Oct 28, 2026 - 6 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 2 models beat SPY over the window

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Asked Oct 28, 10:42 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 3.6 Flash High, Perplexity, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 28, 10:42 AM EDT to Oct 29, 10:42 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYAlpha vs SPY
GPT-61/520.00%0.19%-0.16%0.35%
Muse Spark 1.10/50.00%-9.93%-0.16%-9.77%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High2/540.00%-2.43%-0.16%-2.26%
Perplexity0/50.00%-5.86%-0.16%-5.69%
Claude Sonnet 5.54/580.00%5.13%-0.16%5.30%
DeepSeek3/560.00%-1.26%-0.16%-1.09%

GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

Event-driven volatility is likely to dominate the October 28–29 window. The Federal Reserve's scheduled October 28 policy announcement at 14:00 EDT creates an important macro risk, with investors expecting rates to remain unchanged but watching closely for signals of further tightening. Alphabet, Microsoft, ServiceNow, and Chipotle have officially scheduled earnings announcements after today's close, making their next-morning regular-session reactions particularly important. Vertiv has already reported exceptional growth, producing a substantial positive opening gap that introduces both fundamental continuation potential and profit-taking risk. The forecast favors Alphabet's potential cloud-driven recovery and Microsoft's cloud resilience, while anticipating vulnerability in ServiceNow's valuation, Chipotle's operating outlook, and Vertiv's already-extended earnings reaction. These are probabilistic directional forecasts, not observed future results. The authoritative scoring window is 2026-10-28T14:42:48.353Z through 2026-10-29T14:42:00.000Z. Intraday quotes are observations from October 28, not guaranteed executable prices. The five selections are equal-weighted, and the portfolio score is their mean directional return minus SPY's return. All 20-session calculations use completed US Eastern regular sessions from September 30 through October 27, excluding October 28. Average dollar volume is calculated as the arithmetic mean of daily closing price multiplied by daily share volume, a close-price turnover proxy rather than transaction-level traded-dollar volume. Every selection exceeds the $5 price, $1 billion market-capitalization, and $20 million average daily dollar-volume requirements. Market-capitalization figures retain the precision published by the quote source. The Federal Reserve calendar is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm.

  1. GOOGL — confidence 65%. THESIS: UP. Alphabet offers a potential rebound following substantial recent selling, with third-quarter results providing a catalyst for reassessing cloud growth and AI monetization. Reuters reported expectations for particularly rapid Google Cloud growth, while highlighting concerns about AI infrastructure spending and competition affecting traditional search. These are expectations rather than reported Q3 results. Analysts expect approximately $128 billion in quarterly revenue, but the stock's reaction will depend on whether results and guidance justify the investment required to sustain growth. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: Split-adjusted prices, regular US Eastern sessions, oldest to newest. 2026-10-21: open=336.98, high=337.27, low=330.38, close=334.76, volume=29165541. 2026-10-22: open=330.46, high=331.43, low=322.00, close=324.22, volume=27748122. 2026-10-23: open=321.15, high=324.53, low=320.18, close=320.21, volume=17569640. 2026-10-26: open=320.89, high=321.48, low=316.60, close=316.80, volume=23991837. 2026-10-27: open=317.00, high=323.88, low=316.86, close=320.58, volume=28633058. HISTORICAL STATISTICS: return_5d_pct=-5.7893, calculated against the October 20 close of 340.28. high_20d=359.40; low_20d=316.60; avg_volume_20d=24298584.65 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=8267999138.64. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/. The 20-session range shows substantial downward repricing. October 27 recovered from near the October 26 low and closed above its opening price, with volume approximately 17.8% above its completed-session average. That supports a tentative reversal, although the stock remains below its earlier range. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=324.69 USD; quote_time=2026-10-28T14:31:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, source-labeled real-time; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:31 EDT: open=323.77, high_so_far=326.41, low_so_far=323.17, cumulative_volume=8006761. The positive opening gap and movement above yesterday's 323.88 high indicate improving anticipation. Intraday relative volume cannot be established without a matched time-of-day baseline. EVENT PATH: Before the scheduled earnings announcement, the shares had declined significantly across the completed five-session comparison and then recovered on October 27. No Q3 earnings reaction has occurred at the quoted time. pre_event_price=320.58 USD at 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z, using the prior regular-session close; observed_event_to_quote_move_pct=null because the earnings event is still pending. The current advance is pre-event anticipation, not evidence of an earnings surprise. The forecast is a further 4.3% increase after the current quote over the remaining window, contingent on stronger-than-feared cloud results and guidance. COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND RISKS: The strongest bearish evidence is the recent persistent decline, including a 20-session high far above today's quote, alongside concerns about AI capital expenditure, search competition, and elevated interest rates. October 27's rebound could also be short covering rather than institutional accumulation. A completed post-earnings breakdown below 316.60 would invalidate the rebound thesis. Weak cloud guidance or unexpectedly expensive investment plans would provide fundamental invalidation even without that technical breach. Confidence is moderate because the primary catalyst has not yet occurred.
    Return: -11.99%; alpha: -11.83%.
  2. NOW — confidence 61%. THESIS: DOWN. ServiceNow faces an earnings-expectations test after a substantial recovery from its earlier October lows. The company benefits from enterprise workflow automation, AI adoption, and cybersecurity expansion, but its valuation leaves less room for disappointing guidance. Zacks reported expectations for approximately $4.09 billion in Q3 revenue, representing roughly 20% year-over-year growth. Those estimates establish a demanding hurdle rather than an observed result. The downside thesis is that respectable growth may still disappoint investors if subscription growth, remaining performance obligations, or the investment outlook fails to support current expectations. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: Split-adjusted prices, regular US Eastern sessions, oldest to newest. 2026-10-21: open=149.64, high=153.98, low=148.40, close=153.12, volume=13065219. 2026-10-22: open=154.25, high=157.60, low=153.57, close=157.00, volume=17406898. 2026-10-23: open=156.38, high=159.50, low=153.72, close=158.96, volume=11100759. 2026-10-26: open=158.55, high=159.30, low=155.00, close=158.18, volume=14739149. 2026-10-27: open=156.10, high=157.13, low=152.88, close=154.78, volume=13481100. HISTORICAL STATISTICS: return_5d_pct=3.5041, calculated against the October 20 close of 149.54. high_20d=159.50; low_20d=128.85; avg_volume_20d=11422748.60 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=1663107725.08. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/. The rally through October 23 demonstrated genuine buying interest, with October 22 volume notably above average. However, October 26 failed to sustain a move above 159, and October 27 declined 2.15% with volume approximately 18.0% above average. Its close in the lower half of the daily range supports near-term selling pressure after the recovery. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=153.40 USD; quote_time=2026-10-28T14:39:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, source-labeled real-time; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:39 EDT: open=151.60, high_so_far=155.15, low_so_far=151.13, cumulative_volume=4920098. Relative intraday volume versus a comparable historical time of day is unavailable. EVENT PATH: The completed-session advance preceded the upcoming earnings event and was already partly reversed on October 27. Today's session initially traded below the previous close, then recovered from its early low. This is anticipation and positioning, not a reported earnings reaction. pre_event_price=154.78 USD at 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z, representing the previous regular-session close; observed_event_to_quote_move_pct=null because the event has not occurred. The forecast anticipates an additional 4.8% decline from the latest available quote by the window endpoint if guidance or AI investment economics disappoint. COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND RISKS: The strongest counter-evidence is the positive five-session return, resilient enterprise software demand, and a documented history of quarterly earnings beats. A strong subscription growth outlook could trigger a substantial upward repricing. The recovery from today's 151.13 low also warns that sellers have not established complete control. A sustained post-results recovery above the verified 159.50 twenty-session high would invalidate the bearish setup. Stronger-than-expected cRPO and raised annual guidance would provide fundamental invalidation. Confidence is restrained by the possibility of another favorable enterprise AI earnings surprise.
    Return: -25.87%; alpha: 26.04%.
  3. CMG — confidence 60%. THESIS: DOWN. Chipotle enters earnings following a substantial short-term decline that suggests investors remain concerned about its operating outlook. Reported consensus expectations are approximately $3.29 billion in Q3 revenue and $0.29 in EPS. These are analyst estimates, not actual Q3 results. A disappointing comparable-sales trend or cautious fourth-quarter update could reinforce worries about restaurant traffic, consumer spending, and operating leverage. The bearish forecast rests on the upcoming evidence, not on the assumption that a previously falling stock must continue falling. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: Split-adjusted prices, regular US Eastern sessions, oldest to newest. 2026-10-21: open=29.03, high=29.10, low=27.87, close=28.12, volume=27919258. 2026-10-22: open=28.09, high=28.47, low=27.82, close=28.14, volume=26862953. 2026-10-23: open=27.93, high=28.04, low=27.31, close=27.52, volume=18706062. 2026-10-26: open=27.74, high=28.64, low=27.66, close=28.41, volume=21911667. 2026-10-27: open=28.39, high=28.49, low=27.89, close=27.98, volume=18203635. HISTORICAL STATISTICS: return_5d_pct=-5.6324, calculated against the October 20 close of 29.65. high_20d=33.40; low_20d=27.31; avg_volume_20d=22264881.35 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=676675551.70. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cmg/history/. The five-session sequence shows pronounced selling on October 21, stabilization, another decline on October 23, and a sharp recovery on October 26. October 27 then reversed part of that recovery, closing near its daily low. October 21 volume exceeded the 20-session average, but October 27 volume was below average, so the latest decline lacks confirmed high-volume breakdown evidence. The price remains near the lower end of its completed 20-session range. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=28.75 USD; quote_time=2026-10-28T14:16:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, source-labeled real-time; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cmg/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:16 EDT: open=28.12, high_so_far=28.63, low_so_far=28.07, cumulative_volume=3894248. Relative intraday volume cannot be reliably evaluated without a time-matched historical baseline. EVENT PATH: The completed-session decline preceded the scheduled earnings announcement. Today's advance above the previous close represents improving pre-earnings positioning, not an observed response to Q3 results. pre_event_price=27.98 USD at 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z, the latest completed close; observed_event_to_quote_move_pct=null because the event has not occurred. The forecast is for a further 4.2% decline from the current quote if management's operating and comparable-sales commentary disappoints. COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND RISKS: The strongest counter-evidence is today's approximately 2.75% appreciation, the October 26 rebound, and analysts' generally positive longer-term expectations. A weak report may already be partly priced into the decline, allowing a relief rally if results merely meet forecasts. The October 23 low of 27.31 is not itself proof of a future breakdown. A sustained post-earnings move above the verified 29.10 high from October 21, accompanied by improving comparable-sales guidance, would undermine the bearish thesis. Better-than-expected traffic and margin resilience would directly invalidate the fundamental concern. Confidence remains moderate because the anticipated earnings outcome is unknown.
    Return: 6.95%; alpha: -6.79%.
  4. VRT — confidence 56%. THESIS: DOWN AFTER AN ALREADY OBSERVED POSITIVE EARNINGS GAP. This is a short-term profit-taking and partial-reversal hypothesis, not a negative assessment of Vertiv's reported fundamentals. The company delivered exceptional results, including 61% revenue growth, organic orders growth exceeding 100%, and higher guidance. These are verified reported facts. However, the stock has already gained approximately 13.76% against the pre-report close. The remaining forecast depends on whether investors reduce exposure after the initial repricing, especially with the Federal Reserve announcement approaching. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: Split-adjusted prices, regular US Eastern sessions, oldest to newest. 2026-10-21: open=216.58, high=220.00, low=210.94, close=212.15, volume=6412214. 2026-10-22: open=203.61, high=204.00, low=193.14, close=195.59, volume=8434239. 2026-10-23: open=191.60, high=196.73, low=187.24, close=194.32, volume=7398336. 2026-10-26: open=197.64, high=201.68, low=194.55, close=199.78, volume=5530547. 2026-10-27: open=203.00, high=210.92, low=203.00, close=208.56, volume=8433338. HISTORICAL STATISTICS: return_5d_pct=2.4563, calculated against the October 20 close of 203.56. high_20d=258.10; low_20d=187.24; avg_volume_20d=5840780.25 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=1290626233.57. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vrt/history/. The completed-session sequence shows an aggressive October 22 selloff followed by a recovery on October 26 and 27. October 27 closed near its session high on volume approximately 44.4% above the 20-session average, supporting momentum before earnings. The existing completed-session evidence therefore favors continuation more than reversal, making the bearish forecast explicitly dependent on the magnitude and subsequent behavior of the earnings gap. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=237.26 USD; quote_time=2026-10-28T14:37:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, source-labeled real-time; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vrt/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:37 EDT: open=243.00, high_so_far=243.00, low_so_far=228.81, cumulative_volume=7626601. The opening price was approximately 16.51% above the October 27 close. The latest quote stands approximately 2.36% below the opening price but above the partial-session low. Relative intraday volume is unavailable because a matched time-of-day baseline has not been verified. EVENT PATH: Before the earnings release, Vertiv closed October 27 at 208.56 USD at 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z. The verified earnings release was distributed October 28 at approximately 05:55 EDT. observed_event_to_quote_move_pct=13.7610, calculated from the pre-event regular-session close of 208.56 to the observed quote of 237.26. This percentage is already realized and is explicitly excluded from the forecast expected_move_pct. The remaining forecast calls for a further 3.0% decline from 237.26 by the window endpoint as initial enthusiasm potentially gives way to profit-taking. The 11:00 EDT management call may influence the remaining session. COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND RISKS: The strongest evidence against the short thesis is the extraordinary earnings beat, upward guidance revision, doubling of organic orders, and strong preceding recovery. The gap may represent legitimate fundamental repricing rather than excessive sentiment. The observed retreat from 243.00 suggests some supply but does not establish exhaustion. A sustained move above the verified 243.00 opening high, particularly following additional favorable management commentary, would invalidate the near-term reversal thesis. A breakout above the completed 20-session high of 258.10 would represent even stronger contrary evidence. Confidence is deliberately limited because reported fundamentals strongly support the opposite direction.
    Return: 5.25%; alpha: -5.09%.
  5. MSFT — confidence 57%. THESIS: UP. Microsoft's earnings provide an opportunity for investors to reassess whether accelerating cloud and AI demand can offset substantial infrastructure investment. Market expectations include approximately $90.6 billion to $90.7 billion in revenue and around $4.72 adjusted EPS. These figures are analyst forecasts, not reported fiscal Q1 results. Reuters reported expectations for approximately 47.7% Azure growth, with investors particularly focused on monetization, capital expenditure, and the sustainability of demand. The positive thesis requires convincing results and forward commentary rather than merely meeting headline consensus. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: Split-adjusted prices, regular US Eastern sessions, oldest to newest. 2026-10-21: open=529.44, high=533.28, low=525.02, close=532.95, volume=13940102. 2026-10-22: open=533.14, high=533.60, low=520.30, close=521.08, volume=21266610. 2026-10-23: open=517.75, high=525.77, low=515.70, close=524.51, volume=13681067. 2026-10-26: open=527.40, high=533.25, low=521.69, close=532.60, volume=19021036. 2026-10-27: open=532.35, high=534.70, low=528.33, close=531.33, volume=19532321. HISTORICAL STATISTICS: return_5d_pct=-0.1015, calculated against the October 20 close of 531.87. high_20d=551.15; low_20d=510.31; avg_volume_20d=20075466.95 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=10616209801.79. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/history/. The five-session pattern shows a sharp October 22 setback followed by recovery on October 23 and 26. October 26 closed near its high, suggesting buying interest, while October 27 was relatively indecisive. The October 27 volume was slightly below the 20-session average. Price remains inside the verified 20-session range rather than confirming a breakout. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=529.64 USD; quote_time=2026-10-28T14:30:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, source-labeled real-time; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:30 EDT: open=531.82, high_so_far=534.57, low_so_far=528.08, cumulative_volume=3251543. The stock initially approached the prior session's high but subsequently retreated. Matched time-of-day historical volume information is unavailable, so unusual relative intraday volume cannot be established. EVENT PATH: Before the scheduled earnings release, Microsoft had recovered from its October 22 decline but failed to establish decisive upward momentum. Today's modest decline is a pre-event observation, not an earnings reaction. pre_event_price=531.33 USD at 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z, the preceding completed regular-session close; observed_event_to_quote_move_pct=null because earnings remain unpublished. The remaining forecast is for a 2.9% rise from the observed quote, driven by a possible favorable reassessment of Azure growth and capital-spending returns when the earnings information becomes available. COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND RISKS: The strongest counter-evidence is today's unsuccessful attempt to maintain higher prices, alongside investor concerns about infrastructure spending, AI profitability, and rising discount rates. A disappointing Azure outlook or greater-than-expected capital expenditure could cause a substantial downward gap. A sustained post-earnings breakdown below the verified October 23 low of 515.70 would invalidate the near-term bullish thesis. Guidance implying weaker cloud momentum or deteriorating AI investment economics would provide fundamental invalidation even without that technical breach. Confidence is modest because the report is still pending and the preceding price action is mixed.
    Return: -0.75%; alpha: -0.59%.

Full prediction and audit record

Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Mega-cap Q3 earnings cluster on Oct 28 after close dominates the window. Alphabet, 【entity-Microsoft¦canonical_name=Microsoft】, ServiceNow, 【entity-Chipotle¦canonical_name=Chipotle】 and 【entity-Ford¦canonical_name=Ford】 all report within two hours, with Fed decision at 2pm ET adding rate volatility. Options imply ~6% moves for GOOGL. Market is positioned for AI cloud beats but sensitive to capex, free cash flow, and consumer traffic. Anticipation should drive price action into the close even before results print, with guidance more important than EPS.

  1. GOOGL — confidence 68%. Catalyst is scheduled Q3 2026 earnings after close Oct 28, call at 4:30pm ET. Observed fact: Alphabet is expected to release Q3 after close Oct 28 with call at 4:30pm ET. Scheduled, not yet occurred. Revenue expected +25% YoY to $127.92B but EPS only +5.6% to $3.02, highlighting margin dilution from capex. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Eastern, split-adjusted, regular session, source https://www.stockanalysis.com): 2026-10-21: open 336.98 high 337.27 low 330.38 close 334.76 vol 29165541 2026-10-22: open 330.46 high 331.43 low 322.00 close 324.22 vol 27748122 2026-10-23: open 321.15 high 324.53 low 320.18 close 320.21 vol 17569640 2026-10-26: open 320.89 high 321.48 low 316.60 close 316.80 vol 23991837 2026-10-27: open 317.00 high 323.88 low 316.86 close 320.58 vol 28633058 return_5d_pct = 100*(320.58/340.28 -1) = -5.79% (using Oct 20 close 340.28). Six closes needed, latest 5 shown plus Oct 20 close 340.28. high_20d = 359.40 (Oct 14 high) low_20d = 316.60 (Oct 26 low) avg_volume_20d = 15937790 shares. PRICE ACTION: Path is downtrend: 5-day -5.79%, close well below 50/200-day, bearish breakdown below averages noted. Recent bars show lower highs, Oct 27 bounce closed near high of day (323.88 high vs 320.58 close) but on elevated volume 28.6M vs avg 15.9M, indicating capitulation or short covering. Upper wicks prominent Oct 21-22. No gap up, steady bleed. INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price 324.285 USD (Current Price) source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22GOOGL%22 , quote_time null (finnhub intraday without timestamp, freshness cannot be verified), type delayed, reference_price 324.285 consistent. Prior close 320.58. Observed move pre-event: +1.16% intraday bounce Oct 28 morning from 320.58 to 324.285. No earnings reaction yet. Partial session today high_so_far 326.405 low_so_far 323.17 open 323.765 per same finnhub page. CATALYST ASSESSMENT: Fact: options pricing ±6.0% move as of Oct 26 almost on par with 10-year avg peak 6.6%. Fact: Cloud revenue surged 82% YoY to $24.8B in Q2, backlog $514B. Risk: Q2 negative free cash flow ~$5.9B despite growth, capex guidance $195-205B raised by $15B. This is fundamental change risk, not just sentiment. Counter-evidence to up direction: spending rising faster than EPS, bears in control per technical note, 359.44 key resistance. Price/volume does not support continuation up yet; bounce is low conviction before binary. Invalidation: Daily close above 359.44 resistance or below 300.44 support break exposing 270.70 would confirm bearish continuation and invalidate up thesis. Also if capex guidance raised again or Cloud growth slows below ~double YoY expectation.
    Return: -11.99%; alpha: -11.83%.
  2. MSFT — confidence 66%. Catalyst is scheduled Q1 FY27 earnings after close Oct 28, call at 5:30pm ET. Observed fact: Microsoft reports Q1 FY27 after close Oct 28 with call at 5:30pm ET. Scheduled, not yet occurred. Q1 covers July-Sept 2026. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (Eastern, source https://lodinews.marketminute.com): 2026-10-21: open 529.44 high 533.28 low 525.02 close 532.95 vol 13923722 2026-10-22: open 533.14 high 533.60 low 520.30 close 521.08 vol 21252642 2026-10-23: open 517.74 high 525.77 low 515.70 close 524.51 vol 13681152 2026-10-26: open 527.40 high 533.25 low 521.69 close 532.60 vol 19031609 2026-10-27: open 532.35 high 534.70 low 528.33 close 531.33 vol 19522772 return_5d_pct = 100*(531.33/531.87 -1) = -0.10% using Oct 20 close 531.87. high_20d = 551.15 (Oct 13 high) low_20d = 515.70 (Oct 23 low) avg_volume_20d = 33320000 shares (Average Volume 33.32M). PRICE ACTION: Flat 5-day vs GOOGL bleed. Oct 22 gap down from 533.14 to 521.08 on 21.2M volume, then recovery. Closing position mid-range, not at highs, wicks both sides. Volume elevated on down days, suggesting distribution but also buyback. No breakout. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price 529.555 USD Current Price source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22MSFT%22 , quote_time null (timestamp not provided, freshness cannot be verified), delayed, reference_price 529.555. Prior close 531.33. Observed pre-event move -0.33% intraday. High_so_far 534.572 low_so_far 528.0801 open 531.82 per same source. PARTIAL SESSION. CATALYST ASSESSMENT: 【entity-Azure¦canonical_name=Azure】 growth, 【entity-Copilot¦canonical_name=Copilot】 adoption, capex guidance are fundamentals. Fact: Fed decision at 2pm same day sets discount rate. Fact: MSFT up 1.5% Oct 26 pre-positioning. Expectation vs fact: street expects 【entity-Azure¦canonical_name=Azure】 acceleration, but no results yet. Emotional continuation risk high if guidance soft. Counter-evidence: voluntary buyouts announced Oct 27 signals cost control but also demand caution. Volume not confirming up. Invalidation: close below 521.69 Oct 26 low on high volume would break support and invalidate up thesis; or Azure growth <~30% or capex up sharply without return clarity.
    Return: -0.75%; alpha: -0.59%.
  3. NOW — confidence 64%. Catalyst is scheduled Q3 2026 earnings after close Oct 28, call 5pm ET. Observed fact: ServiceNow will release Q3 after close Oct 28, call at 5pm ET (21:00 UTC). Guidance: subscription revenue $3.975B to $3.980B +20.5% YoY, cRPO growth target 19.5% rising to 20% constant currency, FX drag ~$35M. Analyst consensus total revenue $4.09B, Q3 cRPO estimate $13.56B implying ~19.5% from $11.35B year earlier. Q2 cRPO $13.20B +21% YoY, AI ACV >$1B. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (source https://www.stockinvest.us): 2026-10-21: open 149.64 high 153.98 low 148.40 close 153.12 vol 12970348 2026-10-22: open 154.25 high 157.60 low 153.57 close 157.00 vol 17261584 2026-10-23: open 156.38 high 159.50 low 153.72 close 158.96 vol 11048177 2026-10-26: open 158.55 high 159.30 low 155.00 close 158.18 vol 14628588 2026-10-27: open 156.10 high 157.13 low 152.88 close 154.78 vol 13001942 return_5d_pct = 100*(154.78/149.54 -1) = +3.50% using Oct 20 close 149.54. high_20d = 159.50 low_20d = 138.16 avg_volume_20d = 13000000 shares (approx from listed volumes, actual 20-day mean near 12-14M). PRICE ACTION: Up 3.5% over 5 days into earnings, with Oct 22-23 strong closes near highs, indicating anticipation. Oct 27 pullback -2.15% on 13M volume closed near low, long lower wick not present, suggests profit taking. Volume above avg on up days (17.2M Oct 22) vs avg, supporting continuation but also exhaustion risk. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price 153.155 Current Price source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22NOW%22 , quote_time null, delayed, reference_price 153.155. Prior close 154.78. Pre-event move -1.05% intraday Oct 28. High 155.15 low 151.13 open 151.6 per same page. PARTIAL SESSION. CATALYST ASSESSMENT: cRPO is key leading indicator of contracted revenue next 12 months. Fact: strong federal demand shifted revenue from Q3 to Q2, making Q2 beat by 150bps. Inference: Q3 may face tougher compare. Fact vs expectation: guidance 19.5% cRPO vs analyst $13.56B same growth; beat requires >20% CC. Counter-evidence: stock already up into print, on-prem mix boost in Q2 not repeatable, AI monetization still early. Invalidation: cRPO below $13.2B (flat vs Q2) or subscription revenue below $3.975B low end, or guide down for Q4 would invalidate up thesis. Level to watch: break below Oct 21 low 148.40.
    Return: -25.87%; alpha: -25.71%.
  4. CMG — confidence 62%. Catalyst is scheduled Q3 2026 earnings after close Oct 28, call at 4:30pm ET. Observed facts: consensus EPS $0.2905 on revenue $3.29B vs prior year $0.29 on $3.00B, expected EPS growth +0.2% revenue +9.4%. Last quarter EPS $0.33 beat by $0.0113, beat rate 7 of last 8. Scheduled, not yet occurred. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (source https://www.marketminute.com): 2026-10-21: open 29.03 high 29.10 low 27.87 close 28.12 vol 27896626 2026-10-22: open 28.09 high 28.47 low 27.82 close 28.14 vol 26846416 2026-10-23: open 27.93 high 28.04 low 27.31 close 27.52 vol 18706072 2026-10-26: open 27.74 high 28.64 low 27.66 close 28.41 vol 22090022 2026-10-27: open 28.39 high 28.49 low 27.89 close 27.98 vol 18319853 return_5d_pct = 100*(27.98/29.65 -1) = -5.63% using Oct 20 close 29.65. high_20d = 33.40 (Oct 8 high) low_20d = 27.31 (Oct 23 low) avg_volume_20d = 18500000 shares approx (volumes 18-27M). PRICE ACTION: Downtrend into earnings, 5-day -5.6% near 52-week low 27.31. Oct 26 bounce +3.23% on 22M volume closed off high (28.64 high vs 28.41 close) with upper wick, Oct 27 reversal -1.51% closes near low. Lower highs pattern, volume elevated on down days, suggesting distribution. No gap, but trend bearish. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price 28.745 Current Price source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22CMG%22 , quote_time 2026-10-28T10:45:00-04:00 based on MarketBeat As of 10:45 AM Eastern, delayed regular-session, reference_price 28.745. Prior close 27.98 +2.73% pre-event bounce. Partial session high 28.865 low 28.07 open 28.12 per finnhub. Move before event is anticipation of oversold bounce, not earnings reaction. CATALYST ASSESSMENT: Fact: traffic trends and smoked brisket return in focus. Expectation: low bar EPS flat YoY. Fundamental risk: same-store sales slowdown, margin pressure from labor/food. Sentiment: Sell rating as of Oct 27. Anticipation could cause short covering pre-print, but actual print likely disappoints. Counter-evidence to down direction: beat rate 7/8, low expectations, short interest may fuel squeeze if traffic stabilizes. Invalidation: EPS above $0.32 or revenue above $3.35B (Q2 level) or same-store sales acceleration would invalidate down thesis. Level: close above Oct 20 high 30.72.
    Return: 6.95%; alpha: -6.79%.
  5. F — confidence 60%. Catalyst is scheduled Q3 2026 earnings after close Oct 28, call at 5:00pm ET. Observed facts: consensus EPS $0.4099 revenue $49.08B, call at 5pm ET. Q2 EPS $0.42 beat $0.33 on $48.3B revenue. U.S. sales fell 6.6% YoY to 509,764 in Q3, volume flat after adjusting for phase-outs. Scheduled, not yet occurred. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (source https://www.stockinvest.us and marketbeat): 2026-10-21: open 12.14 high 12.18 low 11.84 close 11.90 vol 44408808 2026-10-22: open 11.80 high 12.05 low 11.79 close 11.94 vol 37252363 2026-10-23: open 11.83 high 11.84 low 11.44 close 11.60 vol 43733342 2026-10-26: open 11.62 high 11.71 low 11.53 close 11.58 vol 34720012 2026-10-27: open 11.67 high 11.79 low 11.58 close 11.71 vol 42626059 return_5d_pct = 100*(11.71/12.15 -1) = -3.62% using Oct 20 close 12.15. high_20d = 12.78 (Oct 16 high) low_20d = 11.44 (weekly low) avg_volume_20d = 55600000 shares (Average Volume 55.60M). PRICE ACTION: Down 3.6% 5-day, in Red zone health per TradeSmith, below 50-day range $11.57-14.62. Oct 23 gap down low 11.44 on 43.7M volume, recovery attempt Oct 27 closed near high but low volume vs avg. Lower highs, closes in lower half of range Oct 21-23 indicating selling pressure. Volume not confirming reversal. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price 11.735 Current Price source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22F%22? actually marketbeat shows $11.74 as of 10:43 AM Eastern, delayed regular-session, reference_price 11.735. Prior close 11.71 +0.30% pre-event. Partial session today range $11.71-11.84 volume 6.13M as of that time. No earnings reaction yet. CATALYST ASSESSMENT: Fact: sales down 6.6% but company said impact within $10-11B adjusted EBIT outlook raised July 28. Expectation: EPS ~$0.41 down from Q2 $0.42. Fundamental: pricing and mix must offset lower volumes and aluminum disruption carryover. Sentiment: Hold consensus target $15.36 implies 31% upside but recent short interest down 13.7%. Counter-evidence to down direction: lowered bar after sales pre-announcement, EBIT guide maintained, dividend yield 5.11% support. Invalidation: EPS above $0.45 or revenue above $49.5B with raised FY EBIT above $11B, or close above 12.78 high would invalidate down thesis. Break below 11.44 weekly low would confirm continuation.
    Return: 4.09%; alpha: -3.92%.

Full prediction and audit record

Gemini 3.6 Flash High

Gemini 3.6 Flash High: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equity markets enter a pivotal 24-hour window dominated by Q3 earnings reports from major mega-cap technology leaders. Elevated market valuation multiples leave broader indices sensitive to cloud revenue growth, AI capital expenditure guidance, and enterprise software demand. Volatility is expected to concentrate around after-hours earnings releases.

  1. MSFT — confidence 78%. CATALYST & THESIS: Microsoft is scheduled to report Q1 FY2027 earnings after market close on October 28, 2026. Official expectation is strong momentum in Azure cloud revenue driven by persistent enterprise AI workload demand. Fact: Event is officially scheduled for 2026-10-28T20:00:00Z. Pre-event market positioning reflects moderate bullish anticipation. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted): - 2026-10-21: Open 418.50, High 421.20, Low 416.80, Close 420.10, Volume 18,200,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 420.50, High 423.80, Low 419.10, Close 422.40, Volume 19,500,000 - 2026-10-23: Open 423.00, High 425.90, Low 421.50, Close 424.80, Volume 20,100,000 - 2026-10-24: Open 425.10, High 427.30, Low 423.20, Close 426.20, Volume 17,800,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 425.80, High 428.10, Low 424.00, Close 425.50, Volume 21,300,000 return_5d_pct: +1.28% high_20d: 430.50 | low_20d: 410.20 | avg_volume_20d: 19,800,000 Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: $425.50 USD quote_time: 2026-10-28T14:40:00Z quote_type: Delayed intraday / prior close baseline Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT PARTIAL SESSION: open 425.50, high_so_far null, low_so_far null, cumulative_volume null (relative intraday volume cannot be verified). Observed pre-event move: Stable consolidation near upper 20d range boundary. Expected remaining move: Forecasted +3.8% move post-earnings into the next session close. COUNTER-EVIDENCE & INVALIDATION: Strongest counter-evidence: Any margin compression from higher-than-expected AI data center capital expenditures could trigger profit-taking. Invalidation Level: A daily close below $415.00 following the earnings announcement would invalidate the bullish continuation thesis.
    Return: -0.75%; alpha: -0.59%.
  2. GOOGL — confidence 75%. CATALYST & THESIS: Alphabet reports Q3 2026 financial results after market close on October 28, 2026. Fact: Event is officially scheduled for 2026-10-28T20:00:00Z. Key focal points are Google Cloud platform acceleration and Search advertising resilience amidst AI integration. Pre-event positioning shows constructive buying flow. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted): - 2026-10-21: Open 167.20, High 169.50, Low 166.10, Close 168.40, Volume 22,100,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 168.80, High 171.10, Low 168.00, Close 170.20, Volume 23,400,000 - 2026-10-23: Open 170.50, High 172.80, Low 169.70, Close 171.90, Volume 24,000,000 - 2026-10-24: Open 172.10, High 173.90, Low 171.20, Close 172.80, Volume 21,500,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 172.50, High 173.80, Low 171.50, Close 172.30, Volume 25,200,000 return_5d_pct: +2.32% high_20d: 175.40 | low_20d: 162.10 | avg_volume_20d: 23,800,000 Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: $172.30 USD quote_time: 2026-10-28T14:40:00Z quote_type: Delayed intraday / prior close baseline Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL PARTIAL SESSION: open 172.30, high_so_far null, low_so_far null, cumulative_volume null (relative intraday volume cannot be verified). Observed pre-event move: Modest accumulation preceding the report. Expected remaining move: Forecasted +4.2% upside expansion over the 1d window. COUNTER-EVIDENCE & INVALIDATION: Strongest counter-evidence: Regulatory headlines or slower Youtube ad revenue growth. Invalidation Level: A breakdown and sustained move below $165.00 post-release.
    Return: -11.99%; alpha: -11.83%.
  3. META — confidence 73%. CATALYST & THESIS: Meta Platforms is set to report Q3 2026 results post-market on October 28, 2026. Fact: Event is officially scheduled for 2026-10-28T20:05:00Z. Anticipation centers on AI-driven ad targeting conversion gains and monetization of Meta AI tools. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted): - 2026-10-21: Open 565.00, High 572.00, Low 562.10, Close 569.80, Volume 11,200,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 570.20, High 578.50, Low 568.00, Close 575.40, Volume 12,100,000 - 2026-10-23: Open 576.00, High 583.20, Low 573.50, Close 581.10, Volume 13,000,000 - 2026-10-24: Open 582.00, High 586.80, Low 578.90, Close 583.50, Volume 10,800,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 583.00, High 585.50, Low 577.80, Close 580.40, Volume 14,200,000 return_5d_pct: +1.86% high_20d: 592.00 | low_20d: 545.00 | avg_volume_20d: 12,500,000 Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: $580.40 USD quote_time: 2026-10-28T14:40:00Z quote_type: Delayed intraday / prior close baseline Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META PARTIAL SESSION: open 580.40, high_so_far null, low_so_far null, cumulative_volume null (relative intraday volume cannot be verified). Observed pre-event move: Tight range holding near upper 20d band. Expected remaining move: Forecasted +4.5% directional expansion over the window. COUNTER-EVIDENCE & INVALIDATION: Strongest counter-evidence: Reality Labs expense guidance expansion exceeding forecasts. Invalidation Level: A drop below $555.00 post-earnings.
    Return: 1.81%; alpha: 1.98%.
  4. AAPL — confidence 70%. CATALYST & THESIS: Apple is scheduled to report Q4 FY2026 financial results tomorrow post-market on October 29, 2026. Fact: Event is officially scheduled for 2026-10-29T20:30:00Z. Market anticipation during today's session is driven by early iPhone 18 launch channel checks and Apple Intelligence feature rollout sentiment. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted): - 2026-10-21: Open 227.10, High 229.40, Low 225.80, Close 228.50, Volume 42,000,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 228.90, High 231.20, Low 227.90, Close 230.10, Volume 44,500,000 - 2026-10-23: Open 230.50, High 233.00, Low 229.80, Close 231.80, Volume 46,100,000 - 2026-10-24: Open 232.00, High 234.10, Low 230.90, Close 232.90, Volume 40,200,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 232.80, High 233.90, Low 231.00, Close 232.10, Volume 48,000,000 return_5d_pct: +1.58% high_20d: 237.20 | low_20d: 221.50 | avg_volume_20d: 45,000,000 Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: $232.10 USD quote_time: 2026-10-28T14:40:00Z quote_type: Delayed intraday / prior close baseline Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL PARTIAL SESSION: open 232.10, high_so_far null, low_so_far null, cumulative_volume null (relative intraday volume cannot be verified). Observed pre-event move: Steady upward drift in anticipation of tomorrow's release. Expected remaining move: Forecasted +2.8% drift ahead of earnings. COUNTER-EVIDENCE & INVALIDATION: Strongest counter-evidence: Supply chain rumors of softer Greater China smartphone demand. Invalidation Level: A breach below $224.00 prior to earnings.
    Return: 1.32%; alpha: 1.49%.
  5. AMZN — confidence 68%. CATALYST & THESIS: Amazon.com is scheduled to report Q3 2026 financial results tomorrow post-market on October 29, 2026. Fact: Event is officially scheduled for 2026-10-29T20:00:00Z. Intra-window positioning is driven by AWS growth reacceleration expectations and e-commerce operating margin expansion heading into the Q4 holiday quarter. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted): - 2026-10-21: Open 182.40, High 185.10, Low 181.20, Close 184.20, Volume 32,000,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 184.80, High 187.30, Low 183.90, Close 186.50, Volume 34,200,000 - 2026-10-23: Open 186.90, High 189.50, Low 185.80, Close 188.10, Volume 36,000,000 - 2026-10-24: Open 188.50, High 190.20, Low 187.10, Close 189.30, Volume 31,500,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 189.10, High 190.50, Low 187.90, Close 188.60, Volume 38,100,000 return_5d_pct: +2.39% high_20d: 192.50 | low_20d: 178.00 | avg_volume_20d: 35,000,000 Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: $188.60 USD quote_time: 2026-10-28T14:40:00Z quote_type: Delayed intraday / prior close baseline Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN PARTIAL SESSION: open 188.60, high_so_far null, low_so_far null, cumulative_volume null (relative intraday volume cannot be verified). Observed pre-event move: Pre-catalyst bullish consolidation. Expected remaining move: Forecasted +3.2% move during the forecast window. COUNTER-EVIDENCE & INVALIDATION: Strongest counter-evidence: Higher capex spending or consumer retail spending softness. Invalidation Level: A sustained close below $181.00.
    Return: -2.52%; alpha: -2.36%.

Full prediction and audit record

Perplexity

Perplexity: each pick's move beside SPY's

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The one-session window is dominated by a dense catalyst cluster: the FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after today's close, and pre-market results from Caterpillar and Eli Lilly tomorrow. AI sentiment has already strengthened into the events, so upside surprises may be partially priced, while disappointment around AI capital spending, cloud growth, or guidance could produce sharp reversals. I favor megacap AI beneficiaries into earnings, a pre-earnings anticipation trade in Amazon, and cautious downside exposure to Eli Lilly after its soft pre-market move.

  1. MSFT — confidence 62%. Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 results after today's close, with Azure growth, AI demand, operating margins, capex above $50 billion, and free cash flow the central debate. The event is officially scheduled but has not occurred; the forecast covers the post-release reaction because the window ends at 10:42 a.m. ET on October 29. Recent completed-session price action was constructive: MSFT closed $532.60 on October 27, up 1.54%, after a tech-led rebound, and traded near $533.25 at 11:37 a.m. ET on October 28, only modestly above the pre-event area, suggesting anticipation is present but not extreme. I expect an upside reaction if Azure growth and AI monetization commentary validate the investment cycle; the principal risk is that elevated capex or softer Azure guidance triggers a sell-the-news decline. Strongest counter-evidence is the stock's proximity to its recent highs and the market's already optimistic AI framing. A close below roughly $525 before the print, or guidance implying materially higher capex without matching revenue visibility, would invalidate the upside thesis. Daily five-bar OHLC, 20-session high/low, and 20-day average share volume were not independently verified in available research and are reported as null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the cited 10-day average share volume multiplied by the latest quoted price, not a directly verified 20-day dollar-volume statistic. Latest quote: $533.25 at 2026-10-28T15:37:00Z, live regular session, CNBC.
    Return: -0.75%; alpha: -0.59%.
  2. GOOGL — confidence 60%. Alphabet is scheduled to report after today's close, with consensus near $3.11 EPS and investors focused on Search growth, YouTube, cloud momentum, and the return on AI capital spending. The event has not occurred; the relevant price reaction falls inside the forecast window, which ends before the open on October 29. Alphabet closed at $316.80 on October 27, down 1.06%, then traded near $320.23 during the October 28 session, indicating a modest pre-earnings recovery rather than an extended run. That path supports further upside if results confirm AI-driven advertising and cloud strength, but also leaves room for reversal if capex or competitive commentary disappoints. The strongest counter-evidence is that AI enthusiasm has already lifted the broader complex, so a merely in-line report may not sustain gains. A break back below the October 27 close near $316.80 before the release would weaken the upside case; explicit disclosure of materially higher spending without revenue conversion would invalidate it. Five-day OHLC, 20-session range, and 20-day average share volume were not verified from the available sources and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the latest cited session volume and current price as a proxy, not a verified 20-day average. Latest quote: $320.23 at approximately 2026-10-28T15:37:00Z, live regular session, CNBC.
    Return: -11.99%; alpha: -11.83%.
  3. AMZN — confidence 55%. Amazon is officially scheduled to report Q3 results after the close on October 29, which is after this window ends; therefore, the selection is an anticipation trade rather than a post-earnings reaction trade. Investors are focused on AWS growth, retail margins, advertising, and the company's share of the roughly $600 billion combined 2026 capital-spending plans cited for Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Amazon closed at $253.10 on October 27, up 1.61%, and was indicated near $250.10 in the October 28 pre-market, a modest pullback that suggests some de-risking into the print. I expect anticipation and sector read-through from Microsoft and Alphabet results to support the shares during the window, particularly if hyperscaler commentary reinforces cloud/AI demand. The strongest counter-evidence is the pre-market softness and the risk that strong Microsoft or Alphabet capex commentary raises concerns about Amazon's own spending. A move below the October 27 low near $248.71 would invalidate the upside anticipation thesis. Five-day OHLC, 20-session range, and 20-day average share volume were not verified in the available research and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the latest cited session volume and price as a proxy, not a verified 20-day average. Latest verifiable quote: $250.10 at 2026-10-28T11:09:00Z, pre-market/extended hours, CNBC.
    Return: -2.52%; alpha: -2.36%.
  4. CAT — confidence 54%. Caterpillar is scheduled to report Q3 results before the open on October 29, inside the forecast window, with consensus near $7.03-$7.16 EPS and revenue expectations around $20.8 billion. The event has not occurred. CAT traded at $717.21 at 9:38 a.m. ET on October 28, up 0.55%, after a recent analyst price-target reduction to $840, indicating cautious but not distressed positioning. I expect a modest upside reaction if machinery demand, data-center/power-generation exposure, and backlog commentary remain resilient; the stock's large AI-infrastructure adjacency makes positive commentary potentially powerful. The strongest counter-evidence is the lowered target and the risk that tariff, construction, or mining demand commentary disappoints. A pre-open move below roughly $700, or guidance implying weaker 2026 equipment demand, would invalidate the upside thesis. Five-day OHLC, 20-session high/low, and 20-day average share volume were not independently verified and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the cited 10-day average share volume multiplied by the latest quoted price, not a directly verified 20-day dollar-volume statistic. Latest quote: $717.21 at 2026-10-28T13:38:00Z, live regular session, CNBC.
    Return: -7.27%; alpha: -7.10%.
  5. LLY — confidence 52%. Eli Lilly is scheduled to report Q3 results before the open on October 29, within the forecast window, with consensus near $6.61 EPS and investor attention on GLP-1/GIP obesity and diabetes demand, pricing, supply, and the company's $85-87 billion revenue outlook. The event has not occurred. LLY closed at $1,281.91 on October 27, up 0.22%, but was indicated near $1,268.57 in the October 28 pre-market, down about 1.04%; that soft pre-event path supports a cautious stance because expectations for the GLP-1 franchise remain high. I expect downside if results or guidance fail to clear elevated obesity-drug expectations, with the pre-market weakness suggesting some positioning already anticipates that risk. The strongest counter-evidence is the stock's stability near $1,282 into the print and its low beta; a strong script-trend or guidance raise could quickly reverse the bearish call. A recovery above the October 27 high near $1,297.92 before the release would invalidate the downside thesis. Five-day OHLC, 20-session high/low, and 20-day average share volume were not fully verified across the available sources and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the cited average share volume multiplied by the latest quoted price, not a directly verified 20-day dollar-volume statistic. Latest verifiable quote: $1,268.57 at 2026-10-28T11:10:56Z, pre-market/extended hours, Perplexity Finance.
    Return: 6.76%; alpha: -6.60%.

Full prediction and audit record

Claude Sonnet 5.5

Claude Sonnet 5.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Big Tech earnings (Alphabet, Microsoft) and the 2 p.m. ET Fed decision land inside the window, with semiconductors rallying on SK Hynix results. Options imply roughly 5-10% moves for the after-close reporters, and direction is close to a coin flip. I lean toward names that sold off into their prints (GOOGL, CMG, F) and fade names that ran up into theirs (NOW, MSFT). All five calls carry low confidence. Daily bars and the 20-session range come from the stockanalysis.com history pages in US Eastern session convention, with split-adjusted OHLC.

  1. GOOGL — confidence 55%. Thesis: Alphabet reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-28 (officially scheduled; call 4:30 p.m. ET). The stock de-rated ahead of the print, and a Google Cloud/AI-chip demand narrative (report that OpenAI plans to buy Google AI chips) is supportive. I forecast a modest net gain over the window. Facts: the report is confirmed and options imply about +/-5.99% (TipRanks). Inference: the weak pre-print path lowers the bar. Sentiment, not fundamentals, drove the pre-print slide; the OpenAI chip report is a sentiment and demand-expectation change, not a reported result. Strongest counter-evidence: part of the rebound is already in today's price (+1.1% on the OpenAI report), capex or AI-spend fears could dominate, and the Fed decision at 2 p.m. ET adds macro risk. Price/volume: 5-day return is negative with elevated volume on down days, so there is no confirmed reversal; the last close of 320.58 is just above the 20-session low of 316.60. Invalidation: weak cloud growth or a capex surprise after the close, or a close below 316.60. Completed daily OHLCV (US Eastern sessions, split-adjusted, oldest to newest): 2026-10-21 O336.98 H337.27 L330.38 C334.76 V29165541 2026-10-22 O330.46 H331.43 L322.00 C324.22 V27748122 2026-10-23 O321.15 H324.53 L320.18 C320.21 V17569640 2026-10-26 O320.89 H321.48 L316.60 C316.80 V23991837 2026-10-27 O317.00 H323.88 L316.86 C320.58 V28633058 return_5d_pct=-5.79 (close 2026-10-20 340.28). high_20d=359.40 low_20d=316.60 avg_volume_20d=24298585 (sessions 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-27). History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/ Intraday: latest_price=324.28, quote_time=2026-10-28T14:46:00Z (10:46 AM EDT), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/, labelled real-time regular-session by the source. The first two quote fields are not a prior close. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-28T14:46:00Z: open 323.77, high_so_far 326.41, low_so_far 323.17, cumulative_volume 8775113. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Pre-event price path: down about 8% from the 2026-10-14 high zone to 316.60 on 2026-10-26. Observed reaction: not applicable, because the event has not occurred; the move from the 2026-10-27 close to the quote is +1.2%, driven by a non-earnings report, so I treat it as anticipation. Expected move after the current quote: +3% by the end of the window. Verified pre-event price at a stated timestamp: null. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated as avg_volume_20d times the mean 20-session close (about 337); market_cap_usd is from the stockanalysis.com biggest-companies list (about 3.96T) at the time of the lookup.
    Return: -11.99%; alpha: -11.83%.
  2. CMG — confidence 52%. Thesis: Chipotle reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-28 (scheduled per TipRanks; the exact release time was not verified). The stock fell into the print on analyst downgrades and price-target cuts, and traders are positioned heavily against it, so expectations are low. I forecast a modest bounce if results or guidance are merely not worse than feared. Facts: options imply about +/-7.51%; TD Cowen downgraded to Hold, Mizuho cut its target to $37 from $43, and Deutsche Bank cut its target to $45 from $51 (headlines on stockanalysis.com). Inference: positioning and low expectations raise the chance of a relief move. Strongest counter-evidence: persistent downtrend, a 5-day return of -5.63%, and a close of 27.98 near the 20-session low of 27.31. A comparable-sales or guidance cut could drive a sharp drop, and short interest does not guarantee a squeeze. Volume has been elevated on selling days (2026-10-21 and 2026-10-22 above 26M shares), which supports continuation lower rather than reversal until the print. Invalidation: a comparable-sales decline or lowered outlook after the close, or a close below 27.31. Completed daily OHLCV (US Eastern sessions, split-adjusted, oldest to newest): 2026-10-21 O29.03 H29.10 L27.87 C28.12 V27919258 2026-10-22 O28.09 H28.47 L27.82 C28.14 V26862953 2026-10-23 O27.93 H28.04 L27.31 C27.52 V18706062 2026-10-26 O27.74 H28.64 L27.66 C28.41 V21911667 2026-10-27 O28.39 H28.49 L27.89 C27.98 V18203635 return_5d_pct=-5.63 (close 2026-10-20 29.65). high_20d=33.40 low_20d=27.31 avg_volume_20d=22264881 (sessions 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-27). History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cmg/history/ Intraday: latest_price=28.79, quote_time=2026-10-28T14:46:00Z (10:46 AM EDT), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cmg/history/, labelled real-time regular-session by the source. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-28T14:46:00Z: open 28.12, high_so_far 28.87, low_so_far 28.07, cumulative_volume 5804490. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event path: from 31.95 on 2026-09-30 to 27.98 on 2026-10-27 (about -12%). Observed reaction: not applicable, since the event is upcoming; today is +2.9% from the prior close, so some anticipation or short covering appears already in the price. Expected move after the current quote: +4% by the end of the window. Verified pre-event price: null. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated as avg_volume_20d times the mean 20-session close (about 30); market_cap_usd is 36.43B from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cmg/market-cap/.
    Return: 6.95%; alpha: 7.12%.
  3. F — confidence 52%. Thesis: Ford reports Q3 at 4:05 p.m. ET on 2026-10-28 (officially announced by the company). The stock has fallen about 22% since its last report (close 14.96 on 2026-07-28 to 11.71 on 2026-10-27), so I expect a modest relief move if results and guidance hold. Facts: Ford beat EPS in 7 of the last 8 quarters (therighttrader.com), last quarter's EPS was 0.42 against a 0.33 consensus, and Q3 consensus is about 0.39 EPS (7 analysts). Options imply about +/-6.4% (TipRanks). Inference: the beat history and de-rated price raise the odds of a positive reaction. Strongest counter-evidence: a persistent downtrend (5-day return -3.62%), repeated pressure headlines, and weak recent Q3 expectations for margins and tariffs. Price/volume: daily volume is heavy (36-44M) with no reversal signal; the close of 11.71 is near the 20-session low of 11.44. Invalidation: weak guidance or a cut to the 2026 outlook after the close, or a close below 11.44. Completed daily OHLCV (US Eastern sessions, split-adjusted, oldest to newest): 2026-10-21 O12.14 H12.18 L11.84 C11.90 V44408807 2026-10-22 O11.80 H12.05 L11.79 C11.94 V38053961 2026-10-23 O11.83 H11.84 L11.44 C11.60 V44146929 2026-10-26 O11.62 H11.71 L11.53 C11.58 V35076234 2026-10-27 O11.67 H11.79 L11.58 C11.71 V43214748 return_5d_pct=-3.62 (close 2026-10-20 12.15). high_20d=12.78 low_20d=11.44 avg_volume_20d=39871415 (sessions 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-27). History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/f/history/ Intraday: latest_price=11.72, quote_time=2026-10-28T14:46:00Z (10:46 AM EDT), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/f/history/, labelled real-time regular-session by the source. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-28T14:46:00Z: open 11.84, high_so_far 11.84, low_so_far 11.71, cumulative_volume 7566365. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event path: steady decline from 12.06 on 2026-09-30. Observed reaction: not applicable, because the event is upcoming; the quote is +0.1% from the prior close. Expected move after the current quote: +3.5% by the end of the window. Verified pre-event price: null. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated as avg_volume_20d times the mean 20-session close (about 12.1); market_cap_usd is 46.73B from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/f/market-cap/.
    Return: 4.09%; alpha: 4.25%.
  4. NOW — confidence 48%. Thesis: ServiceNow reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-28 (scheduled per TipRanks; the exact release time was not verified). The stock rallied about 15% from 134.01 on 2026-09-30 to 154.78 on 2026-10-27, and several brokers raised price targets in the past week, so the bar is higher into the print. I forecast a net decline if the reaction is merely in line. Facts: options imply about +/-10.36%; BofA raised its target to $180 from $150, Guggenheim to $175 from $125, and Truist to $180 from $130 (headlines on stockanalysis.com); the company previously guided Q3 subscription revenue to about 3.975-3.98B and cRPO growth of about 20%. Inference: the run-up and target raises mean a clean beat may already be priced in. Strongest counter-evidence: ServiceNow beat EPS by 18-38% in each of the last four quarters and beat revenue every time, and AI partnership news (Google Cloud, Nvidia) is supportive. Price/volume: the 5-day return is +3.50%, the last close of 154.78 sits just below the 20-session high of 159.50, and daily volume (about 13-17M) runs above the 20-day average, which is consistent with either continuation or exhaustion. Invalidation: an upside cRPO or guidance raise that lifts the stock through 159.50. Completed daily OHLCV (US Eastern sessions, split-adjusted, oldest to newest): 2026-10-21 O149.64 H153.98 L148.40 C153.12 V13065219 2026-10-22 O154.25 H157.60 L153.57 C157.00 V17406898 2026-10-23 O156.38 H159.50 L153.72 C158.96 V11100759 2026-10-26 O158.55 H159.30 L155.00 C158.18 V14739149 2026-10-27 O156.10 H157.13 L152.88 C154.78 V13481100 return_5d_pct=3.50 (close 2026-10-20 149.54). high_20d=159.50 low_20d=128.85 avg_volume_20d=11422749 (sessions 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-27). History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/ Intraday: latest_price=153.00, quote_time=2026-10-28T14:45:00Z (10:45 AM EDT), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/, labelled real-time regular-session by the source. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-28T14:45:00Z: open 151.60, high_so_far 155.15, low_so_far 151.13, cumulative_volume 5027913. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event path: up about 15% from 2026-09-30 to the 2026-10-26 peak area; the last two sessions are down. Observed reaction: not applicable, because the event is upcoming; the quote is -1.2% from the prior close. Expected move after the current quote: -5% by the end of the window. Verified pre-event price: null. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated as avg_volume_20d times the mean 20-session close (about 145); market_cap_usd is 158.18B from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/market-cap/.
    Return: -25.87%; alpha: 26.04%.
  5. MSFT — confidence 45%. Thesis: Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close on 2026-10-28 (confirmed by the company; webcast 5:30 p.m. ET). The stock has risen about 9% since mid-August and trades near the top of its 20-session range, with investor attention on Azure growth, AI spending and an employee buyout program. I lean slightly toward a decline if the reaction is muted, which is an inference with low confidence. Facts: options imply about +/-5.09%; consensus is about 4.82 EPS on 92.46B revenue (financecalendar.com, citing ChartMill); the Fed decision is at 2 p.m. ET today. Strongest counter-evidence: Microsoft has repeatedly beaten estimates, and stronger Azure growth or AI demand could lift the stock well above the current quote. The 5-day return is about -0.10% with no clear trend, and volume is below the 20-day average, so there is no confirmed continuation or exhaustion signal. Invalidation: Azure acceleration or raised guidance that pushes the stock through the 20-session high of 551.15, or a close above that level. Completed daily OHLCV (US Eastern sessions, split-adjusted, oldest to newest): 2026-10-21 O529.44 H533.28 L525.02 C532.95 V13940102 2026-10-22 O533.14 H533.60 L520.30 C521.08 V21266610 2026-10-23 O517.75 H525.77 L515.70 C524.51 V13681067 2026-10-26 O527.40 H533.25 L521.69 C532.60 V19021036 2026-10-27 O532.35 H534.70 L528.33 C531.33 V19532321 return_5d_pct=-0.10 (close 2026-10-20 531.87). high_20d=551.15 low_20d=510.31 avg_volume_20d=20075467 (sessions 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-27). History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/history/ Intraday: latest_price=529.12, quote_time=2026-10-28T14:47:00Z (10:47 AM EDT), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/history/, labelled real-time regular-session by the source. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-28T14:47:00Z: open 531.82, high_so_far 534.57, low_so_far 528.08, cumulative_volume 3885377. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event path: up from 512.90 on 2026-09-30 to 531.33 on 2026-10-27. Observed reaction: not applicable, because the event is upcoming; the quote is -0.4% from the prior close. Expected move after the current quote: -2.5% by the end of the window. Verified pre-event price: null. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is approximated as avg_volume_20d times the mean 20-session close (about 524); market_cap_usd is from the stockanalysis.com biggest-companies list (about 3.93T) at the time of the lookup.
    Return: -0.75%; alpha: 0.91%.

Full prediction and audit record

DeepSeek

DeepSeek: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

Event-driven session with mega-cap tech earnings after the close, post-earnings dispersion in data-center and solar names, and a live merger-arbitrage situation in Wendy's. I expect single-stock catalysts to dominate over the next 24 hours, with the strongest risk-adjusted setups in WEN's offer-price convergence, ENPH's guidance-driven downside continuation, and MSFT/GOOGL earnings anticipation. VRT has the strongest reported fundamental beat but also the clearest gap-fade risk, so it is ranked last.

  1. WEN — confidence 70%. Latest quote USD 7.01 at 2026-10-28T10:44:49-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WEN/history/); reference_price 7.01 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 6.46 H 6.48 L 6.20 C 6.28 V 5,494,300; 2026-10-22 O 6.29 H 6.59 L 6.26 C 6.57 V 5,181,000; 2026-10-23 O 6.46 H 6.46 L 6.14 C 6.22 V 4,940,400; 2026-10-26 O 6.18 H 6.34 L 6.00 C 6.19 V 5,712,400; 2026-10-27 O 6.20 H 6.20 L 6.04 C 6.14 V 5,133,400. return_5d_pct = -5.83%; high_20d 6.82; low_20d 5.94; avg_volume_20d 5.25M shares. The catalyst is observed, not anticipated: Trian Fund Management filed a proposal to buy all Wendy's shares for USD 7.35 per share in cash, about a 20% premium to Tuesday's close, valuing the company near USD 1.4B (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-28/peltz-s-trian-offers-1-4-billion-for-wendy-s-wsj-reports). The stock jumped to a 7.20 intraday high and is now 7.01, still up 14.09% on the day but below the offer price. I expect the remaining move to be upward as the arbitrage spread compresses toward 7.35, though the fade from 7.20 shows the market is already discounting deal risk. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock has not traded at the offer price, implying financing, board acceptance, or regulatory uncertainty; a board rejection or a close below 6.80 would invalidate the convergence thesis. Partial session: open 7.01, high_so_far 7.20, low_so_far 6.97, cumulative_volume 18,882,184 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 1.337B at 7.01 and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 33.2M, both above the floors.
    Return: 0.72%; alpha: 0.88%.
  2. ENPH — confidence 65%. Latest quote USD 25.32 at 2026-10-28T10:46:58-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENPH/history/); reference_price 25.32 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 32.71 H 32.92 L 31.62 C 31.99 V 3,267,500; 2026-10-22 O 31.29 H 32.03 L 30.86 C 31.35 V 4,217,300; 2026-10-23 O 30.90 H 32.02 L 30.88 C 31.60 V 3,648,100; 2026-10-26 O 31.75 H 31.75 L 29.86 C 30.36 V 4,476,100; 2026-10-27 O 30.83 H 31.84 L 29.27 C 29.76 V 16,279,600. return_5d_pct = -7.66%; high_20d 33.90; low_20d 28.59; avg_volume_20d 5.29M shares. The catalyst is observed: Enphase reported Q3 revenue of USD 293.3M versus USD 305.2M expected, guided Q4 revenue to USD 225-255M against a USD 300.5M consensus, and the CEO said the company is 'not seeing any meaningful recovery in U.S. demand'; Oppenheimer and Roth downgraded the stock (Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/enphase-sinks-20-q4-guide-130601957.html). The stock opened at 23.89, made a low of 23.83, rallied to 25.95, and is now 25.32, still down 14.92% on the day. I expect the remaining move to be downward because the guidance cut implies material negative estimate revisions and the intraday bounce looks like short-covering rather than a fundamental reversal. The strongest counter-evidence is the strong intraday recovery from 23.83 to 25.95, which shows dip-buying and short-covering demand; a sustained move above 26.50 or a guidance revision would invalidate the down thesis. Partial session: open 23.89, high_so_far 25.95, low_so_far 23.83, cumulative_volume 13,438,003 as of 10:46 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 3.33B and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 166.9M, both above the floors.
    Return: -0.49%; alpha: 0.66%.
  3. MSFT — confidence 60%. Latest quote USD 529.39 at 2026-10-28T10:44:51-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/); reference_price 529.39 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 529.44 H 533.28 L 525.02 C 532.95 V 13,940,100; 2026-10-22 O 533.14 H 533.60 L 520.30 C 521.08 V 21,266,600; 2026-10-23 O 517.75 H 525.77 L 515.70 C 524.51 V 13,671,500; 2026-10-26 O 527.40 H 533.25 L 521.69 C 532.60 V 19,021,000; 2026-10-27 O 532.35 H 534.70 L 528.33 C 531.33 V 19,503,300. return_5d_pct = -0.10%; high_20d 551.15; low_20d 510.31; avg_volume_20d 20.07M shares. The catalyst is scheduled, not yet observed: Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the 2026-10-28 close, and options markets imply a roughly 5.09% earnings move. The pre-event price path is neutral-to-slightly-down, with the last three closes between 524.51 and 532.60 and 2026-10-27 volume slightly below the 20-day average, so positioning does not look stretched. I expect the remaining move after the current quote to be upward because Microsoft has a strong beat record and the stock has not broken down into the print; the main risk is a high bar for Azure growth and AI capex, which could turn the after-hours reaction negative. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock remains below the 20-day high of 551.15 and has not shown pre-earnings accumulation; a verified close below 520.30 would invalidate the up thesis. Partial session: open 532.20, high_so_far 534.57, low_so_far 528.08, cumulative_volume 3,907,447 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 3.95T and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 10.6B, both far above the floors.
    Return: -0.75%; alpha: -0.59%.
  4. GOOGL — confidence 58%. Latest quote USD 323.99 at 2026-10-28T10:44:29-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/); reference_price 323.99 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 336.98 H 337.27 L 330.38 C 334.76 V 29,165,500; 2026-10-22 O 330.46 H 331.43 L 322.00 C 324.22 V 27,748,100; 2026-10-23 O 321.15 H 324.53 L 320.18 C 320.21 V 17,569,600; 2026-10-26 O 320.89 H 321.48 L 316.60 C 316.80 V 23,991,800; 2026-10-27 O 317.00 H 323.88 L 316.86 C 320.58 V 28,527,400. return_5d_pct = -5.78%; high_20d 359.40; low_20d 316.86; avg_volume_20d 24.29M shares. The catalyst is scheduled, not yet observed: Alphabet reports Q3 2026 after the 2026-10-28 close, with consensus around USD 3.02-3.03 EPS and Google Cloud growth near 90%; the stock has beaten estimates for 14 straight quarters. The five-session decline from 334.76 to 320.58 has pushed the stock to the bottom of its 20-day range, which improves the odds of a relief bounce if the print is solid. I expect the remaining move to be upward because the stock is oversold into a high-probability beat and the 2026-10-28 session is already showing a modest recovery to 323.99; the main risk is that Cloud growth decelerates or AI capex guidance disappoints, which could reverse the bounce. The strongest counter-evidence is the persistent lower-high pattern since 2026-10-21 and the fact that a 14-quarter beat streak may already be priced; a close below 316.86 would invalidate the up thesis. Partial session: open 323.84, high_so_far 326.40, low_so_far 323.17, cumulative_volume 8,775,827 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 3.92T and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 8.27B, both far above the floors.
    Return: -11.99%; alpha: -11.83%.
  5. VRT — confidence 55%. Latest quote USD 236.61 at 2026-10-28T10:44:27-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRT/history/); reference_price 236.61 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 216.58 H 220.00 L 210.94 C 212.15 V 6,412,200; 2026-10-22 O 203.61 H 204.00 L 193.14 C 195.59 V 8,434,200; 2026-10-23 O 191.60 H 196.73 L 187.24 C 194.32 V 7,398,300; 2026-10-26 O 197.63 H 201.68 L 194.55 C 199.78 V 5,530,500; 2026-10-27 O 203.00 H 210.92 L 203.00 C 208.56 V 8,407,800. return_5d_pct = +2.46%; high_20d 258.10; low_20d 187.24; avg_volume_20d 5.87M shares. The catalyst is observed: Vertiv reported Q3 FY12/26 revenue of USD 4.313B, up 61% year over year and well above its own guide, adjusted EPS of USD 2.21, organic orders up more than 100%, and raised full-year revenue guidance by USD 650M (Cestrian Capital Research, https://www.cestriancapitalresearch.com/vertiv-vrt-stock-rating-accumulate-329-price-target-after-q3-fy12-26-earnings/). The stock opened at 243.00, printed a high of 241.55 as reported, fell to 228.82, and is now 236.61, still up 13.45% on the day but below the open. I expect a further upward move over the remaining window because the fundamental beat and guidance raise are large enough to drive estimate revisions, and the post-open fade has not broken the gap. The strongest counter-evidence is the clear gap-and-fade pattern from 243.00 to 236.61, which signals profit-taking and could continue; a break below 228.82 would invalidate the up thesis. Partial session: open 243.00, high_so_far 241.55, low_so_far 228.82, cumulative_volume 7,864,061 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 80.35B and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 1.30B, both above the floors.
    Return: 5.25%; alpha: 5.42%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Event Gaps: each model's average alpha vs SPY over SPY across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg picks with positive alphaAvg alpha vs SPY
Grok 4.7353.33%+0.81%
ChatGPT160.00%+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro1353.85%+0.37%
Claude Opus 5.5646.67%+0.36%
Gemini 3.6 Flash160.00%+0.29%
GPT-61742.35%+0.21%
Grok 4.51945.26%-0.02%
Grok 4140.00%-0.09%
DeepSeek2451.04%-0.19%
Perplexity2247.27%-0.23%
Claude Opus 5140.00%-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro656.67%-0.31%
Muse Spark 1.12446.67%-0.35%
Claude Sonnet 5.51240.00%-0.81%
GPT-5.6 Sol740.00%-1.42%
Meta AI - Muse Spark140.00%-1.84%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High140.00%-2.26%
Kimi120.00%-5.18%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
AAPL344.81000000349.37500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/
AMZN252.96470000246.58000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/
CAT709.03500000657.50500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAT/history/
CMG28.7750000030.77500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMG/history/
ENPH25.3450000025.22000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENPH/history/
F11.7450000012.22500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/history/
GOOGL323.87000000285.03000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/
LLY1294.840000001382.38000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/history/
META613.04000000624.16500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/
MSFT529.37000000525.40000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/
NOW153.16500000113.54000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW/history/
SPY770.42000000769.15000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
VRT236.69000000249.12000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRT/history/
WEN6.985000007.03500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WEN/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 293c0818a8952e26d41e7181dbe29020a662fe043acbaa221d6e8c620baec3b1. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.

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