Asked Oct 22, 11:16 AM EDT (midday). GPT-6, Claude Opus 5.5, Grok 4.5, Gemini 3 Pro and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 22, 11:16 AM EDT to Oct 23, 11:16 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.10% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.76% | -0.03% | 0.79% |
| Grok 4.5 | 5/5 | 100.00% | 3.09% | -0.03% | 3.12% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.58% | -0.03% | -0.55% |
| DeepSeek | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.85% | -0.03% | 0.88% |
GPT-6
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Favor earnings-supported industrials and defensive healthcare and consumer staples over SPY for this one-session window. The latest benchmark snapshot found was 762.90 at 11:14 AM EDT, down 1.32% from the previous close: https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/. Expected outperformance is an inference about the remaining window; earlier gains are already realized and do not establish future returns. Exact start-window prices were not verified. Allocate 20% to each selection. Quote pages label prices real-time, but retrieved snapshots have different timestamps and may lag.
- LMT — confidence 64.0000%. The strongest substantive catalyst among these candidates: third-quarter sales increased 11%, backlog reached $292 billion, and management raised its full-year free-cash-flow outlook to $7.8–8.0 billion. I expect continued earnings-estimate support and demand for defense exposure to favor LMT over SPY. Much of the news is already reflected in today's rally; the observed retreat from the morning high argues against assuming uninterrupted momentum. Risks include profit-taking, program execution costs and a broad market rebound that favors technology. Reference price is the latest regular-session quote found, labeled real-time, timestamped 11:14 AM EDT on October 22.
Return: 1.41%; alpha: 1.44%. - CSX — confidence 62.0000%. The issuer reported revenue growth of 12%, freight-volume growth of 5%, and operating-income growth of 25% against adjusted prior-year results. This supports a business-driven repricing rather than a purely thematic rally. I expect the operating improvement to sustain relative demand through the remaining window. Today's substantial appreciation already incorporates favorable news, limiting the remaining opportunity. Risks include profit-taking, weaker freight expectations and fuel costs; fuel surcharges contributed to reported revenue growth, so it should not all be interpreted as underlying demand. Reference price is the latest regular-session quote found, labeled real-time, timestamped 11:09 AM EDT on October 22.
Return: -1.42%; alpha: -1.39%. - XLV — confidence 61.0000%. Healthcare provides diversified exposure to the defensive rotation visible in the retrieved quotes: XLV was positive while SPY was negative. My forecast is that this relative resilience persists, rather than that the earlier spread remains available. The issuer confirms that XLV tracks the Health Care Select Sector Index. This is primarily a sector-allocation thesis, without a newly verified fund-wide earnings catalyst. Risks include a reversal toward technology, adverse healthcare-policy headlines and concentration in large pharmaceutical holdings. Reference price is the latest regular-session quote found, labeled real-time, timestamped 11:16 AM EDT on October 22.
Return: -1.16%; alpha: -1.13%. - XLP — confidence 60.0000%. Consumer staples combine observed relative strength with a supportive sector earnings signal: P&G reported 4% organic sales growth and core EPS of $2.00. XLP holds P&G alongside retailers, beverages and other staples businesses, spreading company-specific exposure. I expect continued defensive demand to support outperformance versus SPY after the current quote, although today's advance has already priced in some optimism. Risks include a return to growth-stock leadership, commodity-cost pressure and the fact that P&G maintained its full-year organic-sales and EPS-growth guidance. Reference price is the latest regular-session quote found, labeled real-time, timestamped 11:17 AM EDT on October 22.
Return: -0.56%; alpha: -0.53%. - SPOT — confidence 58.0000%. Spotify reported 306 million premium subscribers and 788 million monthly active users; its company statement says gross margin and operating income exceeded its expectations. These operating results provide a substantive basis for continued relative demand despite broad market weakness. However, the report was mixed: EPS of EUR2.48 missed the EUR2.80 consensus cited by Dow Jones, and operating expenses rose 26%. The large initial rally already reflects considerable optimism. I expect modest further relative strength, with lower confidence because profit-taking and renewed attention to the EPS miss could dominate. Reference price is the latest regular-session quote found, labeled real-time, timestamped 11:11 AM EDT on October 22.
Return: 1.07%; alpha: 1.10%.
Claude Opus 5.5
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Thursday 2026-10-22 is a sharp risk-off session driven by AI-capex and financing worries. Lam Research fell on its guide, Tesla cut capex and META is down about 6% despite a revenue beat. As of about 15:16 UTC (Yahoo Finance live quotes): SPY -1.34%, QQQ -2.48%, SMH -5.37% and XLK -3.19%. Capital is rotating into defensives: staples (XLP +2.20%), health care (XLV +1.54%), telecoms (T +2.26%, VZ +1.94%) and long Treasuries (TLT +1.32% as yields fall). Energy is weak (XLE -2.22%) despite firmer crude. Stocks with clean beat-and-raise earnings are being rewarded in the down tape. The basket tilts toward low-AI-beta names with verified positive earnings catalysts, where post-earnings drift can continue, plus one defensive sector ETF and one software/security name that is showing relative strength. The main risk is a sharp semis and mega-cap tech rebound tomorrow: the basket would likely lag SPY in a high-beta bounce. A single-session horizon is close to a coin flip, so confidence is modest throughout.
- LMT — confidence 56.0000%. Thesis: Lockheed Martin reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised 2026 earnings and revenue guidance before the open (CNBC premarket movers, 10/22). It also announced a new multiyear F-35 production and sustainment framework agreement. The stock is up 6.24% intraday while SPY is down 1.34%. Defense demand is uncorrelated with the AI-capex worries driving today's selloff, and beat-and-raise reports in large caps tend to show some post-earnings drift as analysts revise estimates over the following sessions. Risks: much of the re-rating may already be priced in after a 6% move; some profit-taking is possible in tomorrow's session; and a strong risk-on rebound led by tech would favor SPY. Price: 585.90 USD, live regular-session quote as of about 15:16 UTC on 2026-10-22 via Yahoo Finance. Catalyst source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-tsla-meta-avex-spot.html
Return: 1.41%; alpha: 1.44%. - XLP — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: Consumer staples are the strongest sector today (XLP +2.20% vs SPY -1.34%) as investors rotate out of AI-linked tech amid financing worries, falling Treasury yields (10-year down about 13 bp) and VIX rising to about 19. Defensive rotations tied to a macro theme like AI-capex skepticism often persist for more than one session, and XLP's low beta limits downside if the selloff extends into Friday. Risks: if semis and mega-caps stage a relief rally, staples would likely lag SPY materially, and the rotation is already sharp intraday, raising the risk of a partial unwind. Price: 89.03 USD, live regular-session quote as of about 15:16 UTC on 2026-10-22 via Yahoo Finance.
Return: -0.56%; alpha: -0.53%. - SPOT — confidence 53.0000%. Thesis: Spotify's fourth-quarter revenue guidance came in above analyst expectations, and monthly active users rose 11% year over year to 788 million (CNBC premarket movers, 10/22). The stock is up 8.13% intraday against a falling market. A guidance-driven beat in a consumer platform with little AI-hardware exposure fits today's rotation and supports post-earnings drift as estimates move higher. Risks: SPOT is a higher-beta growth stock, so it could give back gains if growth names keep falling; after an 8% gap, mean reversion over the next session is possible; and the communication services sector (XLC) is weak today because of META. Price: 568.055 USD, live regular-session quote as of about 15:16 UTC on 2026-10-22 via Yahoo Finance. Catalyst source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-tsla-meta-avex-spot.html
Return: 1.07%; alpha: 1.10%. - CSX — confidence 52.0000%. Thesis: CSX reported a third-quarter earnings beat after the 10/21 close (CNBC after-hours movers). The stock is up 6.82% intraday, among the strongest large caps in a down tape. Rails are old-economy, domestically focused businesses with no AI-capex exposure, so they benefit from today's rotation, and an earnings beat in a low-volatility industrial often sees follow-through as estimates are revised. Risks: industrials overall are weak today (XLI -1.75%), so a macro growth scare could weigh on freight names; and the size of the move for a typically low-volatility stock raises the chance of a partial pullback. Price: 51.70 USD, live regular-session quote as of about 15:16 UTC on 2026-10-22 via Yahoo Finance. Catalyst source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-meta-tsla-lrcx-ibm.html
Return: -1.42%; alpha: -1.39%. - ZS — confidence 50.0000%. Thesis: Zscaler rose 7.84% on 10/21 as investors rotated from semiconductors into software and security. That move was helped by NVIDIA's OpenShell AI-agent security architecture, which Zscaler said it will support (Yahoo Finance/StockStory, 10/21). Today ZS is up another 2.79% while QQQ is down 2.48%, trading above its prior 20-session high: strong relative strength and a clean breakout. If the semis-to-software rotation continues, ZS should keep outperforming the index. Risks: ZS is volatile (35 moves of more than 5% over the past year); peers are mixed today (CRWD -0.68%, OKTA -1.82%), so the leadership is narrow; and a broad tech liquidation or a semis-led rebound could both hurt its relative performance. Price: 237.79 USD, live regular-session quote as of about 15:16 UTC on 2026-10-22 via Yahoo Finance. Catalyst source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/zscaler-tenable-shares-soaring-know-204639252.html
Return: 3.27%; alpha: 3.30%.
Grok 4.5
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US equities are lower, led by tech and semiconductors on renewed AI spending concerns after mixed Tesla and Meta results, while crude oil has surged to multi-month highs on Middle East tensions including Saudi strikes and Iran-related risks. Defensive and commodity-linked names are relatively resilient; energy stands out as a clear relative outperformer versus SPY in a risk-off session with elevated oil prices.
- SPOT — confidence 72.0000%. Strong Q3 results and above-consensus Q4 operating-income guidance drove a sharp gap-up and sustained intraday gains of roughly 8-9%. Momentum from the beat and raised outlook should support continued relative strength versus the broader market, which is pressured by AI and growth-stock weakness. Risks include profit-taking after the large move and any broader risk-off spillover if tech selling intensifies.
Return: 1.07%; alpha: 1.10%. - WCN — confidence 70.0000%. Q3 earnings beat and a second raise to full-year 2026 guidance produced a strong open and continued gains near 8%. Waste-management fundamentals and the raised outlook provide a defensive, cash-flow-driven catalyst that is insulated from AI and oil volatility. Risks are limited follow-through if the broader market sells off further or if guidance optimism fades on higher fuel costs.
Return: 2.51%; alpha: 2.54%. - XLE — confidence 68.0000%. Energy sector ETF is positioned to capture the sharp rise in Brent and WTI driven by Middle East supply risks. While the broader market is down, energy has relative support from higher crude; the ETF offers diversified exposure to integrated majors and producers that benefit directly. Risks include any sudden de-escalation headlines that reverse oil prices or general market beta drag.
Return: 4.11%; alpha: 4.14%. - CVX — confidence 65.0000%. Integrated major with direct leverage to the oil price spike; shares have been hitting multi-month highs on geopolitical risk premium. Relative performance versus SPY should remain constructive while crude stays elevated and the market stays risk-off. Risks are profit-taking after recent gains and any reversal in oil if tensions ease.
Return: 3.69%; alpha: 3.72%. - XOM — confidence 64.0000%. Largest integrated oil company benefits from the same crude rally and Middle East risk premium supporting energy majors. It has shown relative resilience amid tech-led declines and offers liquidity and dividend support. Risks include correlation to broader equity weakness and potential oil price pullback on any diplomatic progress.
Return: 4.09%; alpha: 4.12%.
Gemini 3 Pro
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US equity markets exhibit stock-specific momentum dominated by third-quarter corporate earnings releases and corporate licensing catalysts. Broad benchmarks show moderate stability with strong idiosyncratic alpha opportunities across technology, industrial security, and biotech sectors.
- BHVN — confidence 75.0000%. Biohaven Ltd. (BHVN) received a major fundamental catalyst following an out-licensing agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical that yields immediate non-dilutive upfront capital and de-risks cash runway requirements. Live intraday price quote of $15.55 recorded on October 22, 2026. Primary risks include post-gap profit taking.
Return: -4.37%; alpha: -4.34%. - LRCX — confidence 70.0000%. Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) experienced downside acceleration following softer December quarter forward guidance on memory cap-ex spending. Live intraday price quote of $235.98 recorded on October 22, 2026. Fundamental reset in near-term revenue expectations favors persistent relative weakness against SPY. Primary risk is short-covering bounce.
Return: -1.36%; alpha: -1.33%. - IBM — confidence 68.0000%. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) delivered strong Q3 results with outperforming software segment growth (+7-8% guidance increase). Live intraday price quote of $246.59 recorded on October 22, 2026. Solid enterprise AI and cloud software adoption provides multi-session outperformance foundation. Primary risk is broader macro tech pullbacks.
Return: 1.19%; alpha: 1.22%. - ALLE — confidence 66.0000%. Allegion PLC (ALLE) reported Q3 operational results exceeding revenue and EPS expectations driven by robust non-residential security demand across the Americas. Live intraday price quote of $172.31 recorded on October 22, 2026. Sustainable institutional buying supports upward momentum against the SPY benchmark. Primary risk is overhead technical resistance near 52-week highs.
Return: 3.18%; alpha: 3.21%. - TSLA — confidence 64.0000%. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) displays positive technical momentum following a rebound off multi-week support, benefiting from high-beta technology risk-on sentiment. Live intraday price quote of $386.61 recorded on October 22, 2026. Primary risks include macroeconomic interest rate volatility and intraday overhead resistance.
Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.53%.
DeepSeek
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US equities are soft as AI capex concerns and higher oil weigh on index futures, with SPY around $765.50 below Wednesday's range. In this tape, post-earnings gap-up names with raised guidance and low-to-moderate beta are the cleanest candidates to outperform SPY over the next session, though most are already extended intraday.
- LMT — confidence 72.0000%. Lockheed Martin reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.97 versus the $7.52 consensus and revenue of $20.7 billion, up 11% year over year, then raised full-year EPS guidance to $30.35-$30.75 with a midpoint above consensus. The stock was $586.72 in a live Yahoo Finance regular-session quote at 11:16 EDT on 2026-10-22, up 6.38% from the prior close of $551.51, and remains below the $618.86 mean target. The low beta and record backlog make it a relative safe haven if SPY stays under pressure, but the main risk is that the gap already captures much of the beat and the shares could consolidate intraday. Quote freshness: live regular-session price, about 0 minutes stale at the prediction timestamp.
Return: 1.41%; alpha: 1.44%. - ALLE — confidence 70.0000%. Allegion reported Q3 2026 revenue of $1.17 billion, up 9.6% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $2.60, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.05-$9.10 from $8.85-$9.00. The stock was $173.49 in a live Yahoo Finance regular-session quote at 11:16 EDT on 2026-10-22, up 9.11% from the prior close of $159.00 and near its 52-week high of $183.11, with the mean target at $178.00. The beat-and-raise is substantive, but the risk is that a one-day 9% gap in a cyclical name attracts profit-taking if the broader market weakens. Quote freshness: live regular-session price, about 0 minutes stale at the prediction timestamp.
Return: 3.18%; alpha: 3.21%. - CSX — confidence 67.0000%. CSX reported record Q3 2026 revenue of $4.02 billion, up 12% year over year, adjusted EPS of $0.57 versus the $0.53 consensus, a 39.1% operating margin and 5% volume growth, and raised full-year guidance. The stock was $51.71 in a live Yahoo Finance regular-session quote at 11:17 EDT on 2026-10-22, up 6.83% from the prior close of $48.40, with the mean target at $53.36. The risk is that rail volumes are economically sensitive and the gap is already large; if SPY selling intensifies, CSX's beta of 1.20 could work against relative performance. Quote freshness: live regular-session price, about 0 minutes stale at the prediction timestamp.
Return: -1.42%; alpha: -1.39%. - ROP — confidence 65.0000%. Roper Technologies reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.89 versus the $5.79 consensus, revenue of $2.17 billion in line with expectations, 8% total revenue growth and 7% organic growth, and raised full-year adjusted DEPS guidance to $22.35-$22.40 from $22.15-$22.30. The stock was $422.65 in a live Yahoo Finance regular-session quote at 11:14 EDT on 2026-10-22, up 6.30% from the prior close of $397.56, with the mean target at $439.43. The beat-and-raise supports the move, but partial-session volume was only about 292,000 shares versus a 792,000 full-day average, so intraday volume confirmation is not yet established. Quote freshness: live regular-session price, about 2 minutes stale at the prediction timestamp.
Return: 3.73%; alpha: 3.76%. - PG — confidence 63.0000%. Procter & Gamble reported fiscal Q1 2027 EPS of $2.00 versus the $1.89 estimate and revenue that supported a 5.8% premarket-to-intraday rally, with the stock near its 52-week high of $167.25. The stock was $165.94 in a live Yahoo Finance regular-session quote at 11:13 EDT on 2026-10-22, up 5.80% from the prior close of $156.84. The defensive demand profile and beta of 0.38 make PG a relative shelter if SPY remains weak, but the mean target of $162.13 is below the current price, so analyst-implied upside is limited and the rally may be vulnerable to profit-taking. Quote freshness: live regular-session price, about 3 minutes stale at the prediction timestamp.
Return: -2.67%; alpha: -2.64%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.05% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 4 | 40.00% | -0.07% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 8 | 47.50% | -0.14% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | 41.43% | -0.16% |
| Grok 4.5 | 21 | 42.86% | -0.32% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3 | 40.00% | -0.32% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| GPT-6 | 13 | 26.15% | -0.43% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 22 | 40.00% | -0.48% |
| DeepSeek | 22 | 43.64% | -0.69% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 1 | 60.00% | -0.78% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Perplexity | 10 | 34.00% | -0.98% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 0.00% | -2.53% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE | 173.47000000 | 178.98500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/ | |
| BHVN | 15.00500000 | 14.35000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHVN/history/ | |
| CSX | 51.72000000 | 50.98500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSX/history/ | |
| CVX | 223.93000000 | 232.19500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/ | |
| IBM | 248.73500000 | 251.70000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM/history/ | |
| LMT | 586.72000000 | 595.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/ | |
| LRCX | 233.71000000 | 230.53000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/ | |
| PG | 166.11000000 | 161.67000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG/history/ | |
| ROP | 421.78000000 | 437.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROP/history/ | |
| SPOT | 568.62000000 | 574.69000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/history/ | |
| SPY | 762.90000000 | 762.66990000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSLA | 382.25500000 | 376.30000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| WCN | 182.08000000 | 186.64500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WCN/history/ | |
| XLE | 66.61000000 | 69.34500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLP | 89.02000000 | 88.52500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/ | |
| XLV | 181.72000000 | 179.62000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLV/history/ | |
| XOM | 175.49500000 | 182.68000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ | |
| ZS | 237.92000000 | 245.70010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZS/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 e0ec9af6ae2f87ef368519c5176657d5182e62fe855f031c47fa2a705b668ded. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.