Asked Oct 26, 11:05 AM EDT (midday). Muse Spark 1.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Perplexity, GPT-6, Grok 4.7 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 26, 11:05 AM EDT to Oct 27, 11:05 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.42% | 0.23% | 1.19% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.20% | 0.23% | -0.02% |
| Perplexity | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.29% | 0.23% | 1.06% |
| GPT-6 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 2.71% | 0.23% | 2.48% |
| Grok 4.7 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.37% | 0.23% | 1.14% |
| DeepSeek | 4/5 | 80.00% | 1.78% | 0.23% | 1.55% |
Muse Spark 1.1
View full picks and reasoning
S&P 500 opened higher on Oct 26, 2026 building on Friday close, SPY around 761-763 within prior day range, as big-tech earnings week begins (Alphabet, Microsoft due). 10-year yield near 5% and oil above $116 pressure multiples. Software and cybersecurity showing relative strength while chip names slide. Today's earnings slate includes VZ beating pre-market, CDNS, NUE, CLS after close. For 1 session, post-earnings gaps and cybersecurity momentum are most likely to outperform SPY.
- VZ — confidence 72.0000%. Verizon reported Q3 before open Oct 26: adjusted EPS $1.31 vs $1.27 consensus (+$0.04), up 8.3% YoY, raised FY26 guidance, postpaid phone adds nearly doubled estimates, FCF $7.8B, new AWS AI infrastructure agreement. Revenue $34.31B missed $34.85B on equipment sales -9%, causing intraday pullback -2.68% to 43.46, but profit beat and subscriber beat underpins wireless winner thesis vs AT&T/ T-Mobile despite SpaceX fears. High 6.35% dividend yield supports defensive bid if tech wobbles into Oct 27 11:05 ET close. Reference price is intraday delayed quote from Finnhub regular session Oct 26. Risks: revenue miss may keep pressure, high rates hurt dividend stocks, equipment weakness persists.
Return: -0.33%; alpha: -0.56%. - CDNS — confidence 70.0000%. Cadence Design Systems scheduled to report Q3 after close Oct 26 at 5pm ET, consensus EPS $2.05 on $1.61B revenue, FY26 guide 8.05-8.15. EDA is direct AI chip design beneficiary, AI-powered growth narrative. Stock strong into print +4.73% intraday to 331.46 (open 316.975, high 331.65), indicating accumulation ahead of call. Options market pricing large move. Beat would gap up into window end Oct 27 15:05 UTC which captures after-hours reaction and next morning open. Reference price is intraday regular-session current price from Finnhub Oct 26. Risks: high PE ~61, Zacks warned of possible miss by 0.91%, guidance may disappoint, valuation sensitive to rates.
Return: 1.77%; alpha: 1.55%. - CRWD — confidence 68.0000%. CrowdStrike leading cybersecurity rally. Oct 24 +8.25% to $257.57 on PHP vulnerabilities taking websites offline, volume 1.6x 20-day avg. Oct 26 continuing +2.44% intraday to 263.87 (open 259.06). Evercore ISI channel survey Oct 23 pointed to firming cyber budgets into year-end, naming CRWD and PANW as top beneficiaries of AI security demand; Mizuho raised target to $275. MSFT/CRWD/PLTR noted as software resilience while chip stocks slide. Momentum +16% 5-day, YTD +125% provides trend to outperform SPY over 1 day. Reference price is intraday delayed regular-session price from Finnhub Oct 26. Risks: high beta 1.15, extended after 91% year run-up, rich valuation, profit-taking risk if SPY reverses.
Return: 1.08%; alpha: 0.86%. - NUE — confidence 65.0000%. Nucor reports Q3 after close Oct 26, consensus EPS $5.84-5.85 vs prior year implying +122% YoY growth, revenue ~$10.84B. Barclays raised target to $306 from $295 on Oct 20, 19.84% above $255.33 quote. Steel benefits from infrastructure spending and US manufacturing resilience, beta 1.87 gives higher upside than SPY in risk-on tape. Company beat Q2 by 6.84% and Q1 by 14.95%. After-close print captured fully in window to Oct 27 15:05 UTC. Reference price is intraday delayed regular-session current price 257.66 from Finnhub Oct 26 (prev close 258.11). Risks: cyclical, earnings highly sensitive to steel prices, miss would cause sharp drop, industrial demand may soften with 10-year at 5%.
Return: 4.67%; alpha: 4.45%. - CLS — confidence 62.0000%. Celestica confirmed earnings after close Oct 26, AI server and electrical equipment manufacturer, beta 1.29. Stock up +4.99% intraday to 273 (open 267, low 259.51) vs prev close 260.01, showing +20.1% over last 7 days per tracking. AI infrastructure buildout drives demand, benefit from hyperscaler capex ahead of big-tech earnings. High short-term momentum and high beta favor 1-day outperformance vs SPY if print beats. Reference price is intraday regular-session current price from Finnhub Oct 26. Risks: down -25% 1-month and -33% 6-month indicates volatility, high expectations, any miss or cautious guide could reverse +5% gain, supply chain risks.
Return: -0.11%; alpha: -0.33%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
View full picks and reasoning
Futures were modestly higher Monday morning after the S&P 500 posted two straight weekly losses (Friday close 7,623.68). Crude eased about 2% from a roughly four-year high near $100 WTI after Trump said there would be no strike on Iran that day. Chips and megacaps bounced after last week's AI-financing selloff. Key risks inside the window: the Fed decision on Wednesday (a hold is about 90% priced, with a December hike heavily priced), 10-year yields near 5%, Iran headlines, and mega-cap earnings later this week. The window ends Tuesday about 11:05 ET, before most big-tech reports, so I lean toward an oversold semiconductor bounce, defensive staples that have led in October, and a modest energy hedge. Live intraday quotes were not retrievable for most picks, so reference prices are older delayed or closing quotes where noted.
- SMH — confidence 58.0000%. Thesis: Semiconductors were hit hard in last week's AI-spending and debt-financing selloff (Thursday rout, with Information Technology down more than 5% in October). Chips steadied on Friday and rebounded in Monday premarket with Nvidia leading, so a mean-reversion bounce in the highest-beta liquid AI proxy looks most likely to beat SPY over the next session if the tape holds. Risks: AI financing worries could resume, yields near 5% pressure long-duration growth, and a hawkish Fed tone or an oil spike could reverse the bounce. Price check: I could not find a live or recent traded quote; the only recent figure was a fund NAV of 588.28 as of 2026-10-13, which is not a traded price, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: 1.88%; alpha: 1.66%. - NVDA — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: Nvidia is the leader of the AI/semiconductor rebound seen in Monday premarket and is the most oversold large-cap beneficiary if the AI-financing scare fades. Hyperscaler earnings later this week (the window closes before them) typically support the AI capex narrative and can lift sentiment into the prints. Risks: concentrated AI-debt and valuation concerns, rate sensitivity, and the possibility that the bounce fades after the open. Price check: only stale quotes were found (230.36 on 2026-09-04), which are too old to be useful, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: 0.05%; alpha: -0.17%. - XLP — confidence 50.0000%. Thesis: Consumer staples have been among the best-performing sectors in October as capital rotated out of AI-heavy growth, and they offer defensive ballast if the Fed, yields or Iran headlines unsettle the market ahead of Wednesday's decision. Risks: staples lag in a risk-on rebound, rising yields near 5% and oil-driven input costs hurt them, and Friday's session showed consumer shares lagging. Price check: reference price is the most recent regular-session close I could find (81.04 on 2026-10-05), which is stale by three weeks, so treat it only as a rough data check.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.74%. - XLE — confidence 46.0000%. Thesis: Energy is the clear 2026 leader (up roughly 49% year to date) and Brent is above $110 with US-Iran tensions unresolved, including reports of possible fresh strikes after the midterms. Energy offers a hedge against a renewed geopolitical spike and has strong relative momentum. Risks: crude was down about 2% Monday morning on easing escalation fears, so energy could underperform if the pullback continues; the sector is also extended near its 52-week high. Price check: reference price is a delayed quote of 67.89 from the morning of 2026-10-20, not a same-day quote.
Return: -1.20%; alpha: -1.43%. - MSFT — confidence 42.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft reports earnings this week after the close (sources differ between October 27 and October 28), and the company has beaten consensus EPS in each of the last eight quarters. Mega-cap tech was higher in Monday premarket, and pre-earnings positioning in a high-quality, cash-rich name could add to the relative bounce. Risks: the report falls after the window closes, so the earnings catalyst itself is not captured; any renewed AI-capex or financing scare would hit it, and the reporting date is not fully confirmed across sources. Price check: no reliable current quote was found, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: 0.79%; alpha: 0.57%.
Perplexity
View full picks and reasoning
Cautiously positive for the next session: US equity futures pointed higher as crude oil retreated from recent highs, while investors positioned ahead of a heavy earnings week and the Federal Reserve decision. I favor event-driven names with fresh positive catalysts and selected mega-cap exposure to benefit from dip-buying, while recognizing elevated volatility around Big Tech results and policy risk.
- RRC — confidence 72.0000%. Range Resources is the strongest one-day catalyst pick: EQT announced an all-stock acquisition valuing Range at more than $50 billion, and RRC was reported up about 15% premarket. The deal provides a clear re-rating catalyst, though the spread can compress quickly if investors doubt deal terms, financing, or regulatory timing. The latest price I could verify is the October 23 regular-session close; I could not verify a live intraday quote at submission time.
Return: 3.81%; alpha: 3.58%. - VZ — confidence 66.0000%. Verizon reported a third-quarter earnings beat, raised full-year 2026 earnings guidance, and was reported up about 2% premarket. Its low beta and high dividend yield also make it relatively defensive if the broader market remains choppy. The main risk is that the stock had already been pressured by concerns over SpaceX's potential wireless competition, and an earnings-day reversal could erase the premarket gain. The latest verifiable quote is the October 23 close; no reliable live intraday quote was available at submission.
Return: -0.33%; alpha: -0.56%. - TSLA — confidence 60.0000%. Tesla has a strong near-term narrative after Barclays upgraded the shares to Overweight, citing a potential SpaceX merger opportunity, Robotaxi growth, and core-business strength; premarket reports showed the stock about 2% higher. High beta can amplify gains if risk appetite improves, but it equally exposes the position to a sharp reversal, especially with valuation stretched and merger speculation uncertain. The latest price I could verify is the October 23 regular-session close.
Return: 2.13%; alpha: 1.90%. - AMZN — confidence 55.0000%. Amazon offers leveraged exposure to the week's central theme: hyperscaler earnings and AI capital-spending discipline. With the Nasdaq rebounding from two weekly losses and futures higher, a dip-buying bounce in mega-cap growth could benefit AMZN ahead of its report. Risks include a broad AI-trade selloff, disappointing cloud or capex commentary, and high sensitivity to market-wide risk sentiment. The latest price I could verify is the October 23 regular-session close.
Return: 0.78%; alpha: 0.55%. - AAPL — confidence 52.0000%. Apple is a lower-volatility mega-cap way to participate in a broad risk-on rebound without direct exposure to this week's most binary hyperscaler earnings prints. Futures strength and dip-buying after the recent AI-led selloff support a modest relative bounce. Risks include continued rotation away from large-cap technology, macro or Fed-driven volatility, and Apple's own exposure to sentiment around AI spending. The latest price I could verify is the October 23 regular-session close.
Return: 0.07%; alpha: -0.16%.
GPT-6
View full picks and reasoning
Cautiously bullish on a short-term technology and semiconductor rebound, with a preference for stocks showing identifiable catalysts and positive intraday relative strength. On October 26, US equities advanced as Anthropic's IPO filing revived interest in artificial intelligence, while declining crude oil prices offered some relief from inflation concerns. Semiconductor shares recovered after substantial selling during the preceding week. Meta's announced plan to raise up to $95 billion for AI infrastructure reinforces expectations of continued capital spending, although it also highlights financing and profitability risks. The Federal Reserve's October 28 decision and major technology earnings later in the week create substantial positioning uncertainty. The central scenario for the October 26 to October 27 measurement window is continued selective buying in semiconductor leaders and catalyst-driven growth stocks, allowing the five equal-weighted selections to outperform SPY. Principal downside risks are renewed AI valuation concerns, rising Treasury yields, geopolitical escalation, fading intraday momentum, and profit-taking after Monday's rebound. The portfolio is deliberately growth-oriented and has substantial correlated technology exposure. All five reference prices are observed October 26 intraday quotes from Google Finance, not reconstructed prices at the experiment's starting timestamp. Confidence estimates represent subjective probabilities of individual outperformance against SPY over the specified window, not expected percentage returns.
- TSLA — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Tesla has the strongest identifiable company-specific catalyst among these selections. On October 26, Barclays upgraded TSLA to Overweight and increased its price target from $370 to $450, citing improving automotive prospects, Full Self-Driving adoption, Robotaxi development, and potential benefits from a Tesla-SpaceX combination. Mizuho also maintained a bullish rating with a $460 target. Tesla gained approximately 5.91% intraday, demonstrating unusually strong relative momentum compared with SPY. The upgrade and ongoing merger speculation may continue attracting institutional and momentum-oriented buying into the next session. A possible combination remains speculative and is not treated as an announced transaction. Risks: The substantial initial rally creates profit-taking exposure; a merger is not guaranteed, Tesla's valuation remains demanding, and disappointing autonomous-driving developments or broader risk aversion could reverse the move. The reference price is an October 26 intraday traded quote, not the October 23 close or the experiment's opening-window price.
Return: 2.13%; alpha: 1.90%. - NVDA — confidence 66.0000%. Thesis: Nvidia offers direct exposure to a potential continuation of the semiconductor recovery following the sector's sharp preceding-week decline. Anthropic's IPO filing has renewed investor attention on AI infrastructure demand, while Meta's newly announced financing plans reinforce the scale of prospective investment in computing capacity. NVDA advanced approximately 2.12% in the retrieved intraday quote, showing positive momentum during the sector rebound. Barclays maintained a Buy recommendation on October 26, with a $275 price target. Nvidia's position in AI accelerators makes it a plausible beneficiary if investors rotate back toward established semiconductor suppliers rather than financially stressed infrastructure operators. Risks: Expensive infrastructure investment may ultimately produce disappointing returns; customers could delay purchases; export restrictions, competition, rising yields, and renewed semiconductor selling could overwhelm the rebound. The reference price is an October 26 intraday quote, rather than a prior close, and its timestamp may precede quotes retrieved for other selections.
Return: 0.05%; alpha: -0.17%. - SOXL — confidence 63.0000%. Thesis: Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF provides amplified exposure to a continuation of the semiconductor sector rebound. Semiconductor ETFs experienced exceptionally sharp losses during the preceding week amid AI infrastructure financing and supply-chain concerns. On October 26, the semiconductor sector recovered, with SMH gaining approximately 3.05% and SOXL advancing approximately 6.51% in retrieved intraday quotes. Anthropic's public filing, continued hyperscaler spending commitments, and lower oil prices provide potential support for another risk-on trading session. If semiconductor shares continue outperforming the wider market, SOXL's leveraged exposure could generate substantial relative gains against SPY. Risks: SOXL targets approximately three times the DAILY performance of its underlying semiconductor index, not three times the entire experiment-window return. Daily rebalancing, path dependence, financing costs, and volatility can produce materially different results, particularly because the window crosses two trading sessions. The substantial October 26 recovery could also be followed by immediate profit-taking. This is the portfolio's highest-volatility selection. The reference price is a delayed October 26 intraday quote.
Return: 7.35%; alpha: 7.13%. - AVGO — confidence 62.0000%. Thesis: Broadcom combines AI-related semiconductor exposure with a diversified infrastructure software business. Demand for customized AI accelerators, data-center networking equipment, and supporting semiconductor infrastructure could remain resilient as major technology companies continue expanding computing capacity. Meta's October 26 financing announcement suggests substantial prospective infrastructure expenditure, although spending plans are not equivalent to confirmed Broadcom orders. Broadcom gained approximately 2.87% in its retrieved October 26 intraday quote, outperforming the broader market and participating in the semiconductor recovery. That relative strength supports a modest continuation hypothesis over the next trading session. Risks: Hyperscaler capital expenditures could be reduced, AI financing concerns could pressure valuations, competitors could capture incremental custom-chip demand, and Broadcom's substantial exposure to the same macro drivers as NVDA and SOXL increases portfolio concentration. The reference price is an October 26 intraday traded quote, not a previous regular-session close.
Return: 2.93%; alpha: 2.70%. - CRWD — confidence 59.0000%. Thesis: CrowdStrike provides exposure to a different technology subsector and may benefit from continued recovery in cybersecurity shares after their recent broad selloff. CRWD rose 8.25% on October 23, following a 5.26% gain on October 21, and its retrieved October 26 quote showed another approximately 2.30% advance. This combination suggests recovering momentum and potential follow-through as investors reassess cybersecurity valuations. Growing concern about AI-enabled cyberattacks supports the longer-term demand argument for sophisticated endpoint security and threat intelligence. Risks: The preceding rally may already reflect substantial short-covering and bargain-hunting; cybersecurity companies face concerns that increasingly capable AI security tools could disrupt existing products; and CrowdStrike's demanding valuation makes the stock sensitive to interest rates and risk sentiment. A renewed technology selloff could rapidly erase the rebound. The reference price is an October 26 intraday traded quote rather than the previous session's closing price.
Return: 1.08%; alpha: 0.86%.
Grok 4.7
View full picks and reasoning
US equities are recovering on Monday after Friday's tech and broad-market weakness driven by AI spending concerns and Middle East oil spikes. SPY is trading higher near 767 as of mid-morning, with high-beta tech and names tied to SpaceX infrastructure news leading gains. Energy has cooled somewhat with oil easing, while the session favors momentum in semiconductors, cybersecurity, and tower REITs ahead of a busy earnings week and Fed meeting.
- TSLA — confidence 75.0000%. Tesla is showing strong relative strength, up nearly 6% mid-morning to around 394, far ahead of SPY's roughly 1% gain. The stock benefits from ongoing SpaceX synergy narratives around satellite and potential wireless infrastructure, plus high-beta momentum in a recovering risk-on session. Thesis centers on continued short-covering and AI/autonomy sentiment supporting outperformance over the next session. Risks include high valuation sensitivity to any broader tech pullback, profit-taking after the sharp intraday move, or macro headlines around rates and oil.
Return: 2.13%; alpha: 1.90%. - NVDA — confidence 72.0000%. NVIDIA is rebounding sharply, up over 3% to about 217.5, outperforming SPY as AI-related selling from the prior week eases. The name remains the core driver of the AI trade and is positioned for continued leadership if the broader recovery holds through the session. Thesis is that dip-buying in semiconductors and positive positioning ahead of major tech earnings will sustain relative gains. Risks include renewed concerns over AI capex returns, elevated valuation, or a fade in risk appetite if oil or geopolitical headlines resurface.
Return: 0.05%; alpha: -0.17%. - PANW — confidence 68.0000%. Palo Alto Networks is advancing about 2.8% to roughly 391, continuing Friday's strength in cybersecurity amid ongoing AI and enterprise security demand. The stock offers defensive growth characteristics within tech that can outperform in a mixed but recovering tape. Thesis focuses on sustained buying interest in software security names as the market rotates back into high-quality tech. Risks include sector-wide profit-taking if broader tech stalls, competitive pressures, or any disappointment on upcoming earnings commentary.
Return: 1.88%; alpha: 1.66%. - CCI — confidence 70.0000%. Crown Castle continues to benefit from SpaceX reports seeking tens of thousands of US cell sites, trading up about 2.7% to 88.3 after Friday's 9% surge. The catalyst remains fresh and can drive further relative strength versus SPY as investors price in potential new leasing demand. Thesis is that the infrastructure story provides idiosyncratic upside independent of pure AI or energy moves. Risks include fading of the headline if no concrete deals materialize, REIT rate sensitivity, or a broader risk-off shift that hits real estate.
Return: -1.84%; alpha: -2.06%. - AMD — confidence 65.0000%. AMD is modestly higher, up around 1.4% to about 524, participating in the semiconductor bounce alongside NVDA but with less extreme momentum. The stock offers leveraged exposure to AI accelerator demand and can outperform if the tech recovery broadens. Thesis centers on catch-up buying in the chip complex after recent weakness. Risks include lagging NVDA leadership, high valuation, or a reversal if AI sentiment cools again later in the session.
Return: 4.61%; alpha: 4.39%.
DeepSeek
View full picks and reasoning
US equities are poised for a higher open on Monday, supported by a pullback in crude oil prices and anticipation of a busy week of mega-cap earnings and the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While broad-market gains may be moderate, stock-specific catalysts such as M&A announcements and analyst upgrades are likely to drive significant one-day outperformance. The AI trade remains a focus following Anthropic's IPO filing, but concerns about AI spending persist, creating dispersion among individual names.
- SGRY — confidence 85.0000%. Surgery Partners surged over 46% after HealthSpan Partners agreed to acquire the company for $23.50 per share in cash, representing a more than 49% premium to Friday's close. Despite the sharp move, the stock still trades below the offer price, leaving a merger-arbitrage gap that could narrow further during the session. Risks include deal-completion uncertainty and potential regulatory hurdles, but the cash nature of the offer provides a relatively clear valuation anchor.
Return: 0.82%; alpha: 0.60%. - RRC — confidence 80.0000%. Range Resources jumped roughly 16% after EQT Corporation agreed to acquire the company in an all-stock deal valued at over $50 billion, implying approximately $54.91 per share. The stock is trading below the implied deal value, and continued merger-arbitrage interest could push it closer to the offer price during the session. Risks include fluctuations in EQT's share price (which determines the exchange ratio) and natural-gas market volatility.
Return: 3.81%; alpha: 3.58%. - TSLA — confidence 75.0000%. Tesla is leading the megacap advance, up more than 5%, after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight with a $450 price target, citing potential SpaceX merger synergies. The upgrade has triggered strong momentum and short-covering interest. Risks include overextension after the sharp rally and the possibility of profit-taking into the close, as well as lingering concerns about the company's recent quarterly results.
Return: 2.13%; alpha: 1.90%. - NVDA — confidence 70.0000%. Nvidia is advancing about 2% as semiconductor stocks broadly recover following a turbulent stretch. Anthropic's IPO filing has renewed focus on AI infrastructure demand, benefiting the leading AI-chip supplier. Broadcom and AMD are also higher, supporting sector sentiment. Risks include persistent concerns about debt-funded AI data-center spending and the stock's sensitivity to interest-rate expectations ahead of the Fed decision.
Return: 0.05%; alpha: -0.17%. - MU — confidence 65.0000%. Micron Technology is up nearly 3%, leading the storage-chip sector higher after BofA highlighted the company's technology competitiveness and long-term supply contracts. Sector peers SanDisk and SK Hynix are also gaining, suggesting broad-based momentum. Risks include the memory sector's history of sharp cyclical swings and the potential for gains to fade if broader AI-spending worries resurface during the session.
Return: 2.06%; alpha: 1.84%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 2 | 50.00% | +0.59% |
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 9 | 48.89% | +0.01% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.05% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | 41.43% | -0.16% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 5 | 32.00% | -0.22% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 4 | 40.00% | -0.25% |
| GPT-6 | 15 | 29.33% | -0.25% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 24 | 41.67% | -0.31% |
| Grok 4.5 | 21 | 42.86% | -0.32% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| DeepSeek | 24 | 45.83% | -0.55% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 1 | 60.00% | -0.78% |
| Perplexity | 11 | 36.36% | -0.79% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 0.00% | -2.53% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 346.89500000 | 347.12500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMD | 528.64500000 | 553.04000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| AMZN | 250.23500000 | 252.17500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| AVGO | 330.90000000 | 340.58000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/ | |
| CCI | 88.40000000 | 86.77500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/ | |
| CDNS | 330.19000000 | 336.04000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CDNS/history/ | |
| CLS | 272.20000000 | 271.91000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLS/history/ | |
| CRWD | 262.91000000 | 265.76000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/ | |
| MSFT | 529.31500000 | 533.51990000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 907.49500000 | 926.21500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NUE | 257.63500000 | 269.67500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUE/history/ | |
| NVDA | 217.57000000 | 217.68000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| PANW | 389.23500000 | 396.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/history/ | |
| RRC | 52.51000000 | 54.51000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RRC/history/ | |
| SGRY | 23.03500000 | 23.22500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SGRY/history/ | |
| SMH | 542.59000000 | 552.81000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMH/history/ | |
| SOXL | 90.72000000 | 97.38940000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/ | |
| SPY | 767.37000000 | 769.10000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSLA | 394.17000000 | 402.55840000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| VZ | 43.56500000 | 43.42000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VZ/history/ | |
| XLE | 69.33000000 | 68.49500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLP | 87.97990000 | 87.53000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 fd50e75d144a42e412f6ea72979fa2768b7cc384447270b7abe9949f58d8037c. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.