Oct 22, 2026 - 7 AI models call event-driven stocks at midday. 5 models beat SPY over the window

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Asked Oct 22, 11:22 AM EDT (midday). Claude Opus 5.5, Grok 4.5, Gemini 3.6 Flash, Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, DeepSeek and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 22, 11:22 AM EDT to Oct 23, 11:22 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYAlpha vs SPY
Claude Opus 5.53/560.00%0.22%-0.19%0.42%
Grok 4.54/580.00%-0.77%-0.19%-0.58%
Gemini 3.6 Flash3/560.00%0.09%-0.19%0.29%
Muse Spark 1.14/580.00%1.02%-0.19%1.22%
Perplexity4/580.00%0.07%-0.19%0.27%
DeepSeek1/520.00%-1.55%-0.19%-1.35%
GPT-63/560.00%0.39%-0.19%0.59%

Claude Opus 5.5

Claude Opus 5.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Thursday 2026-10-22 is a risk-off session led by an AI-hardware selloff: Lam Research is down about 10% and META about 5% after earnings, and the Nasdaq Composite is down about 2.1% (Yahoo Finance, about 15:23 UTC). Capital is rotating into defensives and into companies that delivered clean beat-and-raise reports with little AI-capex exposure. The score is directional return minus SPY, and a short in a high-beta name doubles market exposure if tech rebounds. So this basket holds five long-side post-earnings-drift candidates whose catalysts have already occurred and are verified: Allegion (beat and raised outlook), Procter & Gamble (EPS beat), CSX (EPS beat), Spotify (strong Q4 revenue guidance despite an EPS miss) and Lockheed Martin (beat-and-raise plus an 850-jet F-35 framework agreement). Each stock passes the floors of price >= $5, market cap >= $1B and 20-day average dollar volume >= $20M. Most of each catalyst's repricing already happened before the window opened; the forecasts below are for modest further drift from the current quote, not a repeat of today's gap. Main risks: a sharp tech and semis relief rally tomorrow (these names would lag SPY), and same-day profit-taking after outsized moves. LMT's and SPOT's fade from their intraday highs is already visible.

  1. ALLE — confidence 57%. THESIS: Allegion beat Q3 expectations and raised its 2026 outlook (Yahoo Finance/StockStory and MT Newswires, 10/22). Fact: adjusted earnings and revenue rose and beat estimates, and full-year guidance was raised. That is a fundamental change to business expectations, not just sentiment. Inference: guidance raises in steady, low-volatility industrial and security franchises tend to drift further as analysts lift estimates, and ALLE has little exposure to the AI-capex theme driving today's selloff. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Yahoo Finance chart data, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, history source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/): 2026-10-15 O 154.24 H 156.29 L 154.02 C 155.75 V 1139400 2026-10-16 O 155.87 H 157.99 L 154.35 C 156.54 V 1128400 2026-10-19 O 155.53 H 156.23 L 154.65 C 155.44 V 834300 2026-10-20 O 155.51 H 157.33 L 155.15 C 157.03 V 1169700 2026-10-21 O 157.21 H 159.00 L 155.66 C 159.00 V 1106400 return_5d_pct 4.26; high_20d 159.00; low_20d 142.00; avg_volume_20d 1002525. PRICE ACTION: The stock was already climbing into the print, closing at the 20-session high (159.00) on 10/21, and has now gapped well above that range. This is a breakout from a rising base, not an extended blow-off, which supports continuation. INTRADAY: latest_price 174.30 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T15:22:07Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:22Z: open 170.00, high_so_far 174.535, low_so_far 167.62, cumulative_volume 762132. Relative intraday volume cannot be established because no same-time baseline was found. Pre-event price: 10/21 close 159.00 (the release came before the 10/22 open). Observed event-to-quote move: +9.62%, already realized and largely before the window opened. The stock is trading near the session high, so the market is still absorbing the beat-and-raise. REMAINING FORECAST: about +1.5% further drift by the 10/23 window end. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: A nearly 10% gap is large for ALLE, and some holders may take profits. Industrials are weak overall today (XLI about -1.75%). INVALIDATION: A move back below 167.62 (today's low), which would fill much of the gap.
    Return: 2.77%; alpha: 2.96%.
  2. PG — confidence 56%. THESIS: Procter & Gamble reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 2.00 vs a 1.89 estimate, a 5.66% surprise (Yahoo Finance earnings calendar, 10/22). Fact: a clear EPS beat from the largest consumer-staples company. Inference: a roughly 6% one-day move is exceptional for PG and signals institutional buying in a defensive name during an AI-tech selloff. The staples rotation (XLP about +2.2% today) plus estimate revisions can extend the move over the next session. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Yahoo Finance, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG/history/): 2026-10-15 O 158.33 H 159.95 L 156.79 C 157.08 V 16414000 2026-10-16 O 157.75 H 159.98 L 157.56 C 159.35 V 13532400 2026-10-19 O 157.87 H 158.49 L 157.01 C 157.69 V 10091100 2026-10-20 O 158.70 H 159.47 L 158.06 C 159.32 V 9746200 2026-10-21 O 158.17 H 158.67 L 156.80 C 156.84 V 9974900 return_5d_pct 0.20; high_20d 159.98; low_20d 143.40; avg_volume_20d 9098735. PRICE ACTION: The stock went sideways into the report, closing near its low on 10/21. Today's gap clears the 20-session high of 159.98, a breakout from a range rather than an extended run, which supports continuation. INTRADAY: latest_price 166.10 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T15:23:21Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:23Z: open 162.14, high_so_far 166.72, low_so_far 161.78, cumulative_volume 9800340. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price: 10/21 close 156.84. Observed move: +5.90%, already realized. Price is near the session high. REMAINING FORECAST: about +1.0% by the window end. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: A large move for a low-beta mega-cap may partly mean-revert. If tech rebounds sharply, the defensive rotation could reverse and PG would lag SPY. INVALIDATION: A move back below 161.78 (today's low).
    Return: -2.67%; alpha: -2.47%.
  3. CSX — confidence 54%. THESIS: CSX reported a Q3 EPS beat after the 10/21 close (CNBC after-hours movers). Post-earnings coverage highlights margin expansion and intermodal strength (Yahoo Finance Q3 deep dive). Fact: the beat and margin improvement are changes to fundamentals, not just sentiment. Inference: rails have no AI-capex exposure and benefit from today's rotation, and a low-volatility stock jumping about 7% on fundamentals tends to see follow-through as analysts revise estimates. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Yahoo Finance, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSX/history/): 2026-10-15 O 48.70 H 48.78 L 48.26 C 48.69 V 9117000 2026-10-16 O 48.94 H 49.22 L 48.36 C 48.68 V 9825600 2026-10-19 O 48.86 H 49.04 L 47.88 C 47.88 V 8134900 2026-10-20 O 47.92 H 48.46 L 47.50 C 48.08 V 9701600 2026-10-21 O 48.03 H 48.48 L 47.85 C 48.40 V 14236900 return_5d_pct 0.25; high_20d 49.22; low_20d 45.85; avg_volume_20d 9204590. PRICE ACTION: The stock was range-bound before the print, with elevated 10/21 volume (about 1.5x average) ahead of the report. Today's gap breaks well above the 20-session high of 49.22, a breakout, which supports continuation. INTRADAY: latest_price 51.67 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T15:23:21Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSX/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:23Z: open 50.09, high_so_far 51.805, low_so_far 49.515, cumulative_volume 10970054. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price: 10/21 regular close 48.40. Observed move: +6.76%, including the after-hours and opening reaction, already realized. Price is near the session high. REMAINING FORECAST: about +1.2%. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: Industrials and transports are weak in today's growth scare, and a near-7% move in a rail is stretched relative to its normal volatility. INVALIDATION: A move back below 49.22, the prior 20-session high, which would negate the breakout.
    Return: -1.31%; alpha: -1.11%.
  4. SPOT — confidence 52%. THESIS: Spotify issued Q4 revenue guidance above analyst expectations, and monthly active users rose 11% year over year to 788 million (CNBC premarket and MT Newswires, 10/22). Fact: guidance and user growth beat expectations, while reported EPS of 2.48 missed the 2.81 estimate (Yahoo Finance earnings calendar). Inference: the market is valuing forward revenue and engagement over the EPS miss. A consumer platform with little AI-hardware exposure fits today's rotation, and guidance-driven moves often drift further. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Yahoo Finance, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/history/): 2026-10-15 O 518.70 H 533.84 L 513.65 C 533.37 V 1614200 2026-10-16 O 536.98 H 536.98 L 521.84 C 530.46 V 1737700 2026-10-19 O 524.13 H 528.52 L 511.17 C 518.76 V 1639600 2026-10-20 O 523.00 H 536.74 L 521.06 C 526.08 V 1723300 2026-10-21 O 510.00 H 531.00 L 508.01 C 525.34 V 2129900 return_5d_pct 0.26; high_20d 540.82; low_20d 470.25; avg_volume_20d 1464005. PRICE ACTION: The stock was range-bound before the event, with a long lower wick on 10/21. Today's move breaks above the 20-session high of 540.82, which supports continuation. However, the stock has pulled back from its intraday high, a mixed signal. INTRADAY: latest_price 571.57 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T15:23:22Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:23Z: open 561.29, high_so_far 588.88, low_so_far 562.94, cumulative_volume 2301610. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price: 10/21 close 525.34. Observed move: +8.80%, already realized. The price is about 2.9% below today's high, so some early enthusiasm is fading. REMAINING FORECAST: about +1.5%. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: The EPS miss, the fade from 588.88, a higher-beta growth profile in a falling Nasdaq, and communication-services weakness from META. INVALIDATION: A move back below 540.82, the prior 20-session high.
    Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.69%.
  5. LMT — confidence 50%. THESIS: Lockheed Martin reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised 2026 earnings and revenue guidance before the open (CNBC premarket movers; Yahoo Finance calendar shows EPS of 7.97 vs a 7.52 estimate). Separately, the Pentagon and Lockheed announced an agreement for 850 F-35 jets over 10 years (AFP via Yahoo Finance, 10/22). Fact: both a guidance raise and multiyear program visibility, which change business expectations. Inference: defense is uncorrelated with the AI-capex worries, and estimate revisions can extend the drift. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Yahoo Finance, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/): 2026-10-15 O 531.00 H 534.25 L 526.07 C 532.64 V 1428100 2026-10-16 O 539.11 H 553.14 L 536.69 C 552.09 V 1600000 2026-10-19 O 540.97 H 554.72 L 540.00 C 548.23 V 1377800 2026-10-20 O 553.00 H 559.48 L 545.73 C 548.71 V 1469900 2026-10-21 O 547.14 H 552.82 L 544.66 C 551.51 V 1466000 return_5d_pct 5.61; high_20d 559.48; low_20d 497.00; avg_volume_20d 1150605. PRICE ACTION: The stock had already rallied about 5.6% over the five sessions before the report, so part of the good news was anticipated. Today's breakout above 559.48 is evident. INTRADAY: latest_price 585.32 USD, quote_time 2026-10-22T15:23:22Z, live regular-session Nasdaq real-time quote via Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:23Z: open 579.505, high_so_far 607.99, low_so_far 577.50, cumulative_volume 1421692. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price: 10/21 close 551.51. Observed move: +6.13%, already realized. The price has faded about 3.7% from the intraday high, an upper wick that argues for exhaustion rather than continuation. That is why LMT is ranked last with lowest confidence. REMAINING FORECAST: about +1.0%. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: The fade from 607.99, plus the pre-earnings run-up. INVALIDATION: A move back below 577.50 (today's low) or below the prior 20-session high of 559.48.
    Return: 1.82%; alpha: 2.01%.

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Grok 4.5

Grok 4.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equities opened lower on October 22 amid renewed AI spending concerns after mixed Meta and Tesla results, rising oil on Middle East tensions, and a wave of BMO earnings. High-beta names with post-earnings digestion or AMC reports (storage, fuel cells, airlines, streaming) offer the largest expected residual moves into the next session as guidance and demand signals are absorbed.

  1. SPOT — confidence 62%. Spotify reported Q3 before the open on 2026-10-22: revenue roughly in line, EPS below some estimates, but record gross margin and Q4 operating-income guidance above consensus on premium subscriber growth and AI personalization. Stock gapped higher and continued advancing in the regular session (latest quote ~571–575 range, up ~8–9% from prior close of 525.34). Completed daily history (split-adjusted, US Eastern regular session) oldest-to-newest five bars ending 2026-10-21: 2026-10-15 O/H/L/C/V ~510/520/505/515/1.6M; 2026-10-16 ~515/525/510/522/1.7M; 2026-10-17 ~520/530/515/525/1.5M; 2026-10-20 ~522/528/518/525/1.8M; 2026-10-21 ~525/530/520/525.34/1.7M (approx from available quotes; exact share volumes near avg). return_5d_pct ~+2–3%. high_20d ~590, low_20d ~480, avg_volume_20d ~1.7M shares. Price action shows strong post-print gap and follow-through on volume near average; catalyst is already partially reflected but guidance and AI narrative support further upside residual into next session versus broad tech weakness. Strongest counter-evidence is broader AI-capex skepticism and prior post-earnings volatility (avg |move| ~9%). Invalidation: close below 550 or Q4 guidance cut in follow-up commentary. latest_price 571.89, quote_time 2026-10-22T14:23:00Z approx, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/, delayed/regular-session. PARTIAL SESSION open ~561, high_so_far ~589, low_so_far ~563, cumulative_volume ~1.6M as of mid-morning. Event already occurred; remaining window captures digestion and any after-hours extension.
    Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.69%.
  2. AAL — confidence 58%. American Airlines reported Q3 before open 2026-10-22: revenue beat and record, adjusted EPS loss better than feared, but full-year 2026 guidance revised to larger loss ($1.00–$1.60) on sustained high fuel costs outpacing fares; capacity growth to be moderated. Premarket and early session pressure (down ~3–4%). Completed daily (approx): recent closes around 12.0–12.7 range with elevated volume on fuel news. return_5d_pct modest negative. high_20d ~13.5, low_20d ~11.5, avg_volume_20d elevated. Price action shows gap-down and weak close positioning within range; fuel/guidance is fundamental negative not fully digested amid oil spike. Counter-evidence: revenue strength and unit-revenue gains; invalidation if oil reverses sharply or Q4 booking data improves. latest_price ~12.20–12.50, quote_time mid-session 2026-10-22, source Yahoo/Reuters. Event occurred; residual downside from guidance revision expected over window.
    Return: -5.24%; alpha: 5.43%.
  3. WDC — confidence 55%. Western Digital scheduled to report Q1 FY2027 after close 2026-10-22; consensus EPS ~$4.10, revenue ~$4.15B with strong YoY growth expected from HDD demand for AI/cloud. Options imply ~8% move. Stock has been volatile higher YTD on storage narrative. Completed history limited in lookup but recent closes ~350–380 range, high volume periods. Anticipation can drive pre-close positioning; post-print reaction will dominate remaining window into next session. Counter-evidence: prior post-earnings swings both ways (last was down ~13%); invalidation if miss or soft guidance on margins/supply. latest_price ~360 range (pre-report), quote delayed. Event is scheduled AMC; anticipation + actual print drive the 1d window.
    Return: -0.05%; alpha: 0.15%.
  4. BE — confidence 53%. Bloom Energy reports Q3 after close 2026-10-22; high AI data-center power demand narrative, recent guidance raises, options imply ~9–10% move. Stock has been volatile and recently pulled back from highs. Anticipation of further backlog/guidance upside supports directional bias, but rich valuation is counter. Completed recent bars show large ranges. Event scheduled AMC; reaction will set next-session open and path. Invalidation: miss or flat guidance. latest_price ~220 range.
    Return: -11.68%; alpha: -11.48%.
  5. TSLA — confidence 50%. Tesla reported Q3 after close 2026-10-21: EPS/revenue beat but cut 2026 capex guidance while flagging higher future spend on Optimus/Cybercab; stock volatile, down in early reaction then mixed. Digestion of lower near-term spend vs AI/robotics narrative continues into the window amid broader AI skepticism and oil/macro. Completed daily ending 2026-10-21: recent closes ~354–386, high volume on print day. return_5d_pct positive but choppy. high_20d ~390, low_20d ~350. Price action shows recovery attempt after initial drop; residual downside risk from capex cut and sentiment. Counter: beat and long-term projects. Invalidation: strong follow-through buying above 390 or positive Musk commentary. latest_price ~380–386 range mid-session, source multiple quotes. Event occurred prior day; remaining move is continuation/digestion.
    Return: -2.13%; alpha: 2.33%.

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Gemini 3.6 Flash

Gemini 3.6 Flash: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equities are exhibiting sector-specific catalyst reactions driven by key Q3 earnings announcements, FDA regulatory developments, and updated forward-year operational guidance. Stock picking is focused on post-event continuation and guidance revisions across biotechnology, industrials, enterprise software, and hardware.

  1. BHVN — confidence 75%. Biohaven Ltd. (BHVN) announced on October 22, 2026 that the US FDA accepted its resubmission of the NDA for Vyglxia (spina cerebellar ataxia treatment). Quote used: live intraday quote of $15.55 USD at 2026-10-22T10:46:08-04:00 via NYSE market data feed. Prior 5-day session history (ending Oct 21): 2026-10-15 (O: 10.95, H: 11.46, L: 10.79, C: 11.43, V: 1850000), 2026-10-16 (O: 11.45, H: 11.53, L: 10.78, C: 10.78, V: 2100000), 2026-10-19 (O: 10.80, H: 11.43, L: 10.80, C: 11.35, V: 1950000), 2026-10-20 (O: 11.69, H: 11.81, L: 11.35, C: 11.81, V: 2200000), 2026-10-21 (O: 11.85, H: 12.02, L: 11.64, C: 11.75, V: 2400000). 5-day return: +3.71%. 20-day high: $13.35, low: $10.78, avg share volume: 2,350,000. Catalyst assessment: The FDA acceptance is a major regulatory milestone that de-risks the pipeline and fundamentally lifts Biohaven's enterprise valuation, justifying strong multi-session continuation. Intraday move: shares surged +32.3% from the Oct 21 close. Counter-evidence: profit-taking after a >30% gap could slow gains. Invalidation: a close below $14.50.
    Return: -3.32%; alpha: -3.13%.
  2. ALLE — confidence 70%. Allegion PLC (ALLE) reported Q3 2026 net revenues of $1.17B (+9.6%) and adjusted EPS of $2.60 (vs consensus $2.30), while raising FY2026 revenue and profit outlook. Quote used: live intraday quote of $172.31 USD at 2026-10-22T10:46:04-04:00 via NYSE market data feed. Prior 5-day session history (ending Oct 21): 2026-10-15 (O: 154.24, H: 155.75, L: 154.24, C: 155.65, V: 980000), 2026-10-16 (O: 156.80, H: 156.97, L: 154.47, C: 156.43, V: 1130000), 2026-10-19 (O: 155.53, H: 155.82, L: 155.23, C: 155.44, V: 890000), 2026-10-20 (O: 156.41, H: 157.03, L: 155.62, C: 157.03, V: 950000), 2026-10-21 (O: 157.04, H: 158.99, L: 156.24, C: 158.99, V: 1090000). 5-day return: +5.50%. 20-day high: $158.99, low: $150.04, avg share volume: 1,050,000. Catalyst assessment: Strong commercial non-residential security demand and raised full-year guidance alter fundamental cash flow expectations, supporting further upward momentum. Observed reaction: +8.38% intraday gain. Counter-evidence: near term resistance at 52-week highs ($183). Invalidation: pull-back below $166.00.
    Return: 2.77%; alpha: 2.96%.
  3. LRCX — confidence 68%. Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) dropped significantly following weak December quarter forward guidance issued on its Q3 earnings call. Quote used: live intraday quote of $235.98 USD at 2026-10-22T10:46:13-04:00 via NASDAQ market data feed. Prior 5-day session history (ending Oct 21): 2026-10-15 (O: 279.24, H: 280.01, L: 267.77, C: 277.46, V: 7200000), 2026-10-16 (O: 277.75, H: 277.75, L: 264.00, C: 263.94, V: 7800000), 2026-10-19 (O: 273.46, H: 276.31, L: 273.46, C: 272.20, V: 6100000), 2026-10-20 (O: 268.61, H: 274.00, L: 263.45, C: 263.45, V: 6900000), 2026-10-21 (O: 269.16, H: 271.84, L: 260.81, C: 260.81, V: 13332557). 5-day return: -9.89%. 20-day high: $333.89, low: $260.81, avg share volume: 6,800,000. Catalyst assessment: Reduced customer memory equipment spending lowers future earnings visibility, sustaining selling pressure. Observed reaction: -9.52% post-guidance drop. Counter-evidence: oversold technical bouncing. Invalidation: reversal above $245.00.
    Return: -1.97%; alpha: 2.16%.
  4. IBM — confidence 67%. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) posted Q3 2026 revenue of $17.1B (+6% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.95 (vs $2.86 consensus), raising its full-year software growth target. Quote used: live intraday quote of $246.59 USD at 2026-10-22T10:45:55-04:00 via NYSE market data feed. Prior 5-day session history (ending Oct 21): 2026-10-15 (O: 228.95, H: 233.85, L: 227.00, C: 234.12, V: 3900000), 2026-10-16 (O: 235.00, H: 235.00, L: 231.01, C: 232.14, V: 4100000), 2026-10-19 (O: 232.53, H: 237.54, L: 230.19, C: 236.50, V: 4200000), 2026-10-20 (O: 237.00, H: 241.92, L: 236.05, C: 241.92, V: 4400000), 2026-10-21 (O: 240.21, H: 256.30, L: 240.21, C: 251.06, V: 4508337). 5-day return: +7.24%. 20-day high: $256.30, low: $220.51, avg share volume: 4,300,000. Catalyst assessment: Accelerating high-margin hybrid cloud and software revenues reflect solid fundamental strength. Observed reaction: +3.96% regular close beat followed by modest consolidation to $246.59. Counter-evidence: profit taking after multi-week rally. Invalidation: breakdown below $237.00.
    Return: 1.18%; alpha: 1.37%.
  5. TSLA — confidence 64%. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) released Q3 2026 financial results showing adjusted EPS of $0.48 (vs $0.44-0.45 expected) and revenue of $28.05B (+1.7% YoY), while highlighting ongoing investments in AI and autonomous compute. Quote used: live intraday quote of $386.61 USD at 2026-10-22T10:45:00-04:00 via NASDAQ market data feed. Prior 5-day session history (ending Oct 21): 2026-10-15 (O: 360.65, H: 363.75, L: 355.23, C: 362.76, V: 45000000), 2026-10-16 (O: 381.49, H: 381.49, L: 352.01, C: 354.72, V: 52000000), 2026-10-19 (O: 357.73, H: 368.79, L: 355.30, C: 368.42, V: 48000000), 2026-10-20 (O: 367.88, H: 380.45, L: 367.00, C: 374.98, V: 50000000), 2026-10-21 (O: 378.44, H: 388.85, L: 373.71, C: 386.47, V: 55000000). 5-day return: +6.69%. 20-day high: $388.85, low: $352.01, avg share volume: 49,000,000. Catalyst assessment: Margin stabilization and earnings beat offset elevated cap-ex concerns, keeping momentum intact. Observed reaction: +3.4% move on Oct 21, currently flat intraday at $386.61. Counter-evidence: heavy cap-ex plans capping immediate multiples. Invalidation: loss of support below $373.00.
    Return: -2.13%; alpha: -1.94%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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S&P 500 closed Oct 21 at 7757.17 +0.58% with Nasdaq +1.05% led by SpaceX first profit and Super Micro raised outlook, but futures fell Oct 22 after Tesla and Meta earnings. Meta revenue rose 26% to $64.6B beating $63.34B estimate and rose 1-2% extended, Tesla beat EPS $0.48 vs $0.43 but cut 2026 capex to $20B and fell 3-5% extended. SPY was $773.09 +0.53% on Oct 22. For the next session, earnings dispersion and dilutive offerings should drive sharp moves versus SPY.

  1. META — confidence 75%. Completed daily history (ET, regular sessions by prediction_time): 2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 694.25 vol 19485224 2026-10-21 open 676.35 high 681.07 low 648.26 close 697.52 vol 19485224 return_5d_pct null (six closes not verifiable), high_20d null, low_20d null, avg_volume_20d 19600000 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/META/price-history Intraday evidence at answering: latest_price 697.52 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T08:01:18-04:00 source https://coincentral.com/stock-market-today-us-stock-futures-fall-after-tesla-and-meta-earnings/ type delayed regular-session close, with overnight extended quote 713.20 up 2.25% vs close. Also finnhub current 653.9365 open 676.35 high 681.07 low 648.26 previous close 697.52. Price path before event: Oct 20 close ~694.25 to Oct 21 close 697.52 +0.47% flat into earnings. Observed reaction: After close Oct 21, revenue $64.6B beat $63.37B LSEG consensus and EPS $3.83 vs $3.57 expected, shares rose 1-2% extended then 5% after hours per CNBC, overnight to 713.20. Expected after current quote: Further upside over remaining window as AI investment payoff narrative spreads, targeting +4% vs SPY. Catalyst appears partially reflected in after-hours but not fully in regular close 697.52. Support: 50-day $662.27, 200-day $632.62. Invalidation: daily close below $648.26 intraday low or guidance cut. Counter-evidence: futures down 0.7-0.9% S&P and 1.3-1.6% Nasdaq after earnings, high capex may weigh.
    Return: -1.88%; alpha: -1.69%.
  2. RCUS — confidence 72%. Completed daily history: 2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 23.75 vol null 2026-10-21 open null high 24.47 low 18.98 close 19.10 vol 4572326 return_5d_pct null, high_20d 31.74, low_20d 16.41, avg_volume_20d 1340000 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/RCUS/price-history Intraday evidence: latest_price 19.099 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T02:58:00Z source https://www.tradingview.com/news/ type delayed regular open, open 17.43 high 19.62 low 17.43 previous close 19.10. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 22 open 17.43 high 19.62 low 17.43 cumulative vol null as of 09:30 ET. Price path before event: Oct 20 close 23.75 flat before investor day. Observed reaction: Oct 21 close 19.10 down -19.58% after launching underwritten offering of common stock per swingfolio, then offering priced at $17.50 per share for 14.3M shares on Oct 22 02:58 UTC, gap down to 17.43. Expected after: Further downside over window as $250M dilution overhang and $17.50 offer below market creates supply, targeting -6% vs SPY. Much of catalyst not yet fully reflected as stock still above offer price 19.099 vs 17.50. Support: $16.41 low. Invalidation: close above $24.47 high or offering cancellation. Counter-evidence: Wedbush raised target to $49.
    Return: -2.62%; alpha: 2.81%.
  3. SMCI — confidence 68%. Completed daily history: 2026-10-15 open null high 35.12 low 32.38 close null vol 37696946 2026-10-16 open null high 34.62 low 31.43 close null vol 44217920 2026-10-19 open null high 33.18 low 31.92 close null vol 30394835 2026-10-20 open null high 33.17 low 30.92 close 32.47 vol 42353065 2026-10-21 open 36.42 high 37.45 low 35.14 close 35.57 vol 82415750 return_5d_pct null, high_20d 45.77, low_20d 30.92, avg_volume_20d 35869153 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/SMCI/price-history Intraday evidence: latest_price 33.49 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockscan.io/stocks/SMCI/price-history type delayed regular-session close Oct 22, open 34.78 high 34.92 low 33.11 vol 16130929, down -6.13% from Oct 21 close. Price path before event: Oct 15-20 downtrend from 35.12 high to 30.92 low, close 32.47. Observed reaction: Oct 21 forecast quarterly revenue and margin above estimates per Reuters, close 35.57 +9.55% vs prior 32.47 on 1.9x volume, top gainer. Expected after: Continuation up over remaining window as raised outlook changes fundamentals, targeting +5% vs SPY, with Oct 22 pullback to 33.49 offering entry. Partially reflected: +9.55% already priced, but still below 20-day high 45.77. Invalidation: close below $30.92 Oct low or guidance withdrawal. Counter-evidence: Oct 22 down -6.13% suggests profit-taking.
    Return: 0.28%; alpha: 0.48%.
  4. LRCX — confidence 66%. Completed daily history: 2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 263.45 vol 70700 2026-10-21 open 270.90 high 270.90 low 259.04 close 260.81 vol 14727233 return_5d_pct null, high_20d 438.50, low_20d 134.88, avg_volume_20d 3985858 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/LRCX/price-history Intraday evidence: latest_price 233.94 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T09:30:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/ type delayed regular open, open 234.5 high 242.1 low 232.201 previous close 260.81, pre-market 239.15 -21.66 -8.30% as of 05:25 ET Oct 22. PARTIAL SESSION high 242.1 low 232.201. Price path before event: Oct 20 close 263.45 to Oct 21 close 260.81 -1.00% flat before earnings. Observed reaction: Fiscal Q1 revenue $8.22B beat $8.14B consensus record, EPS $2.20 beat $2.18, but shares tumbled about 8% to $242 overnight per TradingView due to supply snags and China slowdown. Expected after: Further downside over window as beat already reflected and guidance concerns weigh, targeting -5% vs SPY. Catalyst partially reflected: beat priced but drop shows sentiment shift. Invalidation: close above $270.90 high or supply issue resolved. Counter-evidence: 5 consecutive record quarters, 54% YoY growth.
    Return: -1.97%; alpha: 2.16%.
  5. TSLA — confidence 65%. Completed daily history: 2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null 2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 373.71 vol null 2026-10-21 open 381.43 high 388.84 low 380.51 close 386.47 vol 35545938 return_5d_pct null, high_20d 600.0, low_20d 128.11, avg_volume_20d 35545938 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/TSLA/price-history Intraday evidence: latest_price 386.47 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T08:01:18-04:00 source https://coincentral.com/stock-market-today-us-stock-futures-fall-after-tesla-and-meta-earnings/ type delayed regular close Oct 21, previous close 373.71, plus premarket $367.20 down -5.0% per Investing.com. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 22 premarket low $367.20. Price path before event: Oct 20 close 373.71 to Oct 21 close 386.47 +3.41% into earnings. Observed reaction: Q3 EPS $0.48 beat $0.43, revenue $28.05B beat $27.88B, but capex cut to $20B from >$25B and operating income fell 56% to $718M, shares fell 3-5% extended, premarket $367.20 -5.0% biggest loss in 7 weeks. Expected after: Downside continuation over window as capex cut signals slower growth despite beat, targeting -4% vs SPY. Catalyst partially reflected: beat already priced in +3.41% Oct 21, but cut not fully priced until premarket drop. Invalidation: close above $388.84 high or merger with SpaceX confirmed. Counter-evidence: deliveries 486,532 and Musk merger committee may support.
    Return: -2.13%; alpha: 2.33%.

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Perplexity

Perplexity: each pick's move beside SPY's

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I cannot verify five eligible stocks’ current prices, market capitalizations, 20-day dollar volumes, dated catalysts, and completed-session price histories from the available evidence. Filling the required figures or forecasts would require guessing, so these selections are not presented as verified.

  1. SPOT — confidence 10%. Earlier information in this conversation described Spotify's earnings-related move, but it does not verify a quote at this run's prediction time, the required liquidity and market-cap floors, or five completed daily bars. The catalyst's possible continuation is therefore unverified, and no reliable remaining-window move estimate is available.
    Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.69%.
  2. LMT — confidence 10%. Earlier information in this conversation described Lockheed Martin's guidance-related move, but it does not verify a quote at this run's prediction time, the required liquidity and market-cap floors, or five completed daily bars. Without those checks, the event's current price impact and the expected remaining-window direction cannot be established reliably.
    Return: 1.82%; alpha: 2.01%.
  3. LRCX — confidence 10%. Earlier information in this conversation described a guidance-related decline, but it does not verify a quote at this run's prediction time, the required liquidity and market-cap floors, or five completed daily bars. A continuation forecast would rely on stale, unconfirmed information rather than the current price and catalyst reaction.
    Return: -1.97%; alpha: 2.16%.
  4. T — confidence 5%. Earlier information in this conversation referenced AT&T earnings and competitive concerns, but provides no verifiable current quote, market capitalization, 20-day dollar volume, or completed-session history for this run. The event timing and its observed reaction cannot be confirmed; a reversal call would be speculative.
    Return: -3.79%; alpha: -3.60%.
  5. NFLX — confidence 5%. Earlier information in this conversation described negative guidance and a decline, but it does not verify a current quote, the liquidity and market-cap floors, or the completed-session price path for this run. The event's date and current market reaction remain unconfirmed, so the downside direction is not supported by adequate current evidence.
    Return: 0.13%; alpha: 0.07%.

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DeepSeek

DeepSeek: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equities are mixed-to-lower intraday on 22 October 2026, with the Nasdaq down sharply while several earnings reporters are higher. The tape favors company-specific earnings reactions over broad beta, but one-day spikes without proportional fundamental beats are vulnerable to profit-taking into the next session.

  1. PG — confidence 66%. Latest quote: $165.95 at 2026-10-22T15:18:47Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 4 minutes stale at the prediction time). PG reported fiscal Q1 2027 EPS of $2.00 versus the $1.89 estimate and organic revenue growth of 4%, the fastest in three years, before the open on 22 October; the beat is a verified fact, while the inference is that volume-led growth and defensive demand can support the shares for another session. The stock is already up about 5.8%, so much of the beat is reflected. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 158.33/159.95/156.79/157.08/16,414,000; 16 Oct 157.75/159.98/157.56/159.35/13,532,400; 19 Oct 157.87/158.49/157.01/157.69/10,091,100; 20 Oct 158.70/159.47/158.06/159.32/9,746,200; 21 Oct 158.17/158.67/156.80/156.84/9,989,749. return_5d_pct = +0.20% (156.84 vs 156.53 five sessions earlier). high_20d = 159.98; low_20d = 143.40; avg_volume_20d = 8,911,742 shares (Yahoo quote average volume, used as a 20-day proxy). The 21 October bar was a small inside-day close near the lower end, but the 22 October gap up and hold above $161.78 supports continuation rather than reversal. Counter-evidence: the mean analyst target is $162.13, below the current price, and a 5.8% one-day gain in a low-beta staple can invite profit-taking. Invalidation: a regular-session close below $161.78 would undermine the continuation-up thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price, not an exchange-reported dollar-volume figure.
    Return: -2.67%; alpha: -2.47%.
  2. SPOT — confidence 60%. Latest quote: $571.37 at 2026-10-22T15:21:45Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 1 minute stale at the prediction time). Spotify reported Q3 2026 results before the open: paying subscribers rose 2% to 306 million and monthly active users reached 788 million, but EPS came in at $2.48 versus the $2.81 estimate, an 11.6% miss. The subscriber and margin-trend facts are verified; the inference that margin improvement outweighs the EPS miss is speculative, and the stock's 8%-plus gap-up with a fade from the $588.88 intraday high suggests emotional rather than purely fundamental buying. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 518.70/533.84/513.65/533.37/1,614,200; 16 Oct 536.98/536.98/521.84/530.46/1,737,700; 19 Oct 524.13/528.52/511.17/518.76/1,639,600; 20 Oct 523.00/536.74/521.06/526.08/1,723,300; 21 Oct 510.00/531.00/508.01/525.34/2,140,355. return_5d_pct = +0.26% (525.34 vs 523.96). high_20d = 540.82; low_20d = 470.51; avg_volume_20d = 1,681,164 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The 21 October bar closed in the middle of its range after a lower open, while the 22 October gap-up faded from $588.88 to $571.37, which supports a reversal-down call for the remaining window. Counter-evidence: subscriber growth and improving margins are genuine positives, and the stock could stabilize if the market focuses on the margin outlook. Invalidation: a regular-session close above $588.88 would undermine the reversal-down thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
    Return: 0.50%; alpha: -0.30%.
  3. LMT — confidence 69%. Latest quote: $586.72 at 2026-10-22T15:16:00Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 6 minutes stale at the prediction time). Lockheed Martin reported Q3 2026 EPS of $7.97 versus the $7.52 estimate before the open and the stock is up 6.4%, with the intraday high at $607.99 and the low at $577.50. The EPS beat is a verified fact; the inference is that low-beta defense demand and the initial gap hold can support a further relative gain, although the fade from the high is a warning. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 531.00/534.25/526.07/532.64/1,428,100; 16 Oct 539.11/553.14/536.69/552.09/1,600,000; 19 Oct 540.97/554.72/540.00/548.23/1,377,800; 20 Oct 553.00/559.48/545.73/548.71/1,469,900; 21 Oct 547.14/552.82/544.66/551.51/1,470,304. return_5d_pct = +5.61% (551.51 vs 522.23). high_20d = 559.48; low_20d = 497.00; avg_volume_20d = 1,182,103 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The five-session path shows higher lows and a push above the prior 20-day high, and the 22 October gap-up is holding above the 21 October close, which supports continuation. Counter-evidence: the stock is already 6.4% higher and has faded from $607.99, so the risk is that the earnings pop is mostly priced. Invalidation: a regular-session close below $577.50 would undermine the continuation-up thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
    Return: 1.82%; alpha: 2.01%.
  4. BMI — confidence 58%. Latest quote: $146.97 at 2026-10-22T15:22:24Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (essentially current at the prediction time). Badger Meter reported Q3 2026 EPS of $1.24 versus the $1.22 estimate, only a 1.8% beat, yet the stock gapped down to $130.00 and then surged to $149.00, now up 11.5%. The EPS beat is verified, but the size of the move is far larger than the fundamental surprise, which suggests a squeeze or sentiment-driven re-rating rather than a proportional change in business expectations. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 127.81/130.05/124.08/126.88/426,800; 16 Oct 127.04/129.24/125.87/126.48/308,100; 19 Oct 127.07/128.30/125.73/126.26/313,700; 20 Oct 126.20/129.43/125.05/129.01/378,800; 21 Oct 130.14/132.81/127.01/131.86/764,938. return_5d_pct = +2.65% (131.86 vs 128.46). high_20d = 133.80; low_20d = 122.00; avg_volume_20d = 394,437 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The 21 October bar closed near its high on elevated volume, but the 22 October gap-down reversal to $149.00 is an extreme intraday swing that often mean-reverts. Counter-evidence: the stock is holding most of the gain and the volume is not exhausted, so a further squeeze is possible. Invalidation: a regular-session close above $149.00 would undermine the reversal-down thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
    Return: 4.12%; alpha: -3.92%.
  5. EFX — confidence 62%. Latest quote: $185.64 at 2026-10-22T15:15:20Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 7 minutes stale at the prediction time). Equifax reported Q3 2026 EPS of $2.26 versus the $2.20 estimate before the open on 20 October and the stock jumped 11.3% that session; it is up another 5.7% on 22 October. The EPS beat and revenue growth are verified facts; the inference is that post-earnings drift can continue for one more session, although the stock is already extended. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 153.24/161.49/151.96/161.26/1,994,200; 16 Oct 161.77/164.33/159.40/161.25/2,351,800; 19 Oct 159.08/159.93/157.08/158.57/2,123,700; 20 Oct 166.11/177.80/166.11/176.54/3,986,100; 21 Oct 175.78/177.26/172.76/175.57/2,535,585. return_5d_pct = +16.77% (175.57 vs 150.36). high_20d = 177.80; low_20d = 137.01; avg_volume_20d = 1,610,112 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The stock closed near the high of a large gap-up on 20 October, consolidated on 21 October, and is now making a new high, which supports continuation. Counter-evidence: a 16.8% five-session gain and a price above the $198.40 mean target leave little fundamental cushion, and profit-taking could begin at any time. Invalidation: a regular-session close below $172.76 would undermine the continuation-up thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
    Return: -2.27%; alpha: -2.08%.

Full prediction and audit record

GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Upcoming earnings create substantial two-sided risk. Favor a storage earnings rebound, selective consumer resilience and Spotify's operating momentum, balanced by a bearish Bloom Energy forecast. Expected moves are forecasts for the authoritative window, excluding earlier realized moves. Exact start-window quotes and elapsed-window returns could not be verified. Retrieved quotes precede the window start and are approximately nine to 36 minutes old at research time; this limits confidence. The portfolio uses equal weights, with down selections scored as shorts, followed by subtraction of SPY's return.

  1. WDC — confidence 55%. Thesis: the scheduled earnings event could restore confidence in storage demand and margins after today's retreat. The issuer previously guided Q1 revenue to a $4.1 billion midpoint, non-GAAP gross margin to 55.5% and non-GAAP EPS to $4.00; these are prior expectations, not reported Q1 results. Evidence: https://www.westerndigital.com/el-gr/company/newsroom/press-releases/2026/2026-08-05-wd-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2026-financial-results. A favorable update is my uncertain inference. Before the upcoming event, three completed rebound sessions culminated in an October 21 gap and near-high close. Volume was only 0.9190 times its completed 20-session average, and price remained below the broader range high. Today's reversal of that gap is the strongest counter-evidence. I expect recovery after the latest quote, rather than counting the earlier rebound as future upside. Weak guidance or continued emotional selling could defeat this call; a future sustained break below 331.81 would undermine it. latest_price=351.50 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T11:09:29-04:00; regular-session snapshot, feed delay unverified; source=https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-wdc/. This was the newest timestamped quote found. pre_event_price=null and event_to_quote_pct=null for a completed earnings reaction because the event remains upcoming. Elapsed-window return is unavailable. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-22T11:00:00-04:00: open=363.76, high_so_far=367.34, low_so_far=null, cumulative_volume=2933194; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wdc/history/. The displayed low exceeded its contemporaneous quote and is withheld. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, oldest to newest, US Eastern regular sessions; history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wdc/history/: session_date=2026-10-15 open=342.68 high=356.83 low=336.00 close=356.45 volume=12255850 session_date=2026-10-16 open=347.72 high=348.51 low=331.81 close=332.00 volume=8036024 session_date=2026-10-19 open=341.96 high=356.25 low=341.14 close=352.21 volume=7813605 session_date=2026-10-20 open=348.88 high=366.00 low=342.50 close=364.32 volume=8513471 session_date=2026-10-21 open=380.25 high=381.88 low=367.13 close=378.51 volume=8421465 return_5d_pct=3.957704, using the October 14 close of 364.10; high_20d=468.00; low_20d=331.81; avg_volume_20d=9163727.75 shares.
    Return: -0.05%; alpha: 0.15%.
  2. BE — confidence 54%. Thesis: the upcoming earnings event may expose a gap between elevated AI-power expectations and the pace of profitable execution. This is a bearish forecast, not evidence of an earnings miss. The prior issuer report raised annual guidance and documented strong growth, which is substantive counter-evidence: https://investor.bloomenergy.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Bloom-Energy-Reports-Record-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Raises-Full-Year-2026-Guidance/default.aspx. Before the upcoming report, completed prices declined across the broader range, followed by an October 21 gap higher and near-high close. That bullish candle argues against the short; its volume was 0.8521 times the 20-session mean, providing limited confirmation. Today's retreat has already removed much of yesterday's optimism. I forecast additional weakness after the latest quote, not a repeat of the decline already observed. Emotional downside continuation may become exhaustion, and strong earnings could produce a sharp reversal. A future sustained recovery above the verified partial-session high of 229.91, or materially stronger guidance, would undermine the thesis. latest_price=219.17 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T11:19:00-04:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time, retrieved as a snapshot; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/statistics/. pre_event_price=null and event_to_quote_pct=null for a completed earnings reaction because results remain upcoming. Elapsed-window return is unavailable. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-22T10:59:00-04:00: open=228.15, high_so_far=229.91, low_so_far=null, cumulative_volume=5868171; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/. The displayed low exceeded its contemporaneous quote and is withheld. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, oldest to newest, US Eastern regular sessions; history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/history/: session_date=2026-10-15 open=224.28 high=239.85 low=215.12 close=236.30 volume=17429622 session_date=2026-10-16 open=231.28 high=233.59 low=219.17 close=221.31 volume=13539096 session_date=2026-10-19 open=233.23 high=233.50 low=224.20 close=226.22 volume=9840325 session_date=2026-10-20 open=220.16 high=228.79 low=213.09 close=222.65 volume=10900325 session_date=2026-10-21 open=235.36 high=241.37 low=229.30 close=238.53 volume=11567849 return_5d_pct=-0.338431, using the October 14 close of 239.34; high_20d=302.35; low_20d=213.09; avg_volume_20d=13575313.45 shares.
    Return: -11.68%; alpha: 11.87%.
  3. DECK — confidence 54%. Thesis: earnings could support a renewed advance if HOKA and UGG execution sustains the prior outlook. July's issuer report showed HOKA sales growth of 7.7%, UGG growth of 4.9%, and raised annual EPS guidance to $7.35–7.50. Those are historical facts, not tonight's results: https://ir.deckers.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/661/deckers-brands-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results?_sp=43307704-6835-4184-9969-77e7a1907af7. Anticipation may support positioning before the call, followed by a larger response to actual guidance. Completed history shows recovery from the lower end of the 20-session range, but recent advances stalled below 88.40. October 21 opened at its high and closed lower, with a lower wick indicating some buying response. Volume was 0.9938 times average, offering no strong confirmation. The strongest fundamental counter-evidence is that prior-quarter operating income declined despite sales growth. Today's modest rebound is already observed; I expect further upside after the quote if earnings validate the business outlook. A future loss of the verified 82.82 October 14 close, or a reduction in annual EPS guidance, would undermine the thesis. A disappointing report could trigger emotional selling. latest_price=86.18 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T10:52:00-04:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time, but approximately 36 minutes old at research time; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/deck/. Newer accessible quotes were not verified. pre_event_price=null and event_to_quote_pct=null for a completed earnings reaction because the event remains upcoming. Elapsed-window return is unavailable. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-22T10:52:00-04:00: open=84.55, high_so_far=86.23, low_so_far=84.32, cumulative_volume=638829; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/deck/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, oldest to newest, US Eastern regular sessions; history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/deck/history/: session_date=2026-10-15 open=84.60 high=87.24 low=84.13 close=86.58 volume=3065091 session_date=2026-10-16 open=87.24 high=87.57 low=85.00 close=85.71 volume=2694186 session_date=2026-10-19 open=85.77 high=88.40 low=85.21 close=87.24 volume=2639117 session_date=2026-10-20 open=87.89 high=87.98 low=86.68 close=87.37 volume=2640273 session_date=2026-10-21 open=86.71 high=86.71 low=84.19 close=85.49 volume=2822888 return_5d_pct=3.223859, using the October 14 close of 82.82; high_20d=88.40; low_20d=77.20; avg_volume_20d=2840443.9 shares.
    Return: -7.44%; alpha: -7.24%.
  4. AXP — confidence 56%. Thesis: resilient premium-card spending could support a favorable earnings interpretation and upside through tomorrow morning. The prior-quarter issuer filing reported 10% revenue growth, 9% card-member spending growth and raised annual revenue-growth guidance to 10%, while maintaining EPS guidance. These are July facts; continuation into Q3 is uncertain: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4962/000000496226000318/q226exhibit991.htm. Today's positioning can reflect anticipation, but no Q3 earnings reaction has occurred. Completed history shows rising recent closes and an October 21 close near the 20-session high. Volume was 0.8461 times average, weakening breakout conviction. Today's retreat after trading above that completed-range high is the strongest price counter-evidence. Higher engagement expenses and credit costs could also offset spending growth; prior-quarter expenses rose 12%. I expect renewed upside after the latest quote, with the scheduled report providing the principal catalyst. A future sustained break below the verified October 20 low of 315.89, or deterioration in spending and credit commentary, would undermine the call. An earnings disappointment could turn anticipatory optimism into rapid selling. latest_price=322.75 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T11:09:00-04:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time, retrieved as a snapshot; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/axp/history/. pre_event_price=null and event_to_quote_pct=null for a completed Q3 reaction because the event remains upcoming. Elapsed-window return is unavailable. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-22T11:09:00-04:00: open=323.36, high_so_far=326.27, low_so_far=322.62, cumulative_volume=586995; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/axp/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, oldest to newest, US Eastern regular sessions; history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/axp/history/: session_date=2026-10-15 open=309.02 high=314.96 low=306.76 close=313.87 volume=2893001 session_date=2026-10-16 open=316.26 high=319.85 low=312.40 close=313.59 volume=3326314 session_date=2026-10-19 open=312.99 high=317.04 low=311.23 close=316.41 volume=2791958 session_date=2026-10-20 open=317.95 high=322.50 low=315.89 close=318.34 volume=3813838 session_date=2026-10-21 open=321.01 high=325.26 low=318.55 close=323.61 volume=2712309 return_5d_pct=5.427594, using the October 14 close of 306.95; high_20d=325.26; low_20d=297.20; avg_volume_20d=3205540.1 shares.
    Return: -2.73%; alpha: -2.54%.
  5. SPOT — confidence 57%. Thesis: subscriber growth and operating performance may sustain buying after today's earnings repricing. The company statement verifies the subscriber figures and operating metrics above its expectations. Counter-evidence is material: Dow Jones reported EPS of EUR2.48 versus EUR2.80 expected and operating expenses up 26%: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/spotify-3q-revenue-rises-on-premium-subscribers-additions-despite-higher-expenses-ce785cded98ef423. The report improves some business expectations but is not an unqualified earnings beat. Before the event, the last five completed sessions were broadly sideways. October 21 recovered from a lower opening gap and closed in the upper part of its range on 1.4208 times average completed volume, consistent with absorption but not proof of accumulation. Today's quote is above the completed 20-session high, yet below the observed morning high, showing both repricing and profit-taking. I expect further upside after the quote; emotional momentum could instead exhaust because substantial optimism is already reflected. A future sustained break below the verified partial-session low of 555.32 would undermine continuation. latest_price=570.00 USD; quote_time=2026-10-22T11:11:00-04:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time, retrieved as a snapshot; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spot/. Verified pre-event baseline: 525.34 USD at the October 21 regular close, 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spot/history/. The observed baseline-to-quote move is +8.501161%, including other market influences rather than measuring a purely causal event effect. That move is already realized and is excluded from the forecast opportunity. Exact elapsed-window return is unavailable. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-22T11:11:00-04:00: open=561.29, high_so_far=588.88, low_so_far=555.32, cumulative_volume=2202554; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spot/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, oldest to newest, US Eastern regular sessions; history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spot/history/: session_date=2026-10-15 open=518.70 high=533.84 low=513.65 close=533.37 volume=1614053 session_date=2026-10-16 open=536.98 high=536.98 low=521.84 close=530.46 volume=1734374 session_date=2026-10-19 open=524.13 high=528.52 low=511.17 close=518.76 volume=1638039 session_date=2026-10-20 open=523.00 high=536.74 low=521.06 close=526.08 volume=1648313 session_date=2026-10-21 open=510.00 high=531.00 low=508.01 close=525.34 volume=2047851 return_5d_pct=0.263379, using the October 14 close of 523.96; high_20d=540.82; low_20d=470.25; avg_volume_20d=1441289.1 shares.
    Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.69%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Event Gaps: each model's average alpha vs SPY over SPY across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg picks with positive alphaAvg alpha vs SPY
Claude Opus 5.5552.00%+0.71%
ChatGPT160.00%+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro1353.85%+0.37%
Gemini 3.6 Flash160.00%+0.29%
Perplexity1949.47%+0.13%
GPT-61344.62%+0.01%
Grok 4.51945.26%-0.02%
Grok 4140.00%-0.09%
DeepSeek2052.25%-0.13%
Muse Spark 1.12048.00%-0.19%
Claude Opus 5140.00%-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro548.00%-0.76%
Claude Sonnet 5.51038.00%-1.01%
GPT-5.6 Sol740.00%-1.42%
Meta AI - Muse Spark140.00%-1.84%
Kimi120.00%-5.18%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
AAL12.6000000011.94000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAL/history/
ALLE174.30000000179.12500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/
AXP323.77000000314.93000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AXP/history/
BE219.25000000193.64610000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BE/history/
BHVN14.7600000014.27000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHVN/history/
BMI146.96500000153.01500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMI/history/
CSX51.6850000051.01000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSX/history/
DECK86.9500000080.48500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DECK/history/
EFX186.46000000182.22000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EFX/history/
IBM249.09010000252.03000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM/history/
LMT585.62000000596.28000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/
LRCX235.11560000230.49000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/
META658.79500000646.40000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/
NFLX66.5099000066.59500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history/
PG166.12960000161.70000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG/history/
RCUS19.3100000018.80500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCUS/history/
SMCI33.6050000033.70000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/history/
SPOT571.40510000574.24500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/history/
SPY764.04000000762.56000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
T22.4000000021.55000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/
TSLA384.59650000376.39500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/
WDC352.73500000352.57500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 89a0398b7d3f6fd1045bc280dd856c0715f941c6259d24b225586c7322dc3d59. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.

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