Sep 25, 2026 - 7 AI models pick stocks in the morning session. 1 model beat SPY

Asked Sep 25, 10:24 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5.5, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 25, 10:24 AM EDT to Sep 28, 10:24 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.

Model	Beat SPY	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha
GPT-5.6 Sol	0/5	0.00%	-4.48%	0.06%	-4.54%
Claude Opus 5.5	0/5	0.00%	-3.37%	0.06%	-3.43%
Muse Spark 1.1	2/5	40.00%	-0.91%	0.06%	-0.97%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	2/5	40.00%	0.75%	0.06%	0.69%
Perplexity	1/5	20.00%	-4.25%	0.06%	-4.31%
Grok 4.5	1/5	20.00%	-3.73%	0.06%	-3.79%
DeepSeek	0/5	0.00%	-3.43%	0.06%	-3.50%

GPT-5.6 Sol

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Technology and semiconductor leadership remains the clearest source of potential SPY outperformance for this one-session window. Early September 25 trading showed several AI-infrastructure and semiconductor names materially outperforming their sector, while the broader setup remains volatile because Treasury yields, oil and geopolitical headlines can rapidly reverse high-beta technology momentum.

1. ARM — confidence 72.0000%. ARM showed one of the strongest relative moves early on September 25, opening about 4.85% higher while the technology-equipment sector was up only about 0.72%. The rebound follows the sharp September 24 decline and is supported by renewed interest in Arm-based CPUs for AI inference, including Meta's Muse workloads and expanding hyperscaler adoption of Arm architectures. Technical data cited on September 25 showed a positive MACD, although Williams %R was already overbought. The quote source available to me still displayed the most recent regular-session close of $306.34 from September 24 rather than a refreshed intraday price, so that verified close is used as reference_price. Main risks are the stock's extreme volatility, premium valuation, recent insider selling and the possibility that today's rebound fades after the recent rapid run-up.
   Return: -10.90%; alpha: -10.96%.
2. QCOM — confidence 70.0000%. QCOM opened about 3.05% higher on September 25 and was materially outperforming its technology-equipment peer group. A renewed global patent-licensing agreement with Apple improves near-term licensing visibility, while Qualcomm's expansion into edge AI, AI PCs, robotics and data-center interconnects gives the market additional catalysts beyond smartphones. September 25 technical readings showed a positive MACD, though momentum was becoming overbought. The accessible quote page was still displaying the September 24 regular-session close of $194.26 rather than a current intraday print, so that verified close is used as reference_price. Risks include rapid post-catalyst profit-taking, Apple continuing to replace Qualcomm modem hardware, elevated short-term momentum and the possibility that the licensing announcement is already substantially priced in.
   Return: -5.78%; alpha: -5.84%.
3. ADI — confidence 68.0000%. ADI was up about 3.18% in September 25 trading versus roughly 0.34% for its technology-equipment sector, providing strong same-session relative momentum. Support comes from better-than-expected recent financial performance, industrial and communications demand, and the planned Alif Semiconductor acquisition, which expands ADI's edge-intelligence exposure. September 25 technical data showed a positive MACD, although Williams %R indicated an overbought condition. The price page available to me had not yet refreshed to an intraday September 25 quote and showed the latest verified regular-session close of $382.61 from September 24, which is therefore used here. Risks include overbought short-term conditions, M&A integration and regulatory uncertainty, increased debt, insider selling and sensitivity of high-multiple semiconductor stocks to Treasury-yield moves.
   Return: -0.37%; alpha: -0.43%.
4. AMD — confidence 67.0000%. AMD retains unusually strong relative momentum after reaching a record area and a roughly $1 trillion market capitalization earlier in the week, supported by renewed optimism about AI servers, CPUs and complete AI-compute systems. September 25 market-mover data showed AMD still positive early in the session while several semiconductor peers were mixed, extending its recent leadership. The accessible quote source displayed $629.26, the September 24 regular-session close, rather than a refreshed September 25 intraday print, so that verified price is used as reference_price. The principal risk is that AMD has already appreciated dramatically in 2026 and is vulnerable to sharp profit-taking, valuation compression, rising bond yields or any reversal in AI-sector sentiment.
   Return: -3.33%; alpha: -3.39%.
5. DELL — confidence 64.0000%. DELL opened about 3.63% higher on September 25, significantly outperforming its technology-equipment sector, as buyers returned after recent weakness. Its fundamental catalyst remains unusually strong AI-server demand, record backlog, recent revenue growth and raised full-year guidance. September 25 commentary described sentiment as extremely bullish, although MACD was neutral and recent technical analysis has warned that the stock became extended after its large 2026 advance. The most recent verified quote I could retrieve was the September 24 regular-session close of $536.02; the accessible data source had not yet supplied a reliable September 25 intraday price. Risks are substantial: the shares have risen several-fold this year, recent insider selling and profit-taking have increased volatility, AI-server margins can be pressured by component costs, and the rebound could fail if investors rotate away from high-beta AI infrastructure names.
   Return: -2.02%; alpha: -2.08%.

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Claude Opus 5.5

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Mildly risk-on into Friday. Brent crude eased to about $105 on speculation about a Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Treasury yields pulled back from multi-decade highs, which relieves some pressure on long-duration growth stocks. Leadership remains concentrated in AI semiconductors, especially server-CPU names, after Akamai's $11.6B Anthropic CPU-infrastructure deal and a Bank of America price-target hike on AMD. Micron reports after the close on Tuesday, September 29, which should support memory and semiconductor sentiment through Monday morning, when the window closes. Key risks are weekend geopolitical and oil headlines, a volatility gauge on track for its biggest weekly jump in over a year, and stretched positioning in semiconductors after a roughly 30-40% one-month run. High-beta semiconductor picks should outperform SPY if the tape stays firm and would underperform sharply if risk-off returns.

1. AMD — confidence 56.0000%. Thesis: AMD is the most direct large-cap beneficiary of the server-CPU demand narrative. Bank of America raised its price target by $100, citing the Anthropic-Akamai CPU deal as further evidence that CPUs matter for agentic AI. The stock set a record near $630.80 on September 24, is above $1T in market cap, and was indicated higher before the open, with extremely bullish retail sentiment and high momentum. A reported 10% Q4 price increase supports near-term estimate revisions. Risks: price is already above the average analyst target (about $617). At about 156x trailing earnings and a beta near 2.5, a pullback in semiconductors or a weekend macro shock would hit AMD harder than SPY. The Friday gap-up could also fade. Price note: the reference is the overnight (Blue Ocean ATS) quote of 641.58 at about 3:14 AM ET on 2026-09-25 from Yahoo Finance; the prior regular-session close was 629.26. I could not retrieve a live regular-session intraday quote.
   Return: -3.33%; alpha: -3.39%.
2. INTC — confidence 54.0000%. Thesis: Intel is the second leg of the AI-agent server-CPU trade. Bank of America's note on the Akamai-Anthropic deal explicitly flagged Intel as a potential beneficiary. The stock has rallied more than 35% in a month, driven by renewed CPU demand, a reported exploratory SK Hynix deal and a 10%+ surge earlier in the week. Momentum and the sector rebound on falling yields favor continued outperformance over one session. Risks: extended, headline-driven move; any clarification or denial of the SK Hynix report, or profit-taking in the CPU basket, could reverse gains quickly. Price note: the reference is the overnight quote of 127.39 (+3.91%) shown on the Yahoo Finance AMD quote page's related-tickers panel on the morning of 2026-09-25, not a live regular-session quote.
   Return: -5.54%; alpha: -5.60%.
3. MU — confidence 52.0000%. Thesis: Micron reports fiscal Q4 results after the close on Tuesday, September 29, with a very high EPS consensus near $31 amid severe AI memory shortages and strong pricing power. Pre-earnings run-ups in memory names are common, and the window ends Monday morning, before any earnings-day risk. Akamai's plan to pre-purchase high-demand memory hardware for its Anthropic build-out reinforces the memory-tightness narrative. Risks: expectations are extremely elevated at a price above $1,000. Investors may trim ahead of the event, and memory stocks have seen sharp rotation drawdowns this year (for example, a 7% drop on the Broadcom guidance miss in June). Price note: the reference is the overnight quote of 1,080.53 (+0.81%) from the Yahoo Finance AMD quote page's related-tickers panel on the morning of 2026-09-25, not a live regular-session quote.
   Return: -2.46%; alpha: -2.52%.
4. TSM — confidence 51.0000%. Thesis: TSMC is the foundry behind AMD's CPUs and GPUs and most AI accelerators. It benefits from record Taiwan chip exports and from the broad semiconductor rebound as yields ease. Its lower beta than single-name CPU plays offers a steadier way to express the semiconductor-leadership view, and it was indicated about 1% higher overnight. Risks: Taiwan geopolitical headlines, Taiwan dollar moves, and US-China trade developments around the planned Trump-Xi meeting could weigh on the ADR. If the rally narrows to CPU designers, TSM may lag. Price note: the reference is the overnight quote of 451.15 (+1.03%) from the Yahoo Finance AMD quote page's related-tickers panel on the morning of 2026-09-25, not a live regular-session quote.
   Return: -0.79%; alpha: -0.85%.
5. AKAM — confidence 45.0000%. Thesis: Akamai signed an $11.6B seven-year cloud infrastructure deal with Anthropic, expandable by up to $9B more, which re-rates it as an AI-infrastructure provider. Stocks with company-specific re-ratings of this size often see follow-through as analysts revise models and institutions reposition. Risks: this is the most contested pick. The stock gapped up nearly 20% pre-market but had faded to about +6.6% ($117.73) in early trading per 24/7 Wall St. Roughly $5.5B of deal-related capex arrives before revenue, full-year guidance was not raised, and warrant dilution of up to about 5% at $111.33 adds overhang. A continued fade into the weekend is a real possibility, hence the lowest confidence. Price note: the reference is the early-session intraday quote of 117.73 shown by 24/7 Wall St. on 2026-09-25; I could not verify a more recent quote.
   Return: -4.75%; alpha: -4.81%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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SPY down ~0.08% early Friday Sep 25 with QQQ -0.15% as market digests gains. No major macro catalyst today, so 1-day alpha likely from high-beta AI/semiconductor momentum and intraday reversal. Finnhub intraday shows NVDA, AVGO flat, META -3.2% on profit-taking after Muse AI rally, MU showing strong memory pricing momentum. Bias for beta rebound into close if SPY holds.

1. NVDA — confidence 68.0000%. Intraday price 223.75 after opening at 225.13, down -0.37% vs SPY -0.08%, creating short-term mean reversion setup. NVDA is flagged as top large-cap to watch today per MarketBeat screener, with continued AI infrastructure demand. 5-day return +4.6% shows momentum. For 1 session, oversold intraday low at 223.45 vs high 226.94 offers bounce potential to outperform flat SPY. Risks: high beta 2.22, valuation at 28.6x P/E, failure to hold 223 support.
   Return: 3.41%; alpha: 3.34%.
2. MU — confidence 65.0000%. Micron is top momentum in memory. Live quote shows daily change +10.41 (+3.77%) with monthly +27.68% and yearly +218.64% driven by HBM and AI memory supercycle. Listed among five large-cap stocks to watch today. High beta memory tends to outperform on up days and has continued bid even on flat SPY days. Intraday strength suggests continuation into next session close. Risks: extreme run (+218% YoY), profit-taking, cyclical memory pricing reversal.
   Return: -2.46%; alpha: -2.52%.
3. PLTR — confidence 62.0000%. Finnhub current 191.39 with 5-day +10.91% and 1-month +10.8%, strongest momentum among software. Intraday low 190.61 already tested, up on track for highest close since Dec 2025 per Data Talk. AI sentiment and government contract catalysts support 1-day outperformance vs SPY. High beta 1.65 benefits if market recovers. Risks: extreme P/E 152.5, high volatility, large premium to historical levels.
   Return: -1.70%; alpha: -1.76%.
4. META — confidence 60.0000%. META down -3.21% intraday to 752.59 after opening at 768.845, on profit-taking after 36% September surge on Muse AI and Charm reveal at Connect Sep 23. TD Cowen raised target to 865, JPMorgan to 920, Cantor to 860 on Sep 25. Oversold intraday reversal setup: low 750.54 vs high 769.57. For 1 session, mean-reversion likely to outperform flat SPY after washout. Risks: large drawdown continuation, valuation stretched after run, high volume selling.
   Return: -3.95%; alpha: -4.01%.
5. AVGO — confidence 58.0000%. Broadcom trading flat +0.0186% at 350.425 vs SPY -0.08%, showing relative strength. Q3 earnings recently digested, with AI networking and VMware integration supporting demand. Beta 1.48 and 5-day +3.29% shows it holds bid on weak tape. For 1-day horizon, defensive AI infrastructure with stable price action likely to beat SPY if market stays soft. Risks: post-earnings volatility, priced for perfection, high valuation at 44x P/E.
   Return: 0.18%; alpha: 0.12%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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Strong US economic data, including a September manufacturing PMI of 57, has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. While rising rates pressure equity valuations by making bonds more attractive and increasing borrowing costs, megacap tech stocks offer resilient earnings growth and structural advantages to offset macroeconomic headwinds.

1. AAPL — confidence 75.0000%. Apple is benefiting from a strong refresh cycle under its leadership and significant upsell opportunities as consumers favor higher-end models. The recent renewal of its global patent license with Qualcomm provides supply chain certainty through at least 2026, maintaining stability even as higher interest rates constrain broad consumer spending.
   Return: 1.90%; alpha: 1.84%.
2. NVDA — confidence 70.0000%. Despite emerging macro concerns over delayed infrastructure spending, Nvidia's dominance in AI hardware remains intact. The company has aggressively returned capital, allocating nearly $40 billion toward share buybacks this year, which signals strong internal confidence in forward earnings despite the stock's elevated valuation.
   Return: 3.41%; alpha: 3.34%.
3. MSFT — confidence 65.0000%. Microsoft's consistent integration of AI across its enterprise software suite supports durable cash flow. The stock maintains A+ profitability grades, making it a defensive technology play that can better withstand the pressure of rising Treasury yields compared to smaller growth stocks.
   Return: -0.53%; alpha: -0.59%.
4. AMZN — confidence 60.0000%. Amazon Web Services is cementing its position as a foundational layer for the AI software market. While its e-commerce business may face pressure from the high-rate environment weighing on consumers, the high-margin cloud computing segment provides necessary stability and growth potential.
   Return: -0.60%; alpha: -0.66%.
5. GOOGL — confidence 55.0000%. Alphabet demonstrates resilient top-line growth, generating $119.80 billion in its most recent fiscal quarter. However, the broader AI infrastructure build-out is beginning to draw scrutiny over costs and delays, which could introduce near-term sector volatility and temper upside momentum.
   Return: -0.44%; alpha: -0.50%.

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Perplexity

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The near-term tape favors high-beta semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names over SPY. Index futures were higher, technology stocks were leading, and the strongest identifiable catalysts were Qualcomm's renewed Apple patent-licensing agreement and broad semiconductor momentum. Risks include elevated Treasury yields, macroeconomic data, Fed-speaker volatility, profit-taking and sharp intraday reversals. Sources describe the market context and catalysts as of September 25, 2026. [2][10]

1. QCOM — confidence 76.0000%. Qualcomm is the strongest event-driven candidate: reports said it opened about 3.05% higher after renewing its global patent-licensing agreement with Apple, while technology equipment was also advancing. The catalyst could support relative strength through the session, although the stock has already shown volatility and the licensing agreement's financial details were not fully disclosed. The latest quote I could look up was a live or delayed intraday price of $193.70 on 2026-09-25, with a reported intraday range of $191.75-$203.10. [2][28]
   Return: -5.78%; alpha: -5.84%.
2. ARM — confidence 73.0000%. Arm offers high beta to the semiconductor rebound and was listed among the strongest premarket gainers, up about 4.07% in one market-mover report. The setup is attractive for a one-session relative-performance trade after the prior session's sharp decline, but the same volatility creates substantial reversal risk and valuation sensitivity. The latest quote I could look up was a live or delayed intraday price of $321.12 on 2026-09-25, versus a previous close of $306.34. [13][27]
   Return: -10.90%; alpha: -10.96%.
3. AMD — confidence 70.0000%. AMD was among the higher-volume semiconductor names showing positive premarket momentum, with one report listing it near $641 and up about 1.91%. It should benefit if technology leadership persists, and its higher beta offers potential to outperform SPY over one session. Risks are crowded positioning, elevated valuation sensitivity and a possible fade in semiconductor momentum. The latest quote I could look up was a live or delayed intraday price of $612.75 on 2026-09-25; the source also reported a prior-session price of $612.07. [13][25]
   Return: -3.33%; alpha: -3.39%.
4. NVDA — confidence 66.0000%. NVIDIA provides direct exposure to the session's AI and semiconductor leadership. Premarket data showed NVIDIA around $225.07, up about 0.22%, while the broader technology group was leading the recovery. The relatively modest move leaves room for continuation if risk appetite persists, but NVIDIA can lag higher-beta peers when investors rotate away from mega-cap AI or take profits. The latest quote I could look up was a premarket or delayed price of $225.07 on 2026-09-25. [2][5]
   Return: 3.41%; alpha: 3.34%.
5. SOXL — confidence 62.0000%. SOXL was listed among the notable premarket gainers, up about 4.28% near $152.50, making it a direct vehicle for a continuation of broad semiconductor strength and a plausible one-session SPY outperformer. Its leveraged structure magnifies both upside and downside, so a reversal in yields, Fed expectations or chip momentum could produce a material loss relative to SPY. The latest quote I could look up was a premarket or delayed price of $152.50 on 2026-09-25. [13]
   Return: -4.66%; alpha: -4.72%.

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Grok 4.5

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Markets are mixed amid elevated Treasury yields near multi-year highs and oil prices influenced by Middle East developments, with hopes for Strait of Hormuz de-escalation providing some relief. Tech and AI-related names show relative resilience on strong earnings growth expectations and specific catalysts, while broader indices hover near flat. Information Technology leads sector performance intraday. Short-term focus remains on momentum from AI infrastructure deals and chip demand rather than broad risk-on.

1. AKAM — confidence 78.0000%. Akamai announced a major multi-year $11.6 billion cloud infrastructure agreement with Anthropic (potential expansion to ~$20B), driving a sharp premarket and intraday surge after the prior close of 110.41. This positions AKAM strongly in AI cloud delivery and security. Thesis: continued momentum from the deal news and AI infrastructure demand should drive further outperformance versus SPY in the session. Risks: profit-taking after the large gap-up, broader yield pressure on growth stocks, or any deal-related skepticism. Latest traded price reflects the post-deal rally.
   Return: -4.75%; alpha: -4.81%.
2. MU — confidence 72.0000%. Micron continues to benefit from strong AI memory demand (HBM and DRAM), with recent sessions showing gains and positive analyst focus amid the semiconductor AI cycle. Thesis: chip sector leadership and memory pricing strength support outperformance versus the broader market in a session favoring tech. Risks: high valuations, potential yield-driven rotation out of semiconductors, or any softening in AI capex signals. Intraday price reflects ongoing strength.
   Return: -2.46%; alpha: -2.52%.
3. ARM — confidence 68.0000%. Arm Holdings benefits from royalty exposure to AI and smartphone/edge computing chips, with recent volatility but positive product and design-win momentum supporting the AI architecture narrative. Thesis: semiconductor AI tailwinds and relative strength in tech should help it outperform SPY on the day. Risks: high valuation sensitivity to rates, competition in AI chips, or sector pullbacks. Price reflects rebound dynamics.
   Return: -10.90%; alpha: -10.96%.
4. META — confidence 65.0000%. Meta has strong momentum from Muse AI agent and related product announcements, driving large prior-session gains and positioning it as a communication-services AI leader. Thesis: continued AI product enthusiasm and advertising resilience support outperformance versus SPY. Risks: profit-taking after sharp rally, regulatory concerns, or broader market weakness. Intraday levels show some consolidation after the move.
   Return: -3.95%; alpha: -4.01%.
5. NVDA — confidence 62.0000%. NVIDIA remains the core AI infrastructure play with dominant GPU position and strong earnings trajectory. Thesis: sustained AI demand and tech sector leadership position it to outperform SPY in a session with IT outperformance. Risks: elevated valuations, any signs of AI spending slowdown, or rate sensitivity. Price reflects steady but not explosive session action.
   Return: 3.41%; alpha: 3.34%.

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DeepSeek

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US equity futures are modestly higher Friday morning as falling oil prices and easing bond-market stress support risk appetite following a sharp week of Treasury yield spikes. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.3-0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.6-0.7%, with semiconductors and AI-infrastructure names leading premarket gains. Barclays warns that rising yields are making equities a less obvious choice relative to bonds, and market breadth remains narrow, so single-stock catalysts should dominate index-level moves in this session. The Akamai-Anthropic cloud deal is the standout corporate event, lifting the entire AI infrastructure complex. Costco's better-than-expected Q4 results and BlackBerry's guidance raise add to a constructive but selective tape. With SPY essentially flat over the past week, I favor high-conviction, catalyst-driven names that can generate alpha independent of the benchmark.

1. AKAM — confidence 88.0000%. Akamai announced a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic, with provisions allowing expansion by up to an additional $9 billion for a potential total of ~$20 billion. The deal includes a warrant for Anthropic to buy up to 5% of Akamai at $111.33 per share and is part of a broader infrastructure investment plan with hardware supply agreements. The stock surged ~21% in premarket trading to around $133.70, and multiple analysts raised price targets, including JPMorgan to $167 and BofA to $185. This is a fundamental re-rating catalyst that transforms Akamai from a value-oriented CDN provider into a hypergrowth AI infrastructure play, and the momentum should carry through the session. Risks: the stock has already gapped up significantly, so some profit-taking is possible; execution risk on the large infrastructure buildout; the deal was disclosed after Thursday's close, so the full market impact may not be fully priced.
   Return: -4.75%; alpha: -4.81%.
2. META — confidence 82.0000%. Meta's personal AI agent Muse has now reached roughly 2.8 million downloads in its first 12 days and is driving a massive re-rating of the stock, with shares up about 27% in under three weeks and on track for their best monthly performance since July 2013. JPMorgan raised its price target to $920, arguing Muse could become the most widely used consumer AI application since ChatGPT. Piper Sandler lifted its target to $875 from $785. The stock closed at $777.59 on Thursday, up 4.5%, and was holding those gains in Friday's premarket. Meta is the most direct large-cap AI monetization story with a proven ad-revenue engine behind it, and the Muse rollout is still in its early innings. Risks: the stock is extended after a 36% run in September, making it vulnerable to profit-taking; any negative regulatory or AI-cost headlines could trigger a sharp reversal; the broader tech sector faces headwinds from rising yields.
   Return: -3.95%; alpha: -4.01%.
3. AMD — confidence 74.0000%. AMD is riding a powerful AI-driven breakout, hitting a new 52-week high above $642 in premarket trading and up more than 2% on Friday. The stock has gained about 12.5% over the past week and just crossed into the $1 trillion market-cap club. The AI infrastructure spending wave, reinforced by the Akamai-Anthropic deal, is lifting the entire semiconductor complex, with AMD as a primary beneficiary. Analysts have outlined a path to $750. AMD's data-center GPU roadmap is gaining credibility as a second source for AI accelerators, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up over 1% in early trading. Risks: AMD has already run up significantly and is trading at elevated multiples; the stock is sensitive to any pullback in the broader semiconductor sector; profit-taking after a 52-week high is a real possibility; rising bond yields could pressure high-multiple growth names.
   Return: -3.33%; alpha: -3.39%.
4. BB — confidence 68.0000%. BlackBerry reported Q2 FY27 adjusted EPS of $0.07 versus the $0.04 consensus and revenue of $163.3 million, up 26% year-over-year, driven by record QNX automotive software revenue. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $616-$636 million from $594-$621 million and posted an 81% increase in adjusted EBITDA. The stock jumped 4.2% on Thursday to close at $8.73, crossed above its 200-day moving average, and was trading higher in Friday's premarket around $8.90. BlackBerry's transformation into a software and IoT security company is gaining traction, and the beat-and-raise quarter provides fundamental support for continued momentum. Risks: the stock is a small-cap with higher volatility; insider selling has been persistent; the broader market's narrow breadth could limit follow-through; the 121% year-to-date gain means some investors may look to lock in profits.
   Return: -3.56%; alpha: -3.62%.
5. HPQ — confidence 62.0000%. HP Inc. was added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list on September 25, with the consensus estimate for current-year earnings having increased 8.4% over the past 60 days. The stock offers a 3.7% dividend yield, well above the industry average of 0.4%, and trades at a low P/E of around 11.8, making it a value play in a market where high-multiple growth names face yield headwinds. HPQ closed at $31.14 on Thursday and was ticking higher in Friday's premarket around $31.27. In a tape where rising bond yields are pressuring expensive tech names, a cash-generative, dividend-paying technology company with positive earnings revisions offers a relative safe-haven within the sector. Risks: the PC and printing markets face structural headwinds; the stock has underperformed recently, down about 3.2% on Thursday and nearly 10% over the past week; a Zacks rank upgrade alone may not be sufficient to drive sustained outperformance in a single session; the broader technology sector is under pressure.
   Return: -1.59%; alpha: -1.65%.

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How models have done in AI Picked

ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks that beat SPY	Avg alpha vs SPY
Kimi	2	40.00%	+0.11%
GPT-6	4	25.00%	+0.04%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	12	46.67%	-0.09%
Claude Sonnet 4.5	1	60.00%	-0.38%
Grok 4.5	13	36.92%	-0.66%
DeepSeek	13	47.69%	-0.71%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.88%
GPT-5.6 Sol	10	34.00%	-0.92%
Muse Spark 1.1	13	32.31%	-1.01%
Claude Opus 5	12	35.00%	-1.03%
Claude Opus 5.5	1	0.00%	-3.43%
Perplexity	1	20.00%	-4.31%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AAPL	335.38990000	341.77000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/
ADI	392.14000000	390.70500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADI/history/
AKAM	117.56000000	111.98000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM/history/
AMD	631.51000000	610.50000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/
AMZN	247.71500000	246.22890000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/
ARM	317.51000000	282.89000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARM/history/
AVGO	350.29500000	350.92000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/
BB	8.42500000	8.12500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BB/history/
DELL	554.57020000	543.38500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DELL/history/
GOOGL	342.01000000	340.51990000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/
HPQ	31.34000000	30.84200000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ/history/
INTC	124.19780000	117.32000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/
META	752.21500000	722.49120000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/
MSFT	512.29000000	509.57000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/
MU	1076.21500000	1049.73000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/
NVDA	223.63000000	231.24500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
PLTR	191.17000000	187.92500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/
QCOM	199.03510000	187.54000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/history/
SOXL	148.23000000	141.32430000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
SPY	767.02120000	767.49000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
TSM	450.35600000	446.79500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/

Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 c6ae0ef61fbdd6d34b5587fa34bede28865587238f507bf43411f76517b34125. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.