Sep 30, 2026 - 7 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 2 models beat SPY over the window

Asked Sep 30, 10:28 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5, DeepSeek and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 30, 10:28 AM EDT to Oct 1, 10:28 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha vs SPY
Muse Spark 1.1	4/5	80.00%	0.71%	-0.96%	1.67%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	1/5	20.00%	-2.22%	-0.96%	-1.26%
Perplexity	2/5	40.00%	-5.08%	-0.96%	-4.12%
Grok 4.5	3/5	60.00%	4.14%	-0.96%	5.10%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	1/5	20.00%	-7.02%	-0.96%	-6.06%
DeepSeek	1/4	25.00%	-6.86%	-0.96%	-5.90%
GPT-6	1/5	20.00%	-1.80%	-0.96%	-0.84%

Muse Spark 1.1

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Window captures two high-impact confirmed earnings: Micron MU after close Sept 30 and 【entity-Nike¦canonical_name=Nike】 NKE after close Oct 1, plus fresh reports from Conagra CAG and Jefferies JEF and upcoming Constellation STZ. Memory and consumer staples are at inflection, driving large intraday repricing from now to Oct 1 close. Anticipation of NKE/STZ can move stocks within the window even before prints.

1. MU — confidence 72%. MU reports fiscal Q4 2026 after close Sept 30 confirmed. Consensus ~$31.56 EPS and $51.2B revenue on HBM/AI demand. Market is pricing blowout but guidance on HBM pricing and 2027 capex is the swing factor. With price ~$1073 and 217% 6M return, expectations elevated. Base case beat + raise drives up move in next session as shorts cover and AI memory momentum continues. Risk: priced for perfection, any margin or supply comment triggers selloff.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: -2.87%.
2. NKE — confidence 68%. NKE confirmed to report Q1 FY27 after close Oct 1. Consensus $0.44 EPS and $11.33B revenue, down YoY. Stock at 12-year low $35.8, down 51% 1Y, market cap ~53B. Piper Sandler cut to $38 Neutral, Evercore to $34 ahead of print. Turnaround delayed, China down 17%. Pre-earnings drift typically negative when estimates cut into print. Expect de-risking down into earnings within window. Risk: bearishness extreme, any wholesale/Running improvement leaked could squeeze up.
   Return: -0.01%; alpha: 0.97%.
3. CAG — confidence 65%. CAG reported Q1 FY27 Sept 30 pre-open: adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.28 consensus, sales $2.6B in line, but maintained FY27 guidance $1.40-1.50 and flagged margin pressure. Stock traded $13.77 down intraday despite beat, showing sell-the-news. Packaged food volume weak. Post-earnings continuation risk down as investors focus on reaffirmed not raised outlook and CEO transition. Meets price >=5, market cap ~6.59B, avg volume ~13.5M shares.
   Return: -4.59%; alpha: 5.55%.
4. STZ — confidence 62%. STZ confirmed to report Q2 FY27 before open Oct 1. Consensus $3.61 EPS vs $3.63 LY, revenue ~$2.54B. Stock at 52-week low $112.92, market cap ~19.3B, near 111.92 low. Beer slowdown and wine/spirits weakness expected. Bernstein cut target before print. Similar to NKE, pre-earnings positioning ahead of consumer staples print likely drives down move within window as investors de-risk. Risk: low expectations allow beat up.
   Return: -0.47%; alpha: 1.43%.
5. JEF — confidence 60%. JEF reported Q3 2026 Sept 28: EPS $1.08 vs $1.00 consensus, revenue $2.22B up 8.5%, equities record $626M +29% YoY, yet stock slid 4% after-hours on composition concerns. Previous close $43.55-44.69, market cap ~9.28B, avg vol ~1M shares. Post-earnings drift for brokers after mixed quality beat often continues down next sessions. Window captures continuation selling as analysts cut targets (BMO to $50). Risk: financials strength could support bounce.
   Return: -2.31%; alpha: 3.27%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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Markets are trading cautiously ahead of key economic data and major earnings, specifically the Dallas Fed PCE and quarterly results from tech heavyweight Micron. Broader market sentiment hinges on assessing whether the artificial intelligence trade retains momentum or faces a valuation reality check. Meanwhile, consumer staples and cyclicals reflect a bifurcated environment where margin execution separates winners from losers in a rate-sensitive context.

1. MU — confidence 80%. Micron's earnings are highly anticipated given their exposure to the AI hardware trade [1.3.1]. The report serves as a key indicator for broader tech sentiment. Given recent valuation run-ups in semiconductor stocks, there is a risk of a "sell the news" reaction or a sharp pullback if guidance on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) margins falls short of lofty expectations, offsetting any modest revenue beat.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: 4.79%.
2. JBL — confidence 75%. Jabil is reporting earnings before the open on September 30. The company serves multiple end markets including tech and automotive. With potential slowdowns in certain hardware segments, their forward guidance will be scrutinized. We expect a modest upside surprise as manufacturing supply chains have stabilized, boosting margins.
   Return: -1.85%; alpha: -0.89%.
3. FDS — confidence 70%. FactSet reports before the open on Sept 30. Steady demand for financial data and analytics typically provides a floor, but any weakness in user growth or margin compression from AI investment costs could trigger a negative reaction given its premium valuation.
   Return: 6.01%; alpha: -5.05%.
4. CAG — confidence 85%. Conagra Brands is reporting earnings before the bell. Consumer packaged goods have faced volume pressures from inflation-weary consumers pushing back on price hikes. However, recent stabilization in input costs may have allowed Conagra to defend its margins, setting up a positive reaction to the report.
   Return: -4.59%; alpha: -3.63%.
5. CCL — confidence 65%. Carnival recently reported earnings, and the stock made a strong upward move (+13.41%). The cruise industry continues to benefit from robust forward bookings and pricing power. The positive momentum is likely to carry through the next session as analysts upgrade their price targets and institutional buyers add to positions.
   Return: -2.50%; alpha: -1.54%.

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Perplexity

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US equities are digesting a heavy earnings day on September 30 with Micron, Conagra, Jabil and FactSet all reporting. The market is focused on AI infrastructure demand (Micron, Jabil) and consumer resilience (Conagra). Tomorrow's Nike and Accenture prints will test whether AI spending and consumer discretionary demand can sustain current valuations. Anticipation of these catalysts is driving elevated intraday volatility even before the actual prints.

1. MU — confidence 75%. Micron Technology reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after market close on September 30, 2026. Consensus expects revenue of approximately $51 billion and EPS around $31.50, both up over 350% and 900% year-over-year respectively, driven by AI-fueled HBM and DRAM demand. The company has guided to $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion in revenue and $31 plus or minus $1 in EPS. HBM4 capacity is sold out through 2027, supporting pricing power. A beat-and-raise scenario could extend the stock's 275% year-to-date rally, while any guidance disappointment despite a beat could trigger profit-taking. The earnings print occurs after the window closes, but anticipation of the report is already moving the stock intraday on September 30.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: -2.87%.
2. NKE — confidence 65%. Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after market close on October 1, 2026. Consensus expects revenue of approximately $11.3 billion (down 3% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.44 (down from $0.49 prior year). The stock is trading near 13-year lows around $36, down over 40% year-to-date, reflecting concerns about sluggish consumer demand, China weakness, and competitive pressure from On and Adidas. Several analysts have cut price targets ahead of the print, with Bank of America downgrading to Underperform with a $30 target. However, Jefferies maintains a Buy rating with a $75 target, expecting potential stabilization in North America and wholesale channels. The low bar and depressed valuation could set up a relief rally on in-line or slightly better results, though guidance will be critical. Anticipation of tomorrow's print is affecting the stock today.
   Return: -0.01%; alpha: 0.95%.
3. ACN — confidence 60%. Accenture reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 earnings before market open on October 1, 2026. Consensus expects revenue of approximately $18.05 billion and EPS of $3.19. The stock has rallied nearly 50% off June lows into the print, creating a high bar for management. Analyst sentiment is divided: JPMorgan and BMO see modest upside with Overweight/Market Perform ratings and $200 targets, while Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight with a $194 target, flagging Middle East disruption risk and questioning whether the October 14 investor day will be a positive catalyst. Q3 bookings declined 2% to $19.32 billion, raising concerns about organic growth conversion. A strong FY27 guide driven by AI services demand could extend gains, but any cautious commentary on enterprise spending or AI monetization timelines could trigger a pullback. Premarket trading on September 30 shows the stock up about 0.8% in anticipation.
   Return: 24.31%; alpha: -23.35%.
4. CAG — confidence 55%. Conagra Brands reported fiscal Q1 2027 earnings before market open on September 30, 2026, beating consensus EPS of $0.28 by $0.13 to report $0.41, while revenue of $2.60 billion was in line with the $2.59 billion estimate. Adjusted EBITDA of $451.4 million beat estimates by 30.5%. However, organic revenue fell 1.1% and sales volumes declined 2.1% year-over-year, consistent with the prior quarter's trend. The stock initially traded up 2.6% to $14.47 immediately following the results but was later down about $0.36 during the day. The mixed picture of EPS beats on cost management versus continued volume declines creates uncertainty about sustainability. With the earnings already released earlier in the session on September 30, the window from now through tomorrow's close may see continued digestion of the results, with risk of mean reversion after the initial pop.
   Return: -4.59%; alpha: 5.55%.
5. JBL — confidence 58%. Jabil reported fiscal Q4 2026 earnings before market open on September 30, 2026, announcing Q4 revenue of $10.6 billion and full-year FY26 revenue of $36.0 billion (up 21%). Adjusted EPS was $4.40 for Q4. More importantly, the company provided FY27 guidance of $44.5 billion in revenue, core EPS of $17.55, and margin of 6.1%, implying significant growth. The stock was trading around $307 during the session on September 30, down from pre-earnings levels near $319, suggesting some profit-taking despite the strong guide. The guidance implies confidence in AI infrastructure and electronics manufacturing services demand continuation. With the earnings already released and the stock pulling back intraday, there may be opportunity for recovery into tomorrow's close as investors digest the strong FY27 outlook.
   Return: -1.85%; alpha: -0.89%.

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Grok 4.5

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Cooler PCE inflation data and strong ADP jobs support a constructive short-term equity backdrop into the session, with elevated single-stock volatility concentrated around large-cap tech and industrial earnings plus a major defense contract award. Memory and AI-linked names remain the highest-beta catalysts while consumer discretionary faces continued pressure from prior guidance misses.

1. MU — confidence 72%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 results after the close on 30 Sep with consensus near $31.7 EPS and $51B revenue; the stock has exhibited double-digit post-earnings moves historically amid AI memory demand. Anticipation and after-hours reaction will drive the majority of the 1-day window move. Risks include guidance disappointment on HBM pricing or inventory, which could reverse gains quickly given elevated valuations.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: -2.87%.
2. BA — confidence 68%. Boeing received a >$20B U.S. Navy F/A-XX sixth-generation fighter development contract announced late 29 Sep, marking its second consecutive major next-gen win after the F-47. The award is material positive news already partially priced in after-hours and pre-market; continuation into the session is expected on analyst upgrades and defense sentiment. Risks include residual 737 MAX software issues or broader aerospace execution concerns that could cap upside.
   Return: -1.65%; alpha: -0.69%.
3. ACN — confidence 65%. Accenture reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results before the open on 1 Oct; consulting and digital transformation demand remains a key focus amid AI spending. Pre-event positioning and the open reaction fall fully inside the window. Risks center on any softness in discretionary IT budgets or lower guidance that could trigger a sell-off given the stock’s recent underperformance.
   Return: 24.31%; alpha: 25.27%.
4. NKE — confidence 62%. Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close on 1 Oct; the stock has already declined sharply on prior weak guidance and China demand concerns, leaving elevated short interest and options activity into the print. Anticipation and any pre-event volatility will affect the window even though the full reaction occurs after its end. Risks include a further guidance cut that accelerates downside already underway.
   Return: -0.01%; alpha: 0.97%.
5. JBL — confidence 58%. Jabil reported fiscal Q4 results before the open on 30 Sep; early indications show mixed price action around the print with elevated volume. Continued digestion of the numbers and any guidance commentary will drive residual moves through the remainder of the session and into the next day. Risks include follow-through selling if supply-chain or margin details disappoint relative to the beat.
   Return: -1.85%; alpha: 2.81%.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5

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Cautious, event-driven tape. Yields are elevated (30-year at its highest since 2002 per one market brief), oil is firm, and Friday's payrolls are still ahead. Micron's print after the close on Sep 30 is the main event and sets the read-through for AI and memory stocks. Accenture, McCormick and Acuity report before the open on Oct 1, all inside the window. Nike reports after the window ends, so only anticipation counts for it. Direction calls are low-conviction because each stock is already priced for a wide range of outcomes. Where I could not verify a figure, the rationale says so.

1. MU — confidence 55%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 after the close on Sep 30 (call at 4:30 p.m. ET), so the full reaction falls inside the window. Consensus is roughly $51.2-51.5B revenue and about $31.5-31.8 EPS, against company guidance of $50B +/- $1B revenue, about 86% gross margin and $31 +/- $1 EPS. Micron has beaten EPS estimates for many straight quarters, HBM is described as booked through 2027, and free cash flow and buyback commentary could add upside. The stock trades near 6.7x next-year earnings. Guidance for the next quarter matters more than the Q4 beat. Risks: the stock has rallied about 17% off its Sep 16 low, expectations are very high, and it has sold off after prior record prints. Options implied about +/-11% last quarter, and recent reactions have ranged from -3.8% to +15.7%. This is a scheduled event (occurred: no; officially scheduled: yes). Anticipation is already lifting memory names, so the pre-report drift is partly priced. I lean up because next-quarter guidance likely exceeds the Street. Reference price is an intraday snapshot from Sep 30 at $1,072.00. Market cap of about $1.19T comes from Investing.com. I did not find a verified 20-day average dollar volume; the figure given is a rough unverified estimate, and MU is far above the $20M floor at any plausible volume.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: -2.87%.
2. ACN — confidence 54%. Accenture reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 before the open on Oct 1 (about 6:39 a.m. ET), inside the window. Consensus is about $3.18-3.19 EPS on roughly $18.0B revenue. Options imply about an 8% move. The key items are the first fiscal 2027 outlook, bookings, and whether federal business returns to growth. Last quarter brought an earnings miss, lower revenue guidance, weaker bookings and large deals pushed into fiscal 2027. About $9B of acquisitions also make organic growth look thin (roughly 1.5-2.5% by one estimate). The stock closed at $177.12 on Sep 29 after rebounding about 38% from its June low, so a soft or acquisition-driven fiscal 2027 guide could reverse part of that. I lean down modestly on that basis. Upside risk: expectations are depressed, the stock is down about 39% from its January high, and margin and AI-services commentary could squeeze shorts. Scheduled and not yet observed. Reference price is the Sep 29 regular-session close; I found no Sep 30 quote. Market cap is about 611.94M shares times $177.12, which is my own calculation. The 20-day average dollar volume is an unverified estimate from older short-interest and days-to-cover data.
   Return: 24.31%; alpha: -23.35%.
3. MKC — confidence 52%. McCormick reports fiscal Q3 before the open on Oct 1 (call at 8:00 a.m. ET), inside the window. Consensus is about $0.75-0.76 EPS, down from $0.85, on about $1.98B revenue. Estimates have drifted down roughly 9.5% over three months, and TD Cowen downgraded to Hold on Sep 14. The stock is down about 26% over 52 weeks and trades around $48-49, so a lot of caution is priced in. McCormick beat EPS in three of the last four quarters, and the Unilever food-deal review adds noise but is unlikely to resolve within the window. I lean modestly up on a relief reaction to a beatable bar. Risks: Zacks shows a negative earnings-surprise indicator, margin and tariff pressure could drive a guidance cut, and the tape is sensitive to yields. Scheduled and not yet observed. Reference price of $48.15 comes from a Sep 29-30 preview quote, and I could not confirm its exact timestamp. Market cap of $12.88B comes from a Sep 26 data provider report. The 20-day average dollar volume is an unverified estimate.
   Return: -3.22%; alpha: -2.26%.
4. AYI — confidence 52%. Acuity reports fiscal Q4 before the open on Oct 1, inside the window (the exact release time is not confirmed; the June report came at 6:00 a.m. ET). Consensus is about $5.66 EPS on $1.25B revenue, versus $5.20 a year ago, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. The stock gapped down on Sep 30 after William Blair moved to market perform and Baird cut its target to $360, which lowers the bar into the print. That gap is already in the price and is not part of my forecast. I lean up on a beat plus fiscal 2027 commentary on lighting demand, margins and the intelligent spaces segment. Risks: demand and backlog commentary could disappoint, downgrades signal reduced conviction, and lighting sales were guided flat to down. Scheduled and not yet observed. The $319.42 reference price comes from a pre-earnings preview dated about Sep 29 and does not reflect the Sep 30 gap down; a market cap of $9.23B implies roughly $310, so the true current price is likely lower. Market cap comes from a Sep 30 article. The 20-day average dollar volume is an unverified estimate from an older average volume of roughly 500,000 shares.
   Return: -3.74%; alpha: -2.78%.
5. NKE — confidence 45%. Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close on Oct 1 (call at 5 p.m. ET). That is after this window ends at 10:28 a.m. ET on Oct 1, so this pick rests on anticipation only. The stock is near a roughly 12-year low, down about 42% year to date, and short interest is reported at a record of about 87M shares. Bank of America downgraded it to Sell on a $30 target, and consensus is about $0.44 EPS on roughly $11.3B revenue, down year over year. The options market implies about an 8% post-earnings move, but that reaction happens after the window closes. I lean slightly up because heavy short positioning and depressed expectations can produce a modest run-up into a heavily watched print. Risks: continued negative analyst revisions, reports of retailers cutting spring 2027 orders, and a weak macro tape could push it lower before the report. The catalyst is scheduled and not yet observed, and its outcome is uncertain. The $35.85 reference price is an undated Yahoo Finance snapshot, so its date is unconfirmed. Market cap is my rough estimate of about $53B from an assumed share count of roughly 1.48B, not a verified figure. The 20-day average dollar volume is an unverified estimate.
   Return: -0.01%; alpha: 0.95%.

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DeepSeek

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US equities enter the October 1 session with elevated event risk concentrated in a handful of mega-cap and mid-cap names. Micron's fiscal Q4 print after the September 30 close, three pre-open reports on October 1 (Accenture, Acuity Brands, McCormick), and Corteva's Vylor spin-off distribution create a dense catalyst cluster inside a single trading session. The broad tape is range-bound: rising long-end Treasury yields and mixed inflation data are capping index upside, while AI-related semiconductor demand remains a supportive undercurrent. This environment favours sharp single-name moves on company-specific news over broad directional bets. Each selection below is driven by a dated, verifiable event occurring within the window, with implied options moves used as a volatility reference and fundamental positioning used for direction.

1. MU — confidence 55%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 2026 results after the September 30 close. Consensus expects EPS of approximately $31.73 on revenue near $51.4 billion, representing roughly 350% year-over-year revenue growth driven by HBM and AI data-center memory demand. The stock has rallied roughly 279% year-to-date and trades near $1,065, leaving an extremely high bar for the print and forward guidance. Options markets price a roughly 7-8% post-earnings move. The risk is a classic sell-the-news reaction: even a modest beat may not be enough to sustain a stock that has already priced in a memory super-cycle. Conversely, any hint of HBM pricing pressure or capex digestion could trigger a sharp downside gap. I forecast a decline as the market digests already-elevated expectations. Risks to the thesis include stronger-than-expected HBM guidance or a larger-than-anticipated capital-return announcement, which could squeeze the stock higher.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: 4.79%.
2. ACN — confidence 60%. Accenture reports fiscal Q4 2026 and full-year results before the October 1 open. Consensus expects revenue of approximately $18.0 billion and EPS of $3.18-$3.19. The stock has rallied roughly 50% off its June lows, and the options market is pricing an approximately 8.4% post-earnings move. The critical risk is FY27 guidance: management has previously narrowed FY26 revenue growth to 3-4% in local currency, and any conservative FY27 outlook could disappoint a market that has bid the shares up sharply on AI-consulting optimism. High expectations into a pre-open print create asymmetric downside if guidance fails to clear the elevated bar. I forecast a decline as guidance risk outweighs the recent momentum. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected AI bookings or a surprise upward revision to the FY27 outlook.
   Return: 24.31%; alpha: -23.35%.
3. AYI — confidence 55%. Acuity Brands reports fiscal Q4 2026 results before the October 1 open. Consensus expects EPS of approximately $5.66-$5.72 on revenue of roughly $1.25-$1.27 billion, representing mid-single-digit top-line growth and roughly 9% EPS growth. The options market prices an approximately 10.5% post-earnings move, the widest implied swing among the October 1 reporters. The stock trades near $309 and has faced recent analyst downgrades, creating a low bar for a positive surprise if data-center and intelligent-spaces lighting demand prove stronger than feared. I forecast an upward move on the potential for a modest beat and constructive commentary on AI-driven infrastructure demand. Risks include continued weakness in traditional commercial construction markets or margin compression from input costs, which could send shares sharply lower.
   Return: -3.74%; alpha: -2.78%.
4. CTVA — confidence 50%. Corteva completes the spin-off of its Vylor subsidiary on October 1, 2026. Shareholders of record as of September 24 will receive one Vylor share for every Corteva share held, with the distribution expected before 9:30 a.m. ET on October 1. Separately, MSCI has announced that Corteva will be removed from its large-cap classification and moved to mid-cap effective October 2, 2026, which could trigger mechanical selling by large-cap index trackers as they rebalance. The combination of a major corporate-action event and an index-reclassification overhang creates a negative setup for the shares during the window. I forecast a decline as the market prices in index-related supply and uncertainty around the standalone Vylor valuation. Upside risks include a positive market reception to Vylor's standalone growth prospects or a stronger-than-anticipated sum-of-the-parts valuation.
   Excluded from scoring: Split to Vylor.
5. MKC — confidence 55%. McCormick reports fiscal Q3 2026 results before the October 1 open. Consensus expects EPS of approximately $0.76 on revenue of roughly $1.98 billion, representing roughly 15% revenue growth (helped by the McCormick de Mexico acquisition) but an approximately 5-9% year-over-year EPS decline due to margin pressure. The options market prices an approximately 9.1% post-earnings move. The stock has been weak, trading near $48, and expectations appear modest. If management demonstrates that margin headwinds are stabilising and the integration of recent acquisitions is on track, the shares could re-rate higher. I forecast an upward move on a potential relief rally. Risks include continued gross-margin compression, weaker-than-expected organic sales, or disappointing guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year, which could drive shares lower.
   Return: -3.22%; alpha: -2.26%.

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GPT-6

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The latest reports show equities advancing following softer inflation data. Company-specific earnings and contract announcements provide stronger directional catalysts than the broad market alone. Forecasts below cover additional movement from the researched intraday prices through 2026-10-01T14:28:00.000Z; earlier gaps and moves are excluded. All five pass the price and reported market-cap floors. Dollar-volume figures are calculated as the mean of daily closing price multiplied by daily share volume over the 20 completed sessions from September 1 through September 29, excluding today's incomplete session. This is a close-based dollar-turnover estimate rather than transaction-level dollar turnover. Market caps retain the precision published by the quote source.

1. MU — confidence 59%. The earnings catalyst is officially scheduled and has not occurred. I expect demand for AI memory and favorable pricing to support guidance and an additional advance through tomorrow morning. This is an uncertain earnings forecast, not an assertion that results will beat expectations. Exceptional growth expectations create substantial disappointment and sell-the-news risk; emotional buying before the report could reverse sharply. The latest retrieved regular-session quote was $1076.00 at 14:48 UTC, labeled real-time by the source.
   Return: -3.83%; alpha: -2.87%.
2. CALM — confidence 62%. The earnings report has occurred and showed weaker sales and a loss amid falling egg prices. I expect continued earnings-estimate pressure to outweigh the initial recovery from the opening low, producing an additional decline from the current quote. Today's earlier drop is excluded from the expected move. The observed rebound warns that pessimism may already be discounted; bargain buying and short covering could defeat the continuation thesis. The latest retrieved regular-session quote was $66.49 at 15:02 UTC, labeled real-time.
   Return: -0.69%; alpha: 1.65%.
3. HPE — confidence 58%. The contract announcement and increased networking growth targets have occurred; realization of those targets remains a future expectation. Together they support further reassessment of AI infrastructure demand and an additional advance from the current price. The substantial gain already recorded today is excluded. Emotional continuation could overshoot fundamentals, while profit taking, contract execution concerns, or disappointing Micron commentary could reverse momentum. The latest retrieved regular-session quote was $65.94 at 15:09 UTC, labeled real-time.
   Return: -2.34%; alpha: -1.38%.
4. JBL — confidence 55%. Results and the investor briefing have occurred. Reported fourth-quarter core EPS was $4.40, while fiscal 2027 core EPS guidance of $17.55 is a management forecast. I expect a partial rebound as investors reassess that outlook after the sharp intraday selloff. This forecasts recovery from the current quote and does not count the earlier decline. Persistent selling despite favorable headline guidance signals that expectations may have been higher; emotional downside continuation and a weak Micron report are significant risks. The latest retrieved regular-session quote was $295.90 at 15:03 UTC, labeled real-time.
   Return: -1.85%; alpha: -0.89%.
5. BA — confidence 54%. The Navy selection announcement has occurred and supports sentiment toward Boeing's defense business. I expect additional buying as investors digest the award, with only movement from the latest quote included. Future program revenue and profitability remain uncertain. The retreat from today's opening price suggests limited emotional continuation, and development costs, execution risk, or profit taking could outweigh the favorable headline. The latest retrieved regular-session quote was $190.00 at 15:05 UTC, labeled real-time; this is newer than the overview page's $190.10 quote.
   Return: -1.65%; alpha: -0.69%.

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How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks with positive alpha	Avg alpha vs SPY
Grok 4.5	5	56.00%	+1.45%
Muse Spark 1.1	5	64.00%	+1.34%
GPT-5.6 Sol	2	60.00%	+0.69%
DeepSeek	5	57.00%	+0.59%
ChatGPT	1	60.00%	+0.50%
Perplexity	4	40.00%	-0.05%
Claude Opus 5	1	40.00%	-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.27%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	4	45.00%	-0.32%
Claude Opus 5.5	2	40.00%	-0.32%
GPT-6	2	30.00%	-0.69%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	2	20.00%	-4.43%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
ACN	179.44000000	223.05880000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACN/history/
AYI	308.02000000	296.49000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AYI/history/
BA	189.17000000	186.04000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/
CAG	13.67500000	13.04700000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAG/history/
CALM	66.50000000	66.04000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CALM/history/
CCL	25.23500000	24.60500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL/history/
CTVA	78.24000000	12.28000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CTVA/history/	Corrected 2026-10-08 (exclude): Split to Vylor
FDS	265.14000000	281.07000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDS/history/
HPE	64.71500000	63.20000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPE/history/
JBL	297.15000000	291.64500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBL/history/
JEF	45.60500000	44.55000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JEF/history/
MKC	47.21000000	45.69000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MKC/history/
MU	1075.87600000	1034.69000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/
NKE	35.77000000	35.76500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/
SPY	768.13000000	760.75000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
STZ	113.38000000	112.85000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STZ/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v12, SHA-256 67223e6dc21534b29a4977236821c02c0e1885f52016129a00f0994293e1258b. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.