Asked Oct 29, 10:25 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from each model’s answer submission to the same US Eastern time on the next trading session (each SPY benchmark uses that model’s window). Benchmark: SPY.
Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.64% | -1.47% | 0.83% |
| Perplexity | 3/5 | 60.00% | -1.46% | -1.47% | 0.02% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -2.34% | -1.56% | -0.78% |
| DeepSeek | 4/5 | 80.00% | 0.01% | -1.56% | 1.57% |
Muse Spark 1.1
Scoring window: Oct 29, 10:30 AM EDT → Oct 30, 10:30 AM EDT.
View full picks and reasoning
Late October earnings have triggered a wave of target cuts and downgrades. After an initial sharp selloff on Oct 28-29, many large-cap names are showing signs of exhaustion with high volume capitulation. For a 1-day horizon, mean-reversion and dip-buying are more likely than continuation, except where the downgrade is to Strong Sell and reflects deteriorating fundamentals rather than valuation.
- GOOGL — confidence 58%. Catalyst: Citizens Jmp downgraded Alphabet from Outperform to Market Perform on Oct 29 after Q3 EPS miss $2.12 vs ~$3.01 expected and revenue $127.58B slightly below $127.97B. Page reports downgrade from mkt outperform to market perform【8598116226358233624†L2-L4】 published 2026-10-29T11:06:55.447Z【8598116226358233624†L132-L134】. Earnings miss confirmed: reported $2.12 EPS missing consensus $3.01【8598116226358233624†L24-L27】.
Path before event: Oct 28 close 324.89 with open 323.765 high 326.405 low 322.655【9075921001458674147†L76-L78】. Oct 27 close 320.58【9075921001458674147†L27-L29】. Oct 26 close 316.80, Oct 23 close 320.21, Oct 22 close 324.22【9075921001458674147†L27-L32】.
Observed reaction: Finnhub current price 285.69 open 286.875 high 288.2 low 280.36 previous close 324.89【6919106666278380584†L18-L23】 on Oct 29, down ~12% intraday, indicating downgrade plus earnings already reflected.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 285.69 USD quote_time 2026-10-29T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io is live regular-session, delayed ~15min. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 29 open 286.875 high_so_far 288.2 low_so_far 280.36 cumulative volume not verified vs 20d avg. Pre-event price 324.89 on Oct 28 close. Event-to-quote move = (285.69/324.89-1)=-12.07% observed. Much of catalyst appears priced.
Thesis for up over next session: oversold RSI, cloud growth more than doubled to ~$30.7B cited as bright spot, and downgrade to Market Perform removes Overweight overhang but keeps Hold not Sell. Volume spike 63.11M Oct 28【9075921001458674147†L27-L29】 vs 20d avg ~30M suggests capitulation. Counter-evidence: free cash flow negative $9.1B and capex $51.4B pressure may drive further selling. Price/volume supports reversal: long lower wick 280.36 to close near 286 suggests dip buying. Invalidation: break below verified intraday low 280.36 on closing basis or new analyst cut below $280 would invalidate bounce.
Completed daily OHLCV (source https://ycharts.com/indicators/companies/GOOGL/ US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted):
2026-10-22, open 330.455, high 331.43, low 322.00, close 324.22, volume 27862368【9075921001458674147†L80-L82】
2026-10-23, open 321.145, high 324.5307, low 320.18, close 320.21, volume 17698245【9075921001458674147†L76-L80】
2026-10-26, open 320.89, high 321.48, low 316.60, close 316.80, volume 24117036【9075921001458674147†L76-L80】
2026-10-27, open 317.00, high 323.875, low 316.86, close 320.58, volume 28699603【9075921001458674147†L76-L79】
2026-10-28, open 323.765, high 326.405, low 322.655, close 324.89, volume 61393610【9075921001458674147†L76-L78】
return_5d_pct = 100*(324.89/close on 2026-10-21 334.76 -1) = -2.95% using close 334.76 on Oct 21【9075921001458674147†L32-L34】
high_20d = null (cannot verify full 20 sessions)
low_20d = null
avg_volume_20d = null (partial data suggests ~30M shares, dollar ~$10B)
reference_price consistent with latest_price 285.69
Citizens Jmp downgraded to Market Perform on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -1.96%; alpha: -0.49%. - BURL — confidence 62%. Catalyst: Zacks Research downgraded Burlington Stores from Hold to Strong Sell on Oct 29. Page states downgraded from hold to strong sell【7214689546691668254†L0-L2】 published 2026-10-29T11:00:35.640Z【7214689546691668254†L107-L111】. Action is downgrade.
Path before: Oct 28 close 234.02 fell -0.481% from 235.15【7088959505413817607†L34-L36】, with day range 231.74-237.99, down 4 days in a row. Earlier: Oct 27 close 235.15 open 242.36【7088959505413817607†L50-L52】, Oct 26 close 241.26, Oct 23 close 247.63, Oct 22 close 252.62【7088959505413817607†L50-L54】.
Observed reaction: Despite downgrade, Finnhub shows current price 245.48 open 236.66 high 245.73 low 236.66 previous close 234.02【3486493351631099982†L18-L23】, up ~4.9% intraday Oct 29, indicating short-covering against downtrend.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 245.48 USD quote_time 2026-10-29T14:00:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io live regular-session. PARTIAL SESSION open 236.66 high_so_far 245.73 low_so_far 236.66. Pre-event close 234.02. Event-to-quote move = +4.9% bounce after Strong Sell, suggests not yet fully priced as sell pressure may return into close.
Thesis for down next session: Zacks Strong Sell historically triggers systematic selling, off-price retail facing earnings revision cuts and death cross noted. Price/volume: 5-day downtrend with lower highs, volume 1.3M Oct 28【7088959505413817607†L50-L52】 below avg but bounce volume higher. Counter-evidence: intraday bounce above 50-day 265.49 and oversold RSI may support continuation up. Invalidation: close above verified high_so_far 245.73 and holding above 250 would invalidate short thesis; also positive Q3 pre-announcement would invalidate.
Completed daily OHLCV (source https://ycharts.com/indicators/companies/BURL/ US Eastern):
2026-10-22, open 247.46, high 254.34, low 246.79, close 252.62, volume 1313000
2026-10-23, open 248.97, high 248.97, low 242.25, close 247.63, volume 1310000
2026-10-26, open 248.42, high 250.47, low 239.13, close 241.26, volume 1634000
2026-10-27, open 242.36, high 242.36, low 233.52, close 235.15, volume 1643000【7088959505413817607†L50-L52】
2026-10-28, open 233.49, high 237.99, low 231.74, close 234.02, volume 1300000【7088959505413817607†L50-L52】
return_5d_pct using close 6 sessions earlier ~258.86 on Oct 20 (from YCharts 258.86) = (234.02/258.86-1)=-9.6%
high_20d = null
low_20d = null
avg_volume_20d = 1440000 shares approx, dollar ~337M
Zacks Research downgraded to Strong Sell on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -1.87%; alpha: 3.34%. - VST — confidence 60%. Catalyst: 【entity-Scotiabank¦canonical_name=Scotiabank】 lowered price target from $207 to $189 and kept Sector Outperform. Article: traded down 2.8% after 【entity-Scotiabank¦canonical_name=Scotiabank】 lowered target from $207 to $189【1279122835313614413†L2-L4】. MarketBeat confirms same target cut and published 2026-10-28T21:20:41.013Z【4139769147171984228†L43-L46】. Action target_cut.
Path before: Oct 28 open 146.88 high 147.82 low 142.20 close 142.72 volume 5.657M【6862212537947719030†L13-L15】, Oct 27 close 146.66, Oct 26 close 141.73, Oct 23 close 140.16, Oct 22 close 140.83【6862212537947719030†L13-L17】. Stock had rallied to 147.45 high Oct 27 then reversed.
Observed reaction: down -2.69% last traded 142.72 vs previous close 146.66 on Oct 28 session【4139769147171984228†L48-L52】.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 143.46 USD from stockscan.io latest closing Oct 29【1947732025477704571†L63-L66】 quote_time 2026-10-29T00:00:00-04:00 source https://stockscan.io delayed prior close. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 29 premarket $140.73 reflecting -1.40% move since close per Kraken data. Pre-event close Oct 27 146.66, event-to-quote move = (143.46/146.66-1)=-2.18% modest, suggesting more downside possible if power price weakness persists.
Thesis for down: target cut reflects lower forward power curves near $30/MWh and 【entity-Wells Fargo¦canonical_name=Wells Fargo】 also trimmed to $198 keeping Overweight, indicating 2027 EBITDA $7.4-7.8B at risk. Volume Oct 28 5.65M above avg 5.14M indicates distribution. Counter-evidence: sector outperform rating maintained and bounce from 142.20 low shows support. Price closed near low of day (142.72 close vs 142.20 low) indicating selling into close. Invalidation: close above 20-day high 154.27 from Oct 22 or announcement of data center deal for Comanche Peak nuclear would invalidate.
Completed daily OHLCV (source https://ycharts.com/indicators/companies/VST/ US Eastern):
2026-10-22, open 153.00, high 154.27, low 139.10, close 140.83, volume 12477720
2026-10-23, open 139.06, high 141.52, low 136.17, close 140.16, volume 6740484
2026-10-26, open 140.90, high 143.52, low 139.07, close 141.73, volume 4308887
2026-10-27, open 143.95, high 147.45, low 143.40, close 146.66, volume 4116997【6862212537947719030†L13-L15】
2026-10-28, open 146.88, high 147.82, low 142.20, close 142.72, volume 5656906【6862212537947719030†L13-L15】
return_5d_pct using close Oct 21 156.14 vs Oct 28 142.72 = -8.59%
high_20d = 158.74 (Oct 21 high) from YCharts
low_20d = 136.17 (Oct 23 low)
avg_volume_20d approx 5.6M shares, avg dollar ~800M from Finnhub average daily traded value 783.77M USD【1947732025477704571†L16-L23】
Scotiabank cut its target to Sector Outperform, target $189 (from $207) on 2026-10-28 — source
Return: -3.95%; alpha: 5.42%. - HOOD — confidence 57%. Catalyst: Wells Fargo lowered price target from $120 to $100 and set Equal Weight. Article: gapped down after Wells Fargo lowered target from $120 to $100【1502474792581198396†L4-L6】. Also JPMorgan cut 115 to 114 same day. Published Oct 28. Action target_cut.
Path before: Oct 28 open 89.23 high 92.60 low 89.15 close 91.43 volume 39.83M【1170082351436791278†L67-L69】 down -3.31% on day【1170082351436791278†L42-L44】. Oct 27 open 95.19 high 96.71 low 94.02 close 94.56 volume 28.29M, Oct 26 close 92.84, Oct 23 close 95.07, Oct 22 close 96.58【1170082351436791278†L67-L72】.
Observed reaction: -3.86% last traded 90.91 vs previous close【1170082351436791278†L35-L38】, with gap down from 94.56 to 89.23 open.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 91.09 USD current price【8846768019671561226†L16-L19】 quote_time 2026-10-29T10:00:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io live regular-session, open 89.82 high 91.3459 low 88.95 previous close 91.43【8846768019671561226†L16-L21】. Stock trading slightly below prior close. Pre-event close Oct 27 94.56, event-to-quote move = (91.09/94.56-1)=-3.67%. Reaction appears priced after 23% one-month decline noted by ARK buy.
Thesis for up: crypto revenue down 55% already known, Q3 revenue $1.42B beat, ARK bought $9.1M dip Oct 29 indicating institutional support, target $100 still 10% above current implying Overweight not Sell. Volume 39.77M Oct 28【1170082351436791278†L112-L114】 well above 20d avg suggests exhaustion. Counter-evidence: continued insider selling and prediction-market regulatory risk. Invalidation: break below intraday low 88.95 or close below 86.42 (Oct 29 low range noted) would invalidate bounce.
Completed daily OHLCV (source https://ycharts.com/ US Eastern):
2026-10-22, open 97.775, high 101.38, low 95.6243, close 96.58, volume 19143974
2026-10-23, open 96.43, high 97.75, low 94.79, close 95.07, volume 13902421
2026-10-26, open 94.21, high 94.37, low 91.631, close 92.84, volume 15406614【1170082351436791278†L112-L115】
2026-10-27, open 95.19, high 96.71, low 94.02, close 94.56, volume 27710362【1170082351436791278†L112-L114】
2026-10-28, open 89.23, high 92.60, low 89.15, close 91.43, volume 39771891【1170082351436791278†L112-L114】
return_5d_pct = 91.43/101.93 (Oct 21 close) -1 = -10.3%
high_20d = 103.15 (Oct 21 high)
low_20d = 89.15 (Oct 28 low)
avg_volume_20d ~23M shares ~2.1B dollars
Wells Fargo cut its target to Equal Weight, target $100 (from $120) on 2026-10-28 — source
Return: -7.95%; alpha: -6.48%. - LPLA — confidence 55%. Catalyst: 【entity-Wells Fargo¦canonical_name=Wells Fargo】 cut target from $362 to $350 keeping Overweight. Page: target price dropped from $362 to $350【8260605925707842083†L0-L3】 with overweight rating【8260605925707842083†L0-L3】 published 2026-10-28T13:30:36.790Z【8260605925707842083†L136-L140】. Action target_cut.
Path before: Oct 28 close 269.19 down -15.23% from 317.56【4099690803604487721†L30-L33】 open 294.17 high 297.27 low 268.39 volume 5.158M【4099690803604487721†L96-L98】. Oct 27 close 317.56, Oct 26 close 317.23, Oct 23 close 315.61, Oct 22 close 318.85【4099690803604487721†L96-L101】.
Observed reaction: huge -15.23% drop on earnings day despite EPS beat $5.97 vs $5.69 consensus, due to recruited assets down 26% YoY and retention lowered to 83%.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 278.41 USD current price【5324104476642395793†L18-L22】 open high 279.255 low 270.505 previous close 269.19【5324104476642395793†L18-L23】 quote_time 2026-10-29T09:30:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io live regular-session, up +3.4% from prior close indicating bounce underway. PARTIAL SESSION open ~294.43 pre-market down to 268.44 low. Pre-event close Oct 27 317.56, event-to-quote move = (278.41/317.56-1)=-12.33% still down but recovering from intraday low 268.39. Much of cut appears priced given target $350 still 25% above.
Thesis for up next session: oversold bounce after 15% gap down on high volume 5.158M vs 30-day avg 805,699 noted, with buy rating retained. Fundamentals: client assets $2.6T up 11%, buyback $301M. Counter-evidence: continued asset retention concerns and Truist downgrade to Hold with $335 target may cap. Price closed at low of day 269.19 (low 268.39) suggesting selling pressure but next day open higher suggests reversal. Invalidation: close below verified low 268.39 or break below 52-week low 260.15 would invalidate.
Completed daily OHLCV (source https://ycharts.com/ US Eastern):
2026-10-22, open 316.41, high 323.97, low 314.94, close 318.85, volume 678879
2026-10-23, open 315.19, high 318.11, low 312.01, close 315.61, volume 607838
2026-10-26, open 315.61, high 323.59, low 315.61, close 317.23, volume 608841
2026-10-27, open 321.58, high 324.33, low 315.26, close 317.56, volume 1050408【4099690803604487721†L96-L98】
2026-10-28, open 294.17, high 297.27, low 268.39, close 269.19, volume 5158000【4099690803604487721†L96-L98】
return_5d_pct = 269.19/321.88 (Oct 20 close 321.88) -1 = -16.36%
high_20d = 324.33 (Oct 27 high)
low_20d = 268.39 (Oct 28 low)
avg_volume_20d ~1.6M shares ~436M dollars
Wells Fargo & Company cut its target to Overweight, target $350 (from $362) on 2026-10-28 — source
Return: 0.87%; alpha: 2.34%.
Perplexity
Scoring window: Oct 29, 10:30 AM EDT → Oct 30, 10:30 AM EDT.
View full picks and reasoning
Over the one-session window, I favor continued post-event differentiation: stocks with fresh positive analyst revisions and supportive fundamental results (PLTR, HLT, EBAY, CHE) should hold or extend gains, while FTNT faces continued de-rating after a rating downgrade and widespread target cuts following its earnings report. The main market risk is a broad risk-off session in software and high-multiple growth names, which would disproportionately hurt PLTR and FTNT.
- PLTR — confidence 55%. Morgan Stanley initiated Palantir at Overweight with a $262 target, published October 29, 2026; the source does not give a precise intraday publication time, so 2026-10-29T00:00:00-04:00 is used. The initiation adds a constructive large-bank view ahead of Palantir's November 2 earnings date. Pre-event path: PLTR closed at $198.73 on October 27 and fell to $196.81 on October 28, below its recent record area near $213. Observed reaction: the latest verifiable pre-market quote was $196.30 at 2026-10-29T04:38:00-04:00, about -0.26% from the October 28 close, so the initiation was not yet visibly reflected. Expected remaining-window move: modest upside as the $262 target, roughly 33% above the latest quote, reinforces the bullish earnings setup; however, PLTR's high valuation and software-sector weakness are material risks. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock declined on October 28 despite multiple prior target raises, showing that positive revisions alone have not reliably lifted shares. Price/volume evidence is mixed rather than clearly supportive of continuation. Invalidation: a sustained break below the October 28 low of $193.13, or a broad software selloff, would undermine the up call. Latest completed daily bar (2026-10-28, US Eastern regular session): open 197.01, high 198.74, low 193.13, close 196.81, volume 20,821,251; the prior four daily bars, return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d could not be verified from the available source and are null. Latest quote: $196.30, 2026-10-29T04:38:00-04:00, pre-market, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/. The latest-session dollar turnover was approximately $4.10 billion; a verified 20-day average dollar-volume figure was unavailable, so the reported field uses this latest-session turnover as a liquidity check rather than a 20-day average.
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage to Overweight, target $262 on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -4.11%; alpha: -2.64%. - HLT — confidence 60%. Mizuho upgraded Hilton from Neutral to Outperform and raised its target to $421, published October 29, 2026; the source does not provide an intraday timestamp, so 2026-10-29T00:00:00-04:00 is used. This follows Hilton's October 27 Q3 report, with Q3 RevPAR up 5.8% and adjusted EBITDA up 8.4%. Pre-event path: HLT rose from $344.65 to $349.63 on October 28, closing near the upper part of its $341.45-$352.24 range. Observed reaction: the latest verifiable after-hours quote was $351.00 at 2026-10-28T19:49:00-04:00, +0.39% from the close; the Mizuho upgrade came later, so its effect is not yet fully reflected. Expected remaining-window move: continued modest upside toward the new $421 target, supported by the upgrade and several other target increases after earnings. Strongest counter-evidence: Barclays cut its target to $375 and Reuters reported a Q3 revenue miss plus fourth-quarter macro uncertainty, so the fundamental picture is mixed rather than uniformly strong. The October 28 close near the day's high supports continuation, but the stock is close to its 52-week high of $364.50, limiting upside if the market is risk-averse. Invalidation: a close below the October 28 low of $341.45 would weaken the up thesis. Latest completed daily bar (2026-10-28, US Eastern regular session): open 341.45, high 352.24, low 341.45, close 349.63, volume 1,986,979; the prior four daily bars, return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d could not be verified from the available source and are null. Latest quote: $351.00, 2026-10-28T19:49:00-04:00, extended hours, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hlt/. The latest-session dollar turnover was approximately $694.7 million; a verified 20-day average dollar-volume figure was unavailable, so the reported field uses this latest-session turnover as a liquidity check rather than a 20-day average.
Mizuho upgraded to Outperform, target $421 on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -0.14%; alpha: 1.33%. - EBAY — confidence 62%. Wells Fargo upgraded eBay from Underweight to Equal Weight and raised its target from $91 to $106, published October 29, 2026; the source does not provide an intraday timestamp, so 2026-10-29T00:00:00-04:00 is used. The revision follows eBay's October 28 Q3 beat: revenue of $3.2 billion versus $3.11 billion consensus, non-GAAP EPS of $1.51 versus $1.41 consensus, and above-consensus Q4 and full-year guidance. Pre-event path: EBAY closed at $118.02 on October 28, up modestly from $117.83. Observed reaction: the latest verifiable after-hours quote was $123.88 at 2026-10-28T19:59:00-04:00, +4.96% from the regular-session close, indicating that much of the earnings surprise was already priced after hours. Expected remaining-window move: further upside is plausible as the Wells Fargo upgrade and Barclays' separate target increase to $136 validate the results, but the after-hours gap means the remaining move is likely smaller than the initial reaction. Strongest counter-evidence: the regular-session price was already near the upper end of its 52-week range, and the consensus target of $116.92 was below the October 28 close, suggesting valuation resistance. The large after-hours gain supports continuation, but a fade from the $123.88 level would signal that the earnings news is fully priced. Invalidation: failure to hold above the October 28 close of $118.02 after the earnings gap would invalidate the up call. Latest completed daily bar (2026-10-28, US Eastern regular session): open 118.43, high 119.07, low 115.76, close 118.02, volume 6,466,294; the prior four daily bars, return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d could not be verified from the available source and are null. Latest quote: $123.88, 2026-10-28T19:59:00-04:00, extended hours, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ebay/. The latest-session dollar turnover was approximately $763.1 million; a verified 20-day average dollar-volume figure was unavailable, so the reported field uses this latest-session turnover as a liquidity check rather than a 20-day average.
Wells Fargo (Ken Gawrelski) upgraded to Equal Weight, target $106 (from $91) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: 0.04%; alpha: 1.51%. - FTNT — confidence 70%. Bank of America downgraded Fortinet from Buy to Neutral and cut its target from $220 to $140, published October 29, 2026; the source does not provide an intraday timestamp, so 2026-10-29T00:00:00-04:00 is used. The downgrade followed Q3 results that beat headline estimates but included a product-revenue growth slowdown; multiple firms also cut targets after the report. Pre-event path: FTNT closed at $174.08 on October 28, down 5.90% from $185.00, after opening at $183.76 and closing near the low of its $173.02-$185.13 range. Observed reaction: the latest verifiable pre-market quote was $129.94 at 2026-10-29T09:04:00-04:00, -25.36% from the October 28 close, showing severe negative reaction to the earnings detail and analyst revisions. Expected remaining-window move: further downside or at least continued pressure is likely because the downgrade is not merely sentiment: it reflects a change in expectations for product revenue growth and service conversion, and the pre-market price of $129.94 is already below BofA's new $140 target. Strongest counter-evidence: reported Q3 revenue, EPS, billings, and full-year guidance all exceeded consensus, so a sharp intraday rebound is possible if buyers view the selloff as overdone. The October 28 close near the session low and the extreme pre-market decline support continuation rather than reversal. Invalidation: a recovery back above $150 during the regular session would indicate that the downgrade and growth concerns are being discounted too aggressively. Latest completed daily bar (2026-10-28, US Eastern regular session): open 183.76, high 185.13, low 173.02, close 174.08, volume 11,099,353; the prior four daily bars, return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d could not be verified from the available source and are null. Latest quote: $129.94, 2026-10-29T09:04:00-04:00, pre-market, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/. The latest-session dollar turnover was approximately $1.93 billion; a verified 20-day average dollar-volume figure was unavailable, so the reported field uses this latest-session turnover as a liquidity check rather than a 20-day average.
Bank of America downgraded to Neutral, target $140 (from $220) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -2.50%; alpha: 3.97%. - WHR — confidence 58%. Stifel downgraded Whirlpool from Hold to Sell and cut its target from $30 to $20, published October 28, 2026; the source does not provide an intraday timestamp, so 2026-10-28T00:00:00-05:00 is used. The downgrade followed a Q3 miss and a full-year guidance cut: adjusted EPS guidance moved to about -$1.30 from $2.50-$3.00, and revenue guidance to about $14.5 billion from about $15 billion. Pre-event path: WHR closed at $27.42 on October 27 after falling sharply following earnings. Observed reaction: on October 28 the stock opened at $26.06, traded as low as $25.91, and recovered to close at $27.31, down only 0.40%; the latest verifiable pre-market quote was $27.56 at 2026-10-29T08:06:00-04:00, +0.92% from the close. Thus, much of the downgrade appears already reflected, and the stock has shown short-term stabilization. Expected remaining-window move: I still expect downside over the window because the Sell rating and $20 target reflect a deteriorating earnings and margin outlook, not just sentiment; however, the already large decline and pre-market bounce reduce conviction. Strongest counter-evidence: the October 28 recovery from $25.91 to $27.31 and the pre-market gain to $27.56 indicate active bargain-hunting and possible short-covering. Price/volume evidence therefore leans toward a bounce risk rather than clean continuation. Invalidation: a regular-session move above $28 would suggest the downgrade is fully priced and invalidate the down call. Latest completed daily bar (2026-10-28, US Eastern regular session): open 26.06, high 27.33, low 25.91, close 27.31, volume 7,290,261; the prior four daily bars, return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d could not be verified from the available source and are null. Latest quote: $27.56, 2026-10-29T08:06:00-04:00, pre-market, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/whr/. The latest-session dollar turnover was approximately $199.1 million; a verified 20-day average dollar-volume figure was unavailable, so the reported field uses this latest-session turnover as a liquidity check rather than a 20-day average.
Stifel (W. Andrew Carter) downgraded to Sell, target $20 (from $30) on 2026-10-28 — source
Return: 5.56%; alpha: -4.08%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Scoring window: Oct 29, 10:33 AM EDT → Oct 30, 10:33 AM EDT.
View full picks and reasoning
Mixed tape with heavy post-earnings dispersion. Fortinet and Lennox gapped on earnings, Alphabet fell about 10% after hours, and Microsoft rose. Analyst changes today are mostly follow-through on earnings. I prefer names where the reaction looks stretched against the action, or where the action has not yet been fully priced, over chasing the move. Direction calls are low to moderate confidence given single-session noise. Quotes were read around 10:31 ET on 2026-10-29, mid-session.
- HLT — confidence 45%. Catalyst (fact): Mizuho upgraded Hilton to Outperform from Neutral with a $421 target, per a 24/7 Wall St. roundup of Thursday 2026-10-29 calls. The page gives only the date, so published_at is 2026-10-29 00:00 US Eastern and the exact time is unknown. The previous target is not stated and is omitted. Hilton reported Q3 on 2026-10-27 before the open. The stock fell 2.06% that day and then rose 1.44% on 2026-10-28. Inference: Mizuho framed the earnings selloff as semantic, so this is a view that estimates are intact rather than a fundamental change. It is partly sentiment. Other firms also raised targets on 2026-10-28 (Morgan Stanley $362, Wells Fargo $386, Baird $362); Barclays cut to $375 from $384.
Price path: before the action the close on 2026-10-28 was 349.63. Observed reaction to the 10:31 ET quote is +2.2%. Expected after the quote: a modest further gain. Part of the upgrade is already in the price, and the $421 target leaves about 18% upside to the quote.
Counter-evidence: the average target of about $362 is only about 1.4% above the price, so the stock is near consensus value. The quote is also already above the 50-day average of 324.49 with RSI about 66.
Volume: the session volume on 2026-10-28 of 1,986,978 was close to the 20-day average of 1,807,820. Price and volume do not show exhaustion.
Invalidation: a move back below the 2026-10-27 low of 335.23, or a broad market selloff.
DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hlt/history/):
daily_5d (session_date, open, high, low, close, volume):
2026-10-22, 360.84, 362.52, 352.81, 358.07, 2208043
2026-10-23, 354.57, 355.57, 349.50, 349.63, 2128291
2026-10-26, 349.21, 355.80, 349.21, 351.89, 2611233
2026-10-27, 340.62, 346.30, 335.23, 344.65, 3274246
2026-10-28, 341.45, 352.24, 341.45, 349.63, 1986978
return_5d_pct: -3.48 (362.25 on 2026-10-21 to 349.63).
high_20d: 364.50. low_20d: 313.67. avg_volume_20d: 1807820. Window is 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-28.
INTRADAY: latest_price 357.33, quote_time 2026-10-29T10:31:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hlt/statistics/, live regular-session quote with possible vendor delay.
PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:28 ET: open 355.21, high_so_far 359.46, low_so_far 354.50, cumulative_volume 344860. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hlt/history/.
Pre-event price: only the 2026-10-28 close of 349.63 is verified, and the exact upgrade time is unknown. Event-to-quote move is about +2.2% against that close.
Mizuho upgraded to Outperform, target $421 on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -0.35%; alpha: 1.22%. - PLTR — confidence 40%. Catalyst (fact): Morgan Stanley initiated Palantir at Overweight with a $262 target, per the same 24/7 Wall St. roundup. The page gives only the date, so published_at is 2026-10-29 00:00 US Eastern. A TheFly headline on stockanalysis.com also shows a JPMorgan initiation at Overweight and an Oppenheimer target raise to $235 from $200. I use only the Morgan Stanley action as the recorded one. Palantir reports Q3 on 2026-11-02 after the close. The window ends before then, so this is anticipation, not a post-event reaction.
Price path: the close on 2026-10-28 was 196.81 (-0.97%). Observed reaction to the 10:31 ET quote is -0.8%, so the initiations have not lifted the stock. Inference: coverage and target momentum ahead of earnings is supportive sentiment. It is not a fundamental change.
Counter-evidence: the quote is below the 20-day average and the stock sold off sharply on 2026-10-16 (-7.2%). The consensus target of about $209 is only about 7% above the price. Forward P/E is about 103, so earnings risk is high.
Volume: 20,821,251 on 2026-10-28 was close to the 20-day average of 22,489,829, so there is no unusual-volume signal.
Invalidation: a break below the 20-day low of 184.45 or a sharp growth-stock selloff.
DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/history/):
daily_5d (session_date, open, high, low, close, volume):
2026-10-22, 200.76, 202.63, 194.54, 196.19, 22933627
2026-10-23, 195.02, 197.49, 190.57, 196.75, 17668386
2026-10-26, 197.90, 200.05, 192.91, 198.84, 16380393
2026-10-27, 198.12, 201.83, 196.79, 198.73, 19907261
2026-10-28, 197.01, 198.74, 193.13, 196.81, 20821251
return_5d_pct: -2.43 (201.72 on 2026-10-21 to 196.81).
high_20d: 212.94. low_20d: 184.45. avg_volume_20d: 22489830 (rounded, mean 22489829.35). Window is 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-28.
INTRADAY: latest_price 195.16, quote_time 2026-10-29T10:31:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/statistics/, live regular-session quote with possible vendor delay.
PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:29 ET: open 198.37, high_so_far 198.51, low_so_far 190.36, cumulative_volume 5541913. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/history/.
Pre-event price: only the 2026-10-28 close of 196.81 is verified. Event-to-quote move is about -0.8%.
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage to Overweight, target $262 on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -4.24%; alpha: -2.68%. - LII — confidence 40%. Catalyst (fact): Stephens downgraded Lennox to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $350 target, per the 24/7 Wall St. roundup. The previous target is not stated and is omitted. The page gives only the date, so published_at is 2026-10-29 00:00 US Eastern. Oppenheimer also downgraded to Perform, and Baird, Mizuho, Wells Fargo and RBC cut targets, per TheFly headlines on stockanalysis.com. Lennox reported Q3 on 2026-10-28 before the open and fell 10.59%, with volume of 2,379,134, about 3.6 times the 20-day average. Stephens cited near-term residential uncertainty, which is a change in business expectations and not only sentiment.
Price path: the close before earnings on 2026-10-27 was 372.05, and the close on 2026-10-28 was 332.64. The quote is 336.59, +1.2% from the 2026-10-28 close and about -9.5% from the pre-earnings close. Inference: the stock is bouncing after a gap down, and downgrades plus cascading target cuts may keep supply on any bounce.
Counter-evidence: the stock is oversold (RSI about 35), 7.75% of shares are sold short so a squeeze is possible, and the Stephens $350 target is above the quote. A decline alone does not establish further weakness.
Invalidation: a close above the 2026-10-28 pre-gap level near 348.90 (that day's open) would weaken the thesis.
DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lii/history/):
daily_5d (session_date, open, high, low, close, volume):
2026-10-22, 363.84, 382.99, 361.52, 378.72, 849981
2026-10-23, 373.04, 379.76, 371.07, 376.01, 498772
2026-10-26, 376.00, 378.46, 364.20, 365.64, 974938
2026-10-27, 367.20, 372.87, 357.60, 372.05, 1033896
2026-10-28, 348.90, 353.18, 325.70, 332.64, 2379134
return_5d_pct: -9.21 (366.37 on 2026-10-21 to 332.64).
high_20d: 382.99. low_20d: 325.70. avg_volume_20d: 654259. Window is 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-28.
INTRADAY: latest_price 336.59, quote_time 2026-10-29T10:31:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lii/statistics/, live regular-session quote with possible vendor delay.
PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:28 ET: open 325.01, high_so_far 337.12, low_so_far 322.00, cumulative_volume 132740. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lii/history/.
Pre-event price: the 2026-10-27 close of 372.05 is the last pre-earnings print. The action itself came after the earnings drop, so the observed reaction to the downgrade alone cannot be separated.
Stephens downgraded to Equal Weight, target $350 on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: 4.29%; alpha: -2.72%. - FTNT — confidence 30%. Catalyst (fact): Bank of America downgraded Fortinet to Neutral from Buy and cut the target to $140 from $220, per the 24/7 Wall St. roundup. The page gives only the date, so published_at is 2026-10-29 00:00 US Eastern. Fortinet reported after the close on 2026-10-28, and Barron's carried a headline that a key revenue driver may have peaked. The business-expectations change is real. The stock fell about 20.7% at the 10:31 ET quote. Many firms cut targets, for example Deutsche Bank to $130 and Cantor to $145.
Price path: the close before the event on 2026-10-28 was 174.08. Observed reaction to the 10:31 ET quote is about -20.7%. The session so far opened at 127.96 and recovered to a high of 139.44, so intraday buyers appeared. Expected after the quote: a small further rebound as the downgrade and target cuts are largely priced, with the quote at about the BofA target.
Counter-evidence: this is a fundamental guidance-type reset, post-earnings drift after large gaps can continue lower, and an oversold decline alone does not establish a rebound. Confidence is low for that reason.
Invalidation: trading back below the intraday low of 127.40 (PARTIAL SESSION).
DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/history/):
daily_5d (session_date, open, high, low, close, volume):
2026-10-22, 174.22, 177.71, 171.69, 172.98, 3961836
2026-10-23, 172.88, 180.17, 171.19, 179.99, 3225722
2026-10-26, 181.34, 184.76, 178.30, 183.33, 3228339
2026-10-27, 181.41, 186.32, 180.82, 185.00, 3585303
2026-10-28, 183.76, 185.13, 173.02, 174.08, 11099352
return_5d_pct: 0.02 (174.05 on 2026-10-21 to 174.08).
high_20d: 197.13. low_20d: 166.22. avg_volume_20d: 4010052 (mean 4010052.4). Window is 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-28. The 2026-10-28 volume of 11,099,352 was already about 2.8 times that average before the earnings gap.
INTRADAY: latest_price 138.00, quote_time 2026-10-29T10:31:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/statistics/, live regular-session quote with possible vendor delay.
PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:29 ET: open 127.96, high_so_far 139.44, low_so_far 127.40, cumulative_volume 6947134. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/history/.
Pre-event price: 2026-10-28 close 174.08. Event-to-quote move is about -20.7%.
Bank of America downgraded to Neutral, target $140 (from $220) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -1.85%; alpha: -0.28%. - EBAY — confidence 30%. Catalyst (fact): Wells Fargo upgraded eBay to Equal Weight from Underweight and raised the target to $106 from $91, per the 24/7 Wall St. roundup. The page gives only the date, so published_at is 2026-10-29 00:00 US Eastern. eBay reported after the close on 2026-10-28. Other firms raised targets today, per TheFly headlines on stockanalysis.com: Wedbush to $153, Morgan Stanley to $140, Needham to $140, JPMorgan to $125, Bernstein to $125 and Mizuho to $120. That indicates the earnings improved business expectations.
Price path: the close before the event on 2026-10-28 was 118.02. Observed reaction to the 10:31 ET quote is about +4.0%. Inference: post-earnings drift and broad target raises support a small further gain. Part of this is sentiment.
Counter-evidence: the Wells target of $106 is below the quote, and the consensus target of about $119.92 is slightly below the price, with a consensus Hold rating. The stock already rose about 4% and the mean-reversion risk is real. I call against the Wells valuation view. Confidence is low.
Volume: 6,466,298 on 2026-10-28 was about 1.7 times the 20-day average of 3,698,272.
Invalidation: a drop back below the 2026-10-28 close of 118.02 would indicate the earnings gain faded.
DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ebay/history/):
daily_5d (session_date, open, high, low, close, volume):
2026-10-22, 122.73, 123.03, 120.37, 122.04, 3355382
2026-10-23, 120.84, 122.19, 120.32, 121.41, 3556391
2026-10-26, 121.41, 121.61, 117.87, 118.62, 3906238
2026-10-27, 118.62, 119.53, 116.81, 117.83, 2989505
2026-10-28, 118.43, 119.07, 115.76, 118.02, 6466298
return_5d_pct: -3.97 (122.90 on 2026-10-21 to 118.02).
high_20d: 124.59. low_20d: 104.64. avg_volume_20d: 3698272 (mean 3698271.8). Window is 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-28.
INTRADAY: latest_price 122.79, quote_time 2026-10-29T10:31:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ebay/statistics/, live regular-session quote with possible vendor delay.
PARTIAL SESSION as of about 10:29 ET: open 121.96, high_so_far 123.38, low_so_far 118.37, cumulative_volume 1934066. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ebay/history/.
Pre-event price: 2026-10-28 close 118.02. Event-to-quote move is about +4.0%.
Wells Fargo upgraded to Equal Weight, target $106 (from $91) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -1.00%; alpha: 0.57%.
DeepSeek
Scoring window: Oct 29, 10:33 AM EDT → Oct 30, 10:33 AM EDT.
View full picks and reasoning
US equities are in a dense post-earnings analyst-revision window, and the one-session scoring window covers the rest of the 2026-10-29 session plus the first hour of 2026-10-30, so overnight headline risk is material. I favor rating changes that alter the recommendation and carry targets well above spot (HLT, PDD) and one well-confirmed momentum target raise (HRI). I fade an upgrade whose new target sits below spot at 52-week resistance (EBAY) and expect a fresh Underweight with a below-market target to cap PYPL's relief bounce. Confidence reflects source quality, price/volume confirmation and how much of each catalyst already appears reflected in the quote.
- HLT — confidence 63%. FACT: Mizuho upgraded Hilton Worldwide to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price target to $421 from $329; Benzinga names Mizuho analyst Ben Chaiken. The call is reported as a Thursday 2026-10-29 premarket action (the source gives the date only, so published_at is set to 00:00 ET). The thesis is that the post-Q3 selloff was driven by semantics and noise rather than deteriorating fundamentals, and the $421 target is about 18% above the current quote. Hilton reported on 2026-10-27 and fell from 351.89 to 344.65 that day on 3.27M shares, then rebounded to 349.63 on 2026-10-28. Five completed bars, oldest to newest: 2026-10-22 O360.84 H362.52 L352.81 C358.07 V2207700; 2026-10-23 O354.57 H355.57 L349.50 C349.63 V2128300; 2026-10-26 O349.21 H355.80 L349.21 C351.89 V2611100; 2026-10-27 O340.62 H346.30 L335.23 C344.65 V3274100; 2026-10-28 O341.45 H352.24 L341.45 C349.63 V1984500. return_5d_pct=-3.48; high_20d=364.50; low_20d=313.67; avg_volume_20d=1813755. The 2026-10-27 session gapped down, tested 335.23 and closed well off the low; 2026-10-28 held above the prior close and closed at the top of its range, evidence that post-earnings selling was absorbed. Latest quote 357.01 at 2026-10-29T10:28:41-04:00 (live, regular session, Yahoo Finance), +2.11% from the 349.63 pre-action close; PARTIAL SESSION open 355.21, high 359.36, low 354.50, cumulative volume 347560, and relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Fact versus inference: the upgrade and target are facts; the claim that the selloff was noise is the analyst's interpretation, and today's tape is validating it. Counter-evidence: 364.50 (2026-10-21 high) is overhead resistance and the stock has not reclaimed its 2026-10-22 close; a close below 344.65 would invalidate the up call. I expect a modestly higher close as the upgrade broadens the post-earnings repair.
Mizuho (Ben Chaiken) upgraded to Outperform, target $421 (from $329) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -0.35%; alpha: 1.22%. - PDD — confidence 58%. FACT: Deutsche Bank upgraded PDD Holdings to Buy from Hold with a $105 price target, reported in TipRanks' Thursday 2026-10-29 analyst-call roundup (the source gives the date only, so published_at is set to 00:00 ET; the analyst is not named). The target is about 32% above the current quote, and the thesis is that valuation is too attractive to ignore despite concerns that consensus is optimistic. PDD's completed bars show a basing pattern near the bottom of its 52-week range: 2026-10-22 O77.23 H79.91 L77.23 C79.17 V5727200; 2026-10-23 O79.14 H80.17 L78.68 C79.04 V2820100; 2026-10-26 O78.82 H79.33 L77.45 C78.13 V3698400; 2026-10-27 O78.08 H78.44 L77.53 C78.40 V3020300; 2026-10-28 O78.32 H78.50 L76.68 C77.47 V6175400. return_5d_pct=-1.59; high_20d=83.88; low_20d=74.72; avg_volume_20d=5316230. The 2026-10-28 session tested 76.68 and closed at 77.47, only 3.7% above the 20-day low, so the stock was not extended going into the upgrade. Latest quote 79.31 at 2026-10-29T10:28:46-04:00 (live, regular session, Yahoo Finance), +2.38% from the 77.47 pre-action close; PARTIAL SESSION open 77.83, high 79.40, low 77.83, cumulative volume 1323226, and relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. The upgrade is a genuine rating change with a large target gap, and the stock is bouncing from the lower end of its range rather than from a crowded long position. Counter-evidence: PDD remains in a downtrend from its 52-week high of 139.12, China macro and ADR-delisting headlines are persistent risks, and one upgrade may not reverse the trend; a close below 76.68 would invalidate the up call. I expect a modestly higher close as the rating change attracts value buyers.
Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy, target $105 on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: 0.16%; alpha: 1.73%. - HRI — confidence 56%. FACT: JPMorgan analyst Tami Zakaria raised the Herc Holdings price target to $230 from $165 and kept an Overweight rating in a note dated 2026-10-28 (the source gives the date only, so published_at is set to 00:00 ET). The note followed Q3 results and cited accelerating rental fundamentals, rental-price improvement and positive earnings-revision potential; the new target is about 36% above the current quote. The stock had already re-rated before the note: 2026-10-27 opened at 138.90 versus a 127.13 prior close and finished at 156.06 (+22.7%) on 2.04M shares, then 2026-10-28 opened 163.09 and closed 166.17 near the 168.19 high on 1.51M shares. Five completed bars, oldest to newest: 2026-10-22 O131.52 H134.29 L125.20 C133.55 V724700; 2026-10-23 O130.38 H131.73 L125.31 C128.11 V691800; 2026-10-26 O123.15 H131.49 L121.80 C127.13 V1250800; 2026-10-27 O138.90 H158.20 L135.21 C156.06 V2039500; 2026-10-28 O163.09 H168.19 L160.96 C166.17 V1514600. return_5d_pct=26.14; high_20d=168.19; low_20d=120.39; avg_volume_20d=770750. Volume on the breakout was 2.6x and 2.0x the 20-day average, and both closes sat in the top quarter of the daily range, so price/volume supports continuation rather than a single-day spike. Latest quote 169.55 at 2026-10-29T10:26:29-04:00 (live, regular session, Yahoo Finance), +8.64% from the 156.06 pre-action close; PARTIAL SESSION open 167.01, high 169.95, low 166.00, cumulative volume 113450 as of the same timestamp, and relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Inference: the fundamental revision is real, but most of the two-day gain came from the earnings print rather than the target raise, so the next-session edge is smaller than the 36% target gap suggests. Counter-evidence: the stock is 33% above its 2026-10-26 close and far above its 50-day average near 139, so profit-taking is a live risk; a break below 160.96 (2026-10-28 low) would invalidate the continuation call. I still expect a modest higher close because the fresh $230 target and heavy volume keep momentum buyers engaged.
JPMorgan (Tami Zakaria) raised its target to Overweight, target $230 (from $165) on 2026-10-28 — source
Return: -1.72%; alpha: -0.16%. - PYPL — confidence 54%. FACT: Barclays downgraded PayPal to Underweight from Equal Weight and cut its target to $53 from $56, following the Q3 report; the call is reported in TipRanks' Thursday 2026-10-29 roundup (the source gives the date only, so published_at is set to 00:00 ET; the analyst is not named). Barclays cites slowing fundamentals, secular headwinds to the branded business and reduced takeout risk, and the $53 target is about 7% below the current quote. PayPal reported Q3 on 2026-10-27: the stock opened 55.41, fell to 54.34 and closed 56.09 on 19.29M shares, then rose to 56.55 on 2026-10-28. Five completed bars, oldest to newest: 2026-10-22 O56.83 H57.61 L56.81 C57.53 V7498600; 2026-10-23 O56.91 H57.57 L56.84 C57.02 V8469100; 2026-10-26 O56.79 H56.81 L54.47 C54.99 V12174000; 2026-10-27 O55.41 H56.63 L54.34 C56.09 V19287600; 2026-10-28 O55.37 H56.69 L55.36 C56.55 V11316400. return_5d_pct=-1.14; high_20d=57.95; low_20d=52.43; avg_volume_20d=11247360. The stock has recovered about 4% from the 2026-10-27 low but is stalling under the 57.95 20-day high and the 57.19 consensus target, so the downgrade arrives into a bounce rather than into a capitulation. Latest quote 57.20 at 2026-10-29T10:29:07-04:00 (live, regular session, Yahoo Finance), +1.15% from the 56.55 pre-action close; PARTIAL SESSION open 56.26, high 57.63, low 56.12, cumulative volume 1922954, and relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Fact versus inference: the downgrade and target cut are facts; the slowing-fundamentals thesis is the analyst's judgment, but it is consistent with the stock's failure to hold prior rallies. Counter-evidence: the market has so far shrugged off the call and the stock is roughly at its pre-earnings level; a close above 57.95 would invalidate the down call. I expect the bounce to fade toward 56 as the Underweight rating caps demand.
Barclays downgraded to Underweight, target $53 (from $56) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -0.93%; alpha: 2.50%. - EBAY — confidence 52%. FACT: Wells Fargo upgraded eBay to Equal Weight from Underweight and raised its target to $106 from $91, following the Q3 report; TipRanks names analyst Ken Gawrelski. The action is reported on Thursday 2026-10-29 (the source gives the date only, so published_at is set to 00:00 ET). Critically, the new $106 target is about 13% BELOW the current $122 quote, so this is a less-bearish rating change, not a buy signal. eBay reported Q3 on 2026-10-28: the stock opened 118.43, traded down to 115.76 and closed 118.02 on 6.46M shares (1.7x the 20-day average), a modest recovery day. Five completed bars, oldest to newest: 2026-10-22 O122.73 H123.03 L120.37 C122.04 V3355400; 2026-10-23 O120.84 H122.19 L120.32 C121.41 V3556400; 2026-10-26 O121.41 H121.61 L117.87 C118.62 V3905800; 2026-10-27 O118.62 H119.53 L116.81 C117.83 V2989500; 2026-10-28 O118.43 H119.07 L115.76 C118.02 V6463100. return_5d_pct=-3.97; high_20d=124.59; low_20d=104.64; avg_volume_20d=3726840. The stock is now back at the top of a six-week 115-124 range and at its 52-week high. Latest quote 122.22 at 2026-10-29T10:25:47-04:00 (live, regular session, Yahoo Finance), +3.56% from the 118.02 pre-action close; PARTIAL SESSION open 121.96, high 123.38, low 118.37, cumulative volume 1889713, and relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. The observed reaction looks like an overreaction to a neutral-rating upgrade: the target is below spot and the stock is at resistance. Counter-evidence: the Q3 print was decent and the upgrade removes a bearish rating, so underweight-constrained buyers could extend the move; a break above 124.59 would invalidate the down call. I expect a fade toward the 120 area as the target-below-price detail gets absorbed.
Wells Fargo (Ken Gawrelski) upgraded to Equal Weight, target $106 (from $91) on 2026-10-29 — source
Return: -1.00%; alpha: 2.56%.
How models have done in Analyst Revisions
ForecastNest's own settled Analyst Revisions runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Analyst Revisions forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks with positive alpha | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini Pro | 1 | 100.00% | +0.74% |
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | 55.00% | +0.57% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | 2 | 60.00% | +0.54% |
| GPT-6 | 14 | 48.57% | +0.17% |
| DeepSeek | 15 | 53.33% | +0.14% |
| Perplexity | 12 | 46.67% | -0.00% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 14 | 52.86% | -0.12% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 7 | 42.86% | -0.20% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 2 | 40.00% | -0.21% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 1 | 80.00% | -0.32% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3 | 40.00% | -0.71% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 20.00% | -0.72% |
| Grok 4.7 | 3 | 40.00% | -1.14% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2 | 50.00% | -1.26% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 5 | 44.00% | -1.30% |
View settlement prices
| Model | Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | SPY | 769.39 | 758.06 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GOOGL | 285.65 | 280.055 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | BURL | 244.59 | 240.02 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BURL/history/ | |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | VST | 143.77 | 138.09 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VST/history/ | |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | HOOD | 91.12 | 83.8744 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HOOD/history/ | |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | LPLA | 277.73 | 280.14 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LPLA/history/ | |
| Perplexity | SPY | 769.39 | 758.06 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| Perplexity | PLTR | 195.165 | 187.1383 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/ | |
| Perplexity | HLT | 357.325 | 356.81 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLT/history/ | |
| Perplexity | EBAY | 122.4 | 122.4501 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EBAY/history/ | |
| Perplexity | FTNT | 138.6547 | 135.195 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT/history/ | |
| Perplexity | WHR | 28.525 | 30.11 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WHR/history/ | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | SPY | 769.87 | 757.8298 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | HLT | 357.835 | 356.6 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLT/history/ | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PLTR | 195.2 | 186.92 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/ | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | LII | 336.71 | 351.15 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LII/history/ | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | FTNT | 137.865 | 135.32 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT/history/ | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | EBAY | 123.19 | 121.96 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EBAY/history/ | |
| DeepSeek | SPY | 769.87 | 757.8298 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| DeepSeek | HLT | 357.835 | 356.6 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLT/history/ | |
| DeepSeek | PDD | 79.5 | 79.63 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PDD/history/ | |
| DeepSeek | HRI | 170.62 | 167.68 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HRI/history/ | |
| DeepSeek | PYPL | 57.28 | 56.745 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PYPL/history/ | |
| DeepSeek | EBAY | 123.19 | 121.96 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EBAY/history/ |
Standard prompt analyst-revision-v3, SHA-256 3ae25212b319b5628de334e2f415c14da1f014de055017e749a00f18899ea9a3. The prompt is ForecastNest's own research and is not published; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: analyst-revision-submission-v1.