This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for BTC, created 2026-09-25 14:57 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-26 14:57 UTC, when BTC closed at $84029.32, up 0.1% from $83919.24 when the forecast was made. It traded between $83347.00 and $84323.70 along the way (-0.7% to +0.5%).
Prediction window: Continuous elapsed hours / calendar days; crypto trades 24/7.
Prediction time: 2026-09-25 14:57 UTC (9/25/2026, 10:57:11 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-26 14:57 UTC (9/26/2026, 10:57:11 AM EDT). Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Crypto · 24/7. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 7 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $82700.00–$86300.00 | -1.8% to +2.5% | 61% | $84202.00 | 81.3 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $81800.00–$86200.00 | -2.4% to +2.9% | 38% | $83796.00 | 78.5 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $81500.00–$86500.00 | -2.7% to +3.3% | 70% | $83728.00 | 81.8 | right |
| Perplexity | $81500.00–$87500.00 | -3.7% to +3.4% | 54% | $84628.00 | 34.8 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $82500.00–$86000.00 | -2.1% to +2.0% | 42% | $84300.00 | 52.4 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $82400.00–$86900.00 | -2.7% to +2.6% | 60% | $84700.00 | 52.9 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $82000.00–$87000.00 | -3.0% to +3.0% | 55% | $84500.00 | 52.5 | no call |
How these models have done on BTC over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-25 14:57 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 14 | — | 8 | 3 · 2 right | 3 · 3 right | 83% (5/6) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 17 | — | 2 | 4 · 3 right | 11 · 8 right | 73% (11/15) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 17 | — | 4 | 7 · 5 right | 6 · 4 right | 69% (9/13) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 11 | — | 4 | 7 · 4 right | — | 57% (4/7) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 14 | — | 3 | 2 · 1 right | 9 · 5 right | 55% (6/11) |
| GPT-6 | 6 | — | 2 | — | 4 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| DeepSeek | 17 | — | 8 | 5 · 2 right | 4 · 1 right | 33% (3/9) |
| Perplexity | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Kimi | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published BTC forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-25 14:57 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: BTC was trading near $84,200 around the forecast start. Investing.com showed Bitfinex BTC/USD at approximately $84,202 with a Sept. 25 intraday range near $82,865-$84,890, while Fortune reported $84,413.49 at 9:00 a.m. ET. CoinDesk reported BTC near $84,000-$85,000 and noted that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had accumulated about $2.84 billion of net inflows over six sessions, exceeding the roughly $2.4 billion of recently realized holder profits. :chatgpt-content-reference{index=
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quotes dated Sep 25, 2026 - Finnhub reports current price $83,796.09 with high $85,255 and low $83,183【4498525856951722047†L24-L31】, Convex reports $84,613.9 on Sep 25, 2026【6123611682425312373†L26-L28】, OKX reports $84,425.39【6123611682425312373†L35-L39】. News context: Bitcoin trading around $84,000 after retreating from highs as US 10-year yield rises to 5.18% and hike pricing caps risk【5197686821894439157†L5-L8】 and slips from about $87,400 to about $84,400【5197686821894439157†L10-L12】, holding tight range near $84K【5197686821894439157†L15-L18】.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation after mid-September rebound. Price is 18.5% above 200-day MA but daily RSI 76.5 flagged overbought with Fear & Greed 71 (Greed) and funding 0.0000% per CryptoCycleIndex snapshot at $84,005 on Sep 25【6123611682425312373†L59-L63】. Macro is risk-off pressure from rising real yields, offset by institutional buying attempting to hold $83k-$85k zone noted as important for recovery【5197686821894439157†L42-L45】.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $83,796 current, using observed intraday range $83,183-$85,255 from Finnhub【4498525856951722047†L28-L31】 as baseline volatility ~2.5%. For 1-day forecast, expand to $81,800-$86,200 to account for yield-driven wick risk below recent $83k support and retest of $85k-$86k resistance that rejected first attempt. Asymmetric downside skew reflects mild bearish tilt near term while staying within ~3% move, consistent with low leverage indicated by flat funding.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Triple witching and Sep 25 date flagged as test with $78,500 level in focus【5197686821894439157†L36-L39】, plus week of Sep 21-27 Fed speeches, US statistics, and US-China negotiations highlighted as volatility sources【5197686821894439157†L53-L57】. No BTC-specific halving or ETF decision inside 1-day window; driver remains rates and equity correlation.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull invalidation is a dovish Fed speaker or Trump-Xi summit optimism lifting risk, which prior coverage noted as supporting momentum above $86k【5197686821894439157†L41-L44】. If $83,183 low holds and spot ETF inflows re-accelerate, range shifts up to $85k-$87.4k. Bear invalidation deeper than $81.8k would require 10-year pushing beyond 5.18% and broad tech selloff.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 38% reflects conflicting live prints ($83.7k-$84.6k) and mixed signals - overbought RSI vs strong trend above 200DMA, greed sentiment vs rising yields. Short horizon direction is close to noise, hence mild bearish not bearish, and wide range relative to intraday high/low to capture headline risk from Fed and triple witching.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
<Image src="image_agent_tag_2561895491178620826" alt="Bitcoin price drawdown chart" caption="Bitcoin Drawdown" />
(1) Sources give Bitcoin trading at $83,728 as of 14:55 UTC. Recent news highlights a massive $999 million daily inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and an impending $16 billion options expiry on Deribit.
(2) The market regime is broadly bullish but experiencing intraday consolidation. The asset recently reclaimed the $80,000 level driven by institutional demand and short liquidations, though it has slightly cooled from its local high near $86,000.
(3) Over the next 24 hours, the price range of $81,500-$86,500 reflects typical intraday volatility. The downside is protected by recent ETF inflow support, while upside momentum is temporarily capped by the options expiry dynamics.
(4) The primary catalyst inside the window is the massive $16 billion options expiry on Deribit. This event removes a significant layer of positioning and could unlock directional volatility once the expiry clears.
(5) The strongest counter-argument is that the options max-pain level sits significantly lower at $72,000 to $75,000. A sudden de-risking event or aggressive selling to pin prices closer to max pain could invalidate the bullish thesis.
(6) Confidence is 70% because, while institutional inflows provide a strong fundamental floor, the immediate uncertainty surrounding the record-sized options expiry warrants near-term caution.
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: BTC is trading near $84,628 based on Yahoo Finance data timestamped 11:55:40 UTC on September 25, 2026. It opened at $84,378.12, reached $87,265.49 earlier in the week, and was reported to be roughly 10.4% higher than one week earlier, indicating positive short-term momentum but meaningful pullback risk from recent highs.
(2) Technical and positioning synthesis: The recent breakout above the low-$80,000 area appears constructive, while the retreat from the approximately $87,265 weekly high argues against a strong one-day directional call. Nearly $16 billion of Deribit Bitcoin options expire on September 25; calls reportedly represent about $9.6 billion of that open interest versus $6.4 billion in puts, with notable call concentrations around $90,000 and $100,000.
(3) Price range: The one-day range of $81,500-$87,500 allows for roughly 3.7% downside and 3.4% upside from the current quote. It reflects elevated event risk around options settlement, recent intraday volatility, and nearby resistance below the recent $87,265 high rather than assuming that the options strikes are projected levels.
(4) Catalysts: The main event inside the window is the September 25 Deribit options expiry. The Economic Times reports that pre-expiry calm may partly reflect positive dealer gamma and that the expiry can materially change hedging flows afterward. The scheduled U.S. core PCE release for July 2026 is also listed for September 25 in the 2026 economic calendar, creating a possible macro-volatility catalyst.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish case is that post-expiry hedging support disappears and spot demand fails to absorb profit-taking, sending BTC back toward the low-$80,000s. A sustained move below approximately $82,000 would weaken the recent breakout structure; conversely, a decisive break above $87,265 would invalidate the neutral one-day framing and favor continuation toward the upper end of the range or beyond.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 54% because current price and recent performance are available, but the forecast horizon is only one day and the large options expiry can produce two-way volatility. The mixed signal supports mild bullish readings over the multi-day horizons, while the immediate one-day outlook remains neutral.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from multiple sources (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, OKX historical, BitKan, exchangerate.guru, bitcointreasuries.net) place BTC near $84,300 on 25 Sep 2026, with today's range roughly $83,500-$85,300 after a pullback from the recent $87,200-$87,400 high. News from CNBC TV18, 247WallSt, Valor Economico and CoinJuice confirm consolidation around $84k, strong prior ETF inflows ($1.7-2.65B multi-day), and a large Deribit options expiry (~$14-15.9B notional) settling today.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term corrective after a sharp mid-to-late September rally driven by ETF creations and short liquidations. Price is holding above the $82-83k breakout zone that marked the prior multi-month ceiling, while 10-year yields near multi-year highs and elevated rate-hike odds exert macro pressure. Fear & Greed remains in greed territory; underlying institutional demand (ETF flows, whale accumulation) is intact but the immediate post-rally setup is digesting leverage and gamma from the expiry.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$84,300 print. Recent daily ranges of $2-4k and the post-rally ATR imply a one-day band of roughly ±2-2.5%. Support cluster sits at $83,500-$82,500 (recent lows and Supertrend/breakout shelf); resistance at $85,000-$86,000 (prior consolidation and options max-pain area). The range $82,500-$86,000 therefore covers the most probable one-day extremes without requiring a fresh directional impulse.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The dominant event is the large quarterly Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit (already underway or settling around the window start). Residual gamma unwind, any late ETF flow prints, and ongoing sensitivity to Treasury yields are the main near-term drivers; no major economic releases or Fed speeches are timed inside the strict 24-hour window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A clean post-expiry squeeze higher on residual short covering or a sudden drop in yields could push price through $86k toward the recent high. Conversely, a decisive break and daily close below $82,500 would open the path toward $80-81k and invalidate the neutral consolidation thesis in favor of deeper mean-reversion.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day crypto forecasts are inherently noisy; the large options expiry adds an extra layer of path uncertainty that cannot be fully resolved from public positioning data alone. Evidence for a directional bias is mixed (constructive higher-timeframe structure versus short-term yield and gamma pressure), so confidence is kept modest at 42%.
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Sources and price: Yahoo Finance's Sept 25 daily price piece (https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/bitcoin-and-ethereum-prices-today-friday-september-25-2026-is-bitcoin-finally-on-a-path-to-250000-113048042.html) reports BTC opened at $84,378 and traded at $85,200 at 7:14 a.m. ET (11:14 UTC). The Bitcoin News Digest for Sept 25 (https://bitcoinnewsdigest.substack.com/p/bitcoin-news-digest-september-25-ca7) says spot oscillated between $84,000 and $85,000 before the New York open, with a Thursday-Friday range of about $82,800-$85,230. Aggregator quotes from recent days (CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Coinbase, Bitget) cluster at $84,100-$84,600. My latest timestamped quote predates the 14:57 UTC window start by roughly 3-4 hours, so $84,700 is an estimate at the midpoint of the pre-open band, not a tick at the baseline; data_access is therefore 'partial' rather than 'live', and answered_at_utc is 'unknown' because I have no reliable clock.
(2) Regime: BTC is up roughly 9-10% on the week (CoinGecko, Coinbase) and set an eight-month high near $87,265 on Wednesday (Yahoo), but it has since been capped by rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.17-5.18% and the 30-year touched about 5.47%, the highest since 2004 (News Digest; Bloomberg Sept 24). Spot ETF flows were positive for a sixth straight session (+$190.7M Thursday per Farside via the Digest) but are decelerating sharply from the ~$1B Monday print. My read is a short-term uptrend in consolidation under a macro ceiling.
(3) Range: Using roughly 2.5-3% one-day realised movement (recent sessions ran about $2,000-$2,500 high-to-low), I get a band from $82,400 to $86,900. The lower bound sits just below the Thursday low near $82,800 (Briefs/FxPro reported $82,882). The upper bound sits below the $87,265 weekly high, which the Digest notes has not been structurally reclaimed. The ~$85,000 area is near-term resistance and also the JPMorgan-estimated average production cost cited by the Digest. The range is close to symmetric on purpose, because I do not have a directional edge over 24 hours.
(4) Catalysts in window: Friday's large quarterly options expiry (CoinDesk, Sept 23) has settled by the window start. Pin effects fade after settlement, which can let realised volatility rise into the weekend. Weekend liquidity is thinner. Treasury yield moves during the U.S. session are the main macro driver. August PCE and the Q2 GDP revision on Sept 30 fall outside this window but may shape positioning. Residual contagion from the Bitget hot-wallet breach of roughly $352M (The Block, Sept 24) is a tail risk.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: A bullish case says persistent ETF inflows, a record altcoin breadth rally (CoinDesk), and bullish-leaning options positioning could produce a push through $85,200 toward $87,000. A decisive hourly hold above ~$85,500 would argue against neutrality. A bearish case says 30-year yields at 22-year highs and markets pricing about four Fed hikes by mid-2027 could trigger a break below $82,800. A daily close there would invalidate the range and point to a retest of the high-$70,000s where the week began.
(6) Confidence: 60% reflects a one-day horizon in a rate-sensitive market with opposing forces of roughly equal weight. It is also reduced by my price anchor being a few hours old rather than a live baseline quote, which could offset the center by several hundred dollars. The 7-day mild bullish tilt reflects the intact weekly uptrend and continuing ETF demand. The 30-day neutral reflects the unresolved rates headwind.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Bitcoin is trading around $84,000-$85,000 after pulling back from an eight-month high of $87,315 hit on Monday. The pullback coincides with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.12%-5.20%, its highest since 2007, and CME FedWatch pricing a 70%-77% probability of another 25bp rate hike at the October FOMC meeting. A $15.6 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit settled at 08:00 UTC today with max pain at $75,000-$78,000, well below spot, meaning the gravitational pin has been removed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2.6 billion in weekly net inflows, the strongest week since October 2025, though daily flows slowed to $28.1 million on September 24. A $351.6 million hack at exchange Bitget on September 24 added a negative sentiment shock, but the exchange says user funds are covered by its $464 million protection fund. Sources include Yahoo Finance, CoinShares, CNBC TV18, Morningstar/Dow Jones, CoinMarketCap, and Deribit expiry data. (2) Market regime: Macro is the dominant force. Higher Treasury yields and hawkish Fed repricing are textbook headwinds for non-yielding assets, yet Bitcoin has held above $80,000 and posted a roughly 10% weekly gain, suggesting genuine spot demand beneath the surface. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 71-73 (Greed), funding rates are near-neutral at 0.00%-0.01%, and open interest has cooled, indicating leverage has been reduced rather than rebuilt. This is a market absorbing macro shocks with relative resilience but facing a heavy technical ceiling. (3) Price range: The $82,000 level is the first support, marking the former breakout zone that capped price for weeks before the recent rally. Below that, the weekly 50-period moving average near $78,000 is the trend-defining level, with $75,000 as the critical floor that has been defended repeatedly. To the upside, $87,000-$87,300 is the obvious resistance that rejected price on Wednesday, with $90,000 as the next psychological barrier. Realized volatility over the past week has been elevated due to the sharp rally and reversal, so a daily range of roughly $5,000 is consistent with recent price action. The range is skewed slightly downward because the macro impulse remains negative and the post-expiry positioning may leave the market temporarily unanchored. (4) Catalysts inside the window: The Deribit options expiry has already passed at 08:00 UTC, so the near-term dealer hedging flows associated with that event are largely resolved. The Bitget hack investigation remains fluid, with the exchange promising a root-cause report within 24 hours and withdrawals still suspended. Fed speakers are likely to remain in focus ahead of the September 30 PCE inflation print, which is the next major macro data point. Any further move in the 10-year Treasury yield will be the single most important swing factor for BTC over the next 24 hours. (5) Counter-argument: The strongest case against a bearish lean is that Bitcoin has already demonstrated it can rally despite rising yields and a stalled CLARITY Act. ETF inflows remain substantial on a weekly basis, whale accumulation continues, and the removal of the max-pain pin at $75,000 could free price to drift higher rather than lower. If the 10-year yield stabilizes or retreats, Bitcoin could quickly reclaim $86,000-$87,000. The call would be invalidated by a decisive break above $87,300 on strong volume, which would signal that macro headwinds are being overridden by spot demand. (6) Confidence: 55% reflects genuine two-sided risk. The macro backdrop is clearly negative, but crypto's recent resilience and strong ETF flows argue against a high-conviction bearish call. A one-day window is inherently noisy, and the post-expiry environment adds uncertainty about short-term positioning. An honest confidence level here is modest.
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