote of $84.76, observed at 10:45:36 AM EDT.
Return: 2.73%; alpha: 2.89%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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SPY is flat to slightly bearish at 778.01 with -0.01% intraday, VIX rising and dollar breakout signaling pressure ahead of CPI. Pre-market snapshot shows mixed major ETFs, healthcare notably bullish. Market is cautious with inflation worries dominating, favoring defensive momentum and oversold megacap bounce into next session.
- AAPL — confidence 68.0000%. Top relative strength on Oct 14. Finnhub intraday shows Current 345.655 vs Prev Close 341.27, +1.28% while SPY is -0.01% in pre-market snapshot. Near all-time high 348.15 hit Oct 13, with BofA reiterating Buy $370. Momentum factor, low beta vs NVDA/TSLA, and flight to quality within Mag7 supports 1-day outperformance if SPY stays flat or bounces post-CPI. Risks: extended near high, reversal if broad market sells off, high valuation concern.
Return: -0.59%; alpha: -0.44%. - XLV — confidence 65.0000%. Healthcare Select Sector SPDR is best performer in data set today: Current 172.73 vs Prev Close 169.66, +1.81% intraday with low beta 0.55. In rising VIX and dollar breakout environment, defensive sector rotation is driving outperformance vs SPY. With cautious tone ahead of CPI, healthcare offers stability. Risks: mean reversion if risk-on returns sharply, underperforms in strong beta rally.
Return: 3.33%; alpha: 3.48%. - GOOGL — confidence 60.0000%. Resilient megacap holding positive while SPY flat. Finnhub shows Current 353.93 vs Prev Close 353.78 +0.04% and intraday high 359.40. All moving averages Buy per Tipranks snapshot, UBS raised to 380 on Oct 14. Search and Cloud exposure provides defensive growth into CPI print. Low PE 17.6 vs Mag7 peers. Risks: ad slowdown on inflation worries, regulatory overhang.
Return: -1.15%; alpha: -0.99%. - MSFT — confidence 55.0000%. Intraday oversold bounce candidate. Finnhub shows Current 538.4876 vs Open 545.27, low 537.42, down -0.91% today after yesterday close 543.45 at all-time high proximity (555.45). Strong Buy consensus, Azure growth narrative, and mean reversion from morning lows favors outperformance over next 24h if CPI expectations ease. Risks: continued tech selling if yields rise, high valuation.
Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.17%. - NVDA — confidence 52.0000%. High-beta snap-back play after -2.18% intraday decline to 223.54 vs Prev Close 228.52. 6-month return +12.41%, all-time high 243.37 on Oct 6. Capitulation today (-6.56% 5-day) creates short-term reversal potential into Oct 15 window if market stabilizes post CPI fears. Leader in AI chips, often leads SPY rebound. Risks: elevated beta 2.25, continued de-risking, negative gamma environment noted for SPY.
Return: -2.94%; alpha: -2.78%.
Gemini 3 Pro
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US equities exhibit cautious consolidation near key technical resistance levels ahead of upcoming tech earnings commentary and key macro data releases, favoring high-beta momentum leaders with resilient short-term order flow.
- NVDA — confidence 76.0000%. Thesis: Ongoing robust institutional accumulation and AI hardware demand continue to drive intraday momentum, supported by strong liquidity and options-related gamma pinning. Risks: Sudden reversal in semiconductor sector sentiment or broader index macro shocks.
Return: -2.94%; alpha: -2.78%. - TSLA — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: High retail participation and elevated intraday volatility provide favorable mean-reversion and momentum setups for a single-session horizon. Risks: High sensitivity to intraday market sentiment shifts and headline risk.
Return: -1.34%; alpha: -1.19%. - AAPL — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Defensive tech heavy-weight characteristics attract steady institutional inflows during range-bound market sessions, offering stable relative outperformance against SPY. Risks: Lack of sharp upside catalysts could lead to muted returns.
Return: -0.59%; alpha: -0.44%. - AMZN — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Resilient consumer discretionary demand and cloud infrastructure strength sustain relative price resilience and positive intraday momentum. Risks: Vulnerable to unexpected shifts in broader consumer sentiment or Treasury yield spikes.
Return: -0.61%; alpha: -0.45%. - MSFT — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Enterprise software leadership and solid balance-sheet positioning offer downside protection and steady institutional sponsorship over a 1-day holding period. Risks: Compression in mega-cap tech multiples during afternoon profit-taking.
Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.17%.
Perplexity
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Hot September CPI, driven largely by fuel costs, favors energy and refining exposure over broad index beta. Futures were modestly higher before the open, but semiconductor weakness and mixed bank results keep the setup selective; I favor refiners, the energy sector, a catalyst-driven biotech, and a large bank recovering from an early dip.
- VLO — confidence 68.0000%. Valero is the highest-conviction pick: refining equities were leading premarket movers, with VLO up 4.69% on tight refining-capacity narratives and stronger expected refining margins. Elevated crude volatility and fuel-led CPI inflation reinforce the sector tailwind. The latest intraday quote found was $455.45 on 2026-10-14. Risks: a sharp crude-price reversal, profit-taking after a large prior-day gain, or a broad risk-off response to inflation.
Return: -1.68%; alpha: -1.52%. - DINO — confidence 64.0000%. HF Sinclair provides a second, more diversified refining/energy expression of the same margin and fuel-price tailwind. It gained 4.33% in premarket trading amid capacity-expansion headlines and analyst price-target increases. The latest intraday quote found was $128.14 on 2026-10-14. Risks: lower liquidity than mega-cap energy names, reversal of the premarket move, and sensitivity to diesel/gasoline crack spreads.
Return: -2.02%; alpha: -1.86%. - XLE — confidence 61.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF captures the energy strength without single-company execution risk. Energy was supported by elevated crude prices and supply-disruption concerns, while CPI inflation was explicitly fuel-driven. The latest intraday quote found was $67.24 at 10:01 AM ET on 2026-10-14. Risks: oil can reverse quickly on geopolitical headlines, and XLE's large integrated-oil weight may lag pure refiners if crack spreads are the main driver.
Return: -0.89%; alpha: -0.73%. - LQDA — confidence 55.0000%. Liquidia has a concrete same-day catalyst: a global settlement with United Therapeutics resolving six lawsuits for a net payment of $380.7 million. It surged roughly 40% premarket and was still trading near $38.06 intraday, indicating persistent demand. Risks are high: a 30-40% single-day move can mean-revert sharply, and the settlement's financial and commercial implications may prompt volatility or selling into strength.
Return: 1.63%; alpha: 1.79%. - JPM — confidence 52.0000%. JPMorgan entered the session under pressure but recovered to trade slightly higher intraday, offering a quality large-cap financial with earnings-season relevance and potential rebound momentum. The latest intraday quote found was $332.98 at 10:28 AM ET on 2026-10-14. Risks: mixed bank earnings, regulatory/enforcement headlines affecting the sector, and hotter CPI keeping bond yields elevated.
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 0.63%.
Grok 4
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Hotter-than-expected September CPI (headline 3.7% YoY) pushed Treasury yields higher and raised October Fed hike odds, sending SPY lower intraday while energy held up on elevated oil and geopolitical supply risks. Chip weakness persisted on Chinese competition news. Specific company catalysts and energy exposure offer the clearest paths to relative outperformance over the next session.
- LQDA — confidence 72.0000%. Liquidia surged on the global settlement of all litigation with United Therapeutics, removing a major overhang and securing uninterrupted access to Yutrepia. Momentum from the large gap higher and elevated volume can persist into the next session relative to a soft SPY. Risks include profit-taking after a 25-30% move and broader risk-off from higher yields.
Return: 1.63%; alpha: 1.79%. - BSP — confidence 68.0000%. Bending Spoons jumped sharply on news of an additional Berkshire Hathaway investment of roughly $330 million, reinforcing confidence in the software platform after a prior stake. Fresh positive capital-allocation news can support continued relative strength versus SPY. Risks are high volatility typical of recent IPOs and potential fade if broader tech remains under pressure from rate fears.
Return: 8.92%; alpha: 9.08%. - XLE — confidence 65.0000%. Energy Select Sector SPDR has been the relative leader amid elevated crude prices driven by Middle East tensions and Houthi attacks. Sector resilience against the CPI-driven equity sell-off positions XLE to continue outperforming SPY on any further oil support or risk-premium persistence. Risks include a sudden geopolitical de-escalation or profit-taking after recent gains.
Return: -0.89%; alpha: -0.73%. - HALO — confidence 62.0000%. Halozyme advanced on a TD Cowen price-target raise to $130 and continued ENHANZE platform momentum. Biotech names with concrete analyst upgrades have shown relative strength even as the broader market digested hotter inflation. Risks are sector rotation away from growth if yields keep climbing and any disappointment on upcoming catalysts.
Return: 2.99%; alpha: 3.15%. - VLO — confidence 60.0000%. Valero has participated in the refining strength tied to elevated crack spreads and oil prices. As a pure-play refiner it offers leveraged exposure to the same energy tailwinds supporting XLE while trading with solid liquidity. Risks include crude price volatility and sensitivity to any shift in refining margins or broader equity weakness.
Return: -1.68%; alpha: -1.52%.
DeepSeek
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US equities are navigating a volatile session on October 14, 2026. September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% year-over-year, fueling rate-hike concerns and pressuring broad indices. However, idiosyncratic catalysts are driving sharp moves in specific names, creating opportunities for outsized single-session gains relative to SPY. The market is rewarding clear, company-specific positive news, particularly in biotech and small-cap industrials, while semiconductor and large-cap tech names face mixed reactions to earnings. SPY is likely to remain range-bound or slightly negative as macro headwinds offset sector strength.
- LQDA — confidence 80.0000%. Liquidia surged over 40% in premarket trading after announcing a $380.7 million global settlement with United Therapeutics that resolves all pending litigation and removes a major overhang on its inhaled drug Yutrepia. The stock was trading around $34.91 at 10:00 AM ET, and momentum from such a transformative legal resolution often persists through the session. Risks include profit-taking after the sharp spike and potential dilution from the settlement payments, but the removal of uncertainty is a powerful catalyst for a one-day horizon. Reference price is an intraday quote from Kabutan.
Return: 1.63%; alpha: 1.79%. - ENVX — confidence 65.0000%. Enovix jumped 10.4% in premarket trading after securing a 100,000-unit battery order from a multinational drone systems provider. The order converts a pipeline opportunity into backlog and highlights Enovix's strategic value as a non-Chinese, TAA-compliant battery supplier for defense applications. The stock was trading around $2.80 after hours, reflecting strong buying interest. Risks include the low absolute share price, recent analyst price target cuts, and the speculative nature of small-cap defense plays. Reference price is the after-hours quote from StockAnalysis.com.
Return: -1.19%; alpha: -1.03%. - VIR — confidence 60.0000%. Vir Biotechnology shares climbed 8.2% in premarket trading after signing a collaboration and license agreement with Gilead Sciences to develop next-generation T-cell engagers for solid tumors. The deal includes $135 million in near-term payments and up to $1.74 billion in milestones, validating Vir's platform. The stock was trading around $11.00 intraday. Risks include the clinical-stage nature of the pipeline and potential reversal if the broader biotech sector sells off on rate concerns. Reference price is the intraday quote from Robinhood.
Return: -0.38%; alpha: -0.22%. - BABA — confidence 60.0000%. Alibaba's US-listed shares rose nearly 2% in premarket trading after unveiling its new Qwen AI smart glasses, priced from $450, positioning the company to compete with Meta in the AI wearables space. The stock was trading around $111.36 at 11:22 AM ET, showing resilience despite a hot CPI print. The launch signals Alibaba's commitment to monetizing AI through consumer hardware, a potential new growth vector. Risks include China macro headwinds, competitive pressures from Meta, and the modest immediate revenue impact of the glasses. Reference price is the live intraday quote from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 0.32%; alpha: 0.48%. - ASML — confidence 55.0000%. ASML reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, with EPS of $14.88 on revenue of $13.42 billion versus estimates of $12.47 and $13.18 billion. The stock initially surged in premarket but pulled back, trading around $1,720.72 intraday. The strong results and raised guidance for Q4 reinforce the AI-driven demand narrative for semiconductor equipment. Risks include profit-taking after the initial pop, broader tech weakness from rate-hike fears, and the stock's high valuation. Reference price is the intraday quote from Sina Finance.
Return: -4.04%; alpha: -3.88%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4 | 1 | 60.00% | +2.35% |
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 4 | 55.00% | +0.11% |
| GPT-6 | 7 | 31.43% | +0.02% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 13 | 43.08% | -0.16% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.17% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| Grok 4.5 | 16 | 40.00% | -0.44% |
| DeepSeek | 16 | 48.75% | -0.59% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 17 | 35.29% | -0.73% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| Perplexity | 5 | 36.00% | -1.99% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2 | 0.00% | -2.16% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 0.00% | -2.53% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 345.77500000 | 343.72000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMZN | 255.59000000 | 254.04000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| ASML | 1709.87500000 | 1640.76000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML/history/ | |
| BABA | 110.29590000 | 110.65000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BABA/history/ | |
| BLK | 1074.03000000 | 1098.00000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLK/history/ | |
| BSP | 53.70000000 | 58.49000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BSP/history/ | |
| DINO | 128.46000000 | 125.86500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DINO/history/ | |
| ENVX | 2.51500000 | 2.48500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENVX/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 354.26000000 | 350.18000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| HALO | 117.96000000 | 121.49000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HALO/history/ | |
| JPM | 332.93500000 | 334.49000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history/ | |
| LQDA | 33.65500000 | 34.20500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQDA/history/ | |
| MSFT | 538.77000000 | 538.82000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| NVDA | 223.71000000 | 217.14000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| SPY | 772.15000000 | 770.92500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSLA | 367.95000000 | 363.00500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| TSM | 435.19870000 | 420.15000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/ | |
| VIR | 10.54000000 | 10.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VIR/history/ | |
| VLO | 456.37500000 | 448.72000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VLO/history/ | |
| XLE | 67.37000000 | 66.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLP | 85.01500000 | 87.33500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/ | |
| XLV | 172.75000000 | 178.49500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLV/history/ | |
| XOM | 175.84000000 | 174.69000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 5d9944e2a94c706afd35d1eea418e0951d6084dc5553ddd3852e234dba1f8516. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.