Asked Oct 29, 10:12 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 29, 10:12 AM EDT to Oct 30, 10:12 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | 5/5 | 100.00% | 7.90% | -1.23% | 9.13% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -4.56% | -1.23% | -3.33% |
| DeepSeek | 4/5 | 80.00% | 5.85% | -1.23% | 7.08% |
Perplexity
View full picks and reasoning
The one-session outlook is event-driven and dispersion-heavy: Amazon and Intel report after Thursday's close, while Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, and DoorDash have already released material results or deal news. Alphabet's revenue miss and negative free cash flow have revived scrutiny of AI capital spending, creating downside sensitivity for Amazon and Intel even where company-specific results may be solid. I favor continued downside continuation in Caterpillar after its sharp earnings-driven gap lower, upside continuation in DoorDash after its earnings beat and Instacart acquisition, and a modest upside follow-through in Eli Lilly after its beat; Amazon and Intel are binary earnings positions with wide two-sided risk.
- AMZN — confidence 58%. Amazon is the highest-conviction binary catalyst: its Q3 2026 results are officially scheduled for after Thursday's close, with investors focused on AWS growth, AI capacity constraints, margins, and free cash flow. The verified pre-event context is cautious: Alphabet's late-Wednesday report showed negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion and sent its shares down about 10-11%, pressuring AI-infrastructure names and Nasdaq futures; Amazon's premarket quote was $250.83, down 1.48% from the $253.10 prior close. The latest completed daily close was $254.60 on 2026-10-28; the forecast is made from the most recent verifiable premarket quote, not the prior close. I expect a modest downward move into and after the report because the market is now demanding cash-flow proof for AI spending, but this is an uncertain expectation rather than an observed post-earnings outcome; a strong AWS print or disciplined capex commentary could invalidate it quickly. Strongest counter-evidence: Microsoft's Azure revenue grew 48% and its shares rose, showing that cloud strength can still be rewarded. Verified price level: a break below the premarket low near $250 would support the bearish continuation; recovery above $254.60 would weaken it. Historical five-session OHLC, 20-session high/low, average share volume, and 20-day dollar volume could not be verified from the available sources, so those figures are null; the stock passes the stated price and market-cap screens based on the verified $254.60 close and $2.75 trillion market capitalization, but the $20 million dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $250.83 at 2026-10-29T05:14:00-04:00, premarket, from stockanalysis.com.
Return: -3.51%; alpha: 4.74%. - INTC — confidence 55%. Intel reports Q3 2026 results after Thursday's close, making it a high-volatility, two-sided event. The stock closed at $95.53 on 2026-10-28, then traded at $92.43 in premarket, down 3.25%, as Alphabet's disappointing results and AI-capex concerns hit semiconductor sentiment; this is an observed pre-event reaction, not an earnings reaction. Consensus cited in pre-earnings coverage was EPS of $0.40, and options coverage suggested traders expected a sizable move, but the eventual result is unknown. I lean down because Intel enters the print after a major 2026 rally, carries high valuation risk, and the sector narrative has turned toward demanding returns on AI investment; however, the recent Classiq acquisition and Oracle collaboration are positive company-specific news that could support an upside surprise. Strongest counter-evidence: Intel rose 1.91% on Wednesday and had substantial trading interest, indicating buyers remained active before the report. Invalidation would be a post-earnings guide or foundry/data-center update that restores confidence in AI-related demand. Verified price level: $92.43 premarket is the near-term reference; a move below it after the report would confirm downside, while a reclaim of $95.53 would invalidate the bearish view. Five-session OHLC, 20-session range, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume were not verifiable from available sources and are null; market cap was verified at $501.96 billion, but the $20 million liquidity floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $92.43 at 2026-10-29T08:33:00-04:00, premarket, from stockanalysis.com.
Return: -28.85%; alpha: 30.08%. - CAT — confidence 62%. Caterpillar reported Q3 2026 results before Thursday's open: adjusted EPS of $7.20 beat the $7.03 consensus and revenue of $20.7 billion was roughly in line, but the market focused on softer-than-hoped sales momentum, Q4 construction volume expected down modestly year over year, and about $2.2 billion of full-year tariff costs. The observed reaction is a severe gap down: the stock traded at $646.66 at 9:38 AM EDT, down 9.35% from the $713.38 prior close, with a session low of $631.62. This is a continuation setup rather than a rebound thesis: the gap broke far below the prior session and the early tape shows persistent selling, while management commentary about strong orders, record backlog, and data-center demand is the principal counter-evidence. I expect further downside over the remaining session as investors digest the guidance and as analysts revise estimates, though an oversold intraday bounce is possible. Invalidation would be a sustained recovery above the $670-680 area, which would suggest the initial gap is being aggressively bought. Five-session OHLC, 20-session high/low, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume could not be verified and are null; the verified $646.66 quote and $297.25 billion market cap satisfy the price and market-cap screens, while the dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $646.66 at 2026-10-29T09:38:00-04:00, live market-open quote, from stockanalysis.com.
Return: -2.71%; alpha: 3.94%. - DASH — confidence 60%. DoorDash reported Q3 2026 results and simultaneously announced a definitive agreement to acquire Instacart for $65.00 per share, approximately $17 billion. The reported quarter beat expectations: EPS of $1.06 versus an $0.81 consensus, revenue of $4.616 billion versus $4.56 billion expected, with total orders up 28% and marketplace GOV up 36% year over year. The stock traded at $179.51 at 10:06 AM EDT, up 5.91% from the $169.49 prior close, after opening at $179.13; this is an observed reaction to the earnings-and-M&A package. I expect additional upside over the remaining session if investors continue to reward the strategic grocery expansion and the stated $500 million annual net-synergy target, although integration spending and a long expected closing timeline are risks. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $268.00, and antitrust or integration concerns could cap the move. Invalidation would be a reversal below the $172.23 session low, which would indicate the initial pop is being sold. Five-session OHLC, 20-session range, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume were not verifiable and are null; the verified $179.51 quote and $77.78 billion market cap satisfy price and market-cap screens, but the dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $179.51 at 2026-10-29T10:06:00-04:00, live market-open quote, from stockanalysis.com.
Return: 1.64%; alpha: 2.86%. - LLY — confidence 56%. Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 results before Thursday's open: adjusted EPS of $7.48 beat the $6.26 consensus and revenue of $24.4 billion exceeded the $22.61 billion expectation, according to CNBC's premarket coverage. Separately, Lilly announced positive head-to-head TRANSCEND-T2D-2 data for retatrutide versus injectable Ozempic, reporting greater A1C reduction and roughly double the weight loss. The stock traded at $1,311.50 after hours on 2026-10-28, up 1.80% from the $1,288.30 regular-session close, and CNBC reported shares about 4% higher premarket; the latest directly verified quote available in the source snapshot was the after-hours $1,311.50. I expect modest upside continuation as the earnings beat and retatrutide data reinforce the obesity/diabetes growth narrative, but much of the news may already be priced in after the stock approached its $1,321.21 52-week high. Strongest counter-evidence: the move is relatively small for the size of the beat, suggesting high expectations and potential profit-taking. Invalidation would be a reversal below the prior close of $1,288.30 during the regular session. Five-session OHLC, 20-session high/low, average volume, and 20-day dollar volume were not verifiable and are null; the verified $1,288.30 close and $1.15 trillion market cap satisfy price and market-cap screens, while the dollar-volume floor could not be independently verified. Latest quote: $1,311.50 at 2026-10-28T19:59:00-04:00, after hours, from stockanalysis.com; a fresher regular-session quote could not be verified at answering time.
Return: 2.77%; alpha: 4.00%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
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Tech sentiment is fragile this morning. Alphabet missed on EPS, ServiceNow and Fortinet gapped down on guidance, and Nasdaq futures were weak in pre-market trading, while Microsoft rose on strong cloud results. All five picks report after the close today (Oct 29), so the whole scored window contains the event and the gap should arrive at the start of the Oct 30 session. Directions are low-conviction calls on expectations versus reported results: names that rallied into the print and have a history of selling off (RBLX, SBUX) are leaned short, and names that sold off into the print (AMZN, SNDK, INTC) are leaned long. Quotes were taken between 10:18 and 10:21 ET, a few minutes after the 10:12 ET window start, so the move elapsed since the start of the window cannot be separated and is null.
- RBLX — confidence 55%. Thesis: Roblox reports Q3 after the close today and looks set to reverse part of a sharp run-up. The stock rose from 43.00 (Oct 1 close) to 54.27, about +26%, while the average analyst price target is 50.12, below the quote. Sources show three prior earnings reactions of about -15.5% (Oct 2025), about -18% (May 2026) and -26.9% (Jul 31, 2026), each driven by bookings and guidance. Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close (about 4:05 PM ET per Earnings Whispers); consensus EPS is about -0.39 to -0.41 and revenue about 1.85B; an options-implied move of about +/-13.4% was published on Oct 6, so it is stale. Inference: the pre-print rally and recent target raises (BTIG, Wedbush, JPMorgan) leave less room for a positive surprise, and a short-seller report on safety and slowing growth is circulating. Strongest counter-evidence: Roth Capital says trends are improving and RBLX beat EPS in 7 of the last 8 quarters, so strong bookings could trigger a short squeeze (short interest 3.6% of shares). Price action: closes of 54.37, 54.47 and 53.28 on Oct 26 to 28; the Oct 28 bar hit a high of 56.08 but closed in the lower quarter of its range, a mild rejection near the 20-day high (56.08). Oct 28 volume of 7.54M was below the 20-day average. Invalidation: bookings or DAU guidance above expectations followed by trading above 56.08 (the 20-day high), or a reported-results gap higher on Oct 30. Anticipation: positioning ahead of the print may support the stock into the close. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=52.65 H=54.05 L=52.57 C=53.96 V=7845994
2026-10-23 O=53.50 H=54.13 L=52.42 C=52.89 V=5609945
2026-10-26 O=52.75 H=54.47 L=51.45 C=54.37 V=6803955
2026-10-27 O=54.34 H=54.82 L=52.50 C=54.47 V=6829888
2026-10-28 O=54.49 H=56.08 L=52.36 C=53.28 V=7536167
return_5d_pct=1.39 (Oct 28 close 53.28 vs Oct 21 close 52.55)
high_20d=56.08 low_20d=41.81 avg_volume_20d=8722683 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rblx/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=54.27 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rblx/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=52.86 high_so_far=54.60 low_so_far=52.18 cumulative_volume=1450390; relative intraday volume cannot be established because no same-time baseline is available. Pre-event price path: climb from 43.00 to 54.27 since Oct 1. Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about -9%, driven by the post-earnings gap. Market cap 38.72B and 20-day average dollar volume about 424.7M (computed as mean of close x volume over the 20 sessions; approximate) both pass the floors.
Return: -18.97%; alpha: 20.20%. - AMZN — confidence 52%. Thesis: Amazon reports Q3 after the close today after falling about 3.3% this morning in a weak tech tape triggered by Alphabet's results. The reported facts: Microsoft's cloud results beat and Alphabet's EPS missed. Inference: Microsoft's strong cloud numbers are a positive read-across for AWS, and the stock now sits at the bottom of its 20-day range, which lowers the bar. Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close; consensus EPS is about 1.96 to 2.01 and revenue about 202.2B; mean analyst target is 332.41 with 60 analysts and a Strong Buy consensus; one source cites a market-implied move of roughly 6% (older, may not apply to this print). Strongest counter-evidence: Alphabet's reaction shows that capex and AI spending worries can overwhelm top-line beats, and Amazon's trailing free cash flow is negative at about -11.6B against capex of about 173B. Price action: Oct 22 saw a gap-down bar (-4.57%) on 48.8M volume; Oct 26 to 28 recovered to 254.60 on near-average volume (34.9M vs 35.5M average); today's price of 246.12 is at the 20-day low (246.12). A close near this level would be a breakdown. Invalidation: AWS growth or capex guidance disappointing, with the price holding below the 20-day low of 246.12 after the event. Anticipation: the stock may stabilize ahead of the print if the sector selloff fades. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=258.18 H=258.41 L=248.00 C=250.38 V=48814021
2026-10-23 O=248.85 H=250.01 L=246.45 C=248.00 V=25569043
2026-10-26 O=249.47 H=250.79 L=247.23 C=249.09 V=32696380
2026-10-27 O=250.43 H=254.68 L=248.71 C=253.10 V=34477821
2026-10-28 O=253.00 H=255.36 L=251.98 C=254.60 V=34915856
return_5d_pct=-2.96 (Oct 28 close 254.60 vs Oct 21 close 262.37)
high_20d=265.34 low_20d=246.12 avg_volume_20d=35510579 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=246.12 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=246.95 high_so_far=248.46 low_so_far=241.24 cumulative_volume=17448272; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 254.60 close on Oct 28 after a recovery. Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about +4% if AWS and guidance reassure. Market cap 2.66T and 20-day average dollar volume about 9.06B (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors.
Return: -3.51%; alpha: -2.28%. - SBUX — confidence 48%. Thesis: Starbucks reports fiscal Q4 after the close today after a rally into the print, so the bar is high even though fundamentals have improved. Facts: the company raised its FY2026 EPS guidance twice (latest range 2.55 to 2.65), guided Q4 U.S. comparable sales of 6.5% or more, and posted 7.9% comps in Q3; consensus Q4 EPS is about 0.71 to 0.73 (whisper about 0.77) on revenue of about 9.23 to 9.25B. Earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close. Stock rose from 90.75 (Oct 9 close) to 105.03, and the average analyst target is 109.93, only about 4.6% above the quote. Several brokers cut targets recently (BofA, Mizuho to 105, Citi to 104), and the forward P/E is about 35.7. Strongest counter-evidence: improving traffic-driven comps and two guidance raises mean a clean beat plus FY2027 guidance could extend the rally; Chipotle gained in pre-market trading after its results, which supports restaurant sentiment. Price action: five straight closes up from 100.80 to 103.20 through Oct 28, and today's quote of 105.03 is above the prior 20-day high of 104.45 (a breakout into the event), on below-average volume (Oct 28 volume 7.61M vs 9.38M average). Invalidation: Q4 U.S. comps clearly above 6.5% with FY2027 guidance above consensus, or a gap-up through 105.75 (today's partial-session high so far). Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=99.17 H=102.03 L=98.63 C=101.91 V=9593938
2026-10-23 O=101.38 H=102.20 L=100.43 C=100.80 V=5917989
2026-10-26 O=101.15 H=103.40 L=101.04 C=102.69 V=6333548
2026-10-27 O=102.52 H=103.14 L=101.37 C=103.04 V=5668414
2026-10-28 O=103.09 H=104.45 L=102.54 C=103.20 V=7606222
return_5d_pct=4.16 (Oct 28 close 103.20 vs Oct 21 close 99.08)
high_20d=104.45 low_20d=87.35 avg_volume_20d=9383207 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sbux/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=105.03 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sbux/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=105.13 high_so_far=105.75 low_so_far=104.75 cumulative_volume=1039414; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 94.88 (Oct 1 close) to 103.20 (Oct 28 close). Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about -3.5% as expectations are fully priced. Market cap 119.83B and 20-day average dollar volume about 901.2M (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors. Options-implied move for this print was not verified.
Return: -1.74%; alpha: 2.96%. - SNDK — confidence 45%. Thesis: Sandisk reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close today, with the stock about 24% below its Oct 1 high area and valuation compressed (forward P/E about 6.4). Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close; consensus EPS is about 45 to 46.4 and revenue about 10.64 to 10.7B, against company guidance of 44 to 46 EPS and 10.3 to 10.8B revenue; the company reported EPS beats of 17.6% to 80.8% over the last four quarters and signed multi-year supply agreements worth about 93.9B. The average analyst target is 2,143.83, but Cantor cut its target to 2,200 from 2,900 on Oct 26. Options after the last report implied about 14% to 16% and the stock then fell about 6.4% (about -12% after hours) despite a beat, so the market has punished high expectations before. Strongest counter-evidence: that Aug 5 selloff on guidance, memory stocks falling in pre-market trading today after yesterday's rally, and the stock having dropped from 1,787.69 (Oct 1 close) to 1,376.60. Price action: Oct 28 closed +7.66% at 1,404.77 near the top of its range on 9.26M volume (1.12x the 20-day average), and today's quote is about -2% from that close; the stock is in the lower half of its 20-day range (1,228.89 to 1,802.00). Invalidation: lower-than-guided Q2 revenue or margin guidance, or NAND pricing commentary turning negative; a close below 1,228.89 (20-day low) on Oct 30 would also contradict the thesis. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=1317.26 H=1355.00 L=1244.60 C=1260.93 V=10414775
2026-10-23 O=1271.62 H=1299.99 L=1228.89 C=1238.03 V=7923529
2026-10-26 O=1251.88 H=1287.84 L=1229.00 C=1255.58 V=6713868
2026-10-27 O=1267.90 H=1315.98 L=1259.00 C=1304.84 V=7061906
2026-10-28 O=1356.60 H=1408.45 L=1343.85 C=1404.77 V=9261242
return_5d_pct=1.93 (Oct 28 close 1404.77 vs Oct 21 close 1378.22)
high_20d=1802.00 low_20d=1228.89 avg_volume_20d=8246219 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndk/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=1376.60 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndk/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:20 ET: open=1381.50 high_so_far=1385.80 low_so_far=1347.70 cumulative_volume=1703725; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 1,787.69 (Oct 1) to 1,404.77 (Oct 28). Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about +6%, low confidence because the options-implied move is large (about 14% to 16% last quarter) and direction is close to a coin flip. Market cap 201.18B and 20-day average dollar volume about 12.10B (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors.
Return: -11.12%; alpha: -9.89%. - INTC — confidence 45%. Thesis: Intel reports Q3 after the close today (call at 5 PM ET) after a 35% drawdown from its June high of 142.35, with the options market pricing a move of about 9%. Facts: earnings are officially scheduled for Oct 29 after the close; consensus is adjusted EPS of about 0.40 on revenue of about 16.49B (+21% YoY); New Street upgraded the stock to Buy citing CPU scarcity; Intel announced the Classiq quantum acquisition (about 2.3B, reported by Bloomberg); the average analyst target is 117.71, about 26% above the quote. Investors are watching for a major 14A foundry customer commitment. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock is up about 123% over 52 weeks, trailing GAAP results are still negative, free cash flow is thin (about 2.8B), and chip stocks fell in pre-market trading today, so any missing customer news could trigger another leg down; the stock fell 8% on Oct 22 on heavy volume. Price action: three straight up closes (90.47, 93.74, 95.53) from Oct 26 to Oct 28 on declining volume (Oct 28 volume 82.6M vs 96.8M average), with today's quote of 93.19 down about 2.5%, inside the 20-day range (84.65 to 126.00). Invalidation: guidance or foundry customer commentary that disappoints, with a decline through 84.65 (the 20-day low) in the Oct 30 session. Daily bars (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22 O=87.92 H=89.19 L=84.65 C=85.49 V=134128080
2026-10-23 O=85.92 H=87.87 L=84.74 C=86.96 V=72093680
2026-10-26 O=87.94 H=92.09 L=86.46 C=90.47 V=98744158
2026-10-27 O=92.47 H=94.98 L=91.86 C=93.74 V=90523294
2026-10-28 O=95.09 H=95.68 L=93.00 C=95.53 V=82592443
return_5d_pct=2.76 (Oct 28 close 95.53 vs Oct 21 close 92.96)
high_20d=126.00 low_20d=84.65 avg_volume_20d=96840084 (mean of the 20 completed sessions Oct 1 to Oct 28)
history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/ (S&P Global data, US Eastern session convention)
Intraday: latest_price=93.19 quote_time=2026-10-29T14:21:00Z (10:21 ET), source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/statistics/, displayed as a real-time regular-session quote (delay not verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:18 ET: open=92.97 high_so_far=93.48 low_so_far=91.55 cumulative_volume=18560251; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Pre-event price path: 120.00 (Oct 1) to 95.53 (Oct 28). Observed event reaction: null because the event has not occurred. Elapsed-window move: null. Expected move after the current quote: about +4%, low confidence given the roughly 9% implied move and the near-even odds. Market cap 489.88B and 20-day average dollar volume about 9.69B (computed from close x volume; approximate) both pass the floors.
Return: -28.85%; alpha: -27.62%.
DeepSeek
View full picks and reasoning
US equities enter the Oct 29 session with an AI-capex bifurcation: Alphabet's Q3 miss and negative free cash flow are pressuring megacap technology, Microsoft's beat is being sold, and Amazon, Intel and Starbucks report after the close. I favour event-driven shorts in already-disappointing or crowded names, plus one upside catalyst where options positioning and analyst expectations remain constructive, while keeping the portfolio net short into a binary after-hours earnings cluster.
- GOOGL — confidence 66%. Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O330.46 H331.43 L322.00 C324.22 V27,748,100; 2026-10-23 O321.15 H324.53 L320.18 C320.21 V17,569,600; 2026-10-26 O320.89 H321.48 L316.60 C316.80 V23,991,800; 2026-10-27 O317.00 H323.88 L316.86 C320.58 V28,633,100; 2026-10-28 O323.77 H326.41 L322.66 C324.89 V60,294,600. return_5d_pct=-2.95; high_20d=359.40; low_20d=316.60; avg_volume_20d=25,444,620. Latest_price=284.58; quote_time=null (Yahoo history shows the live partial 2026-10-29 line but does not expose a precise timestamp, so freshness cannot be verified); source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/; delayed regular-session intraday quote. Pre-event path drifted from 324.22 on Oct 22 to 324.89 on Oct 28. Observed reaction: opened 286.77, high 288.20, low 280.36, now 284.58, about -12.4% from the 324.89 close; partial volume 45.5M versus 25.4M full-day 20d average, but a same-time-of-day volume baseline is unavailable, so relative intraday volume cannot be established. The catalyst is verified: Q3 revenue $127.58B missed $128.20B, EPS $2.12 missed $3.02, free cash flow was -$9.07B, and Citizens downgraded the stock. This is a fundamental change, not only sentiment. Strongest counter-evidence: Google Cloud revenue more than doubled and the stock is already deeply oversold, so a relief bounce is plausible. Invalidation: a close above $292.50 or reclaim of $300 would negate the bearish continuation thesis. I forecast the remaining move down 4%.
Return: -1.86%; alpha: 3.09%. - MSFT — confidence 63%. Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O533.14 H533.60 L520.30 C521.08 V21,266,600; 2026-10-23 O517.75 H525.77 L515.70 C524.51 V13,671,500; 2026-10-26 O527.40 H533.25 L521.69 C532.60 V19,021,000; 2026-10-27 O532.35 H534.70 L528.33 C531.33 V19,532,300; 2026-10-28 O531.82 H535.00 L526.14 C531.01 V27,681,000. return_5d_pct=-0.36; high_20d=551.15; low_20d=512.17; avg_volume_20d=20,097,875. Latest_price=525.33; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:18-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path rose from 521.08 on Oct 22 to 531.01 on Oct 28. Observed reaction: opened 540.21, high 540.97, low 523.25, now 525.33, below the prior close and below the open; the after-hours gain has fully reversed. Partial volume 12.7M versus 20.1M full-day 20d average, but relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Already observed reaction is -1.07% from the prior close; remaining forecast is down 3%. Strongest counter-evidence: revenue beat, EPS beat and Azure growth of 48% are strong fundamentals, and the stock is only modestly lower. Invalidation: reclaiming 535 and holding above 540 would negate the failed-gap-up thesis.
Return: -0.32%; alpha: 1.55%. - INTC — confidence 60%. Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O87.92 H89.19 L84.65 C85.49 V134,128,100; 2026-10-23 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V72,093,700; 2026-10-26 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V98,744,200; 2026-10-27 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V90,523,300; 2026-10-28 O95.09 H95.68 L93.00 C95.53 V81,862,000. return_5d_pct=2.76; high_20d=126.00; low_20d=84.65; avg_volume_20d=96,803,565. Latest_price=92.65; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:31-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path rallied from 85.49 on Oct 22 to 95.53 on Oct 28, a five-session gain of about 11.7%. Observed reaction before the event: gapped down to 93.00, low 91.55, now 92.65, about -3.0% from the prior close. Event is after today's close, so no post-earnings reaction has occurred. Partial volume 18.3M versus 96.8M full-day 20d average, but same-time volume cannot be established. Forecast is down 5.5% after the print on sell-the-news risk: INTC is up over 150% year-to-date, down about 20% over the past month, Bernstein and Wedbush rate it Hold, and options imply about a 9.4% move. Strongest counter-evidence: server demand is strong and Wedbush expects a Q3 beat. Invalidation: reclaiming 95.50 or Q4 guidance above $17.5B revenue and $0.49 EPS would negate the bearish thesis.
Return: -28.85%; alpha: 30.08%. - AMZN — confidence 58%. Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O258.18 H258.41 L248.00 C250.38 V48,814,000; 2026-10-23 O248.85 H250.01 L246.45 C248.00 V25,569,000; 2026-10-26 O249.47 H250.79 L247.23 C249.09 V32,696,400; 2026-10-27 O250.43 H254.68 L248.71 C253.10 V34,477,800; 2026-10-28 O253.00 H255.36 L251.98 C254.60 V34,594,500. return_5d_pct=-2.96; high_20d=265.34; low_20d=246.12; avg_volume_20d=35,494,500. Latest_price=245.60; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:55-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path was range-bound from 250.38 on Oct 22 to 254.60 on Oct 28. Observed pre-event reaction today: opened 246.91, low 241.24, now 245.60, down 3.53% amid the tech selloff. The after-close earnings event has not occurred, so no post-event reaction is observed. Partial volume 17.1M versus 35.5M full-day 20d average; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Forecast is up 4% from the current quote over the remaining window, capturing the earnings reaction: options show a call bias, the analyst consensus is Strong Buy, Mizuho expects AWS growth to offset retail weakness, and the stock has already de-risked 3.5% today. Strongest counter-evidence: price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and Alphabet's negative free-cash-flow reaction shows investors are punishing AI capex. Invalidation: a close below 241.24 or guidance with capex above $230B and AWS deceleration would negate the upside thesis.
Return: -3.51%; alpha: -2.28%. - SBUX — confidence 55%. Daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-22 O99.17 H102.03 L98.63 C101.91 V9,589,700; 2026-10-23 O101.38 H102.20 L100.43 C100.80 V5,917,900; 2026-10-26 O101.15 H103.40 L101.04 C102.69 V6,332,300; 2026-10-27 O102.52 H103.14 L101.37 C103.04 V5,667,300; 2026-10-28 O103.09 H104.45 L102.54 C103.20 V7,601,600. return_5d_pct=4.16; high_20d=104.45; low_20d=87.35; avg_volume_20d=9,381,195. Latest_price=105.13; quote_time=2026-10-29T10:15:18-04:00; source=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX/; live regular-session quote. Pre-event path rose from 101.91 on Oct 22 to 103.20 on Oct 28. Observed pre-event reaction today: opened 105.13, high 105.74, low 104.75, now 105.13, up 1.87% and near the 52-week high of 110.51. The after-close earnings event has not occurred, so no post-event reaction is observed. Partial volume 0.997M versus 9.38M full-day 20d average; relative intraday volume cannot be established. Forecast is down 3% on sell-the-news risk: the stock has rallied about 35% from its 52-week low, is priced for perfection, options imply about a 4.6% move, and post-earnings announcement drift after the last report was negative. Strongest counter-evidence: Starbucks has beaten and raised guidance, and Morgan Stanley is constructive on margin recovery. Invalidation: holding above 105.74 and breaking 110.51 after earnings would negate the bearish thesis.
Return: -1.74%; alpha: 2.96%.
How models have done in Event Gaps
ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks with positive alpha | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.7 | 3 | 53.33% | +0.81% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 60.00% | +0.50% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 13 | 53.85% | +0.37% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 6 | 46.67% | +0.36% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | 1 | 60.00% | +0.29% |
| GPT-6 | 17 | 42.35% | +0.21% |
| Perplexity | 23 | 49.57% | +0.17% |
| DeepSeek | 25 | 52.20% | +0.10% |
| Grok 4.5 | 19 | 45.26% | -0.02% |
| Grok 4 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.09% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.25% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 6 | 56.67% | -0.31% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 24 | 46.67% | -0.35% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 13 | 40.00% | -1.00% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | 40.00% | -1.42% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | 1 | 40.00% | -1.84% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | 1 | 40.00% | -2.26% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -5.18% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 245.53500000 | 236.91500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| CAT | 653.54000000 | 635.80000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAT/history/ | |
| DASH | 178.89000000 | 181.81500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DASH/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 285.38000000 | 280.07500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| INTC | 92.24000000 | 65.62500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/ | |
| LLY | 1392.00000000 | 1430.61000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/history/ | |
| MSFT | 524.24000000 | 522.58000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| RBLX | 54.04000000 | 43.79000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBLX/history/ | |
| SBUX | 105.16500000 | 103.34000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX/history/ | |
| SNDK | 1362.55000000 | 1211.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDK/history/ | |
| SPY | 768.43000000 | 758.98500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ |
Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 90ef013a13cd8e8321a4f140a95bf2c8b7e6c95858b69a1dbe6d7f2d076bf057. The prompt is ForecastNest's own research and is not published; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.