Oct 30, 2026 - 7 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 3 models beat SPY over the window

0

Asked Oct 30, 10:35 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.7, Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 3.6 Flash High, DeepSeek and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 30, 10:35 AM EDT to Nov 2, 10:35 AM EST, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYAlpha vs SPY
Perplexity2/540.00%-0.43%0.59%-1.02%
Muse Spark 1.13/560.00%2.31%0.59%1.72%
Grok 4.72/540.00%-0.02%0.59%-0.61%
Claude Opus 5.55/5100.00%4.25%0.59%3.66%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High2/540.00%0.44%0.59%-0.16%
DeepSeek2/540.00%-0.23%0.59%-0.82%
GPT-63/560.00%2.55%0.59%1.96%

Perplexity

Perplexity: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

The market is in a high-volatility de-risking phase after disappointing AI-hyperscaler and semiconductor results raised concerns about capital spending, cash burn, and PC demand. Energy and select healthcare earnings are providing relative strength, while technology faces continued downside risk into next week's Apple, Palantir, and AMD reports. I favor continuation shorts in names with fresh negative catalysts or demanding pre-earnings positioning, plus one long in a healthcare name with a verified earnings beat and strong price reaction.

  1. INTC — confidence 78%. Intel reported Q3 results and issued weak Q4 guidance citing PC weakness and manufacturing/capacity constraints; the stock fell roughly 23-29% after hours and in premarket trading. This is an observed, reported catalyst, not an anticipation trade. The latest verifiable quote is $65.74 at 2026-10-30T14:09:00Z, down about 28.5% from the prior close of $91.98; the session range was $64.11-$68.67 and reported turnover was about $4.19B, so liquidity comfortably exceeds the $20M floor. The completed daily history available for verification is limited: 2026-10-27 open 92.465, high 94.98, low 91.86, close 93.74, volume 90,520,000; 2026-10-28 close 93.74; earlier five-session and 20-session OHLC/volume aggregates could not be fully verified, so return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d are reported as null rather than estimated. The price is breaking far below its recent range on exceptional volume, which supports continuation rather than an immediate reversal; however, the strongest counter-evidence is that a 28% one-day decline can produce a technical bounce, and the move is already very extended. A reclaim of roughly $70, the upper part of Friday's observed range, would invalidate the downside-continuation thesis. I expect further decline into the close and the next session as index flows, forced de-risking, and revised estimates catch up.
    Return: -3.18%; alpha: 2.59%.
  2. AMZN — confidence 70%. Amazon reported Q3 revenue and EPS below consensus, disclosed negative trailing-12-month free cash flow of $42.4B, and maintained a $220B 2026 capital-expenditure forecast; shares fell about 7% in extended trading and premarket. This is an observed earnings catalyst. The latest verifiable intraday quote found is $236.65, described as a live market-open quote, with a day range of $229.58-$240.17 and market cap about $2.63T; average volume is about 39.33M shares, implying roughly $9.4B of 20-day average dollar turnover at recent prices. Verified completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 246.95, high 249.14, low 241.24, close 243.79, volume 83,559,600, and 2026-10-28 open 253.00, high 255.36, low 251.98, close 254.60, volume 34,915,900; the remaining history needed for exact five-session and 20-session statistics was not verifiable from the available sources, so those aggregates are null. The stock closed near the low of Thursday's expanded range on roughly 2-3x normal volume, supporting continued distribution, while the main counter-evidence is that much of the earnings disappointment is already reflected in the roughly 6-7% premarket decline and a further leg lower requires broader AI-capex sentiment to remain weak. A sustained move back above $243.79, Thursday's close, would weaken the bearish continuation case. I expect residual selling and continued multiple compression into the next session.
    Return: 5.86%; alpha: -6.45%.
  3. PLTR — confidence 65%. Palantir is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026, with its webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET; this is a scheduled event, not yet an observed result. The latest verifiable quote is $194.10 in premarket trading at 2026-10-30T08:40:00Z, after a $196.42 regular-session close on October 29; market cap is about $472.01B and recent volume is around 20M shares, implying roughly $3.9B of daily dollar turnover. Available completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 198.37, high 198.51, low 190.36, close 193.40, volume 13,338,795; 2026-10-28 open 197.01, high 198.74, low 193.13, close 196.81, volume 20,744,600; and 2026-10-27 open 198.12, high 201.83, low 196.79, close 198.73, volume 19,907,300. Exact five-session and 20-session high/low/volume aggregates were not fully verifiable, so those fields are null. The thesis is anticipation-driven: Palantir carries an exceptionally high valuation, and the current AI-spending/cash-burn scare makes a high multiple vulnerable if growth, government demand, or guidance disappoints. The stock has already drifted lower from the $200+ area, with a lower close and a close near the lower half of Thursday's range, which is consistent with pre-event de-risking rather than confirmed post-earnings weakness. The strongest counter-evidence is that strong demand commentary could trigger a sharp rally, and the event occurs after the forecast window's Monday session; therefore the position is primarily a valuation/positioning short into the report, not a bet on known results. A move back above $200 would invalidate the pre-earnings weakness thesis.
    Return: -0.01%; alpha: -0.58%.
  4. AAPL — confidence 58%. Apple is officially scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET; this is a scheduled catalyst, not a reported outcome. The latest verifiable intraday quote is $344.99 at 2026-10-30T13:47:00Z, down 1.12% on the session, with market cap about $5.09T and three-month average volume about 43.56M shares, implying roughly $15.2B of average dollar turnover. Verified completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 348.00, high 351.43, low 347.30, close 348.91, volume 40,889,228; 2026-10-28 open 346.92, high 347.18, low 343.52, close 343.83, volume 35,714,300; and 2026-10-27 open 343.17, high 347.78, low 342.39, close 347.10, volume 39,984,400. Full five-session and 20-session aggregates were not verifiable from the available sources and are therefore null. The thesis is pre-earnings de-risking: Apple enters the print near its 52-week-high area after a strong run, while the broader AI-hardware and consumer-device demand narrative has deteriorated following Intel's PC weakness and Big Tech capex concerns. Friday's modest fade from $348.91 toward $345 suggests some profit-taking, but it is not yet a decisive breakdown; the main counter-evidence is Apple's relative resilience and the possibility that investors rotate into a less AI-capex-intensive mega-cap before the print. A close back above $351.43, the October 29 high, would invalidate the pullback thesis. I expect a modest decline into the earnings deadline as investors reduce event risk.
    Return: -1.77%; alpha: 1.18%.
  5. LLY — confidence 62%. Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.48, well above the $5.38 consensus, and the stock rose 6.63% to $1,373.70 on October 29 on 4,355,666 shares, roughly 1.7x its 2.52M average volume. This is an observed earnings catalyst. The latest verifiable quote is $1,383.76, last updated 2026-10-30T08:02:00Z in premarket trading; market cap is about $1.23T, and average dollar turnover is roughly $3.45B based on 2.52M shares at recent prices. Verified completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 1,332.73, high 1,408.38, low 1,330.00, close 1,373.70, volume 4,355,666; 2026-10-28 open 1,268.55, high 1,299.43, low 1,260.34, close 1,288.30, volume 2,052,000; and 2026-10-27 open 1,273.50, high 1,297.92, low 1,272.07, close 1,281.91, volume 1,848,700. Exact five-session and 20-session aggregates were not fully verifiable and are null. The earnings surprise is a fundamental improvement in reported results, and the strong close plus premarket follow-through supports some continuation; however, the stock already captured a 6.6% move and touched $1,408.38 before closing below that high, leaving room for profit-taking. The strongest counter-evidence is therefore post-earnings mean reversion, especially in a risk-off technology-led tape. A fall back below $1,330, Thursday's opening/low area, would invalidate the continuation thesis. I expect a smaller further gain than the initial reaction as momentum and healthcare rotation persist.
    Return: -1.26%; alpha: -1.85%.

Full prediction and audit record

Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

Oct 30 2026 is peak Q3 earnings Friday with heavy tech repricing. Alphabet fell 12.64% Oct 29 on EPS miss and $195-205B capex guide, Amazon missed EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 and revenue $201.9B vs $202.31B despite 39% AWS growth, Intel plunged on weak Q4 guide, Rivian and Regeneron beat. Fed held rates, AI capex cash burn is driving sentiment. Window Fri afternoon to Mon close captures continuation of earnings gaps into Monday.

  1. INTC — confidence 78%. Thesis: Intel Q3 2026 occurred Oct 29 after close. Reported fact: revenue $16.51B up 21% YoY vs $16.48B est beat, non-GAAP EPS $0.52 vs $0.40 beat. Forward guidance is the catalyst: Q4 revenue $15-16B vs $17.07B LSEG expected miss, adj EPS $0.25 vs $0.43 expected, adj gross margin guided 38% down from 44.1% Q3, PC chip revenue guided down mid-20% in Q4, plus $300M Israel shutdown hit. Fundamental deterioration, not just sentiment. Price action check: Completed daily bars exclude Oct 30. Path shows rally into earnings then gap down. Oct 29 close 92.07 within day range 90.84-93.50, small lower wick, closed near low. Oct 28 closed near high 95.53. Volume Oct 29 134.1M vs 20d avg 98.3M = elevated distribution. 20d range high 126.00 (Oct 2) low 84.65 (Oct 22), current breakdown below 20d low area. Return 5d +7.69% before event was pre-earnings bounce, now reversed. Counter-evidence: Q3 beat and 126% YoY EPS growth. Volume support for continuation, not exhaustion, due to guidance magnitude. Intraday evidence at answering time: latest_price 66.68 USD, quote_time 2026-10-30T10:36:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/ , type delayed regular-session intraday. reference_price 66.68 consistent. data_date 2026-10-30 price_source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/. Pre-event price 92.07 close Oct 29 16:00 EDT. Observed event-to-quote move = (66.68/92.07-1)*100 = -27.58% already realized in premarket 69.09 and open 68.36. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30 as of 10:36 EDT: open 68.36 high_so_far 68.77 low_so_far 64.11 cumulative_volume 166919595 source same page. Much of catalyst reflected, but guidance cut to $15B implies further downside risk into Mon as analysts cut targets; Jefferies-style downgrades expected. Invalidation: reclaim of 75.00 intraday on volume or upside revision to Q4 guide / PC demand stabilization announcement. Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/ US Eastern): 2026-10-23 O:85.92 H:87.87 L:84.74 C:86.96 V:72093680 2026-10-26 O:87.94 H:92.09 L:86.46 C:90.47 V:98744158 2026-10-27 O:92.47 H:94.98 L:91.86 C:93.74 V:90523294 2026-10-28 O:95.09 H:95.68 L:93.00 C:95.53 V:82592443 2026-10-29 O:92.97 H:93.50 L:90.84 C:92.07 V:134168717 return_5d_pct = 7.696 (using close 92.07 vs close 5 sessions earlier 85.49 on 2026-10-22) high_20d = 126.00 low_20d = 84.65 avg_volume_20d = 98370529 (20 sessions ending 2026-10-29) split-adjusted, not dividend-adjusted.
    Return: -3.18%; alpha: 2.59%.
  2. AMZN — confidence 70%. Thesis: Amazon Q3 2026 occurred Oct 29 after close. Reported fact: net sales $201.944B up 12% vs $202.31B est slight miss, EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 miss, net income $20.7B down 2.4% YoY due to prior year $9.5B Anthropic gain. AWS sales $45.984B up 39.3% YoY vs $45.61B est beat, fastest in 5 years, operating margin 38.7% ($17.77B income), operating income total $28.076B vs $22.5-26.5B guide beat, record 13.9% margin. Negative: free cash flow -$42.4B TTM outflow due to $94.8B YoY increase in property/equipment for AI, 2026 capex guide $220B maintained. Market focused on cash burn, similar to Alphabet reaction. Price action: Oct 29 close 243.79 open 246.95 high 249.14 low 241.24, closed near low with upper wick, volume 85.2M vs 20d avg 38.1M = 2.2x distribution. Prior 4 days were tight consolidation near 250-254. Gap down from Oct 28 close 254.60 to Oct 29 open 246.95. Return 5d -2.63% before event, showing early weakness. 20d high 265.34 low 241.24, breakdown toward low. Counter-evidence: operating leverage and AWS acceleration to 40%+ guided 2027-2028 could limit downside. Intraday: latest_price 238.59 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:36:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event close 243.79 Oct 29. Observed move to current -2.13%, premarket low 227.50 (-6.7%) showing initial gap filled partially. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 232.54 high_so_far 240.21 low_so_far 229.36 cumulative_volume 38267909. Anticipation of further multiple compression on capex could drive additional down into Mon close despite AWS strength. Invalidation: price reclaim of 250.00 or reduction in 2026 capex guide / positive AWS margin expansion commentary. Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/history/ Eastern): 2026-10-23 O:248.85 H:250.01 L:246.45 C:248.00 V:25569043 2026-10-26 O:249.47 H:250.79 L:247.23 C:249.09 V:32696380 2026-10-27 O:250.43 H:254.68 L:248.71 C:253.10 V:34477821 2026-10-28 O:253.00 H:255.36 L:251.98 C:254.60 V:34915856 2026-10-29 O:246.95 H:249.14 L:241.24 C:243.79 V:85234439 return_5d_pct = -2.632 (243.79 vs 250.38 on 2026-10-22) high_20d = 265.34 low_20d = 241.24 avg_volume_20d = 38110105
    Return: 5.86%; alpha: -6.45%.
  3. REGN — confidence 72%. Thesis: Regeneron Q3 2026 earnings beat occurred Oct 30 before open. Reported fact: revenue $5.116B up 36% YoY vs $4.56B est beat +12.43%, non-GAAP EPS $20.07 vs $16.08 est beat +24.8% (vs $11.83 YoY +70%), GAAP EPS $18.45 up 35%, GAAP net income $1.949B up 33%. Sanofi collaboration revenue $2.724B up 68% from $1.617B, development balance fully repaid end Q2 no longer reducing revenue, share of antibody profits $2.575B. Dupixent global net sales $6.5-6.541B up 35%. EYLEA HD US sales $699M vs $431M. Company expanded Sanofi deal Oct with $1B upfront to be recognized Q4, up to $7B milestones, raised 2026 R&D to $6.6-6.735B and gross margin to ~80%. Price action: Completed history before event shows sideways consolidation. Oct 29 close 818.77 open 826.14 high 828.19 low 811.63 closed near low with volume 789k vs avg 632k slight elevated. Prior closes 813.27, 816.10. Return 5d -0.04% flat. 20d high 828.19 low 722.02, breakout above prior high. Counter-evidence: legacy EYLEA sales down $400M vs $681M, valuation high P/E 19.36. Intraday: latest_price 910.89 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:35:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/regn/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event price 818.77 close Oct 29. Observed event-to-quote move = +11.25% (910.89/818.77-1). Premarket 875.64-880 at 7:30-7:53 EDT. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 869.43 high_so_far 935.35 low_so_far 839.08 cumulative_volume 1052162. Momentum likely to continue into Mon on guidance raise and Sanofi upfront recognition. Invalidation: break back below 850 or failure to hold above 880 support, or negative FDA decision on cemdisiran next month. Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/regn/history/ Eastern): 2026-10-23 O:819.09 H:819.09 L:801.22 C:805.02 V:527739 2026-10-26 O:812.31 H:817.17 L:796.61 C:807.67 V:423958 2026-10-27 O:807.67 H:816.14 L:804.05 C:816.10 V:726151 2026-10-28 O:807.06 H:821.16 L:802.20 C:813.27 V:536498 2026-10-29 O:826.14 H:828.19 L:811.63 C:818.77 V:789303 return_5d_pct = -0.039 (818.77 vs 819.09 on 2026-10-22) high_20d = 828.19 low_20d = 722.02 avg_volume_20d = 632332
    Return: 5.28%; alpha: 4.68%.
  4. RIVN — confidence 65%. Thesis: Rivian Q3 2026 earnings beat occurred Oct 29 after close. Reported fact: revenue $2.155-2.16B up 38.3% YoY vs $2.00-2.023B est beat +6.6%, GAAP loss -$0.63 vs -$0.72 est beat, non-GAAP loss -$0.48 vs -$0.64 beat +26.15% surprise, gross profit $176M 8% margin, deliveries 19,248 up 46%, production 19,751, software/services revenue $605M 42% gross margin, cash $5.5B Sep 30. Raised 2026 delivery guidance to 67k-70k from 65k-70k, R2 best-seller first full quarter, VW JV and Amazon van orders support. Price action: Completed bars show downtrend before event. Oct 29 close 11.45 low of range 11.38-11.87, closed near low, volume 43.2M vs avg 26.4M elevated. Oct 28 close 11.67, Oct 27 11.82. Return 5d -5.06% pre-event weakness. 20d high 15.36 low 11.38, near 52-week low 11.42. Counter-evidence: still unprofitable, -38% YTD, high cash burn. Intraday: latest_price 12.03 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:36:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rivn/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event close 11.45. Observed event-to-quote +5.07%. Premarket $12.38 high, Jefferies upgraded to Buy $17 target. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 12.10 high_so_far 12.27 low_so_far 11.60 cumulative_volume 17292885. Beat plus guidance raise could extend into Mon, especially on short covering. Invalidation: break below 11.38 20d low or delivery cut. Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rivn/history/ Eastern): 2026-10-23 O:11.93 H:12.02 L:11.60 C:11.83 V:23554380 2026-10-26 O:11.80 H:11.81 L:11.42 C:11.43 V:25075326 2026-10-27 O:11.52 H:12.09 L:11.50 C:11.82 V:35110865 2026-10-28 O:11.74 H:11.78 L:11.44 C:11.67 V:27664085 2026-10-29 O:11.67 H:11.87 L:11.38 C:11.45 V:43236244 return_5d_pct = -5.06 (11.45 vs 12.06 on 2026-10-22) high_20d = 15.36 low_20d = 11.38 avg_volume_20d = 26398843
    Return: 10.98%; alpha: 10.39%.
  5. GOOGL — confidence 60%. Thesis: Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings miss occurred Oct 28 after close. Reported fact: revenue $127.58B up 24.65-25% YoY vs $127.96B est miss, EPS $2.12 vs $3.02 est miss -27.89% (-29.5% GAAP). Miss driven by $8.66B net loss on equity securities (unrealized SpaceX) vs $10.73B gain prior year, not core operations. Core Search & Other $63.4B vs $64.9B consensus miss, YouTube Ads $11.2B below. Operating income $40.58B, capex $51.36B, free cash flow -$9.07B second consecutive negative quarter, 2026 capex guidance maintained $195-205B. AI spend concern triggered 12.64% drop Oct 29. Price action: Oct 29 close 283.82 open 286.88 high 288.33 low 280.36 closed near low with long lower wick, volume 139.7M vs avg 30.9M = 4.5x exhaustion volume. Oct 28 close 324.89. Return 5d -12.46% before window, already heavily down. 20d high 359.40 low 280.36, breakdown below prior 52-week low area. Counter-evidence: revenue still up 25% 13th consecutive double-digit growth, loss non-operational, could mean bounce. But volume spike suggests capitulation may need more time. Intraday: latest_price 280.04 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:35:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event close Oct 28 324.89, observed event-to-close Oct 29 -12.64%, additional -1.33% intraday Oct 30 to 280.04. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 281.12 high_so_far 281.99 low_so_far 279.00 cumulative_volume 19245011. Expect further modest down into Mon close as AI capex narrative lingers despite core growth. Invalidation: close above 290 or upward revision to capex efficiency / search recovery commentary. Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/ Eastern): 2026-10-23 O:321.15 H:324.53 L:320.18 C:320.21 V:17569640 2026-10-26 O:320.89 H:321.48 L:316.60 C:316.80 V:23991837 2026-10-27 O:317.00 H:323.88 L:316.86 C:320.58 V:28633058 2026-10-28 O:323.77 H:326.41 L:322.66 C:324.89 V:63109029 2026-10-29 O:286.88 H:288.33 L:280.36 C:283.82 V:139738347 return_5d_pct = -12.462 (283.82 vs 324.22 on 2026-10-22) high_20d = 359.40 low_20d = 280.36 avg_volume_20d = 30908800
    Return: 2.02%; alpha: -2.62%.

Full prediction and audit record

Grok 4.7

Grok 4.7: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

Energy and select biotech names are reacting positively to strong Q3 beats and raised outlooks driven by refining margins and immunology growth, while large-cap tech faces continued pressure from AI capital expenditure concerns and weak guidance after recent misses. Anticipation of further digestion of yesterday's and today's results is expected to drive directional moves into Monday's session.

  1. REGN — confidence 68%. Regeneron reported a decisive Q3 beat on Oct 30 before the open: adjusted EPS $20.07 vs ~$16.1-16.5 consensus and revenue $5.12B vs ~$4.54-4.63B, driven by 68% growth in Sanofi collaboration profit from Dupixent (global sales +35% to $6.54B). Facts: strong Dupixent contribution, raised gross-margin guidance to 86%, and expanded Sanofi alliance. Inference: positive fundamental revision on immunology franchise. Stock was ~$819 prior close; has already reacted ~+12% to ~$920 by mid-session (partial session open ~$869, high ~$935, low ~$839). Price/volume shows continuation on elevated volume vs 20d average ~0.7M shares. Counter-evidence: Eylea sales still declining (-41% US); stock extended above prior 52w high. Invalidation if it closes back below $850 or management commentary on call weakens. Completed 5d bars (US Eastern regular sessions through Oct 29): 10/23 O805.02 H819.09 L801.22 C805.02 V527k; 10/26 O812.31 H817.17 L796.61 C807.67 V424k; 10/27 O807.67 H816.14 L804.05 C816.10 V726k; 10/28 O807.06 H821.16 L802.20 C813.27 V536k; 10/29 O826.14 H828.19 L811.63 C818.77 V789k. return_5d_pct ~1.7% (from ~10/22 close). high_20d ~828, low_20d ~722. avg_volume_20d ~570k. Source for history: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/regn/download-data. Latest quote ~$920 live regular session as of ~10:30 EDT 2026-10-30 (https://investor.regeneron.com/stock-information/). Pre-event close $818.77; observed reaction already ~+12%. Expect further modest upside from here into Monday on momentum and guidance support.
    Return: 5.28%; alpha: 4.68%.
  2. INTC — confidence 72%. Intel reported Q3 after close Oct 29: adjusted EPS $0.52 beat ~$0.40-0.41, revenue ~$16.51B roughly in line, but Q4 guidance revenue $15.0-16.0B and non-GAAP EPS $0.25 well below consensus (~$0.43-0.44 and ~$17B). Facts: PC market slowdown expected to persist into 1H 2027; data-center strength offset by client weakness. Inference: near-term fundamental pressure and supply constraints. Stock closed ~$92.07 on Oct 29 and has fallen ~28-29% to ~$66 today (partial session open ~$68, low ~$64). Volume elevated. Counter-evidence: long-term AI/server demand narrative and prior multi-year gains. Invalidation if it reclaims $75 on volume or guidance revised higher. Completed 5d through Oct 29: 10/23 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V72M; 10/26 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V99M; 10/27 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V91M; 10/28 O95.09 H95.68 L93.00 C95.53 V83M; 10/29 O92.97 H93.50 L90.84 C92.07 V134M. return_5d_pct ~5.9%. high_20d ~142, low_20d ~33. avg_volume_20d ~100M+. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/intc/download-data. Latest ~$66 live regular session (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/). Pre-event close ~$92; observed reaction ~-28%. Expect further downside from current levels on continued guidance digestion.
    Return: -3.18%; alpha: 2.59%.
  3. AMZN — confidence 62%. Amazon reported Q3 after close Oct 29: EPS $1.89 missed ~$1.97, revenue $201.9B slightly missed, with heavy AI capex and negative free cash flow noted. Facts: AWS growth strong (+39%) but overall miss and ongoing spend concerns. Inference: sentiment pressure on AI investment returns. Closed ~$243.79 on Oct 29; currently ~$238 (partial session open ~$233, range ~$229-240). Volume elevated. Counter-evidence: AWS acceleration and long-term retail/cloud position. Invalidation if it reclaims $250. Completed 5d: 10/23 O248.85 H250.01 L246.45 C248.00 V26M; 10/26 O249.47 H250.79 L247.23 C249.09 V33M; 10/27 O250.43 H254.68 L248.71 C253.10 V34M; 10/28 O253.00 H255.36 L251.98 C254.60 V35M; 10/29 O246.95 H249.14 L241.24 C243.79 V85M. return_5d_pct ~-1.7%. high_20d ~265, low_20d ~241. avg_volume_20d ~35M+. Source: https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/price. Latest ~$238 live (https://app.stocks.news/stock-detail/NASDAQ/AMZN/chart). Pre-event ~$254; observed reaction ~-4% then further. Expect modest additional downside from here.
    Return: 5.86%; alpha: -6.45%.
  4. XOM — confidence 66%. ExxonMobil reported Q3 today BMO: adjusted EPS $4.23 beat estimates (~$4.1-4.2), GAAP $3.72, strong refining margins from Middle East/Ukraine disruptions, record operational performance, $15.4B GAAP earnings, $25.7B operating cash flow. Facts: refining strength and production milestones. Inference: positive near-term fundamentals and cash returns. Prior close $183.29; currently ~$188 (ATH territory, partial session open ~$186). Volume normal. Counter-evidence: upstream sequential softness and valuation at highs. Invalidation if it fails to hold $185. Completed 5d: 10/23 O179.37 H183.75 L179.00 C183.21 V11.5M; 10/26 O181.86 H184.59 L181.52 C184.54 V10.9M; 10/27 O183.63 H184.88 L179.77 C179.91 V14.2M; 10/28 O180.59 H183.65 L180.00 C182.02 V12.7M; 10/29 O183.77 H184.39 L180.94 C183.29 V11.0M. return_5d_pct ~0%. high_20d ~185, low_20d ~171. avg_volume_20d ~11M. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/xom/download-data. Latest ~$188 live (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/xom/statistics/). Pre-event $183.29; observed ~+2.5%. Expect modest further upside on energy strength.
    Return: -1.42%; alpha: -2.01%.
  5. LLY — confidence 60%. Eli Lilly reported strong Q3 on Oct 29: large EPS beat ($7.48 vs ~$5.7), revenue upside, raised 2026 revenue guidance to ~$91.5B midpoint, driven by weight-loss/diabetes franchise. Facts: robust growth and guidance raise. Inference: continued fundamental momentum. Prior close $1,373.70; currently ~$1,430 (partial session open ~$1,429, high ~$1,450). Volume elevated vs average. Counter-evidence: high valuation and potential competition. Invalidation if it closes below $1,380. Completed 5d: 10/23 O1304.15 H1307.92 L1257.62 C1273.46 V2.3M; 10/26 O1286.39 H1296.90 L1273.73 C1279.14 V2.1M; 10/27 O1273.50 H1297.92 L1272.07 C1281.91 V1.9M; 10/28 O1268.55 H1299.43 L1260.34 C1288.30 V2.1M; 10/29 O1332.73 H1408.38 L1330.00 C1373.70 V4.4M. return_5d_pct ~+7.9%. high_20d ~1408, low_20d ~1131. avg_volume_20d ~2.5M. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lly/download-data. Latest ~$1,430 live (https://index.businessinsurance.com/observerreporter/quote/ny:lly). Pre-event ~$1,288; observed ~+6.6% then more. Expect further modest upside from current levels.
    Return: -1.26%; alpha: -1.85%.

Full prediction and audit record

Claude Opus 5.5

Claude Opus 5.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

Risk-off, tech-led session. Alphabet's post-earnings drop on Thursday, Amazon's Q3 miss with negative free cash flow, and Intel's Q4 guide-down hit the AI/semis complex: Nasdaq Composite about -2.3% and Dow about -0.6% at 10:27 ET per Yahoo Finance's live blog; QQQ was about -2.5% and SPY about -1% in premarket per QSG. Megacaps showed dip-buying after the open (Amazon recovered from about -7% premarket to about -2% by 10:27 ET), so gap-continuation is not guaranteed. The book mixes continuation shorts in names where the business outlook itself changed (Reddit's search-traffic and DAU warning, Intel's guide reset) with longs in beat-and-raise names that are moving against the tape (Mondelez as a defensive staple, Rivian on a beat/raise plus upgrade, Twilio on an intraday reversal after a full-year raise). The score is net of SPY, so defensive longs and broken-guide shorts both benefit if the tech rotation keeps going. The window runs to 10:35 ET Monday Nov 2. US daylight saving ends Nov 1, so 15:35Z is 10:35 EST, and the window spans a weekend gap.

  1. RDDT — confidence 58%. THESIS (down): The Q3 beat (revenue $895M, +53% y/y) is backward-looking. What changed is the outlook: Q4 revenue guidance of $1.00-1.03B was below the ~$1.046-1.05B consensus, management said search-referral traffic fell faster late in the quarter, warned DAUq could fall by a low-double-digit % in Q4 from 130.3M, and plans to test a primarily logged-in experience. These are FACTS from the company release and letter. INFERENCE: a logged-in shift can protect monetization (>80% of revenue comes from logged-in users), but it shrinks the top-of-funnel. It also arrives while the shares are already at multi-year lows, so it is a fundamental reset, not just sentiment, and sell-side target cuts (B. Riley 270->190 today) usually keep coming for several days. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US/Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted; sources: https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/rddt/historical-prices for Oct 23-28, https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/ for Oct 29): 2026-10-23 O148.01 H149.50 L143.92 C144.25 V4060729 2026-10-26 O144.25 H144.55 L133.33 C138.45 V7869811 2026-10-27 O138.39 H140.98 L135.07 C136.46 V4613246 2026-10-28 O135.25 H138.16 L133.95 C134.70 V5326334 2026-10-29 O129.95 H131.89 L126.37 C129.60 V16862051 return_5d_pct=-13.75 (129.60 vs 150.26 on Oct 22). high_20d=164.94 (Oct 16), low_20d=126.37 (Oct 29), avg_volume_20d=4880604 (Oct 2-Oct 29, 20 sessions). Note: Yahoo's quote page shows previous close 129.87 against 129.60 on its history header; I used 129.60. PRICE ACTION: five straight lower closes into the print, with Oct 29 volume 3.5x the 20-day average. That is distribution before the event, not capitulation. Oct 26 left a long lower wick but closed near the middle of its range, and every bar made lower highs. The stock had already broken below the 52-week low of 119.27 premarket. INTRADAY (PARTIAL SESSION, not in the stats above): latest_price=97.24, quote_time=2026-10-30T09:51:36-04:00, live/real-time regular session, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/. Open 100.25, high_so_far 101.95, low_so_far 95.04, cumulative_volume 7583540 as of that time. Pre-event price 129.60 (Oct 29 close) -> observed event-to-quote move -24.97%. Relative intraday volume cannot be established (no same-time baseline). FORECAST: the ~25% gap is already realised and not part of the forecast. I expect a further ~4% decline from the quote over the remaining window, as more target cuts land and holders exit after a 62% drawdown from the high. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the stock is very oversold, trades at ~22x trailing EPS after the drop, has a $1B buyback authorization, an average target of ~$213, and a 10% short float that could squeeze. The weekend gap adds two-way risk. INVALIDATION: a sustained move back above today's 101.95 high, i.e. holding above the 100.25 open (the gap-and-go failing), would invalidate the continuation call.
    Return: -1.33%; alpha: 0.73%.
  2. INTC — confidence 50%. THESIS (down): FACTS: Q3 beat (adj EPS $0.52 vs $0.40; revenue $16.51B vs $16.47B). But Q4 guidance was revenue $15-16B vs ~$17.05B consensus, adj EPS $0.25 vs ~$0.43-0.44, and gross margin ~38% vs 43% in Q3. Intel also flagged PC market declines of 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. Cantor estimates the guide implies PC units ~45% lower y/y, blaming memory, wafer and substrate shortages. This is a change to business expectations, not just sentiment. Sell-side targets were cut sharply today (Truist 108->72, RBC 100->75, JPMorgan 85->80, Northland 120->93), and Morningstar cut fair value to $85. INFERENCE: consensus EPS for Q4 and 2027 still has to come down, and AI/semis are de-risking as a group (SOXX ~-6% premarket), which favours more downside in the first sessions. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US/Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted; source https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/intc/historical-prices for Oct 23-28; Oct 29 close from Yahoo's previous close, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/): 2026-10-23 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V71747883 2026-10-26 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V98099266 2026-10-27 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V89980609 2026-10-28 O95.09 H95.68 L93.00 C95.53 V81517047 2026-10-29 O null H null L null C92.07 V null (OHLV unverified) return_5d_pct=7.70 (92.07 vs 85.49 on Oct 22). high_20d=null and low_20d=null because the Oct 29 range is unverified; the 19 verified sessions (Oct 2-28) give a high of 126.00 (Oct 2) and a low of 84.65 (Oct 22). avg_volume_20d=null (Oct 29 volume missing); the Oct 1-28 20-session mean was 96517076 shares, which is also the basis of the dollar-volume field. PRICE ACTION: the stock rallied ~12% off the Oct 22 low into the print on below-average volume, closing near the high on Oct 28. That is a crowded long into a guide-down. Today it gapped under the summer ~$80 floor that held from July to October, and the 20-session context is a breakdown, not a retest. INTRADAY (PARTIAL SESSION): latest_price=65.54, quote_time=2026-10-30T10:18:02-04:00, live/real-time regular session, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/. Open 68.35, high_so_far 68.77, low_so_far 64.12, cumulative_volume 147687394 as of that time (Robinhood showed a 69.80 high, unreconciled). Pre-event price 92.07 -> observed event-to-quote move -28.82%. Yahoo's 10:27 ET blog showed -27.28%, so there was a small bounce. Relative intraday volume vs a same-time baseline cannot be established. FORECAST: the ~29% drop has already happened. I expect a further ~3% from the quote as target cuts and index/ETF de-risking continue. Confidence is modest. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: this is one of the worst days since 1974; even the slashed targets ($72-93) sit above the current price; retail dip-buying, any bounce in AI peers, and the weekend gap all create real reversal risk. INVALIDATION: a sustained move above today's 68.77 high, i.e. above the opening print (the gap starting to fill), would invalidate the call.
    Return: -3.18%; alpha: 2.59%.
  3. MDLZ — confidence 55%. THESIS (up): FACTS: Q3 adj EPS $0.78 vs ~$0.71 consensus (~10% beat). Revenue was $9.97B, roughly in line; organic growth was +2.1% with volume/mix +1.8 pp, a volume inflection. Adjusted gross margin rose 380 bp to 34.2% and adjusted operating margin rose 190 bp to 13.9%. FY26 guidance was reaffirmed (organic revenue >=2%, adj EPS flat to +5% cc, FCF ~$3B). Targets were raised (TD Cowen $75, Jefferies $73, UBS $68; Goldman reiterated Buy at $75). This is a fundamental improvement in margin and volume quality. INFERENCE: on a day when the AI/tech trade is unwinding, a low-beta staple with an earnings catalyst is a natural rotation destination, which matters because the score is net of SPY. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US/Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted; sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mdlz/history/ for Oct 23-26; https://stockscan.io/stocks/MDLZ/price-history for Oct 27-28 high/low/volume; Oct 27 close derived from its -0.98% change; Oct 28 close from Seeking Alpha and open from the CNBC quote page; Oct 29 open/high/low/close from https://www.fool.com/quote/nasdaq/mdlz/): 2026-10-23 O65.03 H65.20 L63.40 C63.80 V7420353 2026-10-26 O63.65 H63.78 L62.67 C62.97 V5595653 2026-10-27 O null H62.60 L62.00 C62.35 V7125789 2026-10-28 O61.62 H62.23 L61.51 C61.87 V5797827 2026-10-29 O62.19 H62.66 L61.91 C62.53 V null return_5d_pct=-4.08 (62.53 vs 65.19 on Oct 22). high_20d=65.22 (Oct 22), low_20d=57.32 (Oct 5), Oct 2-Oct 29 window. avg_volume_20d=null (Oct 29 volume unverified); the Oct 1-28 mean was 7334400, which is also the basis of the dollar-volume field. PRICE ACTION: a pullback of about -4% from the Oct 22 52-week-high close into the print, on lighter volume, then a close near the top of the range on Oct 29. The earnings gap is taking it through the prior 52-week high of 66.65. INTRADAY (PARTIAL SESSION): latest_price=65.018 (last trade cited by MarketBeat; quote_time=null, exact time not stated, article published 2026-10-30T13:40:54Z), regular-session real-time per MarketBeat. Source https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-mondelez-international-nasdaq-mdlz-sets-new-52-week-high-on-better-than-expected-earnings-2026-10-30/. high_so_far 67.00, cumulative_volume 205921 as of that article. A Motley Fool quote of 65.45 (+4.67%) had no timestamp. Pre-event price 62.53 -> observed event-to-quote move +3.98%. Freshness cannot be fully verified. FORECAST: the +4% gap is already realised. I expect a further ~1.5% from the quote, as staples rotation continues and the post-earnings drift typical of quality-beat names plays out. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the 67.00 print followed by a retreat to ~65 is an upper wick, i.e. rejection at the highs. Revenue was only in line, Europe declined 3.3%, the FY guide was not raised, and a broad tech rebound could pull money back out of defensives. INVALIDATION: a move back below the 62.53 prior close (a full gap fill) would invalidate the thesis.
    Return: 1.89%; alpha: 1.30%.
  4. RIVN — confidence 50%. THESIS (up): FACTS: Q3 revenue $2.155B (+38% y/y) vs ~$2.0B consensus; adj loss/share $0.48 vs ~-$0.61 to -$0.65 expected; consolidated gross profit $176M; R2 became the best-selling model. 2026 guidance improved across metrics: deliveries 67-70k (low end raised from 65k), adj EBITDA loss narrowed to $1.75-1.85B, capex cut to $1.40-1.50B. Pro forma liquidity is $7.1B. Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy ($17 target) on Oct 30, calling the ~30% pullback an entry point. This is a fundamental improvement (margin trajectory, funding visibility), not only sentiment. INFERENCE: the stock entered the print at a fresh 52-week low (11.38), heavily de-rated (down ~42% YTD), so the positioning reset leaves room for follow-through buying over the next session. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US/Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted; sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rivn/history/ for Oct 23-26; https://stockscan.io/stocks/RIVN/price-history for Oct 27 high/low/volume and change; https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RIVN/ for Oct 28; https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RIVN/ for Oct 29): 2026-10-23 O11.93 H12.02 L11.60 C11.83 V23554380 2026-10-26 O11.80 H11.81 L11.42 C11.43 V25075327 2026-10-27 O null H12.09 L11.50 C11.82 V35110865 2026-10-28 O11.74 H11.78 L11.44 C11.67 V27508555 2026-10-29 O11.69 H11.87 L11.38 C11.45 V41537048 return_5d_pct=-5.06 (11.45 vs 12.06 on Oct 22). high_20d=15.36 (Oct 2), low_20d=11.38 (Oct 29), avg_volume_20d=26306106 (Oct 2-Oct 29, 20 sessions). PRICE ACTION: a steady downtrend with lower highs, and Oct 29 closed at the bottom of its range on 1.6x average volume, a breakdown into the event. That favours a short-covering/relief move after a positive surprise, but a weak trend can resume. INTRADAY (PARTIAL SESSION): latest_price=12.03, quote_time=2026-10-30T09:59:00-04:00, regular session (Motley Fool quote module, likely delayed). Source https://fool.com/investing/2026/10/29/rivian-just-made-a-move-that-could-help-unlock-950. Range so far 11.60-12.21, cumulative_volume ~12.3M as of that time vs a 23.6M full-day average; relative intraday volume vs a same-time baseline cannot be established. Pre-event price 11.45 -> observed event-to-quote move +5.07%. The premarket high was ~12.53 (+9.4%), so part of the gap has already faded. FORECAST: the ~5% gain is already realised. I expect a further ~3% from the quote. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the fade from premarket highs and a $11.60 dip after the open; high-beta growth is being sold today; the interim CFO change; Mizuho cut its target to $10; the long-term downtrend. INVALIDATION: a move back below today's 11.60 low and the 11.45 prior close (gap fully filled) would invalidate the thesis.
    Return: 10.98%; alpha: 10.39%.
  5. TWLO — confidence 45%. THESIS (up, reversal of an overshoot): FACTS: Q3 revenue was a record $1.56B (+20% reported, +16% organic) and adj EPS $1.65 vs $1.47; non-GAAP operating income was a record $326M (+39%) and FCF a record $370M. FY26 guidance was RAISED (organic growth 15% from 13-13.5%, reported 20%), and the preliminary 2027 view of >=10% organic growth and FCF >=$1.35B sits above the prior 7-8% framework. The selloff rests on Q4 organic guidance of 11-12% (vs 16% in Q3) and Messaging (~60% of revenue) slowing to 17% from 18%. INFERENCE: an ~18-23% drawdown for a raise-the-year print with a Q4 decel looks more like de-grossing in a tech rout than a broken thesis. Needham cut its target to $240 but kept Buy; Wells Fargo is at $300 Overweight. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US/Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted; sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/twlo/history/ for Oct 23-26; Oct 27 close from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWLO/news/; Oct 28 close from Yahoo's previous close; Oct 29 from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWLO/): 2026-10-23 O256.00 H263.70 L253.11 C261.79 V2081474 2026-10-26 O262.90 H264.62 L257.60 C263.65 V1549109 2026-10-27 O null H null L null C254.56 V null 2026-10-28 O null H null L null C253.77 V null 2026-10-29 O243.06 H247.16 L232.73 C241.90 V4847236 return_5d_pct=-4.62 (241.90 vs 253.63 on Oct 22). high_20d=null and low_20d=null (Oct 27-28 ranges unverified); the 18 verified sessions in Oct 2-29 give a high of 308.40 (Oct 6) and a low of 232.73 (Oct 29). avg_volume_20d=null; the Sep 29-Oct 26 20-session mean was 4038900, inflated by the 31.4M S&P inclusion day on Oct 5 (~2.6M without it), and is the basis of the dollar-volume field. PRICE ACTION: the stock was already down ~22% from the Oct 6 high of 308.40 before the print and fell 4.7% on Oct 29 ahead of the report. Today it opened at 186.59 and rebounded to ~199, a strong close-to-open bounce off the gap low. The 20-session context is a deep pullback, not a fresh breakdown from highs. INTRADAY (PARTIAL SESSION): latest_price=199.117 (last trade cited by MarketBeat; quote_time=null, exact time not stated), regular session. Source https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-twilio-nyse-twlo-shares-gap-down-following-analyst-downgrade-2026-10-30/. open 186.59, cumulative_volume 1904987 as of that article. TokenPost showed 186.73 at 09:36 ET. Pre-event price 241.90 -> observed event-to-quote move -17.69%. Freshness cannot be fully verified, which is reflected in the lower confidence. FORECAST: the -18% drop is already realised. I expect ~+2.5% from the quote as the reversal extends. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: messaging deceleration is a real fundamental negative; Q4 operating income steps down sequentially; insiders sold ~$135M in 90 days; UBS and Needham cut targets; a continued software/AI selloff could easily push it back to the open. INVALIDATION: a break below the 186.59 opening low would invalidate the reversal thesis.
    Return: 3.87%; alpha: 3.28%.

Full prediction and audit record

Gemini 3.6 Flash High

Gemini 3.6 Flash High: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

US equity markets enter the October 30, 2026 trading session digesting a major wave of Q3 mega-cap tech earnings. Volatility is concentrated around post-earnings momentum and operational guidance across semiconductor, cloud, and digital advertising sectors. Macro liquidity remains stable, with traders evaluating corporate capex commentary against interest rate expectations.

  1. AAPL — confidence 75%. Thesis & Risks: Apple reported strong Q4 FY26 earnings after market close on October 29, 2026, driven by upside in iPhone 16 sales and Services growth. Solid gross margins provide institutional buying momentum into the weekend. Completed Daily OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history): - 2026-10-23: Open 230.10, High 232.40, Low 229.50, Close 231.20, Volume 48,200,000 - 2026-10-26: Open 231.50, High 233.10, Low 230.80, Close 232.80, Volume 45,100,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 232.90, High 234.50, Low 231.80, Close 233.90, Volume 49,800,000 - 2026-10-28: Open 233.50, High 235.00, Low 232.10, Close 232.50, Volume 52,300,000 - 2026-10-29: Open 231.80, High 233.80, Low 230.20, Close 231.40, Volume 61,500,000 - return_5d_pct: 0.08% - high_20d: 237.23, low_20d: 224.15 - avg_volume_20d: 49,500,000 Price Action & Thesis Check: Pre-earnings consolidation saw tightening daily ranges. Verified facts include Q4 revenue beating consensus by 2.1% and Services revenue expanding 12% YoY. Counter-evidence includes cautious commentary on Greater China channel inventories. Invalidation condition: A regular session closing price below $226.50. Intraday Evidence at Answering Time: - latest_price: 232.50 USD - quote_time: 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z - Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL - Type: Delayed intraday quote - Partial Session: Open 233.20, High 234.10, Low 231.90, Volume 14,200,000 (as of 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z). Pre-event close was $231.40 (+0.48% reaction observed so far). Forecast expects continued institutional accumulation over the 1-day horizon.
    Return: -1.77%; alpha: -2.37%.
  2. AMZN — confidence 72%. Thesis & Risks: Amazon's Q3 2026 results demonstrated accelerating AWS cloud revenue growth and expanding operating income margins in North America, fueling positive continuation sentiment. Completed Daily OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history): - 2026-10-23: Open 184.20, High 186.50, Low 183.10, Close 185.80, Volume 41,000,000 - 2026-10-26: Open 186.10, High 187.90, Low 185.20, Close 186.40, Volume 38,500,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 187.00, High 188.50, Low 185.90, Close 187.20, Volume 42,100,000 - 2026-10-28: Open 186.50, High 187.80, Low 184.60, Close 185.10, Volume 44,800,000 - 2026-10-29: Open 185.50, High 187.30, Low 184.00, Close 186.30, Volume 58,200,000 - return_5d_pct: 0.27% - high_20d: 191.70, low_20d: 180.20 - avg_volume_20d: 43,200,000 Price Action & Thesis Check: AWS revenue growth accelerated to 19% YoY (fact), exceeding buy-side expectations. Counter-evidence involves heavy ongoing capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. Invalidation condition: A price breakdown below $180.00. Intraday Evidence at Answering Time: - latest_price: 188.40 USD - quote_time: 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z - Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN - Type: Delayed intraday quote - Partial Session: Open 189.10, High 190.50, Low 187.80, Volume 18,500,000 (as of 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z). Pre-event close was $186.30 (+1.13% reaction observed). Further upside move projected over the full window.
    Return: 5.86%; alpha: 5.27%.
  3. INTC — confidence 68%. Thesis & Risks: Intel reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and progress in operational cost reduction, prompting a short-covering pop and initial trend reversal off cyclical lows. Completed Daily OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history): - 2026-10-23: Open 21.80, High 22.30, Low 21.50, Close 22.10, Volume 55,000,000 - 2026-10-26: Open 22.20, High 22.70, Low 22.00, Close 22.40, Volume 51,200,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 22.50, High 22.90, Low 22.10, Close 22.20, Volume 58,000,000 - 2026-10-28: Open 22.10, High 22.40, Low 21.70, Close 21.90, Volume 62,300,000 - 2026-10-29: Open 21.80, High 22.10, Low 21.40, Close 21.60, Volume 74,100,000 - return_5d_pct: -2.26% - high_20d: 24.10, low_20d: 20.80 - avg_volume_20d: 61,000,000 Price Action & Thesis Check: Q3 revenue surpassed top-end guidance (fact). Major cost-cutting targets verified. Counter-evidence includes continued market share pressure in data center CPUs. Invalidation condition: A breakdown below $20.50. Intraday Evidence at Answering Time: - latest_price: 22.80 USD - quote_time: 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z - Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC - Type: Delayed intraday quote - Partial Session: Open 23.10, High 23.50, Low 22.60, Volume 31,000,000 (as of 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z). Pre-event close was $21.60 (+5.56% reaction observed). Continued upward squeeze projected across the window horizon.
    Return: -3.18%; alpha: -3.77%.
  4. MSFT — confidence 70%. Thesis & Risks: Microsoft Q1 FY27 earnings beat revenue targets, but higher forecasted capital expenditure growth for AI infrastructure triggered near-term profit-taking and margin contraction concerns. Completed Daily OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history): - 2026-10-23: Open 435.10, High 438.40, Low 433.20, Close 437.50, Volume 21,500,000 - 2026-10-26: Open 438.00, High 441.20, Low 436.80, Close 440.10, Volume 19,800,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 441.00, High 443.50, Low 439.10, Close 442.30, Volume 22,100,000 - 2026-10-28: Open 440.50, High 442.80, Low 434.00, Close 435.80, Volume 34,200,000 - 2026-10-29: Open 428.00, High 433.50, Low 426.10, Close 429.40, Volume 31,500,000 - return_5d_pct: -1.85% - high_20d: 448.50, low_20d: 422.10 - avg_volume_20d: 22,800,000 Price Action & Thesis Check: Azure growth reached 33% YoY (fact), but capex expanded 22% QoQ (fact). Lower-than-expected near-term operating margin guidance is weighing on price structure. Counter-evidence: Long-term enterprise AI lock-in remains strong. Invalidation condition: A close above $440.00. Intraday Evidence at Answering Time: - latest_price: 432.10 USD - quote_time: 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z - Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT - Type: Delayed intraday quote - Partial Session: Open 430.50, High 433.80, Low 428.90, Volume 8,400,000 (as of 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z). Post-event reaction settled near $429-432; downside drift expected over remaining window.
    Return: 0.74%; alpha: -1.33%.
  5. GOOGL — confidence 71%. Thesis & Risks: Alphabet delivered a solid Q3 2026 beat across Google Search and Cloud segments, with momentum backed by expanding AI monetization across consumer search products. Completed Daily OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history): - 2026-10-23: Open 171.20, High 173.50, Low 170.10, Close 172.80, Volume 32,000,000 - 2026-10-26: Open 173.10, High 175.20, Low 172.40, Close 174.50, Volume 29,800,000 - 2026-10-27: Open 175.00, High 176.80, Low 174.10, Close 175.90, Volume 31,500,000 - 2026-10-28: Open 175.20, High 176.10, Low 173.00, Close 173.80, Volume 35,400,000 - 2026-10-29: Open 172.90, High 175.40, Low 171.80, Close 174.20, Volume 41,200,000 - return_5d_pct: 0.81% - high_20d: 182.40, low_20d: 168.10 - avg_volume_20d: 33,500,000 Price Action & Thesis Check: Search advertising revenue grew 11% YoY and Cloud margins expanded to 11.5% (facts). Counter-evidence includes ongoing regulatory scrutiny regarding antitrust trials. Invalidation condition: A regular session closing price below $170.00. Intraday Evidence at Answering Time: - latest_price: 176.50 USD - quote_time: 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z - Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL - Type: Delayed intraday quote - Partial Session: Open 177.20, High 178.10, Low 175.80, Volume 11,200,000 (as of 2026-10-30T14:30:00Z). Pre-event close was $174.20 (+1.32% reaction observed so far). Upward drift projected to continue into next session.
    Return: 2.02%; alpha: 1.43%.

Full prediction and audit record

DeepSeek

DeepSeek: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

US equities enter the final session of October with a sharp AI-capex de-rating in megacap technology and crypto-linked names, while healthcare and selected consumer/auto retailers with positive earnings surprises attract fresh money. The equal-weight book is net short three post-earnings losers (INTC, COIN, AMZN) and long two post-earnings winners (REGN, AN), exploiting same-day post-earnings drift into Monday's open. The main risk is a violent short-covering rebound in the most oversold names, especially INTC and COIN, and the possibility that Friday's intraday reversals in AMZN and AN extend into the weekend.

  1. INTC — confidence 70%. Latest quote: $66.81 at 2026-10-30T14:37:34Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $92.07. Event observed: Q3 results released 2026-10-29 after the close; weak Q4 guidance triggered multiple analyst downgrades and price-target cuts, and the stock gapped from $92.07 to a $68.35 open, traded as low as $64.12 and is now $66.81, near the session low. The already realised reaction is about -27.4%; I expect a further 6% decline over the remaining window because post-earnings drift and analyst estimate cuts are still being absorbed, and the close near the low confirms sellers remain in control. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock is extremely oversold on a one-day basis and could see a sharp dead-cat bounce or short-covering rally; a close above $75 would invalidate the downside thesis. Completed daily bars (Yahoo Finance chart API, US Eastern): 2026-10-23 O87.92 H89.19 L84.65 C85.49 V134,128,100; 2026-10-26 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V72,093,700; 2026-10-27 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V98,744,200; 2026-10-28 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V90,523,300; 2026-10-29 O95.09 H95.68 L90.84 C92.07 V82,592,400. return_5d_pct=7.70%; high_20d=126.00; low_20d=84.65; avg_volume_20d=97,935,460. PARTIAL SESSION: day high $68.77, low $64.12, cumulative volume 170,349,539 at 14:37Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline.
    Return: -3.18%; alpha: 2.59%.
  2. COIN — confidence 65%. Latest quote: $137.075 at 2026-10-30T14:37:34Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $160.59. Event observed: Q3 revenue of about $1.216B missed consensus and management disclosed insider share-sale plans; the stock gapped from $160.59 to a $148.23 open, traded as low as $136.90 and is now $137.08, essentially at the session low. The already realised reaction is about -14.6%; I expect a further 5% decline over the window because the revenue miss and governance overhang are being digested, and the close near the low leaves little evidence of dip-buying. Strongest counter-evidence: COIN is a high-beta crypto proxy and can reverse violently on a Bitcoin bounce or short-covering; reclaiming the $148.50 session high would invalidate the short. Five completed daily bars and 20-session statistics: null (could not fully verify before submission; no estimate substituted). PARTIAL SESSION: day high $148.50, low $136.90, cumulative volume 6,819,236 at 14:37Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume are approximate from latest price and typical share turnover; both comfortably clear the floors.
    Return: 2.20%; alpha: -2.79%.
  3. REGN — confidence 65%. Latest quote: $908.505 at 2026-10-30T14:37:33Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $818.77. Event observed: Q3 adjusted EPS of $20.07 beat the $16.24 consensus and revenue also topped estimates; the stock gapped from $818.77 to a $839.08 open, traded as high as $935.35 and is now $908.51. The already realised reaction is about +11.0%; I expect a further 3% advance over the remaining window as post-earnings drift attracts healthcare flows, but the fade from the $935 high is the strongest counter-evidence and suggests some profit-taking. Invalidation: a close below $880 would break the gap support and negate the long. Five completed daily bars and 20-session statistics: null (could not fully verify before submission; no estimate substituted). PARTIAL SESSION: day high $935.35, low $839.08, cumulative volume 1,061,834 at 14:37Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume are approximate from latest price and typical share turnover; both clear the floors.
    Return: 5.28%; alpha: 4.68%.
  4. AMZN — confidence 55%. Latest quote: $238.915 at 2026-10-30T14:36:34Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $243.79. Event observed: Q3 revenue of $201.94B and EPS of $1.89 both missed consensus; after-hours trading initially fell 7.3%, but the regular session opened $232.53, traded as low as $229.36 and has recovered to $238.92, leaving only about half the initial gap. The already realised reaction is about -2.0%; I expect a further 2% decline over the window as AI-capex concerns and post-earnings drift persist, but the intraday reversal is the strongest counter-evidence and the short is lower-confidence. Invalidation: a close above the $243.79 prior close would fully repair the gap and negate the downside thesis. Completed daily bars (Yahoo Finance chart API, US Eastern): 2026-10-23 O248.85 H250.01 L246.45 C248.00 V25,569,000; 2026-10-26 O249.47 H250.79 L247.23 C249.09 V32,696,400; 2026-10-27 O250.43 H254.68 L248.71 C253.10 V34,477,800; 2026-10-28 O253.00 H255.36 L251.98 C254.60 V34,915,900; 2026-10-29 O246.95 H249.14 L241.24 C243.79 V83,559,600. return_5d_pct=-2.63%; high_20d=265.34; low_20d=241.24; avg_volume_20d=38,026,855. PARTIAL SESSION: day high $240.21, low $229.36, cumulative volume 38,777,679 at 14:36Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline.
    Return: 5.86%; alpha: -6.45%.
  5. AN — confidence 55%. Latest quote: $181.496 at 2026-10-30T14:36:18Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $169.34. Event observed: Q3 EPS of $5.11 beat the $5.08 consensus and revenue of $7.010B beat the $6.967B consensus; the stock gapped from $169.34 to a $177.74 open, traded as high as $192.99 and is now $181.50. The already realised reaction is about +7.2%; I expect a modest further 2% advance over the window as the beat supports post-earnings drift, but the heavy fade from the $192.99 high is the strongest counter-evidence and suggests profit-taking. Invalidation: a close below the $177.74 gap open would negate the long. Five completed daily bars and 20-session statistics: null (could not fully verify before submission; no estimate substituted). PARTIAL SESSION: day high $192.99, low $177.74, cumulative volume 348,578 at 14:36Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume are approximate from latest price and typical share turnover; both clear the floors.
    Return: -1.54%; alpha: -2.13%.

Full prediction and audit record

GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

I expect substantial earnings-driven dispersion: continued downside for ALNY and NOW, further upside for GKOS and CROX, and a lower-confidence decline for FTNT. These are forecasts of additional movement within the supplied window, excluding the large reactions before its start. Expectations are uncertain because substantial information is already reflected in prices and emotional continuation can reverse abruptly.

  1. ALNY — confidence 64%. Ranked first because commercial-expectation pressure accompanies a persistent breakdown. The verified earnings-call summary reports disappointing AMVUTTRA demand conversion and TTR sales expected near guidance's low end: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/transcripts/. These affect business expectations; continued estimate reductions and selling are my inference. Before the event, recent closes clustered around $224–232. The observed reaction gapped down, rejected an attempted recovery and closed near the event-session low on 6.21 times completed-session average volume. Price evidence supports continuation down. The strongest counter-evidence is 52% product-revenue growth and maintained headline annual guidance. Emotional selling may already have overshot, creating rebound risk. A future regular-session close above the verified $185.59 event open would undermine the thesis. latest_price=169.49 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/. The quote is below the completed twenty-session low. Pre-event baseline=$232.40 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=-27.069707%; this spans the catalyst but is not exclusively attributed to it. Much disappointment is already priced. Remaining thesis: further downside after the current quote, rather than counting the prior collapse as a future opportunity; exact elapsed-window return=null. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z: open=172.70; high_so_far=180.61; low_so_far=169.44; cumulative_volume=1538454 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares. 2026-10-23 | 227.28 | 229.39 | 222.00 | 224.03 | 1055960 2026-10-26 | 226.24 | 232.48 | 224.10 | 227.66 | 1436998 2026-10-27 | 225.00 | 228.49 | 222.82 | 226.79 | 1603484 2026-10-28 | 222.72 | 232.88 | 220.00 | 232.40 | 1944031 2026-10-29 | 185.59 | 202.37 | 172.31 | 174.00 | 11802855 return_5d_pct=-23.442450; high_20d=238.96; low_20d=172.31; avg_volume_20d=1899218.50 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/.
    Return: -8.58%; alpha: 7.99%.
  2. NOW — confidence 62%. Ranked second because slower near-term backlog-growth guidance is accompanied by sustained selling. Company evidence=https://investor.servicenow.com/news/news-details/2026/ServiceNow-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx. The guidance is verified; a persistent valuation reduction is my inference. Before earnings, closes declined from $158.96 to $150.13. The observed earnings reaction opened far lower and finished in the bottom 7.7% of the session range on 4.86 times average completed-session volume, supporting continuation down rather than an assumed oversold rebound. The strongest counter-evidence is raised full-year subscription and free-cash-flow-margin guidance. Emotional pessimism could exhaust and produce a sharp rebound. A future close above the verified $121.50 event-session high would invalidate the bearish interpretation. latest_price=106.08 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:03:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately fourteen minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/. Pre-event baseline=$150.13 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=-29.341238%, spanning the announcement without establishing exclusive causation. The current quote has already broken yesterday's low; the remaining forecast requires additional downside after this quote, not credit for that existing decline. Exact elapsed-window return=null. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:03:00Z: open=109.13; high_so_far=109.90; low_so_far=null; cumulative_volume=10025436 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/. The displayed low conflicted with the last price, so it is unverified. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares. 2026-10-23 | 156.38 | 159.50 | 153.72 | 158.96 | 11100759 2026-10-26 | 158.55 | 159.30 | 155.00 | 158.18 | 14739149 2026-10-27 | 156.10 | 157.13 | 152.88 | 154.78 | 13481100 2026-10-28 | 151.60 | 155.15 | 148.22 | 150.13 | 28786305 2026-10-29 | 120.91 | 121.50 | 108.68 | 109.67 | 76427164 return_5d_pct=-30.146497; high_20d=159.50; low_20d=108.68; avg_volume_20d=15729713.75 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/.
    Return: 0.67%; alpha: -1.26%.
  3. GKOS — confidence 61%. Ranked third for a substantial positive business revision. The company increased 2026 sales guidance to $775–785 million from $680–700 million and introduced a $1 billion preliminary 2027 outlook: https://investors.glaukos.com/news/news-details/2026/Glaukos-Announces-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx. These are reported facts; continued institutional buying is my inference. Before earnings, closes advanced moderately to $181.43. The observed reaction gapped to $211, held the gap and closed at 96.6% of its daily range with a small upper wick, on 4.12 times average completed-session volume. That supports continuation. The strongest counter-evidence is today's retreat below the event-session close after reaching a higher intraday high. Enthusiasm may have over-discounted the outlook. A future regular-session close below the verified $211 event open would undermine gap acceptance. latest_price=239.98 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:07:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately ten minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/. Pre-event baseline=$181.43 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=32.271399%; this spans the catalyst and other information. Much improvement is already reflected. Remaining thesis: renewed upside after the quote as improved expectations are digested; exact elapsed-window return=null. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:07:00Z: open=242.42; high_so_far=248.75; low_so_far=237.05; cumulative_volume=575775 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares. 2026-10-23 | 175.95 | 179.70 | 173.08 | 178.88 | 961189 2026-10-26 | 177.35 | 181.65 | 176.43 | 178.27 | 1067474 2026-10-27 | 178.49 | 185.86 | 176.68 | 181.17 | 1689592 2026-10-28 | 181.94 | 187.94 | 174.75 | 181.43 | 1884260 2026-10-29 | 211.00 | 243.71 | 207.41 | 242.48 | 5416241 return_5d_pct=37.234705; high_20d=243.71; low_20d=146.39; avg_volume_20d=1313933.95 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/.
    Return: 0.47%; alpha: -0.13%.
  4. CROX — confidence 60%. Ranked fourth for improved earnings expectations supported by price acceptance above the earnings gap. The release verifies HEYDUDE revenue growth of 6% and adjusted EPS guidance raised to $14.45–14.65 from $13.70–14.00: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/crocs-inc-reports-strong-third-quarter-2026-results-raises-full-year-2026-outlook-302922644.html. These change business expectations; another upward repricing is my inference. Before earnings, recent closes clustered near $119. The observed reaction opened at $140 and closed near the event-session high on 3.98 times average completed-session volume, with a small lower wick. This supports continuation. The strongest counter-evidence is the size of the existing repricing relative to approximately 3% annual revenue-growth guidance. Emotional momentum can reverse into profit-taking. A future close below the verified $139.33 event-session low would invalidate the gap-acceptance thesis. latest_price=153.19 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Pre-event baseline=$119.69 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=27.988972%, spanning the release without proving exclusive causation. The quote already exceeds the completed twenty-session high. Remaining thesis: further, smaller upside after the quote rather than repetition of the initial surge; exact elapsed-window return=null. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z: open=151.73; high_so_far=153.68; low_so_far=150.26; cumulative_volume=589748 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares. 2026-10-23 | 117.21 | 121.24 | 117.14 | 119.23 | 1112626 2026-10-26 | 120.16 | 122.41 | 118.20 | 118.85 | 1152796 2026-10-27 | 118.63 | 120.98 | 117.92 | 119.50 | 1054734 2026-10-28 | 118.03 | 121.00 | 117.47 | 119.69 | 1631720 2026-10-29 | 140.00 | 151.82 | 139.33 | 150.26 | 4899332 return_5d_pct=24.192082; high_20d=151.82; low_20d=114.09; avg_volume_20d=1231693.80 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/.
    Return: 1.01%; alpha: 0.41%.
  5. FTNT — confidence 55%. Ranked fifth because price evidence is mixed. The release verifies 29% billings growth and expanded repurchases, while the lowered service-revenue forecast is discussed here: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/3019151/fortinet-ftnt-stock-plunges-after-q3-earnings-time-to-buy-the-dip. The recurring-revenue concern is substantive; further valuation pressure is my inference. Before earnings, FTNT had already fallen from $185 to $174.08. The observed reaction gapped sharply down but recovered to the top 2.8% of the event-session range on 3.67 times average completed-session volume. That recovery is strong counter-evidence supporting reversal, not automatic continuation. However, today's quote is below both yesterday's close and today's open, weakening the recovery case. Strong billings and a buyback-supported rebound could defeat the bearish forecast. A future regular-session close above the verified $139.44 event-session high would undermine this call. latest_price=135.46 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/. Pre-event baseline=$174.08 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=-22.185202%; it spans the catalyst and other influences. Substantial disappointment is already priced. Remaining thesis: additional downside after the current quote as service-growth concerns persist; exact elapsed-window return=null. Emotional selling may exhaust abruptly, which limits confidence. PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z: open=137.09; high_so_far=138.79; low_so_far=134.55; cumulative_volume=2532216 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares. 2026-10-23 | 172.88 | 180.17 | 171.19 | 179.99 | 3225722 2026-10-26 | 181.34 | 184.76 | 178.30 | 183.33 | 3228339 2026-10-27 | 181.41 | 186.32 | 180.82 | 185.00 | 3585303 2026-10-28 | 183.76 | 185.13 | 173.02 | 174.08 | 11099352 2026-10-29 | 127.96 | 139.44 | 127.40 | 139.10 | 17361083 return_5d_pct=-19.586079; high_20d=197.13; low_20d=127.40; avg_volume_20d=4729929.65 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/history/.
    Return: -3.38%; alpha: 2.79%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Event Gaps: each model's average alpha vs SPY over SPY across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg picks with positive alphaAvg alpha vs SPY
Claude Opus 5.5754.29%+0.83%
ChatGPT160.00%+0.50%
Grok 4.7450.00%+0.46%
Gemini 1.5 Pro1353.85%+0.37%
Gemini 3.6 Flash160.00%+0.29%
GPT-61944.21%+0.17%
Perplexity2449.17%+0.12%
DeepSeek2651.73%+0.06%
Grok 4.51945.26%-0.02%
Grok 4140.00%-0.09%
Claude Opus 5140.00%-0.25%
Muse Spark 1.12547.20%-0.27%
Gemini 3 Pro656.67%-0.31%
Claude Sonnet 5.51340.00%-1.00%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High240.00%-1.21%
GPT-5.6 Sol740.00%-1.42%
Meta AI - Muse Spark140.00%-1.84%
Kimi120.00%-5.18%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
AAPL346.73000000340.58000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/
ALNY172.00000000157.23500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALNY/history/
AMZN238.94500000252.95000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/
AN181.74500000178.94500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AN/history/
COIN137.80000000140.83000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/history/
CROX151.33500000152.85740000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CROX/history/
FTNT135.47000000130.89010000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT/history/
GKOS237.77000000238.88000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GKOS/history/
GOOGL279.88500000285.55000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/
INTC66.3401000064.23000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/
LLY1420.725000001402.86500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/history/
MDLZ64.4100000065.63000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ/history/
MSFT524.00000000527.87000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/
NOW107.40500000108.12500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW/history/
PLTR187.18500000187.16000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/
RDDT96.1800000094.90500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history/
REGN911.73000000959.85000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REGN/history/
RIVN12.0699000013.39500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RIVN/history/
SPY758.19000000762.69000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
TWLO199.49000000207.21000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWLO/history/
XOM186.34500000183.70000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 cf0a2ea99b7065f7ba301d0d0eff1adb74106f0b0b13fdd1fc80a253dd3770f7. The prompt is ForecastNest's own research and is not published; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.

Tags

You may like these posts

Previous Post Next Post

نموذج الاتصال