Asked Oct 28, 12:25 PM EDT (midday). Gemini 3.6 Flash High, Perplexity, Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 28, 12:25 PM EDT to Oct 29, 12:25 PM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | 2/5 | 40.00% | -1.46% | -0.25% | -1.21% |
| Perplexity | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.00% | -0.25% | 0.24% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -3.15% | -0.25% | -2.90% |
| GPT-6 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.39% | -0.25% | 0.63% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.60% | -0.25% | 0.84% |
| DeepSeek | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.49% | -0.25% | 0.74% |
Gemini 3.6 Flash High
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U.S. equity markets exhibit sector dispersion driven by Q3 earnings releases and strong demand in AI infrastructure. Key semiconductor and power/cooling hardware leaders are positioned for positive relative momentum against SPY over the 1-session horizon.
- VRT — confidence 85.0000%. Thesis: Vertiv reported strong Q3 earnings beating consensus on EPS and revenue while significantly raising full-year revenue and organic growth guidance driven by accelerating AI data center power and thermal management demand. Intraday price momentum provides strong tailwinds relative to SPY. Risks: Broader market intraday volatility or profit-taking following a sharp post-earnings spike.
Return: 6.02%; alpha: 6.27%. - AMD — confidence 78.0000%. Thesis: Positive executive updates regarding server GPU sales and AI hardware market share gains continue to drive institutional buying support. AMD shows strong intraday relative strength over the broader index. Risks: Sector-wide semiconductor profit-taking or macroeconomic headline headwinds.
Return: 0.55%; alpha: 0.79%. - GOOGL — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Alphabet exhibits resilient price action with steady gains supported by cloud growth and digital advertising revenue stability, outperforming SPY in regular session trading. Risks: Broader mega-cap tech pullbacks or regulatory headlines.
Return: -12.08%; alpha: -11.83%. - TSM — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: TSMC benefits from robust advanced-node foundry demand across major chipmakers, showing consistent positive momentum and institutional accumulation. Risks: Geopolitical news sentiment or broader tech sector pullbacks.
Return: -1.16%; alpha: -0.91%. - MSFT — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft demonstrates solid baseline performance ahead of its scheduled fiscal first-quarter earnings release, with cloud adoption and Copilot ecosystem monetization providing catalyst potential. Risks: Pre-earnings positioning fluctuations and broader market chop.
Return: -0.63%; alpha: -0.39%.
Perplexity
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Equities are in a risk-on but event-heavy session: AI/semiconductor momentum is strong after SK Hynix's results and Broadcom's AI financing news, while the Fed decision and Microsoft/Alphabet earnings create late-session binary risk. The highest-conviction one-day tilt is toward semiconductor and AI-infrastructure exposure, with a diversified mix of memory, AI accelerators, foundry, and a semiconductor ETF.
- MU — confidence 68.0000%. Micron is the most direct U.S.-listed beneficiary of SK Hynix's blowout memory results and its view that memory demand should exceed supply through 2030. It was already up more than 4% intraday, showing relative strength versus SPY. The latest quote found was a 15-minute-delayed intraday price of $970.98 at 10:17:43 AM EDT on 2026-10-28. Risks: the move may already price in the memory-news catalyst, and a hawkish Fed surprise or weak Microsoft/Alphabet AI-capex commentary could trigger a sharp reversal.
Return: -2.93%; alpha: -2.68%. - AVGO — confidence 63.0000%. Broadcom has a fresh idiosyncratic catalyst from the reported $63 billion financing structure supporting Anthropic purchases of its custom AI accelerators and networking equipment, plus positive analyst sentiment. It is a higher-quality way to express the AI buildout than more leveraged neocloud names. The latest quote found was an intraday price of $346.68 on 2026-10-28. Risks: valuation is elevated, the stock has already rallied 4% the prior session, and AI-financing concerns could resurface quickly.
Return: -0.81%; alpha: -0.57%. - SMH — confidence 60.0000%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF provides diversified exposure to the strongest current market theme: semiconductors and AI hardware. The PHLX Semiconductor Index had gained 6.5% for the week, and SMH was trading near $563.36 intraday, up about 1%. The latest quote found was a real-time intraday price of $563.36 at 10:59 AM EDT on 2026-10-28. Risks: concentration in a few mega-cap chip names, potential profit-taking after several strong sessions, and sensitivity to the Fed decision.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.26%. - TSM — confidence 57.0000%. TSMC is a diversified AI-compute beneficiary with leading foundry positioning and less single-customer earnings risk than many AI-infrastructure names. It participated in the chip rally and was holding modest gains intraday. The latest quote found was a real-time intraday price of $438.10 at 12:10 PM EDT on 2026-10-28. Risks: geopolitical Taiwan risk, currency effects, and a less explosive short-term catalyst than memory or custom-accelerator names.
Return: -1.16%; alpha: -0.91%. - CRWV — confidence 52.0000%. CoreWeave offers the highest beta to a continuation of the AI-infrastructure rebound after rising 7.94% on Tuesday and holding gains intraday. Its Copenhagen data-center launch and global network-expansion news support the momentum case. The latest quote found was a real-time intraday price of $60.53 at 11:38:15 AM EDT on 2026-10-28. Risks: high leverage, extreme volatility, and vulnerability to any negative Microsoft or Alphabet commentary on AI spending or borrowing costs.
Return: 5.40%; alpha: 5.64%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
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Cautiously constructive with elevated event risk. On Oct 27 the S&P 500 closed at 7,722.60 (+0.60%) and SPY at 769.71, led by an AI and semiconductor rally after Anthropic's IPO filing, with oil easing. Today the Fed decides at 2 pm ET (a hold is priced in), and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, which is inside the forecast window. Breadth is thin, with the equal-weight index barely up and Nasdaq new lows outnumbering new highs. The picks lean toward AI-capex beneficiaries that can outperform SPY if the hyperscaler capex and cloud commentary is strong. The main risk is a tech selloff on a Fed surprise or a capex or Azure disappointment.
- NVDA — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: Nvidia lagged the Oct 27 chip rally (+0.90% versus +3.60% for the semiconductor index) and is about 10% below its Oct 6 record close, so it has room to catch up. Microsoft and Alphabet capex commentary after the close is a direct read-through to Nvidia's revenue line, and the Anthropic filing showed large GPU-based compute commitments. Risks: a Fed surprise, a capex disappointment or a cut to AI spending guidance, and a sharp AI-sector reversal like the Oct 22 Nasdaq drop of about 2.6%. Price check: reference_price is the Oct 27 regular-session close of 217.94, not a live intraday quote.
Return: -1.69%; alpha: -1.45%. - GOOGL — confidence 52.0000%. Thesis: Alphabet reports after the close today. Consensus expects about 25% revenue growth to roughly $128B and Google Cloud up about 90% to $29.1B. The stock was hit hard by the recent AI selloff and sits roughly 20% below its high, so a good print and capex story could drive a sharp rebound. Anthropic's filing also shows heavy use of Google TPUs, which supports the cloud demand narrative. Risks: the earnings reaction can be negative even on a beat (the options-implied move is about 6%), and capex or search-competition worries could weigh on it. Price check: I could not confirm a reliable current quote for GOOGL, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -12.08%; alpha: -11.83%. - MSFT — confidence 50.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft reports after the close today. Expectations are for revenue growth of about 16.7% to $90.6B and Azure growth near 44.8%, with early Copilot feedback in focus. The stock is up about 50% since its June low and Microsoft has been managing costs, including buyout offers to 60,000 employees. Risks: the stock has run up into the print, and reactions have often been negative even on beats. A capex or Azure miss, or hawkish Fed commentary, could pull it below SPY. Price check: reference_price is the roughly Oct 27 session quote of 531.33 shown on a market page, with after-market near 532.65, not a verified intraday quote.
Return: -0.63%; alpha: -0.39%. - AVGO — confidence 48.0000%. Thesis: Broadcom rose 4.0% on Oct 27 and was flagged as the biggest winner from Anthropic's IPO filing, with Anthropic expected to be its largest compute customer in 2027. Momentum in AI chips is positive, and strong hyperscaler capex tonight would extend it. Risks: after a 4% jump it is extended and prone to profit-taking if capex commentary disappoints or the Fed is hawkish, and its beta is higher than SPY's. Price check: I could not confirm a reliable current quote for AVGO, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -0.81%; alpha: -0.57%. - SMH — confidence 45.0000%. Thesis: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF gives diversified exposure to the chip rally. The semiconductor index rose 3.60% on Oct 27, its third straight gain, helped by AMD (+5.45%), Broadcom (+4.0%) and Micron (+2.77%), and the Anthropic filing points to large compute spending. Risks: it overlaps with the NVDA and AVGO picks, it is a high-beta fund that could fall hard if AI sentiment reverses on the Fed or on tonight's earnings, and KLA also reports after the close. Price check: the most recent quote I could find is the Oct 23 close of 528.03, which is stale and not an intraday price.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.26%.
GPT-6
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Cautiously bullish on AI infrastructure, memory semiconductors, and semiconductor equipment relative to SPY over the specified one-trading-session window ending October 29, 2026 at 16:25 UTC. SPY was trading near $771.04, up approximately 0.18% on October 28, while selected semiconductor and infrastructure companies showed substantially stronger relative momentum. SK Hynix's exceptionally strong quarterly results reinforce the thesis of persistent AI-driven memory shortages, while Vertiv's earnings demonstrate accelerating investment in data-center power and cooling infrastructure. Broadcom's recently announced $63 billion Anthropic-related AI financing arrangement provides another sector catalyst. The five selections emphasize companies with identifiable fundamental catalysts rather than relying exclusively on broad-market appreciation. Major risks include the October 28 Federal Reserve policy announcement, subsequent interest-rate commentary, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the market close, and October 29 economic releases. Disappointing hyperscaler capital-expenditure guidance or unexpectedly hawkish monetary policy could reverse the semiconductor rally. The portfolio is equally weighted at 20% per selection. Confidence estimates concern relative outperformance over the specified window, not the probability of a positive absolute return. All reference prices are observed October 28 intraday quotes rather than predicted prices or prices assumed at the beginning of the evaluation window.
- VRT — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Vertiv has one of the strongest directly verified earnings catalysts of the session. Its October 28 third-quarter results showed revenue growth of 61% year over year to $4.31 billion, organic orders growth exceeding 100%, and adjusted EPS growth of 78%. Management raised full-year guidance, providing evidence that demand for data-center power distribution, cooling, and critical infrastructure is accelerating. These results support the possibility of further upward earnings revisions and institutional buying. The stock traded at $237.58 in a real-time intraday quote on October 28, approximately 13.91% above its previous close. Despite the substantial initial reaction, the magnitude of the guidance improvement could sustain relative strength into the next session, particularly if Microsoft and Alphabet reaffirm elevated AI capital expenditures. Risks: Much of the earnings surprise may already be reflected in the stock price. The observed quote was below the session opening price of $243.00, indicating some profit-taking. Further selling, expensive valuation, a hawkish Fed announcement, or weaker hyperscaler spending commentary could outweigh the positive fundamentals. Source research: Vertiv's October 28 earnings release and contemporaneous market coverage.
Return: 6.02%; alpha: 6.27%. - MU — confidence 66.0000%. Thesis: Micron is a direct beneficiary of the exceptionally strong memory-chip pricing and demand environment highlighted by SK Hynix's October 28 results. SK Hynix reported quarterly revenue of approximately KRW 104.62 trillion and operating-profit growth exceeding 600% year over year, reinforcing expectations of constrained DRAM and high-bandwidth-memory supply. Reported long-term customer commitments and continued AI infrastructure investment support the possibility of sustained pricing power across the memory industry. Micron was trading at $971.60 in an October 28 real-time intraday quote, up 4.61% from its previous close. The combination of positive industry read-through, strong relative momentum, and potential upward earnings revisions supports an above-benchmark return hypothesis. Risks: The stock has already appreciated substantially, making it vulnerable to profit-taking. Micron's product mix, contracts, and execution differ from those of SK Hynix, so the competitor's earnings cannot be translated directly into Micron's future results. Chinese memory competition, a reversal in semiconductor sentiment, and disappointing hyperscaler spending guidance remain significant downside risks. Source research: October 28 SK Hynix earnings coverage from Reuters and TipRanks.
Return: -2.93%; alpha: -2.68%. - LRCX — confidence 64.0000%. Thesis: Lam Research offers an indirect but compelling way to capture expanding memory semiconductor investment. SK Hynix's exceptionally strong earnings, reported memory shortages, and expectations of sustained high-bandwidth-memory demand increase the likelihood that memory manufacturers will continue investing in advanced fabrication equipment. Lam supplies critical deposition and etching technologies used in semiconductor manufacturing, making it a potential beneficiary of higher manufacturing complexity and capacity investment. The stock was trading at $253.59 in an October 28 real-time intraday quote, up 5.29% from the previous close. Its strong intraday performance relative to SPY suggests renewed investor interest following recent weakness in semiconductor-equipment shares. Risks: Capacity investment may not accelerate as quickly as memory pricing or profits, and higher chipmaker earnings do not automatically imply immediate equipment orders. Export controls, customer capital-expenditure delays, elevated equipment valuations, and the possibility of a semiconductor-sector reversal could produce underperformance. Source research: Reuters coverage of SK Hynix's results, October 28 semiconductor-sector reporting, and Lam Research market data.
Return: 1.10%; alpha: 1.35%. - SNDK — confidence 61.0000%. Thesis: Sandisk provides exposure to the recovery in NAND flash pricing and rising demand for high-performance data storage. SK Hynix's strong earnings support the broader memory supply-demand narrative, while recent storage-industry commentary points to substantial long-term AI and data-center demand. Sandisk was trading at $1,380.07 in an October 28 intraday quote, approximately 5.77% above its previous close, demonstrating stronger momentum than SPY. Its scheduled October 29 earnings announcement may also support anticipatory positioning ahead of the report. The specified forecast window ends before that day's regular-session close, so the thesis does not rely on Sandisk's future earnings results being available within the evaluation period. Risks: DRAM and NAND have different supply-demand dynamics, and SK Hynix's results do not guarantee equivalent financial strength for Sandisk. The stock is highly volatile and has already experienced a substantial rally. Profit-taking before earnings, unfavorable sector commentary, or deteriorating market risk appetite could reverse the advance. The latest accessible quote was an intraday observation rather than the previous session's closing price. Source research: October 28 memory-sector reporting and Sandisk's published earnings schedule.
Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.20%. - AVGO — confidence 60.0000%. Thesis: Broadcom benefits from a newly announced $63 billion financing structure supporting Anthropic's deployment of AI compute infrastructure using Broadcom accelerators and networking technology. The October 26 announcement provides a tangible catalyst demonstrating institutional financing support for large-scale AI infrastructure purchases, with expected equipment deliveries beginning in 2027. The stock gained approximately 4% in the previous session and remained positive on October 28, trading at $346.93 in a real-time intraday quote, up 1.34% from the previous close. Continued positive interpretation of the financing arrangement, together with favorable AI spending commentary from major cloud providers, could support further relative outperformance. Risks: The financing announcement is not equivalent to immediately recognized revenue, and Broadcom provides residual-value support that introduces financial exposure. Concerns about AI infrastructure financing structures, customer concentration, future profitability, or weaker-than-expected hyperscaler capital expenditures could reverse the recent gains. The stock also faces broad technology-sector sensitivity to the Federal Reserve announcement and major after-hours earnings releases. Source research: Broadcom's October 26 official financing announcement and October 27-28 market coverage.
Return: -0.81%; alpha: -0.57%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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SPY trading ~771.6 up 0.25% intraday Oct 28 with narrow 0.3% range ahead of FOMC decision at 2pm ET expected 94-95% hold. Major catalysts are MSFT and GOOGL reporting after close Oct 28 and Fed guidance. Tech led early gains Oct 28 while market awaits earnings. If Fed holds dovish, growth and AI infrastructure should outperform SPY over next session; earnings beats today already driving momentum in VRT, AXGN, HRI.
- MSFT — confidence 74.0000%. Thesis: Reports Q1 FY27 after close Oct 28. 【entity-Azure¦canonical_name=Azure】 growth and AI deals are key drivers; stock recently pushed above $4T market cap with intraday high near $553 and 【entity-Scotiabank¦canonical_name=Scotiabank】 raised target to $625 citing sector outperform. Up 1.5% Oct 26 on upgrade. Fed hold 94% favors long-duration tech. Positioned for beat and positive guidance to drive Oct 29 open outperformance vs SPY. Price is delayed intraday quote Oct 28 from finnhub. Risks: High expectations priced, any miss on 【entity-Azure¦canonical_name=Azure】 or margin could cause sharp reversal; hawkish Fed surprise with 10Y near 4.995% would pressure valuation; correlation with SPY 0.69 limits relative alpha if broad market sells off.
Return: -0.63%; alpha: -0.39%. - GOOGL — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Also reports after close Oct 28 with GOOG. Down 5.61% 1-month, trading 20.8% below May high 408.61, P/E 15.93 attractive vs peers, beta 1.21. Cloud and search resilience expected; oversold setup gives more upside into earnings. Options market pricing move. If beats, likely to outperform SPY on Oct 29 morning session included in window to 12:25 ET. Price is delayed intraday quote Oct 28 from finnhub. Risks: Regulatory and AI search disruption concerns; miss on ad revenue or Cloud could cause underperformance; Fed decision volatility could lift SPY more defensively.
Return: -12.08%; alpha: -11.83%. - VRT — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Reported Q3 Oct 28 before open: EPS $2.21 vs $1.82 consensus beat by $0.39, revenue $4.313B up 61% YoY beating estimates, raised 2026 guidance by $650M, organic orders more than doubled. AI data center power and cooling demand directly benefits. Stock up 13.94% intraday to 237.63, second major post-earnings melt-up in 2026 per Schaeffers, analyst PT $329. Momentum likely to carry into next session vs flat SPY. Price is delayed intraday quote Oct 28 from finnhub. Risks: High beta 2.12 and 52-week high 379.93 leaves room for profit taking; valuation P/E 44.9; if Fed signals hike risk for December 75% odds, capex cyclicals could fade.
Return: 6.02%; alpha: 6.27%. - AXGN — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Reported Q3 Oct 28 before open, beat and raised 2026 revenue guidance. Breast segment revenue surged over 50% YoY driving accelerated growth. Stock up 28.07% intraday to 47.975 with 5-day return 36.14% and 1-year 165%. Small-cap biotech guidance raises often see follow-through next day as coverage revises. Low float and high short interest can amplify outperformance vs SPY. Price is delayed intraday quote Oct 28 from finnhub. Risks: Small cap $2.23B, high volatility, already extended 9.2% above trading range; any reversal in biotech sentiment or broader risk-off after Fed could underperform SPY.
Return: 5.67%; alpha: 5.92%. - HRI — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Reported Q3 Oct 27 before open: EPS $3.91 vs $2.92 consensus, surprise +26.95%, revenue $1.36B up 4.6% YoY above $1.35B estimate, raised guidance. Equipment rental levered to non-residential construction and infrastructure. Stock jumped 22.72% Oct 27 and continued +5.72% intraday Oct 28 to $164.99 showing two-day momentum into Fed decision. Benefits if Fed holds steady at 4% as expected, supporting construction demand. Price is intraday quote Oct 28 from MarketBeat. Risks: High leverage concerns noted by Simply Wall St, cyclical exposure to rates; if Fed hints December hike 75% odds, industrials could lag; large move already may be faded.
Return: 4.00%; alpha: 4.25%.
DeepSeek
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US equities are mixed ahead of the 2 p.m. ET Fed decision and after-the-bell Big Tech earnings. The S&P 500 is marginally higher while the Nasdaq lags, but memory and storage chips are sharply outperforming after SK Hynix reported record quarterly profit and said memory is sold out through 2029. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00% with a hawkish tone, which keeps macro risk elevated, but idiosyncratic earnings winners and the semiconductor supply-cycle trade should continue to attract flow over the next session.
- MU — confidence 76.0000%. Micron is the clearest US-listed beneficiary of SK Hynix's record Q3 results and commentary that memory is sold out through 2029. The stock is up about 4.7% intraday on heavy volume, yet trades at roughly 13x trailing earnings, leaving room for multiple expansion as AI-driven DRAM/HBM demand extends the upcycle. Risks include a hawkish Fed surprise that pressures high-beta semis, memory price volatility, and the possibility that the SK Hynix read-through is already largely priced in after the premarket gap.
Return: -2.93%; alpha: -2.68%. - VRT — confidence 70.0000%. Vertiv delivered a blowout Q3 with revenue up 61%, organic orders more than doubling, and a raised full-year adjusted EPS guide of $7.10-$7.20 versus the $6.74 consensus. The stock is up about 14% intraday and remains deeply undervalued relative to the $333 average analyst target, but it is testing resistance near $242, where prior buyers may look to exit at breakeven. A clean break above that level would confirm the earnings-driven re-rating; failure to hold could trigger a sharp reversal. Fed hawkishness is an additional risk given the stock's high valuation.
Return: 6.02%; alpha: 6.27%. - WDC — confidence 65.0000%. Western Digital is riding the same memory/storage supply-cycle wave and was added to the Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy list on October 28. The stock is up about 3.4% intraday, trades at roughly 15x trailing earnings, and has a forward P/E near 16x, which is reasonable for a company benefiting from AI-driven data storage demand. Risks include sector-wide profit-taking after the recent run, a hawkish Fed hitting high-beta tech, and the stock's high correlation to memory pricing headlines.
Return: 1.34%; alpha: 1.58%. - SNDK — confidence 60.0000%. SanDisk is a pure-play memory name surging about 5.6% intraday on the SK Hynix read-through, with a forward P/E near 6.4x that leaves significant valuation cushion. The stock has been volatile but is showing strong relative strength versus SPY. Its earnings date is October 29, but the report is expected after the close, outside the 1-session window, so the main risk is pre-earnings positioning and profit-taking rather than the event itself. A hawkish Fed or a sudden reversal in memory sentiment would pressure the shares.
Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.20%. - SMH — confidence 58.0000%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF offers diversified exposure to the chip rally without single-stock earnings risk. It is up about 1.3% intraday, already outpacing SPY, and its top holdings include memory and AI infrastructure names benefiting from the SK Hynix supply-cycle signal. As an ETF, it carries lower idiosyncratic risk than MU, WDC, or SNDK, making it a relatively stable way to express the semiconductor outperformance theme. Risks include sector concentration, a hawkish Fed pressuring high-multiple tech, and the possibility that the rally fades after the initial SK Hynix-driven gap.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.26%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 3 | 60.00% | +1.03% |
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 9 | 48.89% | +0.01% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.05% |
| GPT-6 | 17 | 32.94% | -0.07% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | 41.43% | -0.16% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 5 | 32.00% | -0.22% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | 2 | 60.00% | -0.28% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 26 | 43.08% | -0.29% |
| Grok 4.5 | 21 | 42.86% | -0.32% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| Perplexity | 13 | 38.46% | -0.46% |
| DeepSeek | 26 | 46.15% | -0.48% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 6 | 36.67% | -0.63% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 1 | 60.00% | -0.78% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 0.00% | -2.53% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 567.41000000 | 570.50790000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| AVGO | 346.98500000 | 344.16000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/ | |
| AXGN | 47.86500000 | 50.58000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AXGN/history/ | |
| CRWV | 60.26500000 | 63.51690000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 323.71000000 | 284.60500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| HRI | 164.96000000 | 171.56500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HRI/history/ | |
| LRCX | 253.86000000 | 256.66000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/ | |
| MSFT | 527.93000000 | 524.58500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 971.36000000 | 942.88000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NVDA | 216.85000000 | 213.17500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| SMH | 564.67000000 | 561.78000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMH/history/ | |
| SNDK | 1379.30400000 | 1359.33000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDK/history/ | |
| SPY | 770.96000000 | 769.05000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSM | 438.29000000 | 433.20410000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/ | |
| VRT | 237.62000000 | 251.93000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRT/history/ | |
| WDC | 393.39000000 | 398.64500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 cced7418b1135f4c8d115ca63d2c6447914502f72b27bf5023aa6807f5079f0b. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.