Asked Oct 22, 10:20 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Opus 5.5 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 22, 10:20 AM EDT to Oct 23, 10:20 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 1/5 | 20.00% | 1.25% | -0.83% | 1.25% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.49% | -0.83% | 1.49% |
| Perplexity | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.30% | -0.83% | 0.30% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.60% | -0.83% | -0.60% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -1.11% | -0.83% | -1.11% |
GPT-6
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Favor substantive earnings revisions over speculative sector enthusiasm, while allowing selective reversals when operating results contradict an adverse initial interpretation. These are forecasts after the reported quotes, not claims that earlier moves remain available. Exact start-window prices could not be verified, so elapsed-window returns are unknown. Completed history ends October 21; October 22 observations are partial. Quote timestamps have minute resolution, normalized to zero seconds. Pages label quotes real-time, but the retrieved snapshots are several minutes old. Small closing-price and volume discrepancies exist across vendors; completed OHLC calculations consistently use Stock Analysis Close, not Adj. Close.
- SMCI up — confidence 60%. Ranked first because the company verified a substantial preliminary revenue and margin improvement: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000025/smcifirstquarterfy2027busi.htm. Before that update, shares had weakened; the October 21 gap then reflected meaningful repricing. Nevertheless, its upper wick, close near the session low and subsequent retreat argue against uncomplicated continuation. Completed volume was 2.28 times its 20-session mean. latest_price=33.36 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T10:38:00-04:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/smci/statistics/; regular-session quote labeled real-time, approximately 10 minutes old at research cutoff. From the verified pre-release October 20 close of 32.47, the observed move is +2.7410%, suggesting much initial enthusiasm has unwound. I expect renewed demand after this quote because the business revision remains substantive; that is an inference, not observed confirmation. A future break below 32.47 would undermine the thesis. The partial-session range was internally inconsistent and is withheld. Exact elapsed-window performance is unavailable.
Return: -0.52%; alpha: 0.31%. - NFLX down — confidence 59%. Ranked second because reduced advertising expectations provide a substantive reason for continued earnings-estimate caution. The earnings report beat profit expectations but lowered the advertising outlook: https://apnews.com/article/332fc9ae36c9ecc788cb163a70e655ed. Additional detail attributes the revision to slower product rollout and partner integrations: https://ppc.land/netflix-ad-revenue-forecast-drops-to-2-7b-as-partner-integrations-slip/. Shares were declining before earnings; the source-session gap down and failed recovery produced a close in the lower third of the range on 2.52 times average completed volume. latest_price=66.06 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T10:38:00-04:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nflx/market-cap/; regular-session quote labeled real-time, approximately 10 minutes old at research cutoff. The observed pre-earnings-close-to-quote return is -3.8288%; substantial disappointment is already reflected. Today's rebound and the profit beat are strong counter-evidence. I nevertheless expect selling to resume after this quote while growth concerns persist. Sustained recovery above 67.12 would undermine that expectation. Exact elapsed-window return is unavailable.
Return: 0.78%; alpha: 0.06%. - CRL up — confidence 58%. Ranked third for constructive completed price action, with lower conviction because much of the immediate catalyst is sentiment. Coverage links renewed interest to AI-enabled drug discovery and analyst enthusiasm: https://stockstotrade.com/news/charles-river-laboratories-international-inc-crl-news-2026_10_21-2/. The issuer's strategy and financial targets are verified, but were announced September 24, not newly on October 21: https://ir.criver.com/news-releases/news-release-details/charles-river-highlights-refreshed-strategic-vision-drive. Before the reported AI commentary, shares consolidated near 300; an October 20 gap preceded October 21's wide advance and close near its high on 2.70 times average completed volume. latest_price=346.80 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T10:40:00-04:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crl/statistics/; regular-session quote labeled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at research cutoff. A precisely timed pre-commentary price is unavailable, so event reaction is null. Considerable optimism is already reflected; further buying after this quote is an inference. The rapid extension and unproven AI revenue benefit oppose continuation. A future loss of 333.30 would undermine the breakout thesis. Elapsed-window return is unknown.
Return: -1.95%; alpha: -1.11%. - T up — confidence 55%. Ranked fourth as a selective reversal because operating cash flow and raised adjusted-EPS guidance provide a substantive counterweight to the selloff. The issuer reported stronger revenue and maintained substantial cash-flow expectations: https://about.att.com/story/2026/3q-earnings.html. Coverage attributes disappointment to the underlying earnings-growth outlook: https://apnews.com/article/4fa93685cd49e51e7ff0d840fdd38b0d. Before results, recent closes were broadly stable; the source session then gapped down and closed near its low on 1.82 times average completed volume. That history favors further downside and is the strongest contrary evidence. latest_price=22.41 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T10:39:00-04:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/t/; regular-session quote labeled real-time, approximately nine minutes old at research cutoff. The pre-results-close-to-quote return is -4.3126%, despite today's rebound. I expect additional recovery after this quote as investors weigh cash generation against slower growth; the rebound already observed is not a future opportunity. A future break below 21.79 would invalidate the reversal thesis. Exact elapsed-window return is unavailable.
Return: -5.04%; alpha: -4.21%. - BE down — confidence 54%. Ranked fifth because the bearish case faces an imminent earnings event. Coverage attributes the source-session enthusiasm to Musk's power-and-cooling comments, without a named Bloom contract: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bloom-energy-gains-8-elon-191934121.html. This is mainly thematic sentiment. The issuer verifies that earnings are upcoming after today's close: https://www.bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-to-announce-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-october-22-2026/. Before the thematic rally, shares had declined substantially; October 21 gapped higher and closed near its high, but completed volume was only 0.85 times its 20-session mean. latest_price=220.58 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T10:30:00-04:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/market-cap/; regular-session quote labeled real-time, approximately 18 minutes old at research cutoff. A precisely timed pre-comment price is unavailable; event reaction is null. Much of the thematic rally has already unwound. Further weakness after this quote is my inference, not an assumed earnings reaction. Strong results could reverse it; a future recovery above 238.53 would undermine the call. Partial ranges were inconsistent, and vendor closing-price discrepancies reduce confidence. Exact elapsed-window return is unavailable.
Return: -14.54%; alpha: 15.37%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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On Oct 21 2026 the US market closed higher with Nasdaq +1.05% led by AI and crypto names. Top regular-session movers included POM +200.84%, SPHL +44.86% and AHT +43.85% on the upside and HVII -50.88%, AVEX -32.71% and CMCT -29.20% on the downside for the whole market, while filtered large-cap leaders were SMCI +9.55%, SEI +9.52% and MSTR +7.54% and losers RCUS -19.58% and NFLX -5.31%. The breadth was positive with 4,375 advancers vs 3,493 decliners. The pattern favors momentum continuation in AI infrastructure with substantive guidance raises, but speculative options-driven spikes and dilutive offerings are prone to reversal.
- SMCI up — confidence 68%. Source session Oct 21 close +9.55% to $35.57 vs prior $32.47, day range $35.14-$37.45 open $36.42 volume 81.91M. Ranking: largest verified large-cap gainer that meets $5, $1B, $20M filters. Catalyst: Super Micro forecast quarterly revenue and margin above estimates after SpaceX】 first profit lifted AI sentiment; substantive guidance change reported by Reuters via Swingfolio. Volume 1.9x normal supports continuation. Latest quote at answering time: latest_price $33.49 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockscan.io/stocks/SMCI/price-history type delayed regular-session close for Oct 22, down -6.13% intraday from Oct 21 close, showing partial profit-taking. Observed event-to-quote move: pre-event close Oct 20 $32.47 to Oct 21 $35.57 = +9.55% reaction, then Oct 22 pullback to $33.49 = -5.85% from peak, indicating much of catalyst priced but momentum intact above 20-day avg. Partial session Oct 22 open $34.78 high $34.92 low $33.11 volume 16.13M as of close. Counter-evidence: RSI elevated, after-hours faded, broader Nasdaq only +1.05%. Invalidation would be close below $30.92 Oct low.
Return: -0.52%; alpha: 0.31%. - RCUS down — confidence 72%. Source session Oct 21 close $19.10 down -19.58% from $23.75, day range low $18.98 high $24.47 volume 4,572,326. Ranking: largest verified large-cap loser meeting filters. Catalyst: substantive negative - clinical data release plus $250M underwritten public offering of 14.3M shares at $17.50 per share priced Oct 22, dilutive and below market, reported by TradingView and GuruFocus. Latest quote at answering time: latest_price $19.099 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T09:30:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=RCUS type delayed regular-session open, open $17.43 high $19.62 low $17.43 previous close $19.10. Observed event-to-quote: pre-event Oct 20 close $23.75 to Oct 21 $19.10 = -19.58%, then offering price $17.50 creates additional overhang. Partial session Oct 22 shows gap down to $17.43. Direction down continuation expects offering overhang to weigh. Counter-evidence: Wedbush raised target to $49, oversold bounce potential.
Return: -4.76%; alpha: 5.59%. - NFLX up — confidence 61%. Source session Oct 21 close $65.04 down -5.31% from $68.69, range $64.10-$67.12 volume 101,393,282. Ranking: largest mega-cap loser meeting filters, substantive. Catalyst: Netflix reported Q3 and forecast Q4 revenue and earnings below analyst estimates, cut 2026 advertising revenue target, reported by TokenPost and FinanceMagnates; substantive guidance cut changes near-term expectations. Latest quote at answering time: latest_price $66.13 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockscan.io/stocks/NFLX/price-history type delayed regular-session close, open $67.24 high $67.24 low $65.02 volume 14,914,929, up +1.73% intraday bounce. Observed event-to-quote: Oct 20 $68.69 to Oct 21 $65.04 = -5.31%, then Oct 22 recovery to $66.13 = +1.67% indicating partial reversal underway. Direction up reversal expects oversold bounce with RSI 32.9 near two-year low $65. Partial session shows higher low. Counter-evidence: guidance cut may have legs, 52-week low $64.10 tested.
Return: 0.78%; alpha: 1.61%. - MSTR up — confidence 64%. Source session Oct 21 close $153.48 up +7.54% from $142.72, range $143.9-$155.7 open $146.20 volume 22,587,340. Ranking: second large-cap crypto beta gainer. Catalyst: Bitcoin rebound after pullback, Strive +13% and Strategy +7% after BTC rebound per Yahoo Finance, substantive linkage via Bitcoin treasury; also SpaceX AI optimism lifted risk. Latest quote at answering time: latest_price $149.08 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockscan.io/stocks/MSTR/price-history type delayed regular-session close, Oct 22 high $149.4 low $144.1 volume 4,992,244 down -3.20% intraday pullback. Observed event-to-quote: Oct 20 $142.72 to Oct 21 $153.48 = +7.54%, then Oct 22 to $149.08 = -2.87% retrace. Direction up continuation expects Bitcoin momentum to persist. Counter-evidence: Bitcoin -2.08% Oct 22 per btcormstr terminal and MSTR already extended from $81.81 June low.
Return: -2.12%; alpha: -1.29%. - SEI down — confidence 55%. Source session Oct 21 close $69.37 up +9.52% from $63.34, range $65.98-$70.57 volume 3,341,795. Ranking: top energy infrastructure gainer meeting filters. Catalyst: heightened derivatives activity and improving operational performance noted Oct 21, plus options buzz, more speculative than fundamental contract signing; prior catalysts include $500M term loan and 900MW portfolio addition but Oct 21 move driven by options. Latest quote at answering time: latest_price $59.76 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T09:30:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=SEI type live regular-session, open $65.97 high $67.01 low $59.34 average daily traded value $170.81M. Observed event-to-quote: Oct 20 $63.34 to Oct 21 $69.37 = +9.52%, then Oct 22 drop to $59.76 = -13.85% indicating reversal underway. Direction down reversal expects speculative premium to fade. Counter-evidence: S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion and data center power platform narrative may support continuation.
Return: -4.57%; alpha: 5.40%.
Perplexity
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The source session shows a sharp intra-market rotation: earnings-driven gainers in streaming, defense and AI servers are bid while semiconductor capital equipment, optical and several large-cap communication names are sold. I favor selective continuation in names with substantive earnings or guidance catalysts, and one tactical reversal in AT&T where the decline appears sentiment-led despite a reported beat.
- SPOT up — confidence 62%. Spotify opened up 10.46% at $580.29 on October 22 at 9:51 AM ET after reporting Q3 paying subscribers of 306 million, slightly above consensus, and commentary pointing to improving margin trends; this is a substantive operating-results catalyst rather than a purely speculative theme. I use the intraday mover quote as the latest verifiable price: latest_price 580.29 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T09:51:00-04:00, live regular-session quote from https://247wallst.com/cards/spotify-opened-up-10-5-to-lead-a-389-name-board-with-lockh-spot-session-movers-01m5hy42hewsqk5rjybnzqd20r. The prior completed session closed at $525.34 on October 21, so the open already reflected most of the earnings surprise; I still expect some continuation as analysts digest the margin trajectory, but the large gap limits upside. The strongest counter-evidence is the size of the opening gap and the stock's prior weakness: the October 21 close was below the prior close of $526.08, and the page showed a 12-month decline of about 21.8%. Invalidation: a close below the October 21 close of $525.34 would undermine the continuation thesis. Market cap was verified at approximately $108.00 billion at the October 21 close; I could not verify a current market cap or 20-day average dollar volume at the intraday quote, so those fields are omitted.
Return: 1.38%; alpha: 2.21%. - LMT up — confidence 58%. Lockheed Martin opened up 9.3% at $602.91 on October 22 at 9:51 AM ET after raising full-year sales and profit forecasts following higher quarterly earnings; this is a substantive guidance catalyst. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price 602.91 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T09:51:00-04:00, live regular-session quote from https://247wallst.com/cards/spotify-opened-up-10-5-to-lead-a-389-name-board-with-lockh-spot-session-movers-01m5hy42hewsqk5rjybnzqd20r. The stock had been under pressure before the report, and the guidance raise directly improves the revenue and earnings outlook, so I favor continuation rather than an immediate fade. Counter-evidence: the move is very large for a low-beta defense prime, and pre-report coverage cited political and competitive risks; a 9.3% gap can attract profit-taking. The October 21 completed session closed at $547.12, essentially flat from its $548.71 prior close, so the earnings reaction is the dominant new information. Invalidation: a close below $547.12 would negate the post-earnings continuation thesis. Market cap was approximately $126.27 billion at the latest page snapshot; I could not verify a current market cap or 20-day average dollar volume at the intraday quote, so those fields are omitted.
Return: 1.00%; alpha: 1.83%. - LRCX down — confidence 60%. Lam Research opened down 10.2% at $234.14 on October 22 at 9:51 AM ET despite record fiscal Q1 revenue and an EPS beat, because its December-quarter outlook was viewed as disappointing and it stoked chip-equipment spending concerns; this is a substantive guidance-driven decline, not merely sentiment. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price 234.14 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T09:51:00-04:00, live regular-session quote from https://247wallst.com/cards/spotify-opened-up-10-5-to-lead-a-389-name-board-with-lockh-spot-session-movers-01m5hy42hewsqk5rjybnzqd20r. Multiple analysts cut price targets within an hour of the open, including Needham to $290 from $390 and Morgan Stanley to $339 from $385, reinforcing near-term downside pressure. The October 21 completed session closed at $260.81, down 1.00%, after opening at $270.90, showing pre-announcement weakness; the earnings-guidance disappointment extends that path. Counter-evidence: the reported quarter itself beat estimates, the stock is deeply below its 52-week high of $438.50, and an oversold bounce is possible after a 10% gap down. Invalidation: a recovery above the October 21 close of $260.81 would undermine the continuation thesis. Market cap was approximately $326.38 billion at the latest page snapshot; I could not verify a current market cap or 20-day average dollar volume at the intraday quote, so those fields are omitted.
Return: -4.94%; alpha: 5.77%. - T up — confidence 45%. AT&T was listed down 6.45% at $21.91 among S&P 500 losers on October 22 despite beating Q3 revenue and profit expectations, with concern centered on fiber pricing and potential SpaceX spectrum/connectivity competition; the fundamental beat is substantive, while the competitive concern is more speculative. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price 21.91 USD, quote_time not explicitly published in the source, regular-session intraday quote from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stocks-today-us-stocks-open-higher-as-investors-weigh-energy-costs-before-fed-rate-decision/printarticle/129634304.cms; quote freshness cannot be verified to the minute. Because the stock fell despite a reported beat, I classify this as a reversal candidate with direction up: the source-session previous_change_percent is below zero and I expect a partial recovery. The strongest counter-evidence is that the competitive narrative may persist and the stock could continue de-rating; I could not verify AT&T's October 21 OHLC, market cap, or 20-day average dollar volume from the available sources, so those fields are omitted rather than estimated. Invalidation: a further decline below the quoted intraday price of $21.91 on rising volume would undermine the reversal thesis.
Return: -5.04%; alpha: -4.21%. - NFLX down — confidence 52%. Netflix was listed down 5.31% at $65.04 among S&P 500 losers on October 22 after weak Q4 guidance, an ad-revenue forecast cut, layoffs, and analyst downgrades; these are substantive guidance and operational catalysts, not just sentiment. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price 65.04 USD, quote_time not explicitly published in the source, regular-session intraday quote from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stocks-today-us-stocks-open-higher-as-investors-weigh-energy-costs-before-fed-rate-decision/printarticle/129634304.cms; quote freshness cannot be verified to the minute. Because the source-session change is below zero and the catalyst reduces near-term revenue and profit expectations, I favor continuation with direction down. The strongest counter-evidence is that a 5% decline in a widely owned mega-cap can produce a quick technical bounce, and I could not verify Netflix's October 21 OHLC, current market cap, or 20-day average dollar volume from the available sources, so those fields are omitted rather than estimated. Invalidation: a recovery above the quoted intraday price of $65.04 would undermine the continuation thesis.
Return: 0.78%; alpha: 0.06%.
Gemini 3 Pro
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US equity markets demonstrate selective strength driven by third-quarter corporate earnings releases. While broad benchmarks are posting moderate intraday gains, mega-cap tech performance remains divergent following mixed quarterly guidance across hardware and semiconductor capital equipment suppliers. High-conviction focus rests on fundamental catalysts where strong operational earnings beats create sustained momentum, while severe forward guidance cuts face ongoing pressure.
- BHVN up — confidence 75%. Biohaven Ltd. (BHVN) posted a regular-session gain of 0.51% on October 21, but surged dramatically during the October 22 session following announcements of a licensing agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical that delivers substantial non-dilutive capital. Quote used: live intraday quote of $15.55 USD at 2026-10-22T10:46:08-04:00 (approx. 2.5 hours stale relative to submission) via NYSE market data feed. Before this catalyst, BHVN traded in a multi-week consolidation near $11.75. The post-announcement intraday reaction saw shares open at $16.10 (+36.8%), establishing an observed event-to-quote move of +32.3%. The non-dilutive balance sheet de-risking provides fundamental backing for further continuation over the target 1-day horizon.
Return: -8.48%; alpha: -7.64%. - LRCX down — confidence 70%. Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) dropped -13.55% during regular trading on October 21 and extended lower pre-market and intraday on October 22 following a quarter end update with weak December guidance. Quote used: live intraday quote of $235.98 USD at 2026-10-22T10:46:13-04:00 via NASDAQ market data feed. The price path prior to earnings saw LRCX decline from $301.68 on October 13 to $260.81 on October 21. The observed post-guidance event-to-quote move is -9.52% from the October 21 close. Reduced forward wafer-fab equipment spend expectations constitute a substantive negative fundamental shift supporting downside continuation.
Return: -4.94%; alpha: 5.77%. - IBM up — confidence 68%. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) rose +10.01% in regular trading on October 21 after exceeding Q3 revenue expectations and raising its annual software growth forecast. Quote used: live intraday quote of $246.59 USD at 2026-10-22T10:45:55-04:00 via NYSE market data feed. Prior to the print, IBM traded steadily upward from $228.21 on October 13 to $251.06 on October 21. The observed post-event intraday change is -1.95% from the October 21 close ($251.49) as traders lock in gains. Accelerating software demand (+7-8% guidance) provides a substantive multi-quarter structural boost, supporting an eventual continuation of its upward trend.
Return: 0.84%; alpha: 1.68%. - ALLE up — confidence 66%. Allegion PLC (ALLE) gained +5.50% on October 21 ahead of its scheduled Q3 earnings report on October 22. Quote used: live intraday quote of $172.31 USD at 2026-10-22T10:46:04-04:00 via NYSE market data feed. The price path leading into the print saw steady accumulation from $150.70 on October 13 to $158.99 on October 21. The observed Q3 event-to-quote move is +8.59% over the October 21 close ($158.68) following reported top and bottom-line beats. Robust Americas non-residential door/security demand provides substantive business justification for continuation.
Return: 3.50%; alpha: 4.33%. - TSLA up — confidence 64%. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) logged a regular session gain of +3.94% on October 21, buoyed by tech momentum. Quote used: live intraday quote of $386.61 USD at 2026-10-22T10:45:00-04:00 via NASDAQ market data feed. Pre-event price history saw TSLA rise from $352.01 on October 16 to $386.47 on October 21. The observed intraday move on October 22 is flat-to-slightly positive (+0.04% at $386.61). Broad tech sector strength supports continuation, though sentiment remains high-beta and vulnerable to macroeconomic yield shifts.
Return: -3.80%; alpha: -2.96%.
Claude Opus 5.5
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Source session is Wed 2026-10-21, the last session completed by prediction_time. The movers were screened from about 2,440 US-listed common stocks above $1B market cap, using Yahoo Finance daily closes for 10/20 and 10/21. Picks then had to pass the price >= $5, market cap >= $1B and 20-day average dollar volume >= $20M floors. On 10/21 the S&P 500 rose 0.58% and the Nasdaq 1.05%, led by SpaceX/Super Micro AI enthusiasm. Thursday 10/22 has turned sharply risk-off: as of about 10:51 ET the Nasdaq is down about 2.3%, the S&P 500 about 1.4%, VIX is near 19.3 and the 10-year yield is down about 13 bp. The drivers are Lam Research's post-earnings drop, Tesla's capex cut and continuing AI-financing worries. Capital is rotating out of AI hardware and semis into software/security and rate-sensitive defensives. The basket leans into that rotation: ZS continuation up and T reversal up as rotation beneficiaries, SMCI reversal down as an AI-hardware fade despite a substantive guidance beat. Two idiosyncratic post-shock rebounds complete it: LAD after an outside-reversal earnings day, and RCUS after a priced equity offering was absorbed at the open. Main risk to the basket: the selloff broadens into all equities, which would hurt the four long-direction picks, or a sharp AI-hardware bounce, which would hurt SMCI. All live quotes are Yahoo Finance (Nasdaq real-time) regular-session prints from about 14:51 UTC on 2026-10-22. That is roughly 30 minutes after prediction_time, so part of each move since the 10/21 close has already elapsed inside the scored window.
- ZS up — confidence 60%. Source session: ZS rose 7.84% on 10/21 to 231.33, closing within 0.3% of its session high of 232.06. Catalyst (fact, Yahoo Finance/StockStory 10/21): the software and cybersecurity group rallied as investors rotated away from semiconductors over AI-capex financing worries. NVIDIA also unveiled its OpenShell reference architecture for securing enterprise AI agents, and Zscaler, CrowdStrike and Okta announced support for it. Assessment (inference): this is mainly a sentiment and positioning catalyst, not a change to Zscaler's near-term numbers. Price/volume: 10/21 volume of 2.76M shares was about equal to the 20-day average of 2.83M, so the breakout was not on exhaustion-level volume. Today ZS is holding gains in a falling Nasdaq: latest_price 236.59 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T14:51:44Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZS/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 14:51Z: open 233.00, high 237.53, low 231.64, cumulative volume about 0.94M. Relative intraday volume cannot be established because no same-time baseline was found. Today's high is above the prior 20-session high of 237.22, so price is breaking out. Observed so far: +2.3% from the 10/21 close, part of which is already inside the window. Expected after the quote: further modest gains if the semis-to-software rotation persists into Friday. Counter-evidence: ZS is very volatile (35 moves over 5% in a year), it fell 6.8% just 5 sessions earlier on the same AI-funding theme, and a broad tech liquidation could drag security names down too. Invalidation: a break back below 231.33 (the 10/21 close), or a reversal of the rotation with semis leading a rebound. Sources: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/zscaler-tenable-shares-soaring-know-204639252.html ; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZS/history/
Return: 3.66%; alpha: 4.49%. - T up — confidence 57%. Source session: AT&T fell 6.45% on 10/21 to 21.91 after Q3 results. Facts (company release, TIKR, Benzinga, TipRanks): adjusted EPS was $0.65 vs about $0.60 expected, revenue $32.32B vs about $31.65B, and the 2026 adjusted EPS outlook was raised to about $2.40. However, postpaid phone net adds of 379k missed the roughly 387k estimate, fiber ARPU fell 4% y/y with a similar decline guided for Q4, and Benzinga noted fears of SpaceX Starlink Mobile entering US wireless. Goldman (PT $27 from $30) and KeyBanc (PT $33 from $36) cut targets on 10/22. Assessment (inference): the selloff was driven by competitive and ARPU sentiment, while reported fundamentals and guidance improved. That gap leaves room for a reversal, especially with Treasury yields falling and money rotating into defensives. Price/volume: 10/21 was a gap-down that closed at 21.91, near the session low of 21.79, on 84.4M shares (about 1.8x the 20-day average). A low close usually argues for continuation, which is the main counter-evidence. Intraday reaction so far: latest_price 22.415 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T14:51:44Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 14:51Z: open 22.05, high 22.67, low 22.03, cumulative volume about 13.6M. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Observed so far: +2.3% from the 10/21 close, part of it already elapsed in the window. Expected after the quote: a further partial retracement toward the pre-earnings 23.4 area over the remaining window, not a full recovery. Invalidation: a break below 21.79 (the 10/21 low, also the 20-session low). Sources: https://www.tikr.com/blog/att-stock-falls-q3-earnings-beat-raised-full-year-guidance ; https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/26/10/62499297/atts-iphone-18-promotions-fail-to-deliver-expected-subscriber-growth ; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/
Return: -5.04%; alpha: -4.21%. - LAD up — confidence 54%. Source session: Lithia fell 10.15% on 10/21 to 269.13. Q3 results were released before the open: revenue about $9.95B and basic EPS $13.23 vs $8.62 a year earlier, with record Driveway Finance income, but same-store revenue fell 1.4% and interest costs are rising (Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance). Price path (fact): the stock gapped up to 317.95, hit 323.51, then collapsed to a 265.72 low and closed at 269.13 on 1.07M shares (about 2.8x the 20-day average). That is a roughly 17% high-to-close outside reversal. UBS cut its PT to $305 from $335 on 10/22. Assessment (inference): the business did not deteriorate in a way that justifies a 17% intraday swing. The selloff looks like a leverage and interest-cost sentiment shock plus positioning, and the intraday flush has capitulation features. Intraday reaction so far: latest_price 283.76 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T14:51:37Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LAD/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 14:51Z: open 265.44, high 287.20, low 264.21, cumulative volume about 147k. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Peer auto dealers (GPI, AN, SAH) are also rebounding today despite the falling market. Observed: +5.4% from the 10/21 close, much of it already elapsed inside the window. Expected after the quote: a smaller further recovery as the earnings-day overshoot unwinds, toward the 290-300 pre-earnings range. Counter-evidence: rising interest burden and leverage are real fundamental concerns, the analyst PT cut, and today's rebound volume is thin. Invalidation: a break below 264.21 (today's low, under the 10/21 low of 265.72). Sources: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/lithia-motors-lad-stock-sinks-121230952.html ; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LAD/history/
Return: 0.08%; alpha: 0.91%. - SMCI down — confidence 53%. Source session: SMCI rose 9.55% on 10/21 to 35.57 (Yahoo close; some outlets show 9.18%). Catalyst (fact, SEC 8-K dated 10/20 after the close): preliminary FQ1 FY27 revenue of $18.5-19.5B vs prior guidance of $14.5-15.5B, and gross margin of 12.0-12.5% vs 10.4-10.8% guided. Assessment: this is a substantive fundamental beat, not speculation. Even so, the 10/21 bar gapped to 36.42, reached 37.45 and closed at 35.57, in the lower part of its range, on 82.0M shares (about 2.3x average), so the market sold the news intraday. Today SMCI is falling with the AI-hardware complex (Lam Research down about 8% premarket, Tesla capex cut, Nasdaq down about 2.3%): latest_price 33.26 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T14:51:45Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 14:51Z: open 34.44, high 34.92, low 33.11, cumulative volume about 17.7M. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Observed: -6.5% from the 10/21 close, most of it already realized and partly inside the window. Expected after the quote: continued pressure as long as the AI-financing rotation persists, with the stock drifting back toward the pre-announcement 32.47 close and the 30.92 20-day low. Counter-evidence: the beat is large and real, so dip buyers could step in, and the stock is already near the bottom of its 20-session range (45.77-30.92). Invalidation: a reclaim of 35.57 (the 10/21 close) or a semis-led market rebound. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001375365/000137536526000025/smcifirstquarterfy2027busi.htm ; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/history/
Return: -0.52%; alpha: 1.36%. - RCUS up — confidence 50%. Source session: Arcus fell 19.58% on 10/21 to 19.10, closing at its low of 18.98 after opening at 24.47, on 4.57M shares (about 2.4x average). Facts: on 10/20 Arcus presented ARC-20 casdatifan kidney-cancer data at an R&D day; Leerink and Mizuho were positive, and the stock rose about 7% that day. After the 10/21 close it launched an offering, then priced about 14.3M shares at $17.50 (about $250M) (MT Newswires via Yahoo, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus). Assessment (inference): the 10/21 drop was mostly offering anticipation and sell-the-news, not a negative read of the data. The financing extends runway into Phase 3 trials (PEAK-1, PEAK-20), which is a balance-sheet positive once the dilution is absorbed. Intraday evidence: the stock opened at 17.43, essentially at the offering price, and buyers absorbed the supply. latest_price 19.185 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T14:51:45Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCUS/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 14:51Z: open 17.43, high 19.62, low 17.43, cumulative volume about 3.6M. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Observed: about +0.4% vs the 10/21 close but +10% off the open; this is elapsed, not forecast. Expected after the quote: further recovery toward the 20-21 area as the overhang clears, but with low conviction. Counter-evidence: new shares at $17.50 can be flipped into strength, the stock sits about 10% above the deal price, the daily bar closed at the low, and biotech beta in a risk-off tape is unfavorable. Market cap of 2.40B uses the pre-offering share count; it rises with the new shares. Invalidation: a fall back to the $17.50 offering price. Sources: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/arcus-biosciences-prices-250-million-081559876.html ; https://seekingalpha.com/news/4655524-arcus-biosciences-slides-20-on-stock-offering-kidney-cancer-data ; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCUS/history/
Return: -4.76%; alpha: -3.93%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers + OHLC
ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers + OHLC runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg directions called correctly | Avg directional return |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 8 | 60.00% | +1.45% |
| Grok | 1 | 80.00% | +1.42% |
| Perplexity | 7 | 54.29% | +0.98% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3 | 71.67% | +0.96% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 8 | 57.50% | +0.37% |
| DeepSeek | 7 | 51.43% | -0.16% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4 | 35.00% | -0.54% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 3 | 53.33% | -0.69% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2 | 50.00% | -1.19% |
| Grok 4 | 1 | 40.00% | -1.54% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1 | 0.00% | -3.67% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE | 170.56500000 | 176.53000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/ | |
| BE | 225.23910000 | 192.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BE/history/ | |
| BHVN | 15.45000000 | 14.14000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHVN/history/ | |
| CRL | 346.59000000 | 339.84000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRL/history/ | |
| IBM | 247.72000000 | 249.81000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM/history/ | |
| LAD | 284.64000000 | 284.86000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LAD/history/ | |
| LMT | 590.50000000 | 596.38000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/ | |
| LRCX | 239.09500000 | 227.29500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/ | |
| MSTR | 147.86500000 | 144.73000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/history/ | |
| NFLX | 66.36000000 | 66.87500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history/ | |
| RCUS | 19.43500000 | 18.51000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCUS/history/ | |
| SEI | 61.30000000 | 58.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SEI/history/ | |
| SMCI | 33.75500000 | 33.57810000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/history/ | |
| SPOT | 574.93000000 | 582.85000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/history/ | |
| SPY | 765.58000000 | 759.19500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| T | 22.61000000 | 21.47000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/ | |
| TSLA | 386.39000000 | 371.71500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| ZS | 234.54500000 | 243.12010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZS/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11+ohlc3, SHA-256 6a2cd19638dfd604067f2e003f1098b35c17a1234e52b1dee7d358737ddde092. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-ohlc-v1.
Tags
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ChatGPT
Claude
extreme-movers-ohlc
ForecastNest
Gemini
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Muse Spark
Perplexity