This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC, when IONQ closed at $37.79, down 3.8% from $39.27 when the forecast was made. It traded between $37.59 and $39.25 along the way (-4.3% to -0.1%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC (8/31/2026, 10:36:55 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC (9/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-01 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.38 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Grok found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $37.00–$41.50 | -5.8% to +5.7% | 68% | $39.27 | 52.3 | no call |
| Gemini — Pro | $37.80–$41.10 | -3.8% to +4.6% | 65% | $39.31 | 10.8 | wrong |
| Grok | $37.00–$43.50 | -7.6% to +8.7% | 40% | $40.03 | 15.9 | wrong |
| DeepSeek | $36.00–$44.00 | -8.4% to +11.9% | 50% | $39.31 | 31.6 | wrong |
| Claude — Opus | $36.00–$42.20 | -8.4% to +7.4% | 43% | $39.31 | 78.8 | right |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 3 | — | 1 | 2 · 2 right | — | 100% (2/2) |
| Grok | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Claude — Opus | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Gemini — Pro | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: The latest available after-hours quote at 11:08 p.m. EDT on August 31 was $39.27, which is after the requested 02:36 UTC September 1 timestamp. IONQ closed the regular August 31 session at about $39.31, up only 0.28%, after trading between $38.43 and $40.55. Investing.com reports the after-hours quote as $39.27, while ChartExchange records the regular close at $39.29. ([Investing.com Australia][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: The short-term structure remains weak despite Monday's stabilization. IONQ is roughly 8% below its 20-day average of $42.63, 8.6% below its 50-day average of $42.89, and 11.9% below its 200-day average of $44.48, according to the August 31 technical assessment from WallStreetBuys. The recent $40.55 intraday high therefore remains an important near-term recovery area, while $38.43 is the immediate recent low. ([WallStreetBuys][2])
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $37.00-$41.50 around the live $39.27 reference. The lower bound allows for a continuation of the recent decline and a break below Monday's $38.43 low; the upper bound allows a rebound through $40.55 toward the lower portion of the $42 area. I am using a relatively wide envelope because IONQ has recently produced daily ranges of several percent and remains substantially below its short- and medium-term moving averages. ([ChartExchange][3])
(4) Catalysts: IonQ's most recent fundamental update remains supportive: its August 5 results reported Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287% year over year, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $280-$290 million. IonQ also completed the SkyWater acquisition on July 31, creating a vertically integrated quantum platform. The next specifically identified company event in the latest official release is Quantum World Congress on September 23-25, so there is no major scheduled IonQ earnings catalyst inside this one-day window. ([IonQ][4])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is the company's exceptionally strong reported growth and improving strategic position in quantum computing, networking, sensing and security. A positive quantum-sector headline or broader risk-on reversal could quickly push IONQ back above $40.55 and toward the $42 area. The short-term bearish interpretation would be weakened if price decisively recovers the $42-$43 region, where the 20-day and 50-day averages currently sit. ([IonQ][4])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 68% because the live price, moving-average structure and recent price action collectively favor modest downside over the next session, while Monday's stabilization prevents a stronger bearish classification. Confidence is capped by IONQ's high volatility and the strong fundamental growth narrative. The 7-day signal is neutral because there is no major company catalyst immediately ahead, while the 30-day signal remains mildly bullish because the company's revenue growth, cash resources and vertically integrated platform provide a stronger medium-term fundamental backdrop. ([IonQ][4])
Gemini — Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from live market feeds and financial platforms confirms IONQ closed at $39.31 on Monday, August 31, 2026. The stock opened at $38.80, dipped to an intraday low of $38.43, and steadily recovered to close up slightly on volume of approximately 38.6 million shares.
(2) The current market regime is showing signs of short-term stabilization following a sharp drop at the end of last week. Monday's price action demonstrated intraday resilience, suggesting that the aggressive distribution seen on Friday may be temporarily exhausted as buyers step in to defend the high-$30s.
(3) The price range of $37.80-$41.10 accounts for the stock's recent daily volatility profile. The downside bound leaves room to retest Monday's structural lows around $38.43 with some technical slippage, while the upside target allows for a continuation of the relief bounce toward the $41.00 resistance area established late last week.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, the primary catalyst will be early September institutional reallocation flows and broader market beta. Macroeconomic data such as Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI print will likely set the tone for high-beta tech equities.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a near-term relief bounce is the prevailing technical downtrend. If Tuesday's macroeconomic data sparks a broader market sell-off, IONQ's high-beta characteristics could easily override Monday's stabilization, forcing a breakdown through support toward the mid-$30s.
(6) My confidence is 65%. While the intraday recovery on Monday points to near-term support, forecasting a 1-day directional move for a highly volatile, speculative asset on the first trading day of a new month remains vulnerable to sudden macro-driven volatility.
Grok
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Monday 31 Aug 2026 close approximately $40.03 (up ~2.1% from Friday’s $39.20), day range $38.43-$40.55, per StockAnalysis, Stocknear, EODData, StockScan and Robinhood quotes dated 31 Aug. Prior closes: 28 Aug $39.20 (down 7.7%), 27 Aug $42.46. 52-week range $25.89-$84.64. High beta (~3.3) and recent daily swings of $2-4+.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Speculative quantum-computing growth stock showing recovery after Friday’s sharp drop. Monday’s rebound occurred amid broader equity softness tied to geopolitical and rate-hike concerns. Sector remains event-driven with elevated volatility; company fundamentals include strong Q2 revenue growth and raised guidance, but valuation and losses keep price action sensitive to risk sentiment.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$40.03 Monday close. Recent true ranges and high beta support potential 1-day moves of 5-10%. Lower bound near $37 allows for extension of the Friday/Monday lows; upper bound near $43.50 covers a continuation of the rebound toward recent $42-$44 levels. Range is modestly wider on the downside given residual momentum from the prior selloff.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events or earnings for Tuesday 1 Sep. Broader market data (JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing) can influence risk appetite for high-beta names; next earnings estimated early November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Positive broader risk-on move or quantum-sector news could push IONQ above $43.50; weaker macro data or renewed selling pressure could drive a break below $37. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Single-day forecasts for high-volatility speculative names are noise-dominated; live Monday close is confirmed but absence of stock-specific catalysts and sensitivity to macro data keep conviction moderate.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from Yahoo Finance real-time data as of 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC (based on Aug 31 close and overnight trading): $39.31, up +0.11 (+0.28%) from the prior close of $39.20. The day's range on Aug 31 was $38.43-$40.55. eToro shows the same $39.20 close with a -7.68% one-day decline. The stock is down approximately -12.76% over the past week. 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64. Beta is elevated at 2.98-3.30. Analyst consensus is a Strong Buy with a projected level of $65.63-$67.68, with 44 of 52 analysts rating it a Buy.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: IonQ is in a post-earnings digestion phase following its record Q2 2026 results on Aug 5, where revenue surged 287% YoY to $80.1M. The company raised full-year guidance to $280-290M. However, the stock has since retraced sharply, with a 7.7% drop on Aug 28 as investors questioned the ~46x NTM revenue valuation and the $3B vertical integration strategy (SkyWater acquisition closed July 31). The stock currently sits below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a key resistance level at the Ichimoku Kijun line of $39.88. Short-term technicals show a bearish daily structure but Stoch RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting limited downside.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $44.00 - this sits above the Aug 31 high of $40.55 and approaches the Aug 21 high of $42.04 (from prior analysis). A break above the $39.88 resistance would signal renewed buying interest. Lower bound $36.00 - this is below the Aug 31 low of $38.43 and represents a ~8.4% decline from current levels, which is consistent with the stock's elevated beta (3.0) and recent daily volatility. The range is slightly asymmetric: more room above ($4.69) than below ($3.31), reflecting the mild bullish 1-day view given the oversold conditions and upcoming Investor Day catalyst on Sept 8.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday Sept 1 has no specific IonQ-dedicated catalysts. However, the broader quantum computing sector could be influenced by any macro tech news. The key near-term catalyst is IonQ's Investor Day on Sept 8 at the NYSE, where management will provide major updates. That event is outside the 1-day window but may generate anticipatory positioning. The next earnings date is estimated for Nov 4, 2026. No SEC filings or government contract announcements are due in the next 24 hours.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is that the stock's sharp decline from its 52-week high of $84.64 reflects genuine concerns about valuation (~46x NTM revenue) and heavy cash burn (negative ~$515M FCF forecast for 2026). If institutional selling resumes and the stock breaks below the Aug 31 low of $38.43, the mild bullish 1-day view would be invalidated, potentially sending the stock toward the $36.00 bound. Conversely, if the stock closes above $39.88 (the Kijun resistance), it would confirm buyer acceptance and support the bullish case.
(6) Why confidence is 50%: This is a 1-day forecast for a high-beta (3.0), volatile quantum computing stock with no immediate catalyst. The oversold technical condition (Stoch RSI oversold) provides a modest bullish tilt, but the stock remains below key moving averages with a bearish daily structure. The upcoming Investor Day on Sept 8 could create some early positioning, but that is a week away. The 50% confidence reflects the genuine balance: the stock could easily rebound on dip-buying given oversold conditions, or continue its downward drift given valuation concerns. I am not confident enough to call it BULLISH, hence MILD BULLISH for the 1-day signal, with neutral readings on shorter timeframes where noise dominates.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-01 02:36 UTC - 10:36 PM ET Monday - so Monday's session is complete and no IONQ trades between my data and the baseline. StockAnalysis.com quotes IONQ at $39.31 as of Aug 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, up $0.11 (+0.28%) from Friday's $39.20, on 38.7M shares, with a day range of $38.43-$40.55, a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64 and a market cap of $15.62B; the 7:59 PM EDT after-hours print was $39.38 (+0.18%). The volume figure is the striking one: 38.7M against a 20-day average of 19.4M, so roughly double, on a day the stock finished flat. From the same source's statistics page: 50-day moving average $42.54, 200-day $44.40, RSI 44.75, beta 3.30, short interest 42.36M shares (10.74% of float, 1.99 days to cover), 397.3M shares outstanding (+49.98% YoY). Peers stabilised alongside it - Rigetti closed $15.66 (+0.45%) and D-Wave $17.20 (+1.24%), both per StockAnalysis.com quotes timed Aug 31, 4:00 PM EDT - so this was a basket floor attempt, with IONQ the mildest of the three. Macro backdrop for the same session: The Motley Fool's Aug 31 wrap has the S&P 500 at 7,686.14 (-0.33%), Dow 53,186 (-0.70%), Nasdaq 26,371 (-0.12%) and the 10-year at 4.76%; Investing.com puts Brent at $90.31 (+4.74%) after the US strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island, and reports September rate-*hike* odds for the Sept 16 FOMC jumping from roughly 35% to about 60% after Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, with Yahoo Finance framing the same shift as 40% to 62%. Tuesday's calendar, per Investing.com: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (consensus 53.2, prior 53.2), ISM Manufacturing (consensus 55.2, prior 55.6), JOLTS (consensus 7.330M, prior 7.359M), construction spending and Fed Vice Chair remarks. Company fundamentals are unchanged since Aug 7, when IonQ reported Q2 revenue of $80.05M (+287% YoY), raised FY2026 guidance to $280-290M, and disclosed $2.96B in cash against adjusted EBITDA of -$120.3M, with the $1.8B SkyWater acquisition closing July 31 (Quantum Computing Report, IonQ IR). I call this live with the caveat stated plainly: my newest print is the 7:59 PM EDT after-hours quote, roughly two and a half hours before the baseline.
(2) Market regime: Two forces are pulling against each other and Monday resolved to a draw. The hostile one is monetary. A market repricing from a cut toward a 25bp *hike* on Sept 16 is the single worst backdrop for this specific profile - no earnings, adjusted EBITDA of -$120M a quarter, a $15.6B market cap on roughly $285M of guided revenue, and a valuation that a Motley Fool piece dated Aug 24 puts at 59 times sales. All of that value sits in years far out on the curve, so a 4.76% 10-year discounts it harder than almost anything else listed. This is the same mechanism Trefis described on Aug 27 in explaining IONQ's 42.9% fall from ~$70.14 in late May to ~$40, and that 24/7 Wall St. documented on Aug 18 and Aug 24 as a correlated basket unwinding on rates rather than on any company's results. The supportive one is what the tape actually did on Monday. IONQ traded below Friday's $38.64 low, printed $38.43, reversed to $40.55, and closed green - on double its average volume. High volume, a wide range, a broken prior low reclaimed, and a flat-to-positive close is an absorption bar: the sellers who were in control Friday found a bid. That it happened across the whole basket rather than in one name makes it more credible, not less. The qualifier is that IONQ finished in the lower half of its range and could not hold $40.55, and it was the weakest of the three peers, so the buyers who showed up were defensive rather than aggressive. Positioning offers no help in either direction: short interest is falling (42.36M from 47.05M a month earlier) at under two days to cover, so there is neither squeeze fuel nor a crowded short to punish, and the Aug 24 Motley Fool piece notes $457.2M of net insider selling at IonQ over three years against $3.32M of buying, which is a slow structural weight rather than a Tuesday input.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $39.31, and placed close to symmetrically on purpose, because I am declaring no directional view for the session. With a beta of 3.30 and recent realised days of -7.68%, -7.48% and around -6%, the one-day sigma here is roughly 5-6%; Monday's range was 5.4% of the close and Friday's 8.4%. The band is $36.00 to $42.20, or -8.4% down and +7.4% up. The small residual downward tilt reflects the macro headwind rather than any read on Tuesday's tape. The upper bound sits just under the 50-day average at $42.54, which is the first genuine overhead reference and a level the stock has not touched since the sell-off; Monday's $40.55 high is the nearer one. The lower bound sits below the twin lows at $38.43 and $38.64, which are now the defended shelf - beneath them there is little structure until the mid-$36s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Nothing company-specific is scheduled. Q2 was reported Aug 7, the SkyWater close is done, and the next earnings event is not due until early November, so no IonQ filing or release falls inside this window. What does fall inside it is Tuesday's data: ISM Manufacturing at 55.2 consensus versus 55.6 prior, JOLTS at 7.330M versus 7.359M, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, construction spending and Fed Vice Chair remarks, all mid-morning per Investing.com. The asymmetry is unusual and worth naming - with hike odds near 60%, a strong ISM now validates the tightening and hits the longest-duration equities hardest, while a soft print loosens the hike narrative and helps them most. IONQ sits at the extreme end of that duration spectrum, so it will amplify whichever way the print lands, in both directions. Beyond the calendar, this is a headline-driven basket that has moved 6-10% on sector sentiment repeatedly this month, and Sept 1 is the first day of a month with poor historical seasonality.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: Because I am NEUTRAL on the day, both sides deserve stating. Against a bullish read: Monday's rally failed at $40.55 and gave back most of it, the stock remains below both the 50-day and 200-day averages with RSI at 44.75 rather than washed out, the rate repricing that caused Friday's 7.68% drop is still intensifying rather than easing, oil is higher, and IONQ was the laggard of its own peer group on a day the group tried to bottom. Against a bearish read: the absorption bar on double volume is the most recent and most direct evidence about who is transacting, the entire basket closed green, the after-hours print held, and the operating business is not deteriorating at all - 287% revenue growth, raised guidance and $2.96B of cash mean the headline Q2 loss was a warrant revaluation artefact rather than cash burn. What resolves it: a reclaim of $40.55 and then the $42.54 50-day would say Friday was a rates flush that has been absorbed and would make my 7-day tilt wrong; a break of $38.43 on volume above Monday's 38.7M would say the absorption failed and would have justified a bearish daily call I chose not to make.
(6) Confidence: 43%. I have set the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily signals to NEUTRAL because the evidence genuinely conflicts and I would rather abstain than manufacture a direction that a 3.3-beta name will amplify either way. The macro case is real but slow-moving; the tape case is real but was produced by a single session; and Tuesday's decisive input is a data print whose outcome I cannot forecast and whose sign flips the equity response. The number is a touch below what I would assign to a sector ETF in the same position, because a single name carries idiosyncratic headline risk - an announcement, an analyst action, a partnership - that an index diversifies away, and because this particular name has repeatedly moved 6-10% on nothing more than basket sentiment. The MILD BEARISH calls at 7 and 30 days rest on different ground: the run-in to a live Sept 16 hike decision, Friday's payrolls report, September seasonality, and the simple fact that a company valued at 59 times sales with negative EBITDA is the most rate-sensitive thing on the board while rates are being repriced upward. My confidence in the range is meaningfully higher than in any signal - a band of roughly -8.4% to +7.4% should contain a normal session for this stock, though it would not contain a fresh sector-wide shock.
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