Oct 26, 2026 - 6 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 2 models finished positive

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Asked Oct 26, 10:05 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Grok 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 26, 10:05 AM EDT to Oct 27, 10:05 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYDirectional return
Muse Spark 1.13/560.00%2.66%0.36%2.66%
Perplexity1/520.00%-4.76%0.36%-4.76%
Grok 4.72/540.00%-2.57%0.36%-2.57%
Claude Sonnet 5.52/540.00%-0.50%0.36%-0.50%
GPT-64/580.00%2.41%0.36%2.41%
DeepSeek2/540.00%-1.34%0.36%-1.34%

Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Friday Oct 23 2026 was a split session: S&P 500 -0.52% on oil and rates, but with sharp idiosyncratic moves. Fuel-cell and AI-infrastructure names sold off on cash-flow concerns, telecoms sold off on speculative SpaceX fourth-carrier fears, while cybersecurity and tower REITs rallied on safety bid and potential SpaceX lease upside. With the window opening into Monday Oct 26, many Friday laggards already bouncing intraday, the bias is for reversal of overdone speculative telecom fears and continuation of fundamentally supported cybersecurity and tower momentum.

  1. BE up — confidence 62%. Ranked #1 loser among large caps: fell 11.24% on Oct 23 to $193.30 after earnings. Catalyst verified: Q3 beat and raised 2026 revenue outlook to $4.4B-$4.6B but negative free cash flow of $181M and negative operating cash flow spooked investors. Source describes beat-and-raise with cash concerns. This is substantive fundamental deterioration, not pure sentiment, but revenue raise is positive. Price action: 5-day performance -13.40% with high volume 35.86M shares on Oct 23 vs avg 15.20M, indicating capitulation; close near low of day $189-$206 range suggests exhaustion. Latest_price: $206.59 at 2026-10-26T14:05Z from Finnhub current price $206.59 open $193 high $206.74 low $192.15 previous close $193.3 change +6.87%. Quote is delayed intraday regular-session on Oct 26. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 26: open $193, high_so_far $206.74, low_so_far $192.15, volume not verified. Observed event-to-quote move: from Oct 23 close $193.30 to $206.59 = +6.87% already reflecting reversal. Remaining thesis: continuation of bounce as cash-flow fear was known and market already repriced 28% monthly drop. Counter_evidence: negative FCF and high beta 3.68 may pressure if rates rise; volume spike may still be distribution. Invalidation: close below $189 verified low of Oct 23 would undermine reversal.
    Return: 11.20%; alpha: 10.84%.
  2. CRWD up — confidence 70%. Ranked as top S&P 500 gainer Oct 23: rose 8.25% to $257.57 on cybersecurity rally. Catalyst verified: sector safety bid as AI build-out stocks fell; CrowdStrike rose 8.25% while market fell. Source notes CRWD +8.25% among top gainers. Substantive: demand for cybersecurity firming, not just speculation. Price action: Oct 23 open 239.29 high 257.91 low 234.79 close 257.57 volume 13,367,500 vs avg 8.62M, closing at upper wick shows continuation strength. Latest_price: $262.7957 at 2026-10-26T14:08Z from Finnhub current $262.7957 open $259.06 high $263.2799 low $254.06 previous close $257.57 change +2.02%. Quote is live/delayed regular-session Oct 26. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 26: open $259.06 high $263.27 low $254.06. Observed event-to-quote: from $257.57 to $262.79 = +2.02% showing continuation already. Remaining thesis: momentum continues into Oct 27 as 5-day return +15.57% and YTD +124% indicate trend. Counter_evidence: RSI 55.92 and price -10.25% below Oct 6 high $286.99 suggests overbought risk; high volume may mark exhaustion. Invalidation: close below $234.79 verified Oct 23 low would break momentum.
    Return: 3.54%; alpha: 3.18%.
  3. CCI up — confidence 60%. Ranked as Friday's top gainer in S&P 500 communication services: Crown Castle surged 9.06% to $85.97 on SpaceX cell-site report. Catalyst verified: Bloomberg report SpaceX in talks for access to at least 80,000 US cell sites and talks with tower owners including Crown Castle; CCI +9.06% to $85.97 and American Tower +4.08% after report. Source confirms CCI.US +9.06% to $85.97 after report. Substantive: potential new major tenant improves long-term lease cash flows. Price action: Oct 23 low $85.00 high $91.45 close $85.97 volume 17.32M vs avg 5.69M, closing off high suggests some intraday profit-taking. Latest_price: $88.57 from Finnhub current $88.57 open $86 high $89.05 low $86 previous close $85.97 change +3.02%. Quote delayed regular-session Oct 26. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 26: open $86 high $89.05 low $86. Observed move from $85.97 to $88.57 = +3.02% already reflects continuation. Remaining thesis: continuation up as tower REIT benefits from potential SpaceX deal. Counter_evidence: report is still talks, not contract; stock still down YTD -0.34% and 1-year -10.07%, indicating structural headwinds; high volume may be one-day spike. Invalidation: denial of SpaceX talks or close below $85.00 low.
    Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.80%.
  4. T up — confidence 55%. Ranked among top S&P 500 losers Oct 23: AT&T fell 7.96% to $20.93 on Starlink competition fears as SpaceX eyes 80K cell sites. Catalyst verified: AT&T drops 7.96% on Starlink fears, SpaceX eyes 80K sites. Source confirms fear. Speculative: no SpaceX carrier built yet, long regulatory path, AT&T has fiber and scale. Price action: Oct 23 high $22.21 low $20.92 volume 99,813,648 vs avg ~45M, washout. Latest_price: $21.065 from Finnhub current $21.065 open $20.7 high $21.21 low $20.62 previous close $20.93 change +0.71%. Quote live regular-session Oct 26. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 26: open $20.7 high $21.21 low $20.62. Observed move from $20.93 to $21.065 = +0.64% small bounce already. Remaining thesis: reversal up as fear overblown, oversold RSI likely. Counter_evidence: telecom competition concern is substantive if SpaceX enters; AT&T 1-month -17% and 5-day -10.13% downtrend may continue. Invalidation: confirmed SpaceX deal with tower owners or close below $20.62 intraday low.
    Return: -0.64%; alpha: -1.00%.
  5. TMUS up — confidence 55%. Ranked among top losers Oct 23: T-Mobile US fell 7.71% to $146.54 on same SpaceX competition concerns. Catalyst verified: T-Mobile falls 7.71% on competition concerns with SpaceX eyes 80K cell sites. Source confirms. Speculative similar to T, as fourth carrier would take years. Price action: close $146.54 down 12.25 points volume elevated. Latest_price: $146.38 from Finnhub current $146.38 open $145.805 previous close $146.54 change -0.10%. Quote live regular-session Oct 26 showing flat after drop. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 26: open $145.80 high not verified low not verified. Observed event-to-quote: from $146.54 to $146.38 = -0.10% flat, indicating fear may be stabilizing. Remaining thesis: reversal up as oversold support at $146.32 52-week low. Counter_evidence: TMUS down 27.83% YTD and -32.71% YoY, downtrend; competition risk more substantive for T-Mobile as wireless pure-play. Invalidation: close below $146.32 52-week low or confirmed SpaceX carrier launch.
    Return: 0.67%; alpha: 0.31%.

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Perplexity

Perplexity: each pick's move beside SPY's

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The source session, Friday 2026-10-23, produced unusually large single-stock moves around earnings, clinical data, M&A speculation and telecom competition news. I favor selective continuation where the catalyst changes fundamental expectations (GMAB) or where a high-quality selloff has not clearly resolved (BE), while treating speculative or vertically extended moves (CART, RHI) and an unconfirmed biotech collapse (CORT) as reversal candidates. All five names pass the stated price, market-cap and liquidity screens at the figures checked.

  1. GMAB up — confidence 62%. Genmab rose 9.48% on Friday after announcing updated Phase 2 follow-up results for petosemtamab in metastatic colorectal cancer showing meaningful objective response rates, and separately announced a clinical-trial collaboration with Incyte; these are substantive clinical catalysts rather than purely sentiment-driven news. The latest verifiable quote was 45.00 USD in pre-market trading at 2026-10-26T06:29:14-04:00, a further 2.76% above the 43.79 USD source-session close, suggesting initial follow-through. Because previous_change_percent was positive, direction up with continuation is the permitted combination. The stock closed at its session high of 44.34, above the prior close of 40.00, on 13,000,825 shares versus a reported average volume of 3,202,584 shares, supporting a momentum interpretation. Counter-evidence is that the move already put shares at a 52-week high and pre-market gains can fade; the clinical readout is early-phase follow-up data, not a near-term revenue event. Invalidation would be a close back below the 43.79 USD source-session close or a company statement qualifying the petosemtamab results. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated as the verified latest quote multiplied by Yahoo's reported 20-day average share volume.
    Return: -1.12%; alpha: -1.47%.
  2. RHI down — confidence 55%. Robert Half jumped 21.74% on Friday after Q3 results: Yahoo reported EPS of 0.49 versus a 0.47 estimate and revenue of 1.36 billion USD, with coverage describing growth in Talent Solutions for the first time since 2022. This is a substantive earnings catalyst, but the reaction was extreme: the latest available quote was 45.86 USD in after-hours trading at 2026-10-23T19:57:39-04:00, essentially flat versus the 45.87 USD close. With previous_change_percent positive, a reversal call requires direction down. The stock closed at 47.14 intraday high territory after a 41.00-47.14 range, and both J.P. Morgan (Neutral, target raised to 45) and Goldman Sachs (Sell, target raised only to 33) remained below the market price, implying limited perceived upside after the move. Counter-evidence is that the earnings beat and volume of 6,892,870 shares versus 2,030,470 average shares could sustain follow-through. Invalidation would be a regular-session close above 47.14 USD, the verified source-session high. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated from the latest quote and reported average share volume.
    Return: -5.34%; alpha: 4.99%.
  3. CART down — confidence 52%. Maplebear (Instacart) gained 9.21% on Friday after Bloomberg-reported exploration of a potential sale, with Uber and DoorDash named as potential counterparties. This catalyst is speculative: no transaction, offer, or confirmed process was verified, so the move primarily reflects takeover expectations rather than a change in reported operating results. The latest verifiable quote was 56.45 USD in after-hours trading at 2026-10-23T19:59:33-04:00, flat versus the 51.68 USD prior close-derived 56.44 USD session close. With previous_change_percent positive, reversal implies direction down. The stock closed just below its 57.98 session high and 52-week high after volume of 16,098,050 shares versus 4,039,581 average shares, indicating a crowded, news-driven spike. Counter-evidence is that genuine strategic interest could produce further upside or a confirmed bid. Invalidation would be a regular-session close above 57.98 USD or credible confirmation of a sale process. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated from the latest quote and reported average share volume.
    Return: 11.77%; alpha: -12.12%.
  4. BE down — confidence 55%. Bloom Energy fell 11.24% on Friday despite reporting Q3 EPS of 0.94 versus a 0.68 estimate and revenue of 1.24 billion USD. The selloff appears tied to investor concern over the largest opportunity pipeline: coverage cited Jefferies flagging a lack of updates on the Oracle opportunity, while Oppenheimer noted negative operating cash flow and Citi called the stock crowded. This is a mixed but substantive catalyst: the reported quarter was strong, but the market appeared to reduce confidence in near-term conversion of the AI-power order pipeline. The latest verifiable quote was 191.06 USD in overnight trading at 2026-10-23T20:58:59-04:00, down another 1.16%. With previous_change_percent negative, continuation implies direction down. The stock opened at 203.01, fell to a 189.00 low and closed at 193.30 on 35,824,073 shares versus 16,066,995 average shares; the failure to reclaim the open supports continued distribution. Counter-evidence is that several analysts maintained Buy/Overweight ratings and raised or maintained targets well above the price, creating bounce risk. Invalidation would be a regular-session close above 203.01 USD, the verified source-session open. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated from the latest quote and reported average share volume.
    Return: 11.20%; alpha: -11.56%.
  5. CORT up — confidence 45%. Corcept Therapeutics fell 20.13% on Friday from 107.50 to 85.86, with an 84.13-106.09 range and volume of 3,098,611 shares versus 1,226,734 average shares. I could not verify a specific same-day company catalyst from the sources retrieved, so the catalyst assessment is limited: the move may reflect trial, competitive, or positioning news, but that remains unconfirmed. With previous_change_percent negative, reversal implies direction up. The latest verifiable quote was 85.60 USD in overnight trading at 2026-10-23T20:59:31-04:00, down only 0.30%, suggesting the initial panic did not continue materially after hours. A 20% one-day decline in a liquid, 9.28 billion USD market-cap biotech often attracts mean-reversion flows, but this is a lower-confidence tactical reversal rather than a fundamental call. Counter-evidence is the absence of a verified explanatory catalyst and the close near the session low, both of which can precede further weakness. Invalidation would be a regular-session close below 84.13 USD, the verified source-session low. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated from the latest quote and reported average share volume.
    Return: -5.06%; alpha: -5.41%.

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Grok 4.7

Grok 4.7: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Extreme movers from the October 23 session show a mix of earnings-driven rebounds and fundamental selloffs. Positive catalysts in staffing and cybersecurity support near-term continuation higher, while cash-flow and operational issues in energy and auto parts favor further downside. SpaceX-related speculation provides a speculative boost to towers. Overall bias is toward continuation of the prior session's direction for liquid large-cap names, with elevated volume confirming conviction in several cases.

  1. RHI up — confidence 72%. Robert Half closed October 23 at $45.87 after a 21.74% surge on a Q3 earnings beat (EPS $0.49 vs. $0.47 expected) and the first return to Talent Solutions revenue growth since 2022, plus bullish commentary on high-margin AML compliance work at Protiviti. High volume (nearly 7M shares) and a close near the session high support continuation of the upside. Latest quote is approximately $46.23 as of ~10:56 AM EDT on October 26 during the regular session (Yahoo Finance), up modestly from the prior close, indicating the move is not fully exhausted. Price history shows a strong multi-day advance into a new high, consistent with the catalyst. Counter-evidence includes elevated valuation after the spike and some free-cash-flow concerns noted in coverage. Invalidation would be a close below the October 23 low of $41.00 or a reversal of the Talent Solutions growth narrative in subsequent updates. Source for prior move: Morningstar and Motley Fool earnings coverage.
    Return: -5.34%; alpha: -5.70%.
  2. LKQ down — confidence 68%. LKQ plunged 22.47% to $17.42 on October 23 after preliminary Q3 results showed a net loss, Europe organic revenue down nearly 10% due to ERP disruptions, withdrawal of full-year guidance, and an immediate CEO departure. Massive volume (23M+ shares) and a close near the low confirm heavy selling. Latest quote around $17.05 as of ~10:56 AM EDT on October 26 (Yahoo Finance) shows continued weakness, supporting further downside. The catalyst is substantive operational and leadership issues. Price history shows a breakdown to multi-month lows on high volume. Counter-evidence is the stock's low valuation and upcoming full earnings on October 29 that could clarify. Invalidation would be a close above the October 23 high of $18.29 or positive guidance restoration. Source: Benzinga and company pre-announcement coverage.
    Return: -1.62%; alpha: 1.26%.
  3. BE down — confidence 65%. Bloom Energy fell 11.24% to $193.30 on October 23 despite a strong Q3 beat (revenue +138%, raised full-year outlook) because of negative free cash flow of about $181 million and elevated capital spending for capacity expansion. High volume (36M shares) and a close well off the highs support continuation of the pullback. Latest quotes around $192-193 in early October 26 trading (MarketWatch/pre-market and partial) show limited recovery. The catalyst is substantive cash-generation concern amid high expectations for the AI power theme. Price history shows an extended run that is now correcting. Counter-evidence is the raised guidance and strong demand narrative. Invalidation would be a close above the October 23 high of $206 or improved cash-flow commentary. Source: Investopedia and Seeking Alpha earnings coverage.
    Return: 11.20%; alpha: -11.56%.
  4. CCI up — confidence 70%. Crown Castle gained 9.06% to $85.97 on October 23 on reports that SpaceX is seeking to lease space on up to 80,000 U.S. cell sites, with the company confirming it is in discussions with satellite providers. Elevated volume (17M shares) supports the move. Latest pre-market and early quotes around $86.5 on October 26 show the gain holding. The catalyst is speculative but positive for tower demand. Price history shows a sharp breakout from recent ranges. Counter-evidence is that no definitive agreement has been announced and core site-rental revenue remains soft. Invalidation would be a close below the October 23 low of $85 or denial of material SpaceX discussions. Source: Benzinga, Bloomberg reports, and company commentary.
    Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.80%.
  5. CRWD up — confidence 74%. CrowdStrike rose 8.25% to $257.57 on October 23 amid cybersecurity sector strength driven by critical PHP vulnerabilities (affecting a large share of websites) and positive channel checks on AI security spending, plus CEO comments on expected breaches. Solid volume and a strong close support continuation. Latest quotes around $257.5 in early October 26 trading show the gains holding. The catalyst is substantive demand-pull from active threats. Price history shows a bounce from recent lows with higher volume. Counter-evidence is the stock's elevated valuation and broader market pressure. Invalidation would be a close below the October 23 low of $234.79 or fading threat urgency. Source: CNBC, Evercore survey coverage, and sector reports.
    Return: 3.54%; alpha: 3.18%.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5

Claude Sonnet 5.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Source session is Friday 2026-10-23: S&P 500 -0.52%, 369 of 501 index tickers fell, Dec WTI +3.80% to $103.27 on Houthi attacks, and the 10-year yield sat just under 5%. The biggest single-name moves came from two headline-driven clusters: the SpaceX tower-leasing report (towers up, carriers down) and post-earnings moves in AI-capex and industrial names. I lean toward reversing headline-driven or oil-beta-driven gaps (CCI, SLB, CRWD) and toward fading the post-earnings dump in FIX and the carrier selloff in T. Conviction is low everywhere: several Monday quotes carry no verifiable timestamp, live intraday data was not reachable, and some of the expected reversal may already have happened before the window start.

  1. CCI down — confidence 57%. Direction down, reversal of +9.06% on 2026-10-23. latest_price 85.76 (USD), extended-hours pre-market quote, quote_time 2026-10-26T07:47:43-04:00, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/ (about 3 hours stale at answer time; no regular-session Monday quote found). (1) Pre-event path: 2026-10-22 close 78.83. (2) Observed reaction: Friday opened 91.02, high 91.45, low 85.00, close 85.97 on 17.32M shares vs 4.16M 3-month average (about 4.2x), closing in the bottom ~15% of its range. Event-to-close +9.06%; pre-event close to latest pre-market quote +8.79%. (3) Expected after the quote: partial give-back of the gap. Catalyst (facts, per CappNotes https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-friday-october-23-2026): a Bloomberg report that SpaceX is in talks to lease about 80,000 cell towers; AMT rose 4.08% on the same report. Inference: this is reported talks, not a signed agreement, so it is mostly sentiment rather than a confirmed change to near-term site-rental revenue, and the 6% fade from the open suggests supply into strength. Counter-evidence: very heavy volume, sector confirmation from AMT and SBAC (+3.57%), and the pre-market quote was only -0.29% so no fade had started. Invalidation: a trade above Friday's high of 91.45, or a confirmed signed lease agreement. Screens: market cap 37.569B at the Friday close (Yahoo); price above $5; 3-month average volume of 4.16M shares times roughly $80 is far above the $20M floor, but the 20-day dollar figure was not verified so it is omitted. Partial-session Monday open/high/low/volume: not available.
    Return: -1.45%; alpha: 1.09%.
  2. SLB down — confidence 52%. Direction down, reversal of +7.08% on 2026-10-23. latest_price 53.06 (USD), prior regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-23T16:00:00-04:00 (assumed official close time; about 3 days stale; no Monday quote found), source https://quant500.com/company-analysis/SLB. (1) Pre-event path: previous close 49.55. (2) Observed reaction: open 49.96, low 49.48, high 53.45, close 53.06, volume 19.04M vs 12.76M 3-month average (about 1.5x); the close sat at about 90% of the day's range. (3) Expected after the quote: some give-back if crude stays softer. Facts (CappNotes): adjusted EPS $0.64 vs $0.62 expected and a signal of a stronger 2027 on a Middle East rebound; the energy sector was +2.60% and Dec WTI +3.80% to $103.27 on fresh Houthi attacks. Inference: part of the move is oil beta rather than company-specific, and that part reverses if crude falls. The Yahoo page header (about 08:39 ET on 2026-10-26) showed Dec crude at 101.05, -2.15% (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/). Counter-evidence: the earnings beat and outlook are substantive, the close was near the high on above-average volume, and momentum rank is 68 of 494. Invalidation: a trade above Friday's high of 53.45, or crude settling back above 103.27. Screens: market cap 78.75B at the Friday close; price above $5; 3-month average volume of 12.76M shares times about $50 is well above the $20M floor (20-day dollar figure not verified, omitted). Monday partial-session data not available.
    Return: 2.87%; alpha: -3.23%.
  3. FIX up — confidence 50%. Direction up, reversal of -9.26% on 2026-10-23. latest_price 1248.80 (USD), Monday intraday quote, quote_time null (timestamp not shown by the source, so freshness cannot be verified), source https://quant500.com/company-analysis/FIX. (1) Pre-event path: the 2026-10-22 close was not directly verified (about 1,279 if derived from the reported -9.26%); 2026-10-20 close was 1,397.09 after a -4.6% day. (2) Observed reaction: Friday close 1,160.86 (-9.26%) on about 3.4x relative volume, after Q3 results released 2026-10-22 after the close. The Monday partial quote is +7.58% vs the Friday close, so a large part of the rebound may already have happened before the window start; I cannot separate the elapsed move from the remaining one. (3) Expected after the quote: further recovery. PARTIAL SESSION (as-of time unknown): open 1,175.01, high so far 1,252.08, low so far 1,173.78, cumulative volume 1,367,036; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Facts (SEC 8-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001035983/000110465926118156/fix-ex99d1.htm): Q3 revenue $3.77B vs $2.45B a year earlier, operating cash flow $1.01B, same-store backlog $17.39B vs $9.38B. The reason for Friday's drop is not verified; inference: sell-the-news and valuation or AI-capex risk-off, since CRDO -9.51%, BE -11.24% and META fell the same day. Counter-evidence: a steep downtrend from an October high of about 1,835 to 1,160.86, a 50-day average of 1,608, and the Monday bounce may already be spent. Invalidation: a trade back below Friday's close of 1,160.86. Screens: market cap 40.86B at the Friday close; price above $5; 3-month average volume 411K shares times about $1,200 is far above the $20M floor (20-day dollar figure not verified, omitted).
    Return: 3.11%; alpha: 2.75%.
  4. T up — confidence 48%. Direction up, reversal of -7.96% on 2026-10-23. latest_price 21.10 (USD), Monday intraday quote, quote_time null (timestamp not shown by the source; freshness cannot be verified), source https://quant500.com/company-analysis/T. (1) Pre-event path: the 2026-10-22 close was not directly verified; AT&T had already fallen about 5% on 2026-10-21 after a Q3 beat and a raised 2026 EPS outlook (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/21/att-sinks-5-despite-q3-beat-and-raised-outlook-verizon-and-t-mobile-drop-3/). (2) Observed reaction: Friday close 20.93 (-7.96%) on about 2.1x relative volume, attributed by CappNotes to a report that SpaceX is in talks to lease cell towers; TMUS fell 7.71% on the same report. (3) Expected after the quote: partial mean reversion. PARTIAL SESSION (as-of time unknown): open 20.70, high so far 21.21, low so far 20.62, cumulative volume 99,547,409; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Facts: Verizon was scheduled to report before the open on 2026-10-26, but I could not verify its results or the market reaction, which is a major unknown for the sector. Inference: the SpaceX tower-leasing story is speculative and does not change AT&T's reported near-term results, and AT&T trades at about 8x forward earnings with a 5.3% yield. Counter-evidence: persistent downtrend (50-day average 24.75, 52-week range 19.89 to 29.44), repeated SpaceX-related selloffs since 2026-10-09, TMUS sitting at a fresh 52-week low area of 146.31, and a Monday quote of only +0.79%. Invalidation: a trade below the 52-week low of 19.89. Screens: market cap 140.99B at the Friday close; price above $5; 3-month average volume 43.86M shares times about $21 is far above the $20M floor (20-day dollar figure not verified, omitted).
    Return: -0.64%; alpha: -1.00%.
  5. CRWD down — confidence 46%. Direction down, reversal of +8.25% on 2026-10-23. latest_price 257.57 (USD), prior regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-23T16:00:00-04:00 (assumed official close time; about 3 days stale; no Monday quote found), source https://quant500.com/company-analysis/CRWD. (1) Pre-event path: previous close 237.94. (2) Observed reaction: open 239.29, low 234.79, high 257.91, close 257.57, volume 13.34M vs 9.67M 3-month average (about 1.4x); close at about 99% of the day's range. (3) Expected after the quote: some give-back. Facts (CappNotes): CRWD +8.25% and PANW +7.22% after U.S. security agencies warned about PHP vulnerabilities. Inference: an industry-wide advisory is a sentiment catalyst and does not change CrowdStrike's own bookings or guidance; the stock is up about 120% year to date at a very high multiple, so it is vulnerable to profit-taking. Counter-evidence: the close sat at the high of the day, momentum rank 28 of 494, Nasdaq futures were higher on Monday morning per the Yahoo header, and strong stocks often keep trending after high-volume breakouts. Invalidation: a trade above Friday's high of 257.91, or a verified company-specific positive such as new guidance. Screens: market cap 263.73B at the Friday close; price above $5; 3-month average volume 9.67M shares times about $250 is far above the $20M floor (20-day dollar figure not verified, omitted). Monday partial-session data not available.
    Return: 3.54%; alpha: -3.89%.

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GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

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The source session is Friday, October 23, 2026, the last completed US regular session before the authoritative prediction time. The S&P 500 declined 0.52%, with higher oil prices and Treasury yields pressuring equities. The five selections represent two gainers and three losers from that session, screened for a closing price of at least $5, market capitalization of at least $1 billion, and 20-session average daily dollar volume of at least $20 million. The forecasts favor continued fundamental repricing in LKQ, a recovery in FIX and BE, a potential sentiment-driven reversal in CCI, and further earnings-related momentum in RHI. The 20-session liquidity figures are calculated as the arithmetic average of daily closing price multiplied by shares traded, using completed sessions through October 23. Historical prices follow the split-adjusted, non-dividend-adjusted Close convention. Monday's intraday quotes are partial-session observations and are excluded from the completed historical indicators. The authoritative scoring window began October 26 at 14:05:35.964 UTC and ends October 27 at 14:05:00 UTC. Because exact traded prices at the window's opening timestamp were not independently established, the elapsed-window return cannot be calculated reliably. All expected moves refer to the remaining forecast window after each reported quote. No future outcome is assumed. The eventual score is the mean signed return across five stocks, with the fraction of correct directions calculated independently. Both outcome metrics remain pending.

  1. LKQ down — confidence 66%. LKQ was among the largest liquid US-listed decliners on October 23, falling 22.47%. The catalyst was a substantive deterioration in company fundamentals rather than a routine technical selloff. On October 23, LKQ announced preliminary third-quarter revenue of $3.32 billion, a 5.4% decline in organic parts and services revenue, significant European underperformance, a leadership transition, and withdrawal of its full-year guidance. Adjusted EPS was preliminarily estimated at $0.47-$0.53 versus $0.84 a year earlier. The company identified German ERP implementation disruptions and European demand weakness. These developments directly weaken near-term earnings visibility. Primary source: https://investor.lkqcorp.com/news/news-details/2026/LKQ-Corporation-Announces-Preliminary-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-and-Leadership-and-Operational-Actions/default.aspx . Before the announcement, the October 22 close was $22.47 at approximately 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00, documented at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lkq/history/ . Friday's reaction included a gap down to $18.16, a session low of $17.21 and a weak $17.42 close. Volume of 23,063,072 shares was approximately 5.5 times the completed 20-session average. The latest verifiable regular-session intraday quote was $17.06 at 2026-10-26T10:47:00-04:00, labelled real-time by https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lkq/history/ , approximately 10-15 minutes old when checked. This represents a 24.08% decline from the pre-announcement close and another 2.07% below Friday's close. PARTIAL SESSION: Monday's reported open was $17.68 and cumulative volume was 1,791,586 shares in the retrieved snapshot. The displayed intraday low was not internally synchronized with the latest quote, so an accurate low_so_far is unverified; the reported high_so_far was $17.85. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. The earlier recovery to $22.47 on October 22 had already failed spectacularly before Monday opened. The continuing weakness below Friday's $17.21 low supports further downside after the current quote. Counter-evidence includes the possibility of a sharp short-covering rebound following an exceptionally large repricing, along with the announced restructuring and new CEO. However, tangible operational problems and withdrawn guidance outweigh oversold conditions. A future sustained recovery above Friday's $18.29 high, or credible evidence that European operations have stabilized, would weaken this bearish forecast. The October 29 earnings release represents a later information event, not an assumed catalyst inside this one-session window.
    Return: -1.62%; alpha: 1.26%.
  2. FIX up — confidence 62%. Comfort Systems USA was a major liquid loser on October 23, falling 9.26% despite reporting substantial earnings and revenue growth. Its October 22 results showed third-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion versus $2.45 billion a year earlier, net income of $489 million, diluted EPS of $13.91 and operating cash flow exceeding $1 billion. Backlog reached approximately $17.81 billion. The verified earnings results materially support the company's underlying business expectations. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035983/000110465926118156/fix-ex99d1.htm . The negative reaction also reflected the planned retirement of longtime CFO Bill George, concerns about margins and uncertainty surrounding longer-term AI data-center spending. Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/23/why-comfort-systems-plunged-today/ . Prior to the earnings announcement, FIX closed at $1,279.37 on October 22 at approximately 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00. Friday opened at $1,211.80, reached $1,111.11 and recovered to $1,160.86. The long lower wick shows buyers responding to the initial selloff, although the close remained substantially negative. Friday volume of 1,365,804 shares was about three times its 20-session average. The latest verified intraday quote was $1,247.05 at 2026-10-26T10:38:00-04:00, labelled real-time by https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fix/history/ , approximately 20 minutes old when checked. This was 7.42% above Friday's close, but still 2.53% below the pre-earnings close. PARTIAL SESSION as of the retrieved Monday snapshot: open $1,175.01, high_so_far $1,250.96, low_so_far $1,173.77, cumulative_volume 186,455 shares. No same-time historical volume baseline was verified, so relative intraday volume is unknown. The Monday rebound has already recovered a meaningful part of Friday's decline; this is an observed reaction, not forecast profit. The expected remaining-window move is further upward stabilization as investors reconsider the strong backlog, earnings and cash-flow evidence. However, the prior five-session decline of 19.33%, weaker sequential margins and uncertainty about future data-center capital expenditure provide serious opposing evidence. A renewed decline through Friday's $1,111.11 low or credible deterioration in backlog conversion would invalidate the recovery thesis.
    Return: 3.11%; alpha: 2.75%.
  3. CCI down — confidence 57%. Crown Castle was the largest S&P 500 percentage gainer on October 23, advancing 9.06%. The catalyst was reporting that SpaceX was seeking access to at least 80,000 US cell sites while discussing potential commercial arrangements with tower infrastructure providers, including Crown Castle. This creates a plausible long-term revenue opportunity, but the existence of discussions does not establish an executed lease, confirmed revenue, contracted margins or a timetable. Source: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-in-talks-with-crown-castle-to-secure-80000-us-cell-sites-93CH-4968345 . The business implications are potentially meaningful; the immediate valuation impact remains largely speculative. The last pre-report regular close was $78.83 on October 22 at approximately 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00. Friday opened at $91.02, touched $91.45 and retreated to close at $85.97. The substantial upper wick and close near the bottom of the session range suggest significant selling into the initial enthusiasm. Volume reached 17,313,593 shares, approximately 3.1 times the 20-session average. The latest verified intraday quote was $88.71 at 2026-10-26T10:53:00-04:00, labelled real-time by https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cci/history/ , approximately five minutes old when checked. That is 12.53% above the pre-report close and 3.19% above Friday's close. PARTIAL SESSION as of that Monday snapshot: open $86.00, high_so_far $89.05, low_so_far $86.00, cumulative_volume 1,915,795 shares. Intraday relative volume is unverified without a corresponding time-of-day baseline. Monday's appreciation is already observed and is counter-evidence to immediate reversal. Nonetheless, much of the anticipated benefit from an unconfirmed agreement appears reflected in the roughly 12.5% event-to-quote repricing. With Friday's bearish upper wick and no disclosed contractual economics, the remaining-window forecast favors some reversal from the current quote. The strongest contrary argument is that discussions could develop into a material leasing opportunity and that Monday's continued buying indicates persistent demand. Confirmation of a signed agreement with commercially meaningful terms, or a future sustained breakout above $91.45, would undermine this bearish call.
    Return: -1.45%; alpha: 1.09%.
  4. BE up — confidence 56%. Bloom Energy was among the largest liquid losers on October 23, falling 11.24% after third-quarter results revealed a serious cash-flow concern despite exceptional revenue growth. The company reported quarterly revenue of approximately $1.24 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.94 and upgraded its full-year revenue outlook to $4.4-$4.6 billion. However, negative operating cash flow of approximately $27 million and capital expenditures of approximately $153 million contributed to free cash flow near negative $181 million. These are substantive operating and financing concerns, not simply adverse sentiment. Source: https://www.investopedia.com/market-update-bloom-energy-stock-sinks-fuel-cell-data-centers-be-12190040 . The company attributed much of the cash usage to expansion-related working capital, creating an unresolved disagreement between the strong growth outlook and near-term cash conversion. The pre-earnings October 22 regular close was $217.77 at approximately 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00, documented at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/history/ . Friday opened at $203.01, traded between $189.00 and $206.00 and finished at $193.30. This followed an 8.70% decline on Thursday, making the completed two-session drop unusually severe. Friday volume reached 35,630,429 shares, approximately 2.4 times the 20-session average. The latest verified intraday quote was $201.76 at 2026-10-26T10:36:00-04:00, labelled real-time by https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/market-cap/ , approximately 20-25 minutes old when checked. This is 4.38% above Friday's close but 7.35% below the pre-earnings close. PARTIAL SESSION from the retrieved Monday price-history snapshot: open $193.00, high_so_far $203.43, low_so_far $192.15 and cumulative_volume 6,832,024 shares as of approximately 10:28 EDT. A same-time intraday volume baseline is unavailable. The recovery from Friday's low and Monday's positive price reaction provide some support for an additional rebound from the current quote, particularly as management increased guidance. Nevertheless, Friday closed near its session low and the 20-session trend is sharply negative. The negative cash-flow surprise, expensive expansion requirements and weaker investor appetite for AI infrastructure exposure are substantial counter-evidence. Further upside is forecast with relatively low confidence, rather than assuming the company has solved its cash-flow challenge. A future break below $189.00, or new evidence that cash usage is worsening beyond management's stated expectations, would invalidate the rebound thesis.
    Return: 11.20%; alpha: 10.84%.
  5. RHI up — confidence 54%. Robert Half was one of the largest liquid US-listed gainers on October 23, rising 21.74%. The catalyst was its third-quarter earnings announcement and evidence that its staffing and consulting business might be turning a corner. Quarterly revenue was approximately $1.36 billion, diluted earnings were $0.49 per share, and the Talent Solutions segment returned to approximately 2% adjusted year-over-year revenue growth. Earnings increased for the first time in several years. Management also discussed an expanding consulting opportunity involving anti-money-laundering compliance and financial-sector remediation through Protiviti. Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/23/why-robert-half-stock-jumped-more-than-20-today/ . These are potentially substantive improvements in business expectations, though the magnitude and ultimate profitability of the consulting opportunity remain uncertain. The pre-earnings October 22 close was $37.68 at approximately 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00, documented at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rhi/history/ . Friday opened at $41.95, climbed to a 20-session high of $47.14 and finished at $45.87. The close was in the upper part of the day's trading range despite an upper wick. Trading volume of 6,879,115 shares was approximately 3.5 times its 20-session average, consistent with substantial repricing and institutional participation, although exhaustion cannot be ruled out. The latest verified intraday quote was $46.21 at 2026-10-26T10:43:00-04:00, labelled real-time by https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rhi/market-cap/ , approximately 15 minutes old when checked. That is 22.64% above the pre-announcement close and 0.74% above Friday's close. PARTIAL SESSION from the Monday price-history snapshot as of approximately 10:29 EDT: open $45.05, high_so_far $46.61, low_so_far $44.21 and cumulative_volume 395,548 shares. These are earlier partial-session observations, not completed daily statistics, and relative intraday volume is unavailable without a same-time historical baseline. The recent sequence of higher completed-session closes, strong Friday closing position and Monday's continued positive price provide modest evidence for continuation from the current quote. However, the five-session advance of 37.71% and a stock price close to its new 20-session high indicate that substantial recovery expectations are already priced in. The earnings improvement is meaningful but not yet evidence of sustained rapid revenue growth. This produces a low-confidence continuation forecast, with a future breakdown below Friday's $41.00 low or a material reversal in management's consulting-demand outlook undermining the thesis.
    Return: -5.34%; alpha: -5.70%.

Full prediction and audit record

DeepSeek

DeepSeek: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

US equities were mixed in the early part of the 2026-10-26 session after a sharply split 2026-10-23 close: the Dow held up while the Nasdaq fell nearly 3% on renewed AI-capex concerns. Early Monday action showed selective rebounds in cybersecurity and oversold biotech, continued weakness in Friday's worst decliners, and a partial recovery in tower REITs. The five selections below combine large source-session moves, verifiable liquidity above the required floors, and catalysts that are either substantive enough to drive follow-through or speculative enough to be at risk of reversal.

  1. LKQ down — confidence 72%. LKQ was one of the largest US decliners on 2026-10-23, closing at $17.42 for a -22.47% source-session move, and it remained weak in the early 2026-10-26 session at $17.02, about -2.30% from Friday's close. Latest_price $17.02; quote_time null because the Yahoo history partial-session timestamp could not be refreshed; source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LKQ/history/; quote type is regular-session partial. The catalyst is substantive, not merely sentiment: preliminary Q3 results showed a net loss, the company withdrew its FY26 outlook, the CEO departed, Europe organic parts and services revenue contracted 9.8%, and management cited ERP disruption in Germany. The stock closed at $17.42 near the low end of Friday's $18.16-$18.29 opening range and on 23.4 million shares versus a 4.26 million 20-day average, which supports continuation rather than exhaustion. Counter-evidence: the stock is at a six-year low and after-hours trading on Friday was slightly positive, so a dead-cat bounce is possible. A Monday close above $17.42 would invalidate the continuation call. Market cap $4.41B and calculated 20-day average dollar volume about $93.75M were verified above the floors.
    Return: -1.62%; alpha: 1.26%.
  2. CCI up — confidence 64%. CCI was the top S&P 500 gainer on 2026-10-23, closing at $85.97 for a +9.06% source-session move, and it was up another 3.04% at $88.58 in the early 2026-10-26 session. Latest_price $88.58; quote_time 2026-10-26T14:57:13Z; source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/; quote type is live regular-session. The catalyst is speculative but potentially material: Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is in talks to lease space on Crown Castle towers as part of a plan for at least 80,000 US cell sites. The report is not a signed contract, so the move partly reflects sentiment and optionality rather than confirmed revenue. Friday's tape was strong but flawed: the stock opened at $91.02, peaked at $91.45 and closed at $85.97, giving back much of the gap on 17.3 million shares versus a 5.68 million 20-day average. That high-volume fade is the main counter-evidence. Early Monday strength above Friday's close supports continuation, but a close below $85.97 would invalidate it. Market cap about $38.71B and calculated 20-day average dollar volume about $424.9M are well above the floors.
    Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.80%.
  3. RHI up — confidence 60%. RHI was a top US gainer on 2026-10-23, closing at $45.87 for a +21.74% source-session move, and it traded at $46.23 in the early 2026-10-26 session, about +0.78% from Friday's close. Latest_price $46.23; quote_time 2026-10-26T14:24:51Z; source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RHI/; quote type is live regular-session. The catalyst is substantive: Q3 EPS of $0.49 beat the $0.47 consensus, revenue matched at about $1.36B, and management guided Q4 EPS to a $0.36-$0.46 range. The Q4 midpoint of $0.41 is below the $0.47 consensus but about 30% above the prior-year $0.32, and the company cited October-to-date evidence of a modest revenue inflection. Fact: the earnings beat and first bottom-line increase since 2022 are real. Inference: the market is re-rating a cyclical staffing recovery, but the guidance mix limits the fundamental upside. Friday gapped from $37.68 to $41.95 and closed at $45.87 near the high on 6.89 million shares versus a 2.01 million 20-day average. The main counter-evidence is extension after a 37.7% five-session return; a close below $45.87 would invalidate continuation. Market cap about $4.70B and calculated 20-day average dollar volume about $71.6M are above the floors.
    Return: -5.34%; alpha: -5.70%.
  4. CRWD up — confidence 57%. CRWD rose 8.25% on 2026-10-23 to close at $257.57, one of the strongest S&P 500 gains, and it traded at $263.70 in the early 2026-10-26 session, about +2.38% from Friday's close. Latest_price $263.70; quote_time null because the Yahoo history partial-session timestamp could not be refreshed; source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/; quote type is regular-session partial. The catalyst is largely speculative: cybersecurity stocks rallied after warnings about two critical PHP vulnerabilities and Deutsche Bank commentary that AI token usage may benefit security spending. There was no company-specific earnings or guidance change. Friday's candle was strong, closing near the $257.91 high on 13.4 million shares versus an 8.61 million 20-day average, and early Monday trade is above that close. Counter-evidence: CRWD is up about 120% year-to-date, sits well below the 20-day high of $286.99, and a sentiment-driven cybersecurity bid can fade quickly. A Monday close below $257.57 would invalidate continuation. Market cap could not be independently refreshed and is omitted rather than guessed; the name is clearly above the $1B floor. Calculated 20-day average dollar volume is about $2.20B.
    Return: 3.54%; alpha: 3.18%.
  5. CORT up — confidence 55%. CORT fell 20.13% on 2026-10-23 to close at $85.86, one of the largest US decliners, but it rebounded to $90.89 in the early 2026-10-26 session, about +5.86% from Friday's close. Latest_price $90.89; quote_time 2026-10-26T14:26:31Z; source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CORT/; quote type is live regular-session. The source-session catalyst was substantive and negative: Genmab reported positive Phase 3 data for its Rina-S antibody-drug conjugate in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, creating a stronger competitor to Corcept's Lifyorli and pressuring a large part of Corcept's ovarian-cancer valuation. The reversal case is not that the competitive threat is unreal; it is that the 20% drop already discounted a significant portion of that risk, and the stock opened Monday at $86.10, held above Friday's $84.13 low and pushed to $90.89. Friday's volume of 3.10 million shares was about 3.6 times the 852,160 20-day average, which could signal capitulation rather than pure distribution. Counter-evidence: the catalyst is a genuine fundamental negative, and the rebound could be an oversold bounce that fades. A Monday close below $85.86, or a break of the $84.13 Friday low, would invalidate the reversal-up thesis. Market cap about $9.28B and calculated 20-day average dollar volume about $97.7M are above the floors.
    Return: -5.06%; alpha: -5.41%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Extreme Movers + OHLC

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers + OHLC runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Extreme Movers + OHLC: each model's average directional return across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg directions called correctlyAvg directional return
Grok180.00%+1.42%
GPT-61062.00%+1.40%
Gemini 1.5 Pro371.67%+0.96%
Muse Spark 1.11060.00%+0.81%
Perplexity850.00%+0.26%
DeepSeek948.89%-0.33%
Grok 4.5435.00%-0.54%
Claude Opus 5.5360.00%-0.69%
Gemini 3 Pro445.00%-0.72%
Grok 4.7250.00%-0.93%
Grok 4140.00%-1.54%
Claude Sonnet 5.5220.00%-2.08%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
BE198.03000000220.21000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BE/history/
CART53.4550000059.74500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CART/history/
CCI88.1150000086.84000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/
CORT90.0900000085.53510000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CORT/history/
CRWD255.85010000264.89500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/
FIX1225.570000001263.67000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIX/history/
GMAB44.7800000044.28000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GMAB/history/
LKQ17.6400000017.35500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LKQ/history/
RHI46.1250000043.66000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RHI/history/
SLB52.2400000053.74000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLB/history/
SPY763.27000000765.99000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
T21.0500000020.91500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/
TMUS146.01000000146.98990000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMUS/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11+ohlc3, SHA-256 b2994c6d5aace47ea74eecc40cf482c4c9e8398e62142dc8a6cfd465929d39d6. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-ohlc-v1.

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