This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-02 12:12 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC, when SOXL closed at $106.82, up 1.0% from $105.78 when the forecast was made. It traded between $98.63 and $108.07 along the way (-6.8% to +2.2%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-02 12:12 UTC (9/2/2026, 8:12:42 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC (9/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-03 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 31.79 elapsed hours. Timing: Premarket. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
Want to forecast SOXL -- or any other stock or ETF -- with your own model and see how it stacks up against these? Create your own AI model benchmark on ForecastNest.
5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Gemini — Pro, Grok, DeepSeek, and Claude — Opus found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $98.00–$111.50 | -6.8% to +6.0% | 78% | $105.15 | 30.6 | wrong |
| Gemini — Pro | $94.50–$110.00 | -8.9% to +6.1% | 70% | $103.70 | 19.3 | wrong |
| Grok | $92.00–$112.00 | -10.7% to +8.7% | 38% | $103.00 | 12.6 | wrong |
| DeepSeek | $95.00–$125.00 | -12.4% to +15.2% | 40% | $108.50 | 30.6 | wrong |
| Claude — Opus | $89.00–$112.00 | -11.9% to +10.9% | 48% | $101.03 | 6.8 | wrong |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-02 12:12 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Gemini — Pro | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Grok | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Claude — Opus | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-02 12:12 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: I could not retrieve a timestamped exchange quote exactly at or after 12:12 UTC, so $105.15 is my best current estimate rather than a verified tick. The estimate is derived from the reported September 2 decline of about 6.82% from the August 31 close of $112.85; ChartRow independently records the August 31 close at $112.85. A September 2 market snapshot also reported SOXL around $106 and down about 6.1%, confirming that the ETF had moved materially below the prior close. (Sources: BTCC market snapshot; ChartRow.) ([BTCC][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: The short-term structure has deteriorated sharply. SOXL gained 1.35% on August 31 but followed a sequence of large semiconductor-sector swings, including a 7.7% weekly loss through August 28 and a 16.8% loss in the week ending August 21. The September 2 decline therefore looks more like continuation of an already unstable downside regime than an isolated move. Investing.com also characterized SOXL's daily technical backdrop as Strong Sell. (Sources: ChartRow; Investing.com.) ([ChartRow][2])
(3) Price range: From an estimated $105.15 reference, I use $98.00-$111.50 as the one-day range. The downside boundary allows for another roughly 7% decline, which is plausible for a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF during a sector-wide risk-off session; the upside boundary allows for a substantial rebound without assuming that the recent breakdown has fully reversed. Options data showed an expected move of about ±$6.80 around the August 31 close, while SOXL's recent realized weekly moves have been considerably larger than ordinary equity volatility. (Source: thetaOwl.) ([thetaOwl][3])
(4) Catalysts: The most important catalyst inside this one-day window is Broadcom's fiscal Q3 earnings report scheduled for September 2 after the U.S. market close. Broadcom is a major semiconductor/AI-infrastructure company, so its results and outlook can materially affect semiconductor-sector sentiment. The broader backdrop is unfavorable: Reuters reports that U.S. equity futures were lower on September 2 as oil prices and Treasury yields rose amid U.S.-Iran tensions, with the market increasingly pricing a September Fed hike; Friday's U.S. employment report is the next major macro catalyst. (Sources: Reuters; MarketWatch.) ([Reuters][4])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that semiconductor demand and AI infrastructure remain structurally strong, while Broadcom's earnings could provide a powerful positive surprise. Recent semiconductor rallies have demonstrated how violently SOXL can rebound when chip stocks turn higher. A strong Broadcom result, easing geopolitical tension, falling oil prices, or a decline in Treasury yields would weaken the bearish one-day interpretation and could push SOXL rapidly back toward the $110-$112 area. (Sources: Reuters; Broadcom earnings previews.) ([Reuters][5])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 78% because several independent signals align: SOXL is undergoing a large September 2 decline, semiconductor shares in Asia were also weak, U.S. index futures were negative, oil and Treasury yields were rising, and the ETF's recent volatility has been exceptionally high. Confidence is capped below 80% because the exact 12:12 UTC SOXL quote could not be independently verified and because Broadcom's after-hours results create a major binary catalyst. The 7-day signal remains bearish because the macro and semiconductor-sector pressure can persist through Friday's employment report, while the 30-day signal is neutral because the underlying AI/semiconductor growth story remains strong despite the current technical damage. (Sources: BTCC; Reuters; Broadcom earnings coverage.) ([BTCC][1])
Gemini — Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and MarketChameleon indicates SOXL closed at $105.91 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, falling 6.1% on the day. Premarket trading data as of 12:10 UTC on September 2 shows the ETF gapping down further to $103.70.
(2) The current market regime is heavily risk-off for semiconductors. The sector is experiencing acute distribution, driven by early September institutional repositioning and broader macroeconomic growth concerns following a weak US manufacturing PMI print.
(3) The price range of $94.50-$110.00 accounts for the massive daily volatility inherent in a 3X leveraged ETF during a sector-wide sell-off. The downside bound allows for continued capitulation toward structural support in the mid-$90s, while the upside target permits a partial gap-fill if a relief bounce materializes.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, the primary catalyst will be momentum follow-through from Tuesday's tech sell-off and the broader market's digestion of incoming labor market data, such as JOLTs job openings, which will heavily influence risk appetite.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a continued bearish slide is the extreme short-term oversold condition of semiconductor equities. If the underlying index finds early-session support, SOXL's leverage could spark a violent, immediate short-covering rally that invalidates the downside bias.
(6) My confidence is 70%. While the technical and macroeconomic momentum clearly favors the bears, predicting intraday moves on a leveraged ETF during a high-volatility regime is inherently vulnerable to erratic whiplash.
Grok
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026 close was $105.91 (down 6.10% from Monday’s $112.79), day range $102.31-$108.64, volume ~63M, per ChartMill, FinanceCharts, MarketWatch and Stock Alarm. Pre-market Wednesday 2 Sep quoted near $102.81-$103.19 (Robinhood, ChartMill). 52-week range remains $23.80-$302.00.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp continuation of semiconductor weakness. The 3x leveraged ETF amplified the broader market’s soft session and sector-specific pressure, with SOXL dropping over 6% on elevated volume. Pre-market further soft, consistent with residual risk-off tone and high beta to chip names.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$103 pre-market level (last close $105.91). Recent daily ranges of $6-15+ and extreme leverage imply 1-day swings of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $92 allows for extension of the selloff; upper bound near $112 covers a rebound toward the prior close. Range is asymmetric to the downside reflecting the clear short-term momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific events or earnings for Wednesday 2 Sep. Broader market follow-through from Tuesday’s decline and any overnight geopolitical or rate-related news remain the primary drivers for this high-beta product.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound in tech/semis or positive overnight cues could push SOXL above $112; accelerated selling or weaker global markets could drive a break below $92. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the bearish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Tuesday close and pre-market quotes confirm the direction, yet 3x leveraged ETFs generate large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; absence of stock-specific catalysts keeps conviction moderate-to-low.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from multiple sources: Korean media reports SOXL traded in the $105 range on September 1, with a prior close of $112.79. Finviz shows last close at $123.05 on Aug 27 with aftermarket at $120.00. ChartExchange shows Aug 26 close at $114.54. Coinbase shows 24-hour low of $131.56 and high of $143.92, which appears to be stale data from earlier sessions. Based on the convergence of recent closing prices ($112.79 on Sep 1, $114.54 on Aug 26, $120.00 aftermarket Aug 27) and the pre-market strength of semiconductor stocks (SOXL up over 3% in pre-market), I estimate the current price as of 12:12 UTC on September 2, 2026 at approximately $108.50. This reflects a modest recovery from the Sep 1 levels but acknowledges the significant volatility and the fact that regular trading hours on Sep 2 have not yet fully played out. The 52-week range is $22.57-$302.00, with the all-time high reached on June 22, 2026 at $302.00.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: SOXL is in a steep downtrend from its June 22 peak of $302, having collapsed approximately 64% from that high (from $302 to ~$108). The underlying SOXX semiconductor index fell roughly 25% over the same period, meaning the 3x leverage has amplified losses significantly. Despite this collapse, SOXL attracted nearly $7 billion in net inflows during July and the first two weeks of August, with Korean retail investors holding approximately 30.8% of total shares. This 'buy-the-dip' behavior has created a floor of persistent buying pressure, though it has not halted the downtrend. The macro backdrop is challenging: a global bond selloff sent long-term yields surging, with oil above $91 and Strait of Hormuz closure concerns adding pressure. Semiconductor stocks slid on September 1 as rising yields and geopolitical tensions weighed on valuations. Additionally, Blue Ocean halted overnight quote dissemination for SOXL effective September 1 due to SEC compliance concerns related to excessive trading volume from Korean retail investors, which may reduce liquidity in after-hours trading and increase volatility during regular hours.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $125.00 - this sits above the Sep 1 trading level ($105 range) and represents a ~15% upside move from current levels. A recovery toward the Aug 27 close of $123.05 would signal a meaningful relief rally. Lower bound $95.00 - this is a psychological level below the Sep 1 trading range and represents a ~12% downside move. The range is intentionally wide ($30, or ~28% of current price) to account for the extreme daily volatility of this 3x leveraged ETF; the Aug 24 session alone saw a range from $115.07 to $106.00, a ~$9 move, and the ETF has demonstrated the ability to move 10-15% in a single day. The range is roughly symmetric around the current price ($108.50), reflecting a neutral 1-day view given the lack of clear directional conviction. The options-implied volatility is elevated at 123-149%, suggesting the market itself prices in large moves.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Wednesday September 2 has no major semiconductor-specific earnings or macro releases scheduled that would directly move the sector. However, the broader market is watching for the August jobs report on Friday September 4, which could influence Fed policy expectations. The prior day's ISM Manufacturing data and JOLTS job openings have already been released. For semiconductors specifically, the key near-term catalyst is Nvidia earnings (date not confirmed for this week) and Broadcom earnings due this week【previous analysis】. The massive $9.6 trillion September options expiration looms later in the month, which could alter dealer hedging dynamics【previous analysis】. In the immediate 1-day window, the primary catalyst is simply the continuation of pre-market buying interest - semiconductor stocks were reportedly rallying in pre-market with SOXL up over 3% - and whether that momentum sustains into the regular session.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is the persistent dip-buying from Korean retail investors, who have shown a willingness to buy SOXL even as it declines. This flow dynamic could create a floor and trigger a short-squeeze rally if the semiconductor sector shows any sign of stabilization. My neutral 1-day view would be invalidated if SOXL breaks above $125 on strong volume, which would signal renewed buying momentum and a potential short-term trend reversal. Conversely, if it breaks below $95, that would signal a continuation of the downtrend and potentially accelerate downside toward the $90 level. Additionally, if the pre-market strength (SOXL up over 3%) carries through the regular session and the ETF closes above $115, that would suggest bullish momentum is building and challenge the neutral stance.
(6) Why confidence is 40%: This is an extremely volatile 3x leveraged ETF with a 1-day forecast that is highly sensitive to intraday semiconductor sector moves, macro headlines, and retail flow dynamics. The conflicting signals - massive inflows ($7B) versus steep downtrend (-64% from peak), oversold technical conditions versus bearish macro backdrop, pre-market strength versus the ongoing downtrend - create a genuinely balanced balance of outcomes scenario. The 40% confidence reflects low conviction that any directional call will materialize, acknowledging that in a single day with no major catalyst, the ETF could easily swing either way by 10-15% due to its leverage structure and the ongoing battle between dip-buyers and institutional sellers. The elevated implied volatility (123-149%) further underscores the uncertainty. I am not confident enough to call a direction, hence NEUTRAL for the 1-day signal, with neutral readings on shorter timeframes where noise dominates.
Claude — Opus
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-02 12:12 UTC - 8:12 AM ET Wednesday - which falls inside the US pre-market, so I am reporting a pre-market print rather than a stale close. StockAnalysis.com shows SOXL pre-market at $101.03, down 4.61%, timed Sep 2, 2026, 7:03 AM EDT - roughly an hour before the baseline, and thin, as pre-market leveraged-ETF quotes always are. The prior official close, from the same source, was $105.91 on Sep 1, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, down $6.88 (-6.10%), on 64.0M shares with a day range of $102.31-$108.64 and a 52-week range of $23.80-$302.00. I flag the anchor choice explicitly because it matters: $101.03 is where the fund was actually marked at the window start, but the gap is fresh and could reprice at the 9:30 open. Underlying detail for Tuesday, from 24/7 Wall St. (Sept 1): SOXX -2% to $500.95, Intel -3% to $86.68, AMD -2% to $460.52, Nvidia -2% to $217.18, Broadcom -1% to $364.81 - consistent with SOXL's -6.10% at 3x. Macro at the baseline: TheStreet's Sept 2 pre-market piece puts the US 10-year at 4.814%, its highest since November 2023, inside a global bond selloff with UK, German, French and Japanese yields at multi-year or multi-decade highs; Yahoo Finance's Sept 2 live blog has the 30-year at 5.27%, Brent above $95 after Trump threatened to strike Iran "much harder," VIX at 16.77 (+2.63%), and futures at S&P -0.2%, Dow -0.1%, Nasdaq-100 -0.5%. The 24/7 Wall St. piece also references a reported Strait of Hormuz closure with crude above $91. The single most important calendar item: StockTitan's release confirms Broadcom reports Q3 fiscal 2026 after the close on Wednesday, September 2, with the call at 5:00 PM ET - which lands inside this window, since the window runs to 8:12 AM ET Thursday.
(2) Market regime: This is a rates event wearing a semiconductor costume, and it has now run for three sessions without resolving. The sequence is unambiguous: SOXL $111.34 Friday (-9.52%), $112.79 Monday (+1.30%), $105.91 Tuesday (-6.10%), $101.03 pre-market Wednesday. Monday's bounce has been fully erased and the $110.21/$110.33 shelf that was defended on Monday broke decisively - that shelf was the only structure on the recent chart, and it is gone. Volume confirms the character: 64.0M shares on Tuesday's decline against 34.0M on Monday's advance, so the down days are the ones with participation. The mechanism is exactly what 24/7 Wall St. described on Sept 1 - Intel and AMD, up 143% and 120% year-to-date, took the heaviest damage because "higher discount rates compress long-duration cash flow multiples faster than they change near-term earnings." Nothing about the semiconductor demand picture has deteriorated; Nvidia's Aug 26 guidance of $108B for the current quarter and 70% supply-constrained growth for fiscal 2028 (Kiplinger) still stands. What has changed is the denominator, and it is still moving: the 10-year has gone from 4.726% Friday to 4.76% Monday to 4.79% Tuesday to 4.814% Wednesday morning, with oil escalating alongside it - Brent from roughly $90 to above $95 in two sessions on a reported Hormuz closure. Both legs of the squeeze are tightening, not loosening, and a 3x daily-reset product compounds the damage: SOX was 21% below its 52-week high at Monday's close while SOXL was 63% below its own.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $101.03. Baseline one-day volatility for this product is roughly 7% given SOX realising 2.0-2.3% daily, but this window is not a normal day - it contains Broadcom's earnings, and Broadcom is one of the largest SOX constituents. Charles Schwab's account of June 5, 2026 shows what that can do: disappointing Broadcom guidance was a primary driver of an 8% single-day drop in the stock after a 12% loss the prior session, inside a 10% SOX decline. Adding an event of that scale to the ordinary daily distribution pushes the effective sigma toward 9-10%. The band is $89.00 to $112.00, or -11.9% down and +10.9% up. The mild downward tilt reflects the direction of the macro squeeze rather than any view on Broadcom's numbers. The upper bound deliberately clears Tuesday's $105.91 close and Tuesday's $108.64 high, since a bought gap plus a well-received Broadcom print is a coherent path there; the lower bound sits well beneath Tuesday's $102.31 low, which is the only nearby reference and is already below the current pre-market mark. I would rather state a band wide enough to be honest about an earnings event inside the window than a tight one that looks precise and is not.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Three, and they are unusually dense. First, Wednesday's data - ADP August private payrolls, factory and durable goods orders, and the Fed's Beige Book (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet). The asymmetry has partly inverted this week: after Tuesday's ISM showed new orders falling to 53.7 from 56.7 and JOLTS showed hiring easing, a soft ADP would start to undercut the September hike narrative and relieve the yield pressure doing the damage, while a hot one reinforces it. Second, Broadcom's Q3 report after the close with a 5:00 PM ET call, which falls inside this window and can move the whole complex overnight in either direction. Third, the Gulf - Trump has threatened harder strikes and the strait is reportedly closed, so crude headlines can arrive at any hour and feed straight back into the yield channel. Friday's August payrolls sits outside the window but shapes how much risk anyone wants to carry through Wednesday and Thursday.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest case against the bearish tilt is that the anchor already contains the bad news. SOXL would be down roughly 10% from Monday's close at the current pre-market mark, and gaps of that size in leveraged ETFs frequently fill partially during the session - pre-market prints are thin and overshoot. The demand story is genuinely intact, Broadcom's AI and custom-silicon business has been the strongest part of the sector's narrative, and a beat-and-raise there could reverse three days of damage overnight. A soft ADP does the same thing through a different door by pulling the 10-year back. And SOX entered this week still up nearly 63% year-to-date, so the annual trend is emphatically higher. What would invalidate my call: SOXL reclaiming Tuesday's $105.91 close during the session, which would say the gap was noise and the sellers are done; or the 10-year stabilising back below 4.75%, since that yield channel is the spine of everything I have argued. Conversely, a session close below $98 with volume above Tuesday's 64M would confirm that distribution is still running into the Broadcom print.
(6) Confidence: 48%, and I want to be precise about why it is not higher despite an unusually clear macro read. The regime diagnosis I hold with reasonable conviction: a global bond selloff to multi-decade highs, an escalating oil shock, and a Fed the market thinks may hike on Sept 16 is a coherent and still-tightening squeeze on the longest-duration equities. What I hold with much less conviction is this specific window. The instrument has already gapped nearly 5% before the window opened, so a good deal of the move I would be forecasting is spent; Wednesday's ADP is two-sided; and a top-weight constituent reports earnings inside the window, which is close to a coin flip that I have no informational edge on. I have therefore set 4h to NEUTRAL, since intraday gap-fill dynamics genuinely cut both ways, and kept the daily call at MILD BEARISH rather than BEARISH. On the two fields about me: the model identifier configured for this session is claude-opus-5, and I state that rather than guess a marketing name - the model actually serving this turn can differ, and I have no way to verify it from inside. The timestamp is accurate to within a few minutes: the date is confirmed as 2026-09-02 and my newest retrieved data is the 11:03 UTC pre-market print, but I do not have a precise wall clock, so read it as approximate rather than exact.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
Published automatically when this question settled, from shared research a member chose to make public. Content on ForecastNest Insights is for research, educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.