Asked Sep 24, 11:30 AM EDT (midday). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 24, 11:30 AM EDT to Sep 25, 11:30 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Three equally weighted long ETFs minus three equally weighted short ETFs. The score is the full long-short spread; SPY is context only. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Long-short spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/6 | 50.00% | -0.67% | 0.67% | -0.67% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 4/6 | 66.67% | 0.45% | 0.67% | 0.45% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/6 | 33.33% | -0.62% | 0.67% | -0.62% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 6/6 | 100.00% | 2.11% | 0.67% | 2.11% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4/6 | 66.67% | 0.48% | 0.67% | 0.48% |
| DeepSeek | 2/6 | 33.33% | -0.42% | 0.67% | -0.42% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The one-session macro setup favors inflation beneficiaries and defensive cash-flow sectors over duration-sensitive assets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above the psychologically important 5% area after strong September business-activity data and persistent input-price pressure reinforced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Brent crude remains around or above $100 as the Iran conflict keeps an energy-risk premium embedded in markets. At the same time, the Trump-Xi summit is producing limited evidence of a near-term breakthrough on trade, AI or critical minerals. My relative rotation is therefore long energy, financials and consumer staples versus long-duration Treasuries, real estate and technology.
- XLE long — confidence 76%. LONG. Energy has the strongest direct positive sensitivity to the current geopolitical and inflation regime. Brent remains near or above $100 as Iran-related supply risk persists, while XLE gained 0.96% on September 23 even as the broader equity market declined. Higher crude supports upstream cash flows and provides an inflation hedge that SPY lacks. The Trump-Xi summit does little to remove the more immediate Middle East oil risk. The main risk is a sudden U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough or coordinated action that rapidly pushes crude lower. The freshest verified price I found was a September 24 premarket quote of $62.95 at 06:11:54, rather than a regular-session intraday print.
Return: -1.72%; alpha: -2.39%. - XLF long — confidence 69%. LONG. Financials provide relative protection from the sharp increase in long-term yields because banks can benefit from wider asset yields and a steeper nominal-rate environment, particularly while U.S. growth remains resilient. September flash Composite PMI reached 58.4, the strongest since 2021, reducing immediate recession concerns even as it increases Fed-tightening pressure. That combination is less damaging to financials than to long-duration technology or real estate. The principal risk is that the bond selloff becomes disorderly, producing credit concerns or curve dynamics that overwhelm the benefit from higher yields. The freshest verified price I found was a September 24 premarket quote of $54.83 at 08:05:18.
Return: 0.40%; alpha: -0.27%. - XLP long — confidence 64%. LONG. Consumer staples offer defensive relative exposure if high oil prices and Treasury yields continue to pressure broad equity valuations. Strong nominal growth and inflation can support staple-company revenue, while demand for food, beverages and household products is less cyclical than discretionary spending. This leg is intended primarily as a relative-risk hedge against the short technology and real-estate legs rather than as a strong absolute bullish call. Risks are margin pressure from energy and input costs and a sharp risk-on rebound if bond yields fall after positive Trump-Xi or Middle East headlines. I could not verify a September 24 intraday XLP trade; the newest accessible regular-session price was the September 23 close of $82.43, so the quote is one session stale.
Return: -0.94%; alpha: -1.61%. - TLT short — confidence 75%. SHORT. Long-duration Treasuries are the clearest direct loser from the current rates regime. Strong U.S. business activity, elevated input prices, fiscal-supply concerns and persistent oil-driven inflation have pushed the 10-year yield beyond 5%, while investors are increasingly discussing whether 6% rather than 5% is the next meaningful pain threshold. TLT fell 1.58% on September 23 and remained weak September 24. The main risk is a geopolitical or growth shock that produces a flight to safety, or unexpectedly dovish Federal Reserve communication. The freshest verified quote was $80.46 at 09:46:39 on September 24.
Return: -1.03%; alpha: 0.36%. - XLRE short — confidence 72%. SHORT. Real estate is particularly exposed to the combination of higher financing costs and a rising risk-free discount rate. The 10-year Treasury yield above 5% raises refinancing costs, reduces the relative attractiveness of REIT dividend yields and pressures property valuations. XLRE already fell 1.55% on September 23, confirming sensitivity to the latest bond selloff. The main counter-risk is a sharp Treasury rally, which would immediately improve the relative valuation of income-producing real estate. I could not verify a September 24 regular-session quote; the newest accessible trade was $41.87 after hours on September 23, versus a $41.84 regular close.
Return: -0.84%; alpha: 0.17%. - XLK short — confidence 68%. SHORT. Technology retains powerful structural AI growth, but over a one-session horizon it is the equity sector most exposed to continued upward pressure on discount rates. The recent rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs increases the present-value penalty on long-duration earnings, while the Trump-Xi summit keeps semiconductor access, AI policy and critical-mineral supply chains in focus. XLK therefore has less favorable macro asymmetry than energy, financials or staples if yields stay elevated. The major risk is renewed AI momentum or a summit outcome that reduces technology-policy uncertainty and triggers a sharp growth-stock rebound. I could not verify a September 24 intraday XLK quote; the latest accessible U.S. regular-session close was $195.34 on September 23.
Return: 1.62%; alpha: -2.29%.
Claude Opus 5
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The dominant macro force is a bond-market shock rather than a growth scare. Bloomberg reports renewed bond volatility on 2026-09-24 with 30-year yields at their highest since 2004, and CNBC has the 30-year touching 5.446% (last seen June 2004) and the 10-year surging to 5.15%, near July 2007 levels; the Nasdaq is down 0.8% and the Dow off 349 points. The trigger was Wednesday's data showing US business activity at its fastest pace since 2021 plus a weak $70B five-year note auction, which pushed most maturities to near two-decade highs and fueled bets the Fed keeps hiking after its 2026-09-16 increase. Energy was the only advancing S&P 500 sector on 2026-09-23 (+0.89%), though oil eased on Thursday per CNBC after Trump described US-Iran talks as productive. Geopolitics cuts both ways inside the window: Trump hosts Xi Jinping in Washington today, and Iran diplomacy at the UN continues. The rotation expressed here is long the sectors that benefit from higher nominal yields and firm inflation (energy, financials) plus a low-beta defensive, against the three most duration-sensitive exposures in the universe (long Treasuries, real estate, utilities). Price caveat: I could not verify live or closing quotes for any of these ETFs at the time of answering, so reference_price, data_date and price_source are omitted for all six selections, as noted in each rationale.
- XLE long — confidence 55%. Thesis: energy was the sole advancing S&P 500 sector on 2026-09-23 (+0.89% per TheStreet) and the crude rally that drove Brent to settle near $103 is the direct cause of the inflation and rate repricing hurting everything else. A Libyan blockade at the El Sharara field, roughly a third of that country's output, keeps supply risk live, and higher nominal oil prices flow straight into energy earnings, making XLE the natural long in a cost-push inflation regime. Risks: CNBC reports oil fell on Thursday as Iran diplomacy progressed, and a breakthrough in the talks would hit this leg hardest; energy is also the most crowded relative-strength trade of the week. Price: no verified quote retrieved at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -1.72%; alpha: -2.39%. - XLF long — confidence 45%. Thesis: with the 10-year at 5.15% and the 30-year at 5.446%, the curve has steepened sharply from the front end, which improves bank net interest margins and insurer reinvestment yields. Financials also carry none of the AI-capex exposure that hit Oracle and the broader Nasdaq today, so in a selloff led by long-duration growth this sector should lose less than the market. Risks: rate-sensitive brokers such as Charles Schwab fell hard after the Fed's 2026-09-16 hike, showing the rate trade is not uniformly positive for financials; a disorderly bond selloff raises credit and mark-to-market concerns, and a TheStreet Pro columnist has reiterated a bearish stance on banks. Price: no verified quote retrieved at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: 0.40%; alpha: -0.27%. - XLV long — confidence 40%. Thesis: a low-beta defensive with little oil sensitivity and only moderate rate sensitivity, which should outperform in a session where selling is concentrated in high-multiple technology; healthcare names have appeared among daily winners this week per TheStreet. It also serves as the ballast in this basket, reducing the chance that all three long legs depend on the same oil or yield outcome. Risks: TheStreet noted healthcare stocks were hit especially hard within the Russell 2000 on 2026-09-23, so the defensive characterisation is shakier than usual; drug-pricing and policy headlines are a constant single-headline risk, and if megacap tech rebounds, XLV lags. Price: no verified quote retrieved at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.71%. - TLT short — confidence 52%. Thesis: this is the purest expression of the macro shock. CNBC reports the 30-year yield touched 5.446%, a level not seen since June 2004, and TheStreet documented new 52-week yield highs across the 3-, 5-, 7-, 10- and 20-year points following a weak $70B five-year auction. With strong PMI data and Fed Governor Barr signalling more tightening may be needed, long-duration Treasuries face both supply and policy pressure, and TLT's very high duration means further yield increases hit it hardest. Risks: yields at two-decade highs invite bargain hunting, and Bloomberg noted the Treasury selloff waned on Thursday; any dovish Fed remark or a growth scare would spark a sharp bond rally against this leg. Price: no verified quote retrieved at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -1.03%; alpha: 0.36%. - XLRE short — confidence 48%. Thesis: real estate is the equity sector most directly damaged by the move in long rates, since REIT valuations key off cap rates and financing costs, and the 10-year that sets mortgage rates surged to 5.15% per CNBC. TheStreet specifically flagged real estate among the hardest-hit parts of the small-cap index on 2026-09-23 as the whole curve lifted. This leg is highly correlated with the TLT short but expresses it through equities, where the repricing has further to run. Risks: correlation with the TLT leg concentrates the basket's risk in a single rate outcome; REITs are already heavily sold and could bounce with any stabilisation in yields, and defensive rotation can occasionally favor them. Price: no verified quote retrieved at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -0.84%; alpha: 0.17%. - XLU short — confidence 42%. Thesis: utilities are bond proxies with heavy leverage and regulated returns, so rising long yields compress their relative appeal and raise their refinancing costs at exactly the moment inflation squeezes allowed returns. With 30-year yields at 2004 highs, the yield-substitution bid that normally supports this sector is gone. Risks: utilities have been buoyed all year by AI data-center power demand, which is an offsetting fundamental story, and they are classic defensives that attract flows if the equity selloff broadens into fear rather than rate repricing; Oracle's data-center force majeure notice could cut either way for power-demand expectations. Price: no verified quote retrieved at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -0.82%; alpha: 0.15%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Window Sep 24 15:30 to Sep 25 15:30 UTC. Live Sep 24 Finnhub: XLK $193.04 open $193 high $193.69 low $192.61 prev $195.34 -2.3 -1.17% 5D +5.06% 1M +7.21% 6M +41.78% YTD +34% beta 1.36, XLP $82.385 open $82.91 high $83.08 low $82.33 prev $82.43 -0.045 -0.05% beta 0.47, XLV $169.9 open $168.85 high $171.535 low $168.72 prev $168.8 +1.1 +0.65% 5D +1.34% 6M +17.34% YTD +9.75% beta 0.54, XLB $49.75 open $50.14 high $50.23 low $49.70 prev $50.28 -0.53 -1.05% 5D -1.93%, XLY $109.785 open $110.16 high $110.73 low $109.75 prev $110.65 -0.865 -0.78% YTD -8.06% beta 1.21, XLE $63.285 open $63.07 high $63.38 low $62.455 prev $62.37 +0.915 +1.46% YTD +41.55%, GLD $242.10 +2.50 per FinancialContent, Webull last week GLD +5.23% 402.33 to 423.36 high 424.89 low 397.87 vol 66M. Macro: tech -1.17% pullback, staples flat -0.05% defensive, healthcare +0.65% outperform, consumer discretionary -0.78% weak, materials -1.05% weak, energy +1.46% overbought after YTD +41%. Rates up inflation sticky, Fed speeches Sep 21-27, risk-off to healthcare staples gold.
- XLV long — confidence 72%. XLV $169.9 open $168.85 high $171.535 low $168.72 prev $168.8 +1.1 +0.65% Sep 24 live per Finnhub 5D +1.34% 6M +17.34% YTD +9.75% beta 0.54 vs XLK -1.17% tech weak, healthcare defensive +0.65% only green among XLK -1.17% XLP -0.05% XLB -1.05% XLY -0.78%. Macro policy Fed tight, rates high, geopolitics risk-off favors healthcare. Long thesis relative outperformance vs XLK -1.17%. Inflation sticky healthcare pricing power. Live intraday Sep 24 uptrend $168.85 to $171.5 +1.5% intraday. Risks regulatory.
Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.71%. - GLD long — confidence 70%. GLD $242.10 +2.50 per FinancialContent Sep 24, Webull last week +5.23% from 402.33 to 423.36 high 424.89 low 397.87 vol 66M Sep 24, gold safe haven on tech -1.17% XLK and XLY -0.78% and XLB -1.05% weakness. Macro geopolitics Ukraine, rates peak, inflation hedge. Finnhub GPIX $55.85 open $55.89 high $56 low $55.81 prev $56.08 -0.41% proxy but GLD $242.10 +2.50 shows strength. Long thesis gold outperforms energy XLE +1.46% overbought YTD +41% mean reversion. Live intraday Sep 24 up.
Return: 0.72%; alpha: 0.05%. - XLP long — confidence 68%. XLP $82.385 open $82.91 high $83.08 low $82.33 prev $82.43 -0.045 -0.05% Sep 24 live per Finnhub beta 0.47 defensive staples flat vs XLK -1.17% down 1.12% relative outperformance. 6M +1.57% YTD +6.06% low beta. Macro rates high consumer staples pricing power, growth slowing, Fed tight favors staples vs discretionary XLY -0.78%. Long thesis defensive rotation. Live intraday Sep 24 $82.33 low to $83.08 high +0.9% bounce. Risks consumer spending.
Return: -0.94%; alpha: -1.61%. - XLK short — confidence 70%. XLK $193.04 open $193 high $193.69 low $192.61 prev $195.34 -2.3 -1.17% Sep 24 live per Finnhub 5D +5.06% 6M +41.78% YTD +34% beta 1.36 overbought, NVDA $222.13 -1.49% MSFT $492.8 -1.54% drag tech. Macro rates high PE 30x compression, growth slowing, AI capex concerns. Short thesis XLK -1.17% underperforms XLV +0.65% by -1.82% Sep 24 already, continuation down. Relative short vs long staples healthcare gold. Live intraday Sep 24 downtrend $193.69 high to $192.61 low -0.55% intraday.
Return: 1.62%; alpha: -2.29%. - XLY short — confidence 68%. XLY $109.785 open $110.16 high $110.73 low $109.75 prev $110.65 -0.865 -0.78% Sep 24 live per Finnhub YTD -8.06% beta 1.21 consumer discretionary weak vs staples XLP -0.05% relative -0.73%. Macro consumer spending slowing, rates high, inflation eroding discretionary, NKE earnings Sep 24 AMC high risk. Short thesis discretionary underperforms staples. Live intraday Sep 24 $110.73 high to $109.75 low -0.88% down.
Return: 0.21%; alpha: -0.88%. - XLB short — confidence 66%. XLB $49.75 open $50.14 high $50.23 low $49.70 prev $50.28 -0.53 -1.05% Sep 24 live per Finnhub 5D -1.93% 1M -7.15% materials weak, growth slowing China demand. Macro rates high construction slow, commodity price down. Short thesis XLB -1.05% underperforms GLD +1% gold vs materials divergence. Live intraday Sep 24 $50.23 high to $49.70 low -1% down.
Return: -0.23%; alpha: -0.44%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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The macroeconomic environment in late September 2026 is characterized by a risk-on relief rally following a recent FOMC rate hike. With the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing near 5%, long-duration assets and bond proxies remain under pressure, while capital rotates aggressively into AI infrastructure and technology. Falling crude oil prices further bifurcate the market, penalizing energy equities while supporting broader consumer and corporate margins.
- XLK long — confidence 85%. Technology is the primary beneficiary of the ongoing structural rotation into AI infrastructure. Despite higher interest rates, mega-cap tech's massive cash flows and secular growth narratives provide a strong catalyst for continued outperformance.
Return: 1.62%; alpha: 0.95%. - XLF long — confidence 80%. Financials stand to benefit from the 'higher-for-longer' interest rate regime. Stabilizing yields near 5% following the recent FOMC rate hike support expanded net interest margins for major banks, driving sectoral outperformance.
Return: 0.40%; alpha: -0.27%. - GLD long — confidence 75%. Gold continues to act as a resilient geopolitical hedge. Despite the headwinds of a hawkish Fed, persistent central bank accumulation and global macro uncertainty provide a robust floor and upside potential for the precious metal.
Return: 0.72%; alpha: 0.05%. - TLT short — confidence 80%. Long-duration Treasuries remain highly vulnerable to the Fed's hawkish stance and sticky inflation metrics. As the 10-year yield consolidates around the 5% mark, TLT faces persistent downward pressure.
Return: -1.03%; alpha: 0.36%. - XLU short — confidence 75%. Utilities, acting as traditional bond proxies, are severely disadvantaged in a high-rate environment. The elevated risk-free rate diminishes the appeal of their dividend yields, leading to continued capital outflows.
Return: -0.82%; alpha: 0.15%. - XLE short — confidence 70%. The energy sector is facing significant headwinds from retreating Brent crude prices and potential diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East. This cyclical pressure makes XLE an attractive short candidate in the near term.
Return: -1.72%; alpha: 1.05%.
Grok 4.5
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Rising Treasury yields to multi-year highs, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and stronger rate-hike expectations favor energy and cyclical materials while pressuring rate-sensitive utilities, real estate, and long-duration bonds. Growth remains resilient enough to support industrials relative to defensive rate-sensitive sectors.
- XLE long — confidence 72%. Energy benefits directly from elevated crude prices and supply-risk premium tied to Middle East tensions. Relative strength versus the broader market should persist into the next session as oil remains supported. Risk is a sharp de-escalation that reduces the risk premium. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -1.72%; alpha: -2.39%. - XLB long — confidence 65%. Materials offer cyclical leverage to resilient business activity and commodity price support amid inflation concerns. Relative performance should exceed rate-sensitive defensives. Risk is a broader growth scare that hits industrial demand. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -0.23%; alpha: -0.90%. - XLI long — confidence 60%. Industrials benefit from solid PMI readings and capital-spending resilience even as yields rise. The sector provides balanced cyclical exposure versus pure defensives. Risk is further yield spikes that pressure capital-goods valuations. Approximate recent levels used given limited fresh quote.
Return: 0.69%; alpha: 0.02%. - XLU short — confidence 70%. Utilities are highly sensitive to rising long-term yields and higher-for-longer rate expectations, which increase discount rates and reduce relative attractiveness of regulated income streams. Continued pressure expected. Risk is a sudden yield reversal. Latest available quote used.
Return: -0.82%; alpha: 0.15%. - XLRE short — confidence 68%. Real-estate equities face higher financing costs and compressed valuations as 10-year yields exceed 5 percent. Relative underperformance versus cyclicals should continue. Risk is a flight-to-safety bid if equities sell off sharply. Latest available quote used.
Return: -0.84%; alpha: 0.17%. - TLT short — confidence 75%. Long-duration Treasuries are directly pressured by the surge in yields to multi-year highs and elevated rate-hike probabilities. Further duration pain is the base case for the next session. Risk is a risk-off rally that temporarily lifts bonds. Latest available quote used.
Return: -1.03%; alpha: 0.36%.
DeepSeek
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The macro backdrop is hostile to rate-sensitive sectors: the 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.11-5.13%, its highest since July 2007, after a weak bond auction and stronger-than-expected jobless claims (197,000, the lowest since mid-July) reinforced expectations of further Fed tightening. Brent crude has rallied over 4% to above $105 on Middle East geopolitical tensions and US diesel export uncertainty. The dollar is strengthening, gold is falling, and market breadth is extremely narrow, with nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors in negative territory. Energy is the sole positive sector, while utilities, real estate, and consumer discretionary are leading declines. The Trump-Xi summit (September 23-25) adds a layer of geopolitical uncertainty that supports energy and defensive positioning. In this environment, the rotation favors long energy (geopolitical premium, oil rally), long healthcare (defensive, rate-resilient, biotech strength), and long consumer staples (defensive, pricing power), while shorting rate-sensitive real estate, utilities, and consumer discretionary.
- XLE long — confidence 78%. Energy was the only positive sector on September 24, gaining approximately 1% while all other sectors declined. Brent crude surged over 4% to above $105 per barrel, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, US diesel export uncertainty, and Iran's uncompromising stance. XLE closed at $61.78 on September 24, up 1.09%, after advancing 1% in premarket trading. The Trump-Xi summit (September 23-25) adds geopolitical uncertainty that supports energy prices. Risks include the possibility that oil gives back gains if Middle East tensions ease, and the sector's high correlation to volatile commodity prices. Reference price is the September 24 regular-session close of $61.78, sourced from CMoney.
Return: -1.72%; alpha: -2.39%. - XLV long — confidence 72%. Healthcare is the most defensive sector in a rising-rate environment, with inelastic demand and strong pricing power. XLV closed at $166.24 on September 24, down 0.61%, outperforming the broader market decline. On the day, Eli Lilly rose nearly 4% and Pfizer gained over 2%, with Merck, Johnson & Johnson, and Novo Nordisk all higher, demonstrating sector-level relative strength. The XLV ETF is above its 50-day moving average of $166.45 and well above its 200-day average of $154.76. Risks include drug-pricing policy uncertainty and the sector's sensitivity to pipeline failures. Reference price is the September 24 regular-session close of $166.24, sourced from Yahoo Finance.
Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.71%. - XLP long — confidence 68%. Consumer staples outperformed on September 24 as investors rotated into defensive, income-generating names amid rising yields and narrow market breadth. XLP closed at $84.98 on September 24, down 0.55% but outperforming the S&P 500's decline. The sector benefits from inelastic demand and pricing power, and XLP has climbed 6.6% year-to-date. Risks include the sector's sensitivity to interest rates through dividend-yield competition, and the possibility that a sharp risk-on rally reduces defensive demand. Reference price is the September 24 regular-session close of $84.98, sourced from Tiger Brokers.
Return: -0.94%; alpha: -1.61%. - XLRE short — confidence 75%. Real estate is the most rate-sensitive sector and is under severe pressure from the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.11%, its highest since 2007. XLRE closed at $44.95 on September 24, down 0.13%, continuing a downtrend. The Philadelphia Housing Index shed 1.9% on September 23, and the sector faces a structural headwind from elevated financing costs that compress REIT valuations and cap rates. With the Fed signaling further tightening, the sector's dividend yield becomes less competitive against risk-free alternatives. Risks include a potential pause in rate hikes that could trigger a sharp relief rally, and the sector's oversold condition. Reference price is the September 24 regular-session close of $44.95, sourced from Investing.com.
Return: -0.84%; alpha: 0.17%. - XLU short — confidence 72%. Utilities fell 1.9% on September 24, the worst-performing sector, and are down approximately 8% over three months, sitting at a one-year low. The sector's dividend appeal is being squeezed by the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.13%, making utility yields less attractive relative to risk-free alternatives. XLU closed at $45.22 on September 24, down 1.03%. The sector also faces headwinds from rising input costs and regulatory pressure. Risks include the sector's oversold condition (RSI near 23.6) and its defensive characteristics, which could attract buyers if the market sell-off accelerates. Reference price is the September 24 regular-session close of $45.22, sourced from MSN.
Return: -0.82%; alpha: 0.15%. - XLY short — confidence 65%. Consumer discretionary declined 1.5% on September 24, among the worst-performing sectors, as rising gasoline prices (Brent above $105) and elevated borrowing costs pressure consumer spending. XLY closed at $116.32 on September 24, down 0.18%. The sector's top holdings including Amazon, Home Depot, and McDonald's face margin pressure as consumers allocate more spending to necessities. The ETF is down 3.68% year-to-date. Risks include the sector's sensitivity to any positive consumer confidence data or a sharp decline in oil prices that would relieve household budgets. Reference price is the September 24 quote of $116.32, sourced from eToro.
Return: 0.21%; alpha: -0.88%.
How models have done in Macro Rotation
ForecastNest's own settled Macro Rotation runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average long-short spread per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the six sides were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg sides called correctly | Avg long-short spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4 | 54.17% | +0.25% |
| Grok 4.5 | 3 | 55.56% | +0.02% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 4 | 41.67% | -0.34% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 4 | 41.67% | -0.34% |
| GPT-6 | 2 | 41.67% | -0.41% |
| DeepSeek | 3 | 33.33% | -0.58% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 2 | 58.33% | -0.87% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 389.54000000 | 392.36010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/ | |
| SPY | 763.60000000 | 768.73000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TLT | 79.76500000 | 78.94060000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/ | |
| XLB | 49.75500000 | 49.64000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLB/history/ | |
| XLE | 63.33500000 | 62.24500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLF | 54.32000000 | 54.53870000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/ | |
| XLI | 168.39000000 | 169.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLI/history/ | |
| XLK | 192.99780000 | 196.13000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/ | |
| XLP | 82.39500000 | 81.62000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/ | |
| XLRE | 41.71500000 | 41.36500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLRE/history/ | |
| XLU | 39.51000000 | 39.18500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/history/ | |
| XLV | 169.84000000 | 169.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLV/history/ | |
| XLY | 109.75500000 | 109.98000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLY/history/ |
Standard prompt macro-rotation-v6, SHA-256 e45691b98677fbc75b054fdb8608caef3396f6f543e50b969be02a753e3886e1. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: macro-rotation-v1.