Oct 23, 2026 - 6 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 4 models finished positive

Asked Oct 23, 10:31 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 3 Pro, Grok 4.7, DeepSeek and Claude Opus 5.5 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 23, 10:31 AM EDT to Oct 26, 10:31 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Directional return
GPT-6	3/5	60.00%	0.04%	0.67%	0.04%
Muse Spark 1.1	4/5	80.00%	2.40%	0.67%	2.40%
Gemini 3 Pro	1/5	20.00%	-0.79%	0.67%	-0.79%
Grok 4.7	3/5	60.00%	0.71%	0.67%	0.71%
DeepSeek	2/5	40.00%	-0.47%	0.67%	-0.47%
Claude Opus 5.5	4/5	80.00%	0.29%	0.67%	0.29%

GPT-6

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The source session is October 22, 2026. I favor selective earnings-driven continuation, with two lower-confidence reversals. Candidates were drawn from the source-session gainers and losers at https://quant500.com/sp500-gainers-losers and checked against individual histories. All five clear the source-close price, capitalization and liquidity floors using the retrieved figures. Market capitalizations below refer to October 22; reference prices are the newest timestamped quotes I could verify across the sources searched. Quotes are snapshots and may be delayed. Completed statistics use September 25 through October 22 only, excluding October 23. Average dollar volume is calculated as mean(daily Close multiplied by daily share volume); it is not trade-by-trade dollar turnover. Retrieved feeds disagree on some volumes and market capitalizations, so confidence is moderate and each calculation consistently uses its stated history snapshot. Pre-event baseline-to-quote changes include intervening trading and are not isolated causal event returns. The authoritative scoring window remains 2026-10-23T14:31:38.339Z through 2026-10-26T14:31:00.000Z. Exact start-time prices were unavailable, so elapsed-window returns cannot be verified; remaining forecasts exclude already observed moves.

1. LRCX down — confidence 62%. Ranked first for the clearest combination of a substantive shipment constraint and a completed-session breakdown; it was the third-largest S&P 500 loser. latest_price=231.41 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T10:49:00-04:00; regular-session quote labelled real-time by https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lrcx/statistics/, although retrieval latency is unverified. Pre-event baseline=260.81 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; baseline-to-quote change=-11.2726%, not an isolated earnings reaction. Lam's company release verifies record revenue and December guidance: https://investor.lamresearch.com/2026-10-21-Lam-Research-Corporation-Reports-Financial-Results-for-the-Quarter-Ended-September-27%2C-2026. Management's supply and cleanroom constraints, discussed in its earnings call, affect shipment timing rather than merely sentiment. Most initial repricing has occurred; I nevertheless expect renewed selling after the current quote. The five-session decline, downside earnings gap, upper wick and close near the source-session low support continuation on 2.43 times completed 20-session average volume. Strongest counter-evidence is today's recovery above 230.15 and record operating performance. A future close above 242.10 would undermine the call. PARTIAL SESSION at 2026-10-23T10:24:16-04:00, earlier than the latest quote: open=227.41, high_so_far=229.22, low_so_far=225.14, cumulative_volume approximately 2410000, source https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LRCX:NASDAQ. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source-close capitalization: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lrcx/market-cap/.
   Return: 2.96%; alpha: -3.63%.
2. ALLE up — confidence 62%. Ranked second for verified operating improvement and a strong earnings breakout; it led the S&P 500 gainers. latest_price=176.30 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T10:32:50-04:00; regular-session snapshot from https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ALLE:NYSE, with feed delay unverified. Pre-event baseline=159.00 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; baseline-to-quote change=10.8805%, not an isolated event return. Allegion reported 7.2% organic revenue growth and raised revenue and adjusted EPS guidance: https://www.allegion.com/corp/en/news/year/2026/q3-results.html. This is substantive business improvement, although substantial optimism is already reflected in the price. Before earnings, the last two closes rose; the subsequent upside gap, minimal upper wick, 20-session high and 2.02 times average completed volume favor continuation. I expect a further advance after the quote. Strongest counter-evidence is today's fade from the opening gap and weak international organic revenue. A future close below 167.62 would invalidate the breakout thesis. PARTIAL SESSION as of the quote: open=178.85, high_so_far=179.47, low_so_far=176.11, cumulative_volume approximately 294960, from the same Google Finance URL. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source-close capitalization: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alle/market-cap/; completed prices and liquidity calculation: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alle/history/.
   Return: 0.83%; alpha: 0.15%.
3. ROP up — confidence 59%. Ranked third because its fundamental catalyst is verified, but the price response is large relative to the guidance increase; it was the second-largest S&P 500 gainer. latest_price=434.69 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T10:34:00-04:00; regular-session quote labelled real-time at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/, with retrieval latency unverified. Pre-event baseline=397.56 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; baseline-to-quote change=9.3395%, not an isolated earnings return. Roper reported 7% organic growth and raised adjusted full-year EPS guidance to 22.35-22.40 from 22.15-22.30: https://investors.ropertech.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roper-technologies-announces-third-quarter-financial-results-2. The upgrade changes earnings expectations rather than merely sentiment, although much is priced in. The pre-event rise, earnings gap, close near the 20-session high and 2.45 times average completed volume support continuation. I expect a renewed advance after the current quote. Strongest counter-evidence is today's reversal from the opening gap toward its partial-session low. A future close below 406.46 would invalidate the thesis. PARTIAL SESSION at 2026-10-23T10:34:00-04:00: open=440.00, high_so_far=444.77, low_so_far=434.46, cumulative_volume=285925; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source-close capitalization: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/market-cap/.
   Return: 2.92%; alpha: 2.25%.
4. MRNA up — confidence 54%. Ranked fourth as a speculative reversal supported by positive clinical facts, rather than oversold conditions alone; it was the largest S&P 500 loser. latest_price=198.61 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T10:42:00-04:00; regular-session quote labelled real-time at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrna/history/, with retrieval latency unverified. Pre-event baseline=245.81 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; baseline-to-quote change=-19.2018%. The immediately pre-leak quote and isolated leak-reaction return are null. The companies' release verifies a 42% reduction in recurrence or death with intismeran plus Keytruda: https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/merck-moderna-present-results-landmark-185900591.html. This is substantive clinical evidence, although approval, commercial value and overall survival remain uncertain. The preceding rally and heavy breakdown argue for continuation; the source-session lower wick and today's recovery from 183.00 provide competing reversal evidence. I expect recovery after the quote as investors reassess efficacy ahead of the weekend presentation, without assuming undisclosed positive results. Much disappointment is already reflected, but that is an inference. Strongest counter-evidence is the loss of the preceding rally on 2.55 times average completed volume. A future break below 180.80 would invalidate the rebound thesis. PARTIAL SESSION as of the quote: open=196.69, high_so_far=203.47, low_so_far=183.00, cumulative_volume=9782057, same history URL. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source-close capitalization: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrna/market-cap/.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: 0.27%.
5. BX down — confidence 53%. Ranked fifth because the reversal case conflicts with strong completed-session demand; it was the fourth-largest S&P 500 gainer. latest_price=116.60 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T10:49:00-04:00; regular-session quote labelled real-time at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bx/market-cap/, with retrieval latency unverified. Pre-event baseline=109.57 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; baseline-to-quote change=6.4160%, not an isolated earnings return. Blackstone's earnings filing reports fee-related earnings growth of 6%, but distributable earnings declined 9%: https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/BX/8-k-blackstone-inc-reports-material-event-26482c5eea7c.html. This is a substantive mixed catalyst; the inference is that enthusiasm for fundraising and AI infrastructure may have exceeded the near-term earnings improvement. Before earnings, prices were recovering unevenly. The source session reversed an opening decline and closed near its high on 2.00 times average completed volume, strongly supporting continuation and constituting the strongest counter-evidence. Nevertheless, failure to exceed the 20-session high and today's lower opening support a cautious fade. I expect additional weakness after 116.60; the already observed decline is not counted as a future opportunity. A future close above 119.50 would invalidate the reversal thesis. PARTIAL SESSION at 2026-10-23T10:29:00-04:00, earlier than the latest quote: open=116.85, high_so_far=117.76, low_so_far=116.01, cumulative_volume=1255271; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bx/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. October 22 capitalization of 147.70 billion was verified at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bx/.
   Return: 1.54%; alpha: -2.22%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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October 22 2026 was a sharp risk-off day for AI hardware with S&P 500 -1.21% to 7663.43 and Nasdaq -2.6% worst since June, while Dow flat. Top S&P gainers were earnings-driven defensives Roper +9.52% to $435.39 and Allegion +9.46% to $174.04 beating forecasts and raising outlook. Biggest losers were high-beta tech and materials on earnings misses and data concerns: Moderna -17.57% to $202.63 despite Phase 3 melanoma data, TTM Technologies -28.26% to $73.89 on record quarter but supply-chain delays, and Carpenter Technology -20.62% to $292.26 on revenue miss and valuation de-risking. Heavy volume in losers confirms capitulation, while gainers saw lower relative volume suggesting selective buying.

1. ROP up — confidence 70%. Ranked #1 S&P 500 gainer Oct 22 +9.52% to $435.39 per ChartMill. Catalyst substantive: Q3 2026 earnings $5.89 vs $5.79 consensus on $2.17B revenue reported Oct 22 before open beating estimates and raising full-year EPS outlook to $22.15-22.30 with $447M free cash flow +11%. Market reaction +8.5% mid-day high $426.58 last $431.2340 on 404,862 shares vs avg 1,189,074. Intraday evidence: latest_price 436.23 USD close Oct 22 4pm EDT per stockanalysis, quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/, type prior close. Reference_price 436.23 consistent. Pre-event price $397.56 previous close, observed event-to-quote +9.73% (38.67). Partial session Oct 22: open null, high $439.720 low $406.460 close $436.350 per intelligentinvestor. Substantive beat supports continuation up despite market down. Counter-evidence: volume decline 66% from average and Nasdaq AI rout -2.6%. Invalidation future: close below $397.56 prior close or guidance cut.
   Return: 2.92%; alpha: 2.25%.
2. ALLE up — confidence 68%. Ranked #2 S&P 500 gainer Oct 22 +9.46% to $174.04 per ChartMill and best S&P return +11.0% vs Moderna worst -17.6% per Trefis. Catalyst substantive: beat forecasts and lifted full-year profit outlook closing at $176.52 ranking among strongest performers after beating forecasts. Earnings Q3 $2.60 vs est $2.50 +4.00% surprise. Gap up before open previously closed $159.00 opened at $170.00 last $169.7470 on 280,830 shares. Upgraded to Buy at BofA target $200 from $164. Intraday evidence: latest_price 177.04 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z, source https://finnhub.io, type delayed regular-session, previous close 176.52. Reference_price 177.04 consistent with current. Pre-event close $159.00, observed event-to-quote +11.33%. Partial session Oct 23: open 178.85 high 179.47 low 176.015 prev close 176.52. Substantive beat and raise supports continuation up. Counter-evidence: daily avg volume 332,315 vs 1.0M suggests move on modest volume. Invalidation: close below $159.00 gap base.
   Return: 0.83%; alpha: 0.15%.
3. MRNA down — confidence 65%. Biggest S&P loser Oct 22 -23.41% to $188.26 per ChartMill and -17.57% to $202.63 per wallstreetnumbers and -17.5% to $202.91 per MarketWall. Catalyst substantive negative: dramatic 17.57% decline closing at $202.63 despite reporting clinically meaningful Phase 3 results for personalized melanoma treatment intismeran autogene, with leaked 42% data escaping control and 61.7% mix not print concerns. Previous close $245.81 to $202.63 drop. Volume 49,947,212 vs avg 21.22M. Intraday evidence: latest_price 198.75 USD current 198.75 open 196.69 high 203.47 low 183 prev close 202.63 per finnhub, quote_time 2026-10-23T13:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io, type delayed regular-session. Reference_price 198.75 consistent. Pre-event $245.81, observed event-to-quote -19.13% to 198.75. Partial session Oct 23: open 196.69 high 203.47 low 183. Substantive disappointment vs high expectations supports continuation down. Counter-evidence: 6-month return +276.06% and YTD +573.96% shows strong momentum and RSI washed out; high volume capitulation may mark bottom. Invalidation: close above $241.3 Oct 22 high.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: -1.62%.
4. TTMI up — confidence 60%. Top US loser Oct 22 -27.64% to $73.92 per MarketWall and -27.67% per CappNotes and -27.7% circuit-board maker beat every line and still fell 27.7% on record quarter per theinference.org and -28.26% per stockwatch open 83.75 high 84.09 low 71.71 close 73.89 volume 17,480,745. Catalyst substantive: Q3 earnings before open Oct 22 record results but supply chain wait times expanded to 24 weeks driving data center and networking division 10% below internal targets. Stock already down 67% from 52-week high $223.83 as of close Oct 22. AI hardware rout Nasdaq -2.6% worst since June. Intraday evidence: latest_price 78.73 USD current 78.73 open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629 prev close 73.89 per finnhub, quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z, source https://finnhub.io, type delayed regular-session showing bounce +6.55% intraday. Reference_price 78.73 consistent. Pre-event close $102.15 Oct 21, observed event-to-quote -22.91% to 78.73. Partial session Oct 23: open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629. Substantive miss on supply chain but beat on financials suggests overreaction supports reversal up. Counter-evidence: average daily traded value 299.15M and beta 2.23 high volatility, downtrend -37.43% 1-month. Invalidation: close below $71.71 Oct 22 low.
   Return: 8.18%; alpha: 7.51%.
5. CRS up — confidence 58%. Large-cap loser Oct 22 -20.62% to $292.26 per AAII and globalbankingandfinance, close $292.26 -20.62% below prev $368.16, gapped down previously closed $368.16 opened at $330.00 volume 427,473. Catalyst substantive: Q3 earnings Oct 22 revenue miss viewed as especially concerning given elevated valuation though earnings growth margins outlook positive. Valuation heightened reaction. Market cap $24.3B as of Oct 22. Intraday evidence: latest_price 286.315 USD current 286.315 open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165 prev close 292.26 per finnhub, quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z, source https://finnhub.io, type delayed regular-session down -2.03% intraday. Reference_price 286.315 consistent. Pre-event close $368.16, observed event-to-quote -22.23% to 286.315. Partial session Oct 23: open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165. Substantive revenue miss but stock already -53.31% below historical high $625.99 July 6 2026 suggests overreaction supports reversal up. Counter-evidence: 50-day avg $428.25 and 200-day $480.10 well above price, downtrend -27.52% 1-month. Invalidation: close above $368.16 prior close would actually confirm reversal strength; failure would be break below $262.25 52-week low.
   Return: 1.03%; alpha: 0.35%.

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Gemini 3 Pro

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The US equity market exhibits pronounced sector rotation driven by Q3 earnings reports and telecom tower infrastructure catalysts. Wireless infrastructure names (CCI, AMT, SBAC) are surging on high trading volume following reports of direct-to-cell tower leasing discussions with SpaceX. Conversely, select telecom equipment suppliers and optical semiconductor vendors (NOK, VIAV) face sharp downside momentum following earnings sell-the-news reactions and sector-wide risk off sentiment. We expect continuation in catalyst-backed tower gainers and mean-reversion in oversold tech/telecom decliners.

1. CCI up — confidence 78%. Crown Castle surge is driven by news reports on October 22, 2026, indicating SpaceX is in discussions to secure access to up to 80,000 cell sites for its Starlink cellular service. Coupled with raising its full-year 2026 AFFO guidance midpoint, the stock opened significantly higher. Latest quote is USD 91.23 as of intraday market activity on October 23, 2026. The catalyst represents a structural TAM expansion for tower infrastructure, supporting strong upward continuation into the next session.
   Return: -1.13%; alpha: -1.81%.
2. AMT up — confidence 75%. American Tower is advancing rapidly alongside sector peer CCI following broad analyst upgrades from Barclays and Goldman Sachs regarding SpaceX low-band spectrum utilization and tower leasing prospects. Latest price is USD 202.00 as of intraday market action on October 23, 2026, marking a fresh 52-week high. Given the strong sector-wide tailwind and institutional re-rating, upward continuation is expected.
   Return: -2.08%; alpha: -2.75%.
3. SBAC up — confidence 72%. SBA Communications traded significantly higher alongside its peer group (CCI, AMT) on October 23, 2026, benefiting directly from tower industry tailwinds. Latest price is USD 197.37 as of intraday trading on October 23, 2026. The stock had previously been trading at a steep discount relative to its historical valuation metrics. The sector-wide momentum points toward a continuation of this upward re-rating.
   Return: -3.33%; alpha: -4.00%.
4. NOK up — confidence 68%. Nokia dropped 14.81% in the source session following a classic sell-the-news response to its Q3 2026 earnings release. Although Q3 earnings beat consensus, investor concerns over free cash flow generation, restructuring expenses, and supply chain constraints triggered heavy selling. Latest quote is USD 7.92 on October 23, 2026. Given the earnings beat, core AI-RAN growth partnerships, and an overdone decline, a mean-reversion reversal higher is anticipated.
   Return: 2.92%; alpha: 2.25%.
5. VIAV up — confidence 65%. Viavi Solutions declined 14.38% on October 22, 2026, amidst broad technology and optical network sector weakness ahead of its upcoming earnings release. Latest quote is USD 32.24 as of regular session activity. Despite the severe sell-off, Wall Street consensus remains Moderate Buy with an average price target of $55.43, citing strong year-over-year revenue growth. The sharp drop appears exaggerated relative to company fundamentals, setting up a reversal higher.
   Return: -0.35%; alpha: -1.03%.

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Grok 4.7

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October 22 saw a sharp rotation out of AI-linked technology and photonics names amid spending doubts and higher yields, while select industrials and consumer names rallied on solid Q3 earnings beats and guidance raises. Extreme movers meeting liquidity screens were dominated by earnings-driven gainers in pools, security products and metering plus sell-the-news and sector-driven declines in biotech and optical components. Near-term continuation is favored where catalysts are fundamental and volume-supported; sentiment-driven moves face higher reversal risk.

1. POOL up — confidence 72%. Pool Corporation ranked among the session’s largest percentage gainers after reporting Q3 results that showed sales growth of about 4% to $1.5 billion and confirmed annual EPS guidance, a substantive operational beat that drove a +14.36% close-to-close advance on elevated volume. The move closed near the session high after a gap-up open, supporting continuation of the positive re-rating into the next session rather than immediate fade. Latest verified quote is approximately 197.95 USD as of mid-morning regular session on 2026-10-23 (Yahoo Finance, live/delayed), roughly flat-to-slightly higher than the prior close and indicating limited further digestion so far. Price history shows a strong close within the day’s range on roughly 2.8× average volume, consistent with demand rather than exhaustion; the 20-session context remains below longer-term highs. Catalyst is substantive (earnings and guidance) rather than pure sentiment. Strongest counter-evidence is the size of the single-day advance after a multi-week recovery, which can invite profit-taking. Thesis would be invalidated by a sustained break back below the October 22 open near 175 or a clear negative guidance revision.
   Return: 1.14%; alpha: 0.47%.
2. ALLE up — confidence 70%. Allegion was a top S&P 500 gainer after reporting a Q3 beat (adjusted EPS $2.60 vs ~$2.50 consensus, revenue $1.17 billion vs ~$1.14 billion) and raising full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance, a clear substantive catalyst that produced an ~+11% close. The stock closed near the high of a gap-up range on above-average volume. Latest quote is approximately 177.5–178 USD mid-morning on 2026-10-23 (Yahoo Finance / stockanalysis.com, regular session), modestly above the prior close. Five-day path shows steady prior strength culminating in the earnings gap; volume expansion supports continuation. Catalyst is fundamental (beat + raised outlook). Strongest counter-evidence is the stock’s proximity to recent highs and the possibility of a classic post-earnings fade. Thesis invalidated by a break below the October 22 open near 170 or a subsequent guidance cut.
   Return: 0.83%; alpha: 0.15%.
3. BMI up — confidence 65%. Badger Meter was among the largest percentage gainers after reporting Q3 results that delivered an EPS beat ($1.24 vs roughly $1.21–1.23 consensus) and sequential base-sales improvement with margin expansion, plus a dividend increase; the stock advanced +13.48% to close at 149.64 on elevated volume. Latest quote is approximately 148–150 USD mid-morning on 2026-10-23 (various sources, regular session), modestly lower than the prior close. The session closed near the high of a wide range after a gap, supporting continuation of the positive reaction. Catalyst is substantive (earnings and sequential trends). Strongest counter-evidence is the flat year-over-year revenue and the possibility of a fade after the large percentage move. Thesis invalidated by a sustained break below the October 22 open near 130 or a deterioration in sequential sales commentary.
   Return: 2.58%; alpha: 1.90%.
4. MRNA down — confidence 60%. Moderna was the largest S&P 500 percentage decliner after a leak of Phase 3 melanoma-vaccine data (in combination with Keytruda) showed a 42% reduction in recurrence/death risk—positive but below the prior Phase 2b figure and market expectations after a massive year-to-date rally—triggering a classic sell-the-news reaction of roughly −17.6% to a close near 202.63 on very high volume. The move is more sentiment-driven than a fundamental change in the data quality. Latest quote is approximately 195–200 USD mid-morning on 2026-10-23 (various sources including Yahoo/MarketWatch, regular session), still below the prior close and consistent with continued pressure. Five-day path shows extreme volatility and a long lower wick on the 22nd, but the close was well off the lows; volume was elevated. Strongest counter-evidence is that the trial data themselves were described as solid by several analysts and the stock had already corrected substantially. Thesis (continuation lower) would be invalidated by a decisive reclaim of the October 22 open near 240 or positive additional data at the scheduled ESMO presentation.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: -1.62%.
5. COHR down — confidence 58%. Coherent declined roughly 12.5% to a close of 207.82 as part of a broad sell-off in AI-linked optical and photonics names driven by renewed doubts about capital spending, higher yields, and analyst price-target reductions; the move was sector-wide rather than company-specific. Latest quote is approximately 210–213 USD mid-morning on 2026-10-23 (stockanalysis.com and others, regular session), modestly above the prior close. The session showed a wide range with a close well off the lows but still a large percentage loss on elevated volume. Catalyst is primarily sentiment/sector rotation rather than a change in Coherent’s own fundamentals. Strongest counter-evidence is the absence of negative company-specific news and the stock’s already substantial drawdown from recent highs. Thesis (continuation lower) would be invalidated by a sustained reclaim of the October 22 open area near 223 or a positive company-specific update.
   Return: 0.05%; alpha: -0.73%.

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DeepSeek

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US equities enter the October 23 session after a risk-off Thursday in which semiconductors and high-multiple biotech names bore the brunt of selling. I favor names where the verified catalyst and the latest regular-session quote still point in the same direction, and I treat the post-catalyst fade in BHVN as a reversal rather than continuation. The book is therefore tilted defensively, with one earnings-relief continuation long and four short-side selections.

1. MRNA down — confidence 72%. Rank 1. Moderna fell 17.57% on October 22 after partial Phase 3 cancer-vaccine data leaked, even though the full data later showed a 42% reduction in recurrence or death versus Keytruda alone. The catalyst is substantive but sentiment-driven: the stock had already risen sharply year-to-date before the leak, and the session closed near the bottom of its range on roughly 50 million shares, more than double its 20-day average. The latest live regular-session quote is $199.70 at 2026-10-23T10:48:47-04:00, down 1.45% from the $202.63 prior close, confirming that selling pressure has persisted into the target session. Reference price and OHLC come from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/; market cap of $80.90B comes from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrna/statistics/. The strongest counter-evidence is that the full data were positive and the stock closed well above its $180.80 intraday low, so leak-driven selling could exhaust. Invalidation: a close above the October 22 high of $241.26 would undermine the bearish continuation thesis.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: -1.62%.
2. LRCX up — confidence 70%. Rank 2. Lam Research dropped 11.76% on October 22 despite an earnings beat, as December-quarter guidance of $8.6B was capped by supply constraints and fell short of elevated whispers. The catalyst is substantive and fundamental, but the sell-the-news reaction was extreme: the stock closed at $230.15, near its $227.68 low, on 22.96 million shares, about 2.4 times its 20-day average. The latest live regular-session quote is $231.74 at 2026-10-23T10:47:59-04:00, up 0.69% from the prior close, indicating stabilization rather than fresh liquidation. That supports a reversal up rather than further downside continuation. Reference price and OHLC come from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/; market cap of $287.49B comes from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lrcx/statistics/. The strongest counter-evidence is that the daily close was weak and the guidance disappointment is real; if semiconductor selling resumes, the bounce could fail. Invalidation: a close back below the October 22 low of $227.68 would undermine the reversal thesis.
   Return: 2.96%; alpha: 2.28%.
3. ATI down — confidence 67%. Rank 3. ATI fell 10.43% on October 22 with no company-specific news; the decline fits a broader risk-off move in aerospace, defense and specialty-materials names tied to rising yields and oil prices. The catalyst is therefore speculative and sector-driven rather than a change in ATI's business expectations. The stock closed at $161.84, near its $155.34 low, on 3.74 million shares, about 2.7 times its 20-day average, which supports continuation of the de-risking. The latest live regular-session quote is $157.64 at 2026-10-23T10:36:13-04:00, down another 2.60%, confirming that sellers remain in control. Reference price and OHLC come from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ATI/history/; market cap of $22.04B comes from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ati/statistics/. The strongest counter-evidence is that ATI has no company-specific negative catalyst and its RSI near 27 is deeply oversold, so a sector rebound could produce a sharp reversal. Invalidation: a close above the October 22 high of $169.32 would undermine the down-continuation thesis.
   Return: 2.22%; alpha: -2.90%.
4. BHVN down — confidence 66%. Rank 4. Biohaven jumped 25.02% on October 22 after the FDA accepted its NDA resubmission for Vyglxia in spinocerebellar ataxia, but the stock opened at $16.10, peaked at $16.54 and closed at $14.69, leaving a large upper wick and a close near the session low. That price action argues that the regulatory headline was sold rather than accumulated. The latest live regular-session quote is $14.26 at 2026-10-23T10:48:05-04:00, down 2.96% from the prior close, confirming the post-catalyst fade. The catalyst is substantive but speculative: FDA acceptance is progress, yet approval is not assured and an advisory committee is expected. Reference price and OHLC come from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHVN/history/; market cap of $2.219B comes from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bhvn/statistics/. The strongest counter-evidence is that the FDA acceptance is a genuine positive and the stock still closed up 25%, so the fade could be temporary profit-taking rather than a reversal. Invalidation: a close above the October 22 high of $16.54 would undermine the reversal-down thesis.
   Return: 3.26%; alpha: -3.94%.
5. POOL up — confidence 62%. Rank 5. Pool Corp rose 14.36% on October 22 after Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.40 beat the $3.37 consensus and management confirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17. The catalyst is substantive but not a guidance raise: the relief rally reflects a low bar after prior downgrades and margin pressure. The stock opened at $175.30, closed at $197.21 near the $197.36 high, and traded 2.19 million shares, about 2.6 times its 20-day average, which supports continuation. The latest live regular-session quote is $197.95 at 2026-10-23T10:47:27-04:00, up 0.37%, showing that gains are holding. Reference price and OHLC come from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POOL/history/; market cap of $6.27B comes from https://www.heygotrade.com/en/us-stock/pool/. The strongest counter-evidence is that POOL remains below its 200-day moving average near $204, RSI is about 74, and guidance was only reaffirmed, so the rally may be near exhaustion. Invalidation: a close below the October 22 low of $175.30 would fill the earnings gap and undermine the continuation thesis.
   Return: 1.14%; alpha: 0.47%.

Full prediction and audit record

Claude Opus 5.5

View full picks and reasoning

Source session is Thursday 2026-10-22, the last regular session completed before prediction_time. The Nasdaq fell more than 2% that day on AI-capex and credit worries plus higher oil, and the losers list was dominated by AI hardware and semicap names. The gainers were mostly earnings beats in defensive and quality industrials, plus rate-sensitive housing names that rose as bond yields fell. On Friday 10-23 the selling broadened: CNBC live coverage reported the Dow down more than 800 points on Middle East tensions while chips bounced slightly (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stock-market-today-live-update.html). I screened about 3,500 Yahoo-listed US equities above roughly $0.9B market cap for their 10-22 close-to-close change, then kept only exchange-listed common stocks with price >= $5, market cap >= $1B and 20-day ADV >= $20M. Picks lean on post-earnings drift where the catalyst is substantive: continuation down for two misses or disappointments (GGG, CRS), and continuation up for two beat-and-raise quality compounders (ALLE, WCN) that should hold up better in a risk-off tape. The one reversal is MRNA, where Thursday's 17.6% drop left a very long lower wick, today's dip to 183 was bought, and full ESMO melanoma data on 10-24 falls inside the window. That makes it a binary, low-confidence pick. Main portfolio risk: a sharp broad-market selloff into Monday would hurt both up picks, and a relief rally in beaten-down industrials would hurt the two down picks.

1. GGG down — confidence 58%. Source session 10-22: closed 69.28 vs 81.81 (-15.32%). Price passes all screens (Yahoo intraday market cap ~$10.87B, 20-day ADV ~$132M). Catalyst (fact): Q3 2026 results after the 10-21 close (SEC exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000042888/000004288826000145/ggg10212026exhibit991q3.htm). The results showed record sales up 8%, but only 4 points organic. Gross margin fell about 3 points, operating earnings fell 10% and diluted EPS fell 9%. Revenue and EPS missed consensus (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Graco+Inc.+%28GGG%29+Stock+Falls+on+Q3+2026+Earnings). A German Goldesel summary reported Q4 revenue guidance of $610-640M, below consensus (https://goldesel.de/aktien/news/graco-aktie-q4-umsatzprognose-bleibt-hinter-erwartungen-zuruck). This is a substantive fundamental disappointment: margin compression plus a soft guide, in a stock that trades at a quality premium. Inference: estimate cuts and multiple de-rating usually take more than one session. Price path: gapped down to 73.11, sold to 67.74 and closed in the lower quarter of the range on 3.3x average volume, with no intraday buyback. Intraday evidence: latest_price 68.04 at 2026-10-23T15:00:17Z (Yahoo Finance regular-session intraday quote, labeled real-time; delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of ~15:00Z: open 68.24, high 68.54, low 66.55 (a new 20-day low), cumulative volume 722,586. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Elapsed window: the price at 14:31Z was 66.95, so the stock has already bounced about +1.6% against the call. The remaining forecast is a further decline toward and below the 66.55 intraday low by Monday's window end. Risks: an oversold bounce after a 15% day, buyback support (the company repurchased $132M of stock in Q3), and the ABB data-center cooling partnership as a positive narrative.
   Return: -0.16%; alpha: -0.52%.
2. ALLE up — confidence 56%. Source session 10-22: closed 176.52 vs 159.00 (+11.02%). Price passes all screens (Yahoo intraday market cap ~$15.18B, 20-day ADV ~$165M). Catalyst (fact): Q3 2026 results released 10-22 (SEC exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001579241/000157924126000032/exhibit991-pressreleasedat.htm). Revenue rose 9.6% (7.2% organic) and adjusted EPS of $2.60 was up 13%. Adjusted operating margin reached 24.7%, and the company raised full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. This is a substantive beat-and-raise in a non-discretionary security business; Americas non-residential strength is the stated driver. Inference: analysts will raise estimates, and the stock has a pattern of post-earnings drift (it rose about 12% after its July beat-and-raise). Price path: gapped up to 170, extended to 176.94 and closed at 0.95 of the range on 2.0x average volume. That is a clean breakout above the prior 20-day range (prior high about 159). Intraday evidence: latest_price 178.84 at 2026-10-23T15:00:02Z (Yahoo Finance regular-session intraday quote; delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of ~15:00Z: open 178.85, high 179.45, low 176.17, cumulative volume 434,452. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Notably the stock is holding gains while the Dow is down sharply. Elapsed window: price at 14:31Z was 176.29, so about +1.4% has already been realized and is not counted as future opportunity. The remaining forecast is modest further upside by Monday. Risks: a broad risk-off selloff and profit-taking after an 11% move.
   Return: 0.83%; alpha: 0.15%.
3. WCN up — confidence 55%. Source session 10-22: closed 184.88 vs 168.28 (+9.86%). Price passes all screens (Yahoo intraday market cap ~$46.6B, 20-day ADV ~$326M). Catalyst (fact): Q3 2026 results after the 10-21 close (SEC exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318220/000110465926117838/wcn-ex99d1.htm). Revenue was $2.638B vs $2.458B a year ago, net income $1.43/share vs $1.11, and the company raised its full-year outlook again. It also cited improving landfill volumes, stronger commodity-related revenue and over $1B of year-to-date buybacks. Secondary summaries report an adjusted EPS beat and a 10% dividend increase (Goldesel, German-language). This is a substantive beat-and-raise in a defensive, non-cyclical business. Inference: in a risk-off tape (Dow down 800+ today), solid-waste names tend to attract defensive flows, which favors holding or extending the move. Price path: Yahoo shows the 10-22 open at the session low of 166.35 and a close at 0.90 of the range on 2.6x average volume. The open print may be a data artifact given the after-close report, and I could not confirm the actual opening gap. Intraday evidence: latest_price 185.90 at 2026-10-23T14:59:59Z (Yahoo Finance regular-session intraday quote; delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of ~15:00Z: open 184.46, high 186.87, low 184.16, cumulative volume 653,103. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Elapsed window: price at 14:31Z was 185.74, essentially flat. The remaining forecast is a small further gain. Low-volatility stock, so the expected magnitude is modest.
   Return: 0.57%; alpha: -0.10%.
4. CRS down — confidence 52%. Source session 10-22: closed 292.26 vs 368.16 (-20.62%). Price passes all screens (Yahoo intraday market cap ~$14.13B, 20-day ADV ~$294M). Catalyst (fact): fiscal Q1 2027 results released before the open on 10-22 (SEC exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000017843/000001784326000049/a1stqtrfy2027results.htm). Net sales were $798.2M (+9%), sales excluding surcharge rose only 5%, and operating income was $196.4M. Free cash flow was negative $24.8M as capex nearly doubled. Operating income landed only in the lower half of the company's own $195-200M guide (guide: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/carpenter-technology-q4-earnings-call-highlights-2026-07-31/). Hexcel, another aerospace-materials supplier, also fell about 9.5% the same day, suggesting sector-level aerospace concern. I could not verify the specific call commentary (guidance or aerospace demand) that drove a move this large. That is a gap: the catalyst is substantive but the exact trigger is partly inferred. Price path: opened at 330, which was the session high, then sold off and closed near the low (0.17 of range) on 3.4x average volume. The stock is now well below its 20-day range after a 23% five-day decline. Intraday evidence: latest_price 285.59 at about 2026-10-23T15:00Z (Yahoo Finance regular-session intraday quote; delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of ~15:00Z: open 284.00, high 288.11, low 278.17 (a new low below the 10-22 low), cumulative volume 640,693. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Elapsed window: price at 14:31Z was 286.67, so about -0.4% has been realized. The remaining forecast is further de-rating of a high-multiple name.
   Return: 1.03%; alpha: -1.70%.
5. MRNA up — confidence 45%. Source session 10-22: closed 202.63 vs 245.81 (-17.57%). Price passes all screens (Yahoo intraday market cap ~$81.0B, 20-day ADV ~$4.09B). Catalyst (fact): CNBC reported that Moderna fell 25% intraday on Thursday after a leak of partial data on its personalized cancer vaccine with Merck. CNBC also said the full data released Thursday appeared meaningful for patients and positive relative to Wall Street expectations (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stock-market-today-live-update.html). The detailed melanoma presentation is scheduled at ESMO in Madrid on 10-24, inside the scored window (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/20/moderna-jumps-7-while-melanoma-vaccine-data-looms-bristol-myers-squibb-rises-5-pfizer-inches-higher/). Inference: Thursday's crash looks like a sell-the-news unwind of a crowded run-up into the data, not a negative read on efficacy. That makes a reversal plausible, but the weekend presentation is a binary event in either direction. Price path: the stock ran up into the event (high 254.48 on 10-21), then on 10-22 crashed to 180.80 and recovered to close at 202.63, a very long lower wick on 2.6x average volume. Intraday evidence: latest_price 203.21 at 2026-10-23T15:00:18Z (Yahoo Finance regular-session intraday quote; delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of ~15:00Z: open 196.69, high 203.82, low 183.00, cumulative volume 10,600,016. CNBC reported the stock about 5.7% lower premarket. Today's flush to 183 held above the 10-22 low and was bought back above the prior close. Elapsed window: price at 14:31Z was 199.83, so about +1.7% has been realized. The remaining forecast is a further rebound if the ESMO presentation confirms the data. Low confidence because of the binary weekend event and the stock's extreme volatility.
   Return: 0.94%; alpha: 0.27%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Extreme Movers + OHLC

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers + OHLC runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg directions called correctly	Avg directional return
Grok	1	80.00%	+1.42%
GPT-6	9	60.00%	+1.29%
Perplexity	7	54.29%	+0.98%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	3	71.67%	+0.96%
Grok 4.7	1	60.00%	+0.71%
Muse Spark 1.1	9	60.00%	+0.60%
DeepSeek	8	50.00%	-0.20%
Grok 4.5	4	35.00%	-0.54%
Claude Opus 5.5	3	60.00%	-0.69%
Gemini 3 Pro	4	45.00%	-0.72%
Grok 4	1	40.00%	-1.54%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	1	0.00%	-3.67%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
ALLE	176.12500000	177.58000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/
AMT	193.86000000	189.83500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT/history/
ATI	157.75500000	161.26000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ATI/history/
BHVN	14.09000000	14.55000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHVN/history/
BMI	148.64000000	152.47000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMI/history/
BX	116.26500000	118.06000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BX/history/
CCI	88.72000000	87.71500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/
COHR	212.39000000	212.50000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COHR/history/
CRS	286.03000000	288.97010000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRS/history/
GGG	67.01500000	66.91000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GGG/history/
LRCX	229.12240000	235.89500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/
MRNA	198.79000000	200.66500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
NOK	8.21000000	8.45000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOK/history/
POOL	194.99500000	197.22000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POOL/history/
ROP	435.22500000	447.93000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROP/history/
SBAC	192.94000000	186.51500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBAC/history/
SPY	759.66000000	764.78100000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
TTMI	77.48000000	83.82000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTMI/history/
VIAV	31.31000000	31.20000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VIAV/history/
WCN	185.73500000	186.80000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WCN/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11+ohlc3, SHA-256 e6e8435511aa6e648624a634376e7b7dc8c2fb4aea90f73ee52942c6d48bd519. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-ohlc-v1.