Oct 23, 2026 - 6 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 3 models finished positive

Asked Oct 23, 10:31 AM EDT (morning session). Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6, Gemini 3 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 23, 10:31 AM EDT to Oct 26, 10:31 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Directional return
Claude Sonnet 5.5	3/5	60.00%	-0.50%	0.67%	-0.50%
GPT-6	2/5	40.00%	0.37%	0.67%	0.37%
Gemini 3 Pro	2/5	40.00%	-1.74%	0.67%	-1.74%
Muse Spark 1.1	5/5	100.00%	2.39%	0.67%	2.39%
Perplexity	1/5	20.00%	-1.37%	0.67%	-1.37%
DeepSeek	3/5	60.00%	0.92%	0.67%	0.92%

Claude Sonnet 5.5

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The Oct 22 session was driven by an AI-financing scare. The Nasdaq fell about 2.6% and semiconductors fell about 6.7%. The average stock held up, as money rotated into defensive sectors. Several large single-name moves looked like sentiment overshoots on news that was not fundamentally negative (a data leak, a CFO exit, a sector-wide optics sell-off). Early Oct 23 quotes show partial rebounds in those names. The picks lean toward reversal of the biggest decliners, one earnings-drift continuation, and one fade of a regulatory-news spike. Oil above $114 and a weak Nasdaq tape are the main risks for every long.

1. FPS up — confidence 60%. Forgent fell 21.54% on Oct 22 (close $24.92 vs $31.76) after announcing a CFO transition, a record low below its $27 IPO price. The news was management-related, not operational. The company said the same day that fiscal Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA will exceed the high end of guidance, and it said the CFO exit was not due to any disagreement. Fiscal Q4 revenue was up 94% with record backlog. Analysts trimmed targets (Jefferies to $36) but kept Buy ratings, and the consensus target is about $54.67. The catalyst is speculative sentiment on a governance change, not a fundamental miss. A reversal is the bet, and the stock is already steadying at $24.62. Risks: the AI/data-center sell-off continues, forced selling after a 62% drawdown, heavy put volume, and a stock that trades at a premium multiple. Price used: delayed intraday quote from 10:15 AM EDT on Oct 23 (about 15 minutes stale). 20-day average dollar volume was not exactly confirmed: average share volume is about 8.2-8.8M shares at roughly $25-40, well above the $20M floor, so the field is omitted. Market cap is about $7.5B.
   Return: -1.38%; alpha: -2.05%.
2. COHR up — confidence 55%. Coherent fell 12.51% on Oct 22 (close $207.82 from $237.53) in a sector-wide optics sell-off. It was triggered by AI-financing fears and a tech sell-off (QQQ -2.86%, SOX about -6.7%) before the group's early-November earnings. The stock had no company-specific bad news. Peers say order books are sold out into 2029, and the consensus target is about $410, so the move looks like a speculative de-rating. It is up about 1.8% at $211.57 on Oct 23 after trading near $205, which supports a bounce. Risks: the AI trade has been in a multi-week downtrend (-34.9% in October), high beta of about 2.1, and further financing headlines. 20-day average dollar volume is computed from the last 20 sessions of close times volume, about $1.97B. Price used: delayed intraday quote at 9:47 AM EDT on Oct 23 (about 15 minutes stale). Market cap is about $41.7B.
   Return: 0.05%; alpha: -0.62%.
3. MRNA up — confidence 52%. Moderna fell 17.57% on Oct 22 (close $202.63 from about $245.8) after embargoed Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma data leaked early. The session low was about $183, and some mid-session tallies showed -23% to -25%; the official close was -17.57%. The data were positive: 42% lower risk of recurrence or death. Bernstein, William Blair, TD Cowen and Wells Fargo called the reaction sell-the-news or overdone, but the catalyst has now been partly resolved. The stock is already rebounding from about $191 pre-market to $199.22. Full data are presented at ESMO on Saturday Oct 24, a possible catalyst inside the window. Risks: a 500-600% year-to-date run to fade, a consensus Hold rating with a $123.61 average target, law-firm securities-fraud notices, and the risk that the ESMO details disappoint. Price used: delayed intraday quote at 10:24 AM EDT on Oct 23 (about 15 minutes stale). Market cap is about $79.5B. 20-day average dollar volume was not confirmed, though volume was 8.7M shares at roughly $200 in the first hour alone, far above the floor, so the field is omitted.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: 0.27%.
4. POOL up — confidence 52%. Pool Corp rose 14.36% on Oct 22 (close $197.21 from $172.44) on Q3 results: sales +4% (accelerating from +2%), adjusted EPS $3.40 against a consensus of about $3.35, and reaffirmed full-year guidance. After the report, Goldman raised its target to $245 from $215, Baird to $250 from $225, and Stephens to $230 from $200, and it started from deeply depressed sentiment (several recent target cuts and a downgrade). Post-earnings drift is the thesis, and the catalyst is substantive. Risks: the stock is up 14% in one day and was already -1.1% pre-market at $195.00. Guidance was only confirmed, gross margin fell 60 bps, pool construction is weak, and the tape is soft. Price used: pre-market quote at 8:23 AM EDT on Oct 23, so it is stale and not a regular-session price. Market cap is about $7.2B. 20-day average dollar volume was not exactly confirmed: average volume is roughly 0.8M shares at about $170-200, well above the floor, so the field is omitted.
   Return: 1.14%; alpha: 0.47%.
5. BHVN down — confidence 48%. Biohaven rose 25.02% on Oct 22 (close $14.69 from $11.75) after the FDA accepted its troriluzole (Vyglxia) NDA resubmission for spinocerebellar ataxia, with a Q1 2027 goal date. It was up as much as 34-36% intraday and faded into the close, and it opened Oct 23 at $15.22 but traded at $14.61. The catalyst is real but only procedural. The FDA rejected the prior application over study design, the new filing relies on real-world evidence, and an advisory committee will be convened. The adcomm date, which could be announced soon, is a binary risk. The sell-off after the earlier BHV-7000 clinical hold (Sept 10) also shows how fragile sentiment is here. The bet is a fade of the spike. Risks: a short position in a beta-3 biotech with a stock-specific squeeze or favorable adcomm announcement, and analyst target raises (RBC to $22). Price used: delayed intraday quote at 9:35 AM EDT on Oct 23 (stale by about an hour). Market cap is about $2.2B. 20-day average dollar volume was not confirmed: average volume is about 2.6-3M shares at roughly $11-14, or about $30-40M and above the floor, so the field is omitted.
   Return: 3.26%; alpha: -3.94%.

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GPT-6

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October 22 is treated as the source session because it is the latest completed US session before prediction_time. I favor selective earnings-driven strength, a rebound in unusually punished TTM Technologies, and continued pressure on semiconductor equipment and speculative biotechnology valuations. These are forecasts, not observed outcomes.

1. TTMI up — confidence 64%. Ranked first for rebound potential after a 27.67% source-session decline. TTM's company-filed earnings release documents record quarterly revenue and adjusted earnings plus an initial 2027 forecast, making the catalyst substantive. My inference is that the selloff overreacted to near-term expectations. Acquisition financing and continued hardware-sector selling are risks. Reference price is the October 23 regular-session quote timestamped 10:26 AM EDT, approximately nine minutes old when checked. An upward forecast is a reversal of the source-session decline.
   Return: 8.18%; alpha: 7.51%.
2. ALLE up — confidence 62%. Ranked second for a substantive earnings catalyst: Allegion's company-issued results reported organic revenue growth, higher adjusted earnings and a raised full-year outlook. Its 11.02% source-session gain was the largest S&P 500 advance in the researched mover table. I expect some follow-through as investors revise expectations. Profit-taking after the large jump is the principal risk. Reference price is the October 23 regular-session quote timestamped 10:20 AM EDT, approximately 15 minutes old when checked.
   Return: 0.83%; alpha: 0.15%.
3. LRCX down — confidence 60%. Ranked third because the 11.76% source-session decline coincided with a substantive earnings reassessment and broad semiconductor weakness. Lam reported record results, while contemporaneous reporting highlighted supply and cleanroom constraints. I infer that estimate uncertainty can sustain selling despite strong demand. A rebound driven by the earnings beat is the main risk. Reference price is the October 23 regular-session quote timestamped 10:21 AM EDT, approximately 14 minutes old when checked. The source-session market capitalization is reported by StockTitan.
   Return: 2.96%; alpha: -3.63%.
4. BHVN down — confidence 58%. Ranked fourth for a potential reversal of the 25.02% source-session advance. Biohaven's SEC filing confirms FDA acceptance of the resubmitted Vyglxia application, a substantive regulatory milestone. Approval remains uncertain, so extrapolating acceptance into commercial success is speculative. I expect profit-taking after the large jump; further analyst upgrades or renewed regulatory optimism could invalidate that view. Reference price is the October 23 regular-session quote timestamped 10:28 AM EDT, approximately seven minutes old when checked.
   Return: 3.26%; alpha: -3.94%.
5. MRNA down — confidence 55%. Ranked fifth because clinical news creates unusually high uncertainty despite the 17.57% source-session decline. The company-issued trial update reports a significant reduction in melanoma recurrence or death, making the evidence substantive. My bearish inference concerns speculative valuation expectations and further selling after the disclosure, not trial failure. Favorable interpretation of the scheduled ESMO presentation is a major upside risk. Reference price is the October 23 regular-session quote timestamped 10:20 AM EDT on the market-cap page, approximately 15 minutes old when checked.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: -1.62%.

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Gemini 3 Pro

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US equities are exhibiting sector-specific divergence following robust earnings reports in technology, healthcare, and consumer services against broader technology and semiconductor macro headwinds. Large-cap single-stock earnings catalysts continue to drive significant intraday momentum, with strong fundamental earnings beats offering multi-day upside potential while regulatory/clinical trial setbacks remain exposed to extended post-earnings selling pressure.

1. SPOT up — confidence 75%. Spotify Technology SA reported strong Q3 earnings results featuring subscriber growth beats and robust active user metrics. The stock surged +10.68% during the source session. Given the solid fundamental catalyst and momentum institutional buying, a continuation of the upward trajectory is expected over the next trading session. Reference quote uses real-time regular-session market pricing.
   Return: -1.25%; alpha: -1.92%.
2. MRNA up — confidence 70%. Moderna fell -16.94% in the source session following an early publication leak of Phase 3 trial data (INTerpath-001) for its cancer vaccine candidate ahead of the official ESMO presentation. Given the heavily oversold single-day drop and technical bounce expectations ahead of the weekend medical conference presentation, a short-term reversal is anticipated. Reference price uses regular-session close.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: 0.27%.
3. TTMI down — confidence 70%. TTM Technologies tumbled -26.86% (or -27.67% close-to-close) as quarterly results and forward guidance disappointed amidst a broader global pullback in technology and hardware components. The substantial technical breakdown below moving averages indicates continued short-term downward momentum. Reference price reflects regular-session price.
   Return: 8.18%; alpha: -8.86%.
4. KALU down — confidence 65%. Kaiser Aluminum plunged -25.81% following a missed Q3 earnings deliverable and margin compression in key industrial business lines. The severe gap-down breaking multi-month support suggests further downside pressure as analysts revise price targets downward. Reference price reflects regular-session close.
   Return: -0.83%; alpha: 0.16%.
5. CRS down — confidence 65%. Carpenter Technology fell -20.07% in the source session after reporting quarterly earnings and receiving price target downgrades. The sharp contraction in aerospace and materials equities suggests a continuation of institutional distribution into the subsequent session. Reference price reflects regular-session close.
   Return: 1.03%; alpha: -1.70%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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S&P 500 fell 1.2% while Dow steadied on Oct 23 2026 with AI hardware leading a 【entity-Nasdaq¦canonical_name=Nasdaq】 -2.6% rout. Despite broad tech weakness, earnings beats drove extreme upside outliers like POOL and ALLE, while earnings misses and a high-profile oncology data leak drove -17% to -27% collapses in MRNA, TTMI and KALU. Tape is bifurcated: substantive earnings catalysts rather than speculative squeezes, so continuation of earnings-driven trends is more likely than mean reversion, but oversold bounce risk is high for the deepest -25%+ losers.

1. POOL up — confidence 75%. Top 3 gainer Oct 23: +14.36% to 197.26 in market-wall gainer list (PSKY +41.46%, BHVN +25.19%, POOL +14.36%) . Substantive catalyst: Q3 EPS $3.40 beat consensus $3.36 by $0.04 and revenue $1.50B vs $1.48B est . Price used is intraday 194.83 from Finnhub Current Price 194.83 as of regular session Oct 23, stale <2 hours. Market cap 6.25B and avg daily traded value 179.41M USD meet $1B/$20M floors. Continuation up thesis: beat with maintained guidance triggered 2.74x relative volume. Risk: high valuation after +23% 5-day run.
   Return: 1.14%; alpha: 0.47%.
2. ALLE up — confidence 70%. S&P 500 top gainer Oct 23 session: ALLE rose 9.75% as top gainer, while COHR fell 11.86% as steepest loser . Substantive catalyst: shares gapped up before open after better-than-expected earnings, stock previously closed at $159.00 but opened at $170.00 . Additional upgrade to Buy at BofA with target raised to $200. Price is latest regular 176.5 from Finnhub Current Price 176.5, intraday Oct 23. Market cap 13.35B and avg daily traded value 157.76M USD meet floors. Continuation up thesis: clean beat plus raised profit outlook tends to see follow-through. Risk: after +10% gap, intraday fade.
   Return: 0.83%; alpha: 0.15%.
3. MRNA up — confidence 60%. Big loser Oct 23: -17.5% to 202.91 in biggest losers list including TTMI -27.64%, KALU -25.7%, MRNA -17.5% . Substantive catalyst: leaked Phase 3 INTerpath-001 data showed 42% risk reduction (vaccine cut risk by 42% but fell short of 49% Phase 2) . Shares tumbled 17.6% to $202.63 from prior $245.81 . Market cap 80.9B as of Oct 22 and avg traded value 1.14B USD meet floors. Reversal up thesis: 42% is statistically positive, sell-the-news overreaction after +657% 1-year run. Price used is intraday 198.76 from Finnhub Current Price 198.7614 on Oct 23, showing stabilization vs close. Risk: valuation still pricing $26B oncology sales needed for $200.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: 0.27%.
4. TTMI up — confidence 55%. Biggest loser Oct 23: TTMI -27.64% to 73.92 in losers list . Substantive but mixed catalyst: Q3 EPS $1.46 beating estimate $1.27 resulting in 14.23% surprise , yet management revealed supply chain wait times expanded to 24 weeks driving data center division 10% below targets . Stock fell hardest on AI-hardware break: TTMI -27.7% at close Oct 22 . Price used is intraday 76.995 Current Price 76.995 with Previous Close 73.89 showing +4.20% bounce on Oct 23 morning, indicating reversal attempt. Market cap 10.21B and avg traded value 299.15M USD meet floors, traded at $73.89 with market cap $7.78B and volume 17.45M shares confirming liquidity . Reversal up thesis: record quarter oversold, premarket +3.41% to $76.41 after earnings beat. Risk: 2027 revenue forecast below expectations keeps pressure.
   Return: 8.18%; alpha: 7.51%.
5. KALU down — confidence 65%. Loser Oct 23: KALU -25.7% to 114.24 in losers list . Substantive catalyst: earnings miss by $0.48 (missed by $0.48) , reported $1.89 vs consensus $2.37 and gapped down prior to trading, stock previously closed at $153.95 but opened at $134.90 . Price used is intraday 108.23 Current Price 108.23 with Previous Close 114.99 showing continued selling Oct 23. Market cap 2.45B and avg daily traded value 34.39M USD meet floors. Continuation down thesis: margin compression (EBITDA margin drop 23.2% to 19.1%) and lowered packaging shipment guidance suggest follow-through selling. Risk: short-term bounce after -26.96% 5-day return.
   Return: -0.83%; alpha: 0.16%.

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Perplexity

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The source session was Thursday, October 22, 2026, when a broad AI/technology selloff drove the Nasdaq down 2.60% and the S&P 500 down 1.21%, while the Dow closed marginally higher. The five selections pair two oversold losers with potential stabilization bounces against three earnings- or news-driven gainers where momentum may persist. The market remains catalyst-driven and volatile, so single-day reversal and continuation calls carry elevated uncertainty.

1. LKQ up — confidence 55%. LKQ was the largest S&P 500 loser in the October 22 source session, falling 20.84%, reportedly after results/guidance-related selling; the move was substantive rather than merely speculative. With the stock near its 52-week low and already deeply de-rated, I take a reversal-up stance for the next regular session, though the catalyst was fundamentally negative and continued downside is a material risk. Reference price is the latest Blue Ocean overnight quote of 21.42 USD on October 23; market cap is the Yahoo intraday figure of 5.409 billion USD. The 20-day average dollar volume is derived from Yahoo's reported 20-day average share volume of 3,368,733 multiplied by the latest price, approximately 72.0 million USD; I could not find a directly published dollar-volume figure.
   Return: -3.33%; alpha: -4.01%.
2. MRNA up — confidence 50%. Moderna fell 17.57% in the October 22 source session after leaked Phase 3 melanoma-vaccine data reportedly met high expectations but trailed the most bullish projections; this was a substantive, binary clinical-data catalyst. The sell-off was extreme and the detailed data presentation was scheduled for October 24, creating potential for a stabilization or short-covering bounce, but the fundamental read-through was negative and further downside is equally plausible. Reference price is the latest Blue Ocean overnight quote of 203.69 USD on October 23; market cap is Yahoo's intraday figure of 80.897 billion USD. The 20-day average dollar volume is derived from Yahoo's average share volume of 19,703,756 times the latest price, approximately 4.013 billion USD; no directly published dollar-volume figure was found.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: 0.27%.
3. CCI up — confidence 60%. Crown Castle gained 14.02% in the October 22 source session after Bloomberg reported talks with SpaceX about tower leases for a potential 80,000-site U.S. wireless network; the report is substantive news but its commercial terms and probability remain uncertain, making part of the move speculative. The stock also reported a Q3 AFFO beat and raised full-year 2026 guidance, supporting continuation. I expect follow-through buying, though the story-driven premium can fade quickly if SpaceX talks are denied or delayed. Reference price is the latest Blue Ocean overnight quote of 84.10 USD on October 23; market cap is Yahoo's intraday figure of 34.449 billion USD. The 20-day average dollar volume is derived from Yahoo's average share volume of 4,016,395 times the latest price, approximately 337.8 million USD; no directly published dollar-volume figure was found.
   Return: -1.13%; alpha: -1.81%.
4. AMT up — confidence 55%. American Tower rose 7.88% in the October 22 source session alongside Crown Castle on the reported SpaceX tower-leasing discussions; the catalyst is substantive sector news but still unconfirmed in commercial detail. As the larger, more liquid tower REIT, AMT may see continued rotational demand, but its smaller percentage move suggests less extreme positioning than CCI. I take continuation-up, with the main risk that the SpaceX narrative proves speculative and tower REITs give back the pop. Reference price is the latest regular-session quote of 178.28 USD as of 2:51 PM EDT on October 23; market cap is Yahoo's intraday figure of 83.071 billion USD. The 20-day average dollar volume is derived from Yahoo's average share volume of 2,775,550 times the latest price, approximately 494.8 million USD; no directly published dollar-volume figure was found.
   Return: -2.08%; alpha: -2.75%.
5. SPOT up — confidence 60%. Spotify rose 11.10% in the October 22 source session after Q3 results featured paid-subscriber growth above expectations and an upbeat Q4 profit outlook, including AI-driven personalization initiatives; this is a substantive earnings catalyst. Although reported EPS of 2.48 missed the 2.81 estimate, the market rewarded subscriber momentum and forward guidance. I expect partial continuation as analysts and investors digest the print, while recognizing that a large post-earnings gain often attracts profit-taking. Reference price is the latest after-hours quote of 584.00 USD at 5:01 PM EDT on October 22; market cap is Yahoo's intraday figure of 119.991 billion USD. The 20-day average dollar volume is derived from Yahoo's average share volume of 1,681,164 times the latest price, approximately 981.8 million USD; no directly published dollar-volume figure was found.
   Return: -1.25%; alpha: -1.92%.

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DeepSeek

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The source session, 2026-10-22, produced sharp earnings-driven moves in defense and software alongside a risk-off selloff in semiconductors and specialty metals. For the 2026-10-23 target session I favor follow-through in liquid earnings winners, downside continuation in the weaker semiconductor complex, and selective mean-reversion in overextended or macro-driven moves. All five selections clear the $5 price, $1B market-cap and $20M 20-day average dollar-volume floors at the source-session close.

1. LMT up — confidence 74%. Ranked first. Lockheed Martin rose 6.96% on 2026-10-22 after a substantive Q3 earnings beat and record backlog that supported a raised outlook, a company-specific catalyst capable of attracting follow-through demand. The stock clears all screens with a source-session close of $589.91, market cap of $136.15B and roughly $694M in 20-day average dollar volume. The latest quote I found is $594.805 at 10:31 ET on 2026-10-23, up 0.83% versus the prior close; this is a live intraday reference price. Direction up with continuation; the main risk is profit-taking after the gap or a broader defense-sector pullback.
   Return: 4.44%; alpha: 3.77%.
2. BHVN down — confidence 68%. Ranked second. Biohaven jumped 25.02% on 2026-10-22 after the FDA accepted its resubmitted NDA for Vyglxia/troriluzole in spinocerebellar ataxia, a substantive regulatory catalyst. The move is already very large, and the stock is giving back gains early on 2026-10-23: the latest quote is $14.32 at 10:09 ET, down 2.52% from the $14.69 prior close. Market cap is $2.219B and 20-day average dollar volume is about $38M, so the name passes the screens. Direction down with reversal; the key risk is renewed FDA-related momentum or a short squeeze.
   Return: 3.26%; alpha: -3.94%.
3. AEIS down — confidence 64%. Ranked third. Advanced Energy fell 12.49% on 2026-10-22 to $216.64 in a semiconductor and AI-spending selloff; the catalyst was largely sector and macro driven and therefore speculative rather than a company-specific miss. The name remains liquid, with a $9.91B market cap and about $138M in 20-day average dollar volume. The latest quote is $213.96 at 09:52 ET on 2026-10-23, still below the prior close; I use this live intraday price. Direction down with continuation; the main risk is a sharp semiconductor rebound or an oversold bounce.
   Return: 1.91%; alpha: -2.58%.
4. CSGP down — confidence 60%. Ranked fourth. CoStar rose 7.75% on 2026-10-22 to $35.45, but the catalyst was speculative: a Keefe Bruyette price-target increase to $34 with a Market Perform rating and a broader housing rally, not a fundamental earnings surprise. The stock is already trading below that spike on 2026-10-23; the latest quote is $35.02, down about 1.2%. Market cap is $14.36B and 20-day average dollar volume is roughly $235M, so it passes the liquidity screens. Direction down with reversal; the key risk is continued upgrade-driven buying or pre-earnings positioning ahead of the Oct. 27 report.
   Return: -3.13%; alpha: 2.46%.
5. ATI up — confidence 56%. Ranked fifth. ATI fell 10.43% on 2026-10-22 to $161.84 in a risk-off move across specialty metals, with rising yields and oil prices and sector de-rating rather than a company-specific miss; the catalyst is therefore speculative and macro driven. It still has a $22.04B market cap and about $264M in 20-day average dollar volume. The latest quote is $161.50 on 2026-10-23, slightly below the source close. Direction up with reversal on record aerospace backlog and pre-earnings stabilization; the main risk is continued sector weakness before the Oct. 29 earnings report.
   Return: 2.22%; alpha: 1.55%.

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How models have done in Extreme Movers

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg directions called correctly	Avg directional return
Claude Sonnet 5.5	17	58.82%	+0.90%
Meta AI - Muse Spark	1	40.00%	+0.73%
Grok 4	4	55.00%	+0.68%
DeepSeek	28	48.75%	+0.49%
GPT-6 Thinking	1	20.00%	+0.12%
Claude Opus 5	6	60.00%	+0.03%
Muse Spark 1.1	26	46.15%	-0.00%
Grok 4.5	21	46.67%	-0.07%
Claude Opus 5.5	5	40.00%	-0.10%
Perplexity	19	42.11%	-0.46%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	18	48.89%	-0.52%
GPT-6	16	41.25%	-0.76%
Gemini 3 Pro	9	40.00%	-0.97%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High	1	40.00%	-2.13%
GPT-5.6 Sol	10	46.00%	-3.06%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AEIS	216.35000000	220.48000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEIS/history/
ALLE	176.12500000	177.58000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/
AMT	193.86000000	189.83500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT/history/
ATI	157.75500000	161.26000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ATI/history/
BHVN	14.09000000	14.55000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHVN/history/
CCI	88.72000000	87.71500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/
COHR	212.39000000	212.50000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COHR/history/
CRS	286.03000000	288.97010000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRS/history/
CSGP	34.64000000	33.55500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSGP/history/
FPS	24.70000000	24.36000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FPS/history/
KALU	108.05000000	107.15000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KALU/history/
LKQ	17.76000000	17.16800000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LKQ/history/
LMT	594.81000000	621.24000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/
LRCX	229.12240000	235.89500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/
MRNA	198.79000000	200.66500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
POOL	194.99500000	197.22000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POOL/history/
SPOT	585.70000000	578.39000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPOT/history/
SPY	759.66000000	764.78100000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
TTMI	77.48000000	83.82000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTMI/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11, SHA-256 a96c2bb92421a1d0c5cc2d44ce0ead688bb7c9cfdb25790d47c7064e4c1144b8. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.