Oct 30, 2026 - 7 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 4 models finished positive

Asked Oct 30, 10:01 AM EDT (morning session). Grok 4.7, Perplexity, Muse Spark 1.1, Claude Opus 5.5, DeepSeek, Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 30, 10:01 AM EDT to Nov 2, 10:01 AM EST, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Directional return
Grok 4.7	4/5	80.00%	3.64%	-0.09%	3.64%
Perplexity	4/5	80.00%	2.02%	-0.09%	2.02%
Muse Spark 1.1	4/5	80.00%	-0.72%	-0.09%	-0.72%
Claude Opus 5.5	3/5	60.00%	1.38%	-0.09%	1.38%
DeepSeek	2/5	40.00%	-1.63%	-0.09%	-1.63%
Gemini 3 Pro	2/5	40.00%	-1.08%	-0.09%	-1.08%
GPT-6	3/5	60.00%	3.07%	-0.09%	3.07%

Grok 4.7

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Thursday October 29 saw extreme earnings-driven moves in software and biotech with multiple large-cap names posting double-digit percentage changes on high volume. Positive reactions in select consumer and healthcare names contrast with sharp selloffs in enterprise software on disappointing guidance. Next-session closes may see partial continuation of fundamental reactions amid elevated volume, with risks of mean-reversion on oversold names.

1. GKOS up — confidence 65%. Glaukos rose 33.65% on October 29 to $242.48 after reporting Q3 results that beat estimates and raising full-year revenue guidance well above consensus. Catalyst is substantive earnings and outlook improvement rather than speculation. Reference price is the latest intraday quote near 9:45 AM EDT October 30 (stale by under an hour from prediction time). Hypothesis is continuation higher as positive fundamental revisions often persist into the next session, though valuation and prior run-up pose risks of profit-taking. Market cap and volume confirmed above floors.
   Return: -0.30%; alpha: -0.21%.
2. CVNA up — confidence 62%. Carvana advanced 15.68% on October 29 to $68.31 following record Q3 volume, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA results with management guiding toward the high end of prior EBITDA range. Catalyst is substantive earnings beat and operational momentum. Reference price is the latest intraday quote near 9:46 AM EDT October 30. Hypothesis is continuation higher on strong fundamental delivery, though margin pressure noted in the report and high beta introduce downside risk. Size and liquidity confirmed.
   Return: 8.36%; alpha: 8.45%.
3. GEN up — confidence 58%. Gen Digital gained 15.81% on October 29 to $28.20 after Q2 results and raised fiscal 2027 non-GAAP EPS and revenue outlook. Catalyst is substantive earnings and guidance raise. Reference price is the latest quote near 9:30 AM EDT October 30 from stockanalysis. Hypothesis is continuation higher as cybersecurity names with improved outlooks often see follow-through, with risks from prior volatility and sector weakness. Liquidity confirmed well above thresholds.
   Return: 4.49%; alpha: 4.58%.
4. NOW down — confidence 60%. ServiceNow fell 26.95% on October 29 to $109.67 after reporting earnings the prior evening that triggered a record percentage decline amid guidance concerns. Catalyst is substantive earnings reaction rather than pure speculation. Reference price is the latest available near 9:45 AM EDT October 30. Hypothesis is continuation lower as fundamental disappointments in high-multiple software often extend into the next session, though extreme oversold conditions create reversal risk. Large-cap liquidity confirmed.
   Return: -0.86%; alpha: 0.95%.
5. FTNT down — confidence 57%. Fortinet declined 20.09% on October 29 to $139.10 after Q3 results showed strong sales growth but an outlook that disappointed investors. Catalyst is substantive guidance miss. Reference price is the latest available near 9:41 AM EDT October 30. Hypothesis is continuation lower on the fundamental disappointment, with risks of bounce given the magnitude of the drop and solid underlying billings growth. Market cap and volume well above floors.
   Return: -4.78%; alpha: 4.87%.

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Perplexity

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The source session is dominated by an AI-infrastructure and software de-rating after Amazon and Intel results intensified concerns over capital spending and returns, while several earnings beaters are extending gains. I favor continuation in the largest fundamental downgrades and continuation in Regeneron's guidance-driven advance, while treating AutoNation's sharp earnings-driven spike as vulnerable to partial mean reversion.

1. INTC down — confidence 72%. Intel is among the session's largest decliners after its revenue forecast missed estimates on weak PC-processor demand and data-center supply-chain problems; Bloomberg and Schwab Network both describe the selloff as driven by the weak outlook. This is a substantive fundamental catalyst, so I expect continuation lower rather than a quick reversal. The reference price is the latest traded price found, $64.93 at 13:52 UTC on October 30, essentially the pre-open/early-session quote; the market cap of $483.78 billion and the very heavy trading volume comfortably indicate the liquidity screens are met, though I could not directly verify a 20-day average dollar-volume figure, so that field is omitted.
   Return: -2.22%; alpha: 2.31%.
2. RDDT down — confidence 66%. Reddit fell about 25% after management said it would limit open access to forums to push registration and engagement, a strategy that sacrifices reach and creates uncertainty around traffic and advertising monetization. The catalyst is substantive rather than merely technical, and the move was accompanied by unusually heavy volume, supporting continuation. The quoted price of $97.16 is the latest figure found at 13:52 UTC on October 30; Yahoo showed an intraday market cap of $24.94 billion. I could not directly verify 20-day average dollar volume, so that field is omitted.
   Return: -4.97%; alpha: 5.06%.
3. TWLO down — confidence 60%. Twilio declined roughly 18% after its quarterly report, within a broader software and AI-spending selloff; Bloomberg and Schwab Network identified it as a major premarket decliner. The initial reaction appears tied to results and sector sentiment, so I lean toward continuation, though the smaller move and potential bargain-hunting make this the lowest-conviction short-side pick. The $197.67 reference price is the latest quote found at 13:52 UTC on October 30; StockAnalysis listed a $37.15 billion market cap. A directly sourced 20-day average dollar-volume value was not found, so that field is omitted.
   Return: 2.16%; alpha: -2.07%.
4. REGN up — confidence 63%. Regeneron gained about 12.8% after beating Q3 estimates and raising 2026 guidance, including an approximately 86% adjusted product gross-margin outlook; Finviz and CNN describe the move as guidance-driven. This is a substantive catalyst, and I expect some continuation, although the stock is extended after a large opening move. The latest quote found was $928.32 at 9:45 AM ET on October 30 from CNN/BATS, with an $84.30 billion market cap. I could not directly verify 20-day average dollar volume, so that field is omitted.
   Return: 4.47%; alpha: 4.56%.
5. AN down — confidence 55%. AutoNation rose about 11.1% around its Q3 earnings release, with the latest quote found at $188.11 at 13:52 UTC on October 30 and an intraday market cap near $5.57 billion. Because the advance is an earnings-day spike into a soft consumer-auto backdrop, I judge the most likely next-session outcome to be partial reversal lower rather than continuation. The catalyst is substantive but already priced; the risk is that strong results sustain the move. I could not directly verify 20-day average dollar volume, so that field is omitted.
   Return: -0.58%; alpha: 0.67%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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Oct 29 close was mixed with sharp single-name dispersion on earnings. Top movers were driven by substantive catalysts: ADT buyout, Glaukos and Crocs earnings beats, Iovance clinical update, ServiceNow earnings miss. Oct 30 premarket is risk-off with Nasdaq futures down on Amazon -6.85% and Intel -25% guidance, suggesting continued pressure on software and selective profit-taking in parabolic med-tech winners. Intraday quotes on Oct 30 are used for reference_price.

1. NOW down — confidence 72%. ServiceNow closed Oct 29 at $109.67 down -26.97% on Oct 29, worst day since IPO, after Q3 adjusted EPS miss $1.00 vs $1.02 and lighter Q4 cRPO guide 18.5% vs 20% consensus. Substantive earnings catalyst, volume 76.4M vs 12.5M 20-day average, $6.74B dollar volume. Market cap $160.04B on Oct 29, avg daily traded value $2.25B, price $109.67 prior close above $5 floor. Reference_price is latest intraday $107.92 on Oct 30 from Finnhub, previous close $109.67, down -1.6% intraday, quote is Oct 30 and less than 2 hours old. Continuation down thesis: software derating on AI capex concerns, guidance cut triggers estimate cuts, gap fill unlikely same session. Risk: oversold bounce after -27% may attract dip buyers.
   Return: -0.86%; alpha: 0.95%.
2. GKOS down — confidence 68%. Glaukos jumped +33.65% to $242.48 on Oct 29 close, gaining $61.05 from $181.43 prior close, intraday high $243.71 all-time high, on Q3 earnings beat and bullish guidance for iDose TR and iStent. Substantive catalyst with volume 5.41M vs avg 901k. Market cap $14.35B on Oct 29, avg daily traded value $121.84M, price $242.48 passes $5, $1B, $20M floors. Reference_price latest $241.62 on Oct 30 from Finnhub, -0.35% vs prior close, quote from Oct 30 session, less than 3 hours old. Reversal down thesis: parabolic to ATH typically sees profit-taking next session, RSI extreme, JPMorgan $240 target caps. Risk: squeeze continuation if guidance raises estimates further.
   Return: -0.30%; alpha: 0.39%.
3. ADT up — confidence 65%. ADT surged +33.20% to $9.87 close on Oct 29 after board approved all-cash $10 per share buyout by Thrive Holdings, $7.6B equity $15.3B EV, 45.6% premium to Oct 27 $6.87 close, go-shop through Nov 28, close Q1 2027. Substantive deal catalyst with hard ceiling at $10. Volume 163.85M vs 20-day avg 15.13M. Market cap $7.21B on Oct 29, avg daily traded value $72.33M, price passes floors. Reference_price latest $9.875 intraday Oct 30 from Finnhub, flat vs prior close, quote Oct 30 morning, fresh. Continuation up thesis: arb spread 1.2% to $10 leaves small drift higher as deal certainty rises, but capped. Risk: spread closes to zero or deal break widens downside.
   Return: 0.05%; alpha: 0.14%.
4. CROX up — confidence 62%. Crocs climbed +25.54% to $150.26 close on Oct 29 after Q3 EPS $3.69 vs $3.31 consensus +11.48% surprise, revenue $1.04B +4.6% YoY vs $1.0B expected, raised full-year growth to ~3% with HEYDUDE turnaround ahead of schedule. Substantive earnings catalyst. Market cap $6.94B on Oct 29, avg daily traded value $129.62M, price $150.26 passes floors, 20-day avg volume 1.23M shares. Reference_price latest $151.86 intraday Oct 30 from Finnhub, +1.06% vs prior close, Oct 30 quote fresh. Continuation up thesis: beat and raise plus Barclays upgrade to Overweight $139 target raised, momentum in consumer discretionary. Risk: after +25% single session, intraday reversal likely if market weak.
   Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.59%.
5. IOVA up — confidence 58%. Iovance fell -35.45% to $9.56 close on Oct 29 after updated IOV-LUN-202 lifileucel lung cancer data 24.6% response in 69 patients vs 25.6% earlier, 43.3% wild-type vs 11.4% mutant, filing delayed to 2027. Substantive negative clinical catalyst, but raised 2026 revenue guide $410-420M. Market cap $4.33B on Oct 29, avg daily traded value $82.89M, price $9.56 above $5 floor, volume 59M vs 11.7M average. Reference_price latest $8.465 intraday Oct 30 from Finnhub, -11.45% vs prior close, Oct 30 morning quote, indicates premarket continuation then bounce setup. Reversal up thesis: oversold biotech after 35% drop often mean-reverts, short interest high, guidance raise supports floor. Risk: biomarker strategy uncertainty keeps selling.
   Return: -5.34%; alpha: -5.25%.

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Claude Opus 5.5

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The source session (Thursday 2026-10-29) was dominated by AI-disruption and AI-capex fears: Alphabet had its worst day on record and ServiceNow and Fortinet suffered record or near-record drops. Industrial, defense and select consumer names with beat-and-raise reports rallied against the tape. On Friday 2026-10-30, weak guidance from Intel and Amazon has extended the tech sell-off: the S&P 500 was down about 1.2% and the Nasdaq about 1.4% shortly after the open, and Alphabet was indicated roughly 1% lower premarket. My base case for the next session is continued pressure on AI-capex and software names, while the idiosyncratic, low-tech-beta earnings winners (defense shipbuilding, business jets and armored vehicles, used-car e-commerce) hold or extend their gains because of post-earnings drift and rotation out of tech. The main risks are a sharp oversold rebound in megacap tech, which would hurt the short-side continuation picks, and a broad risk-off move that drags the long-side picks down with the market.

1. GOOGL down — confidence 60%. Source-session move: Class A shares closed at $283.82 on 2026-10-29, down 12.6% from $324.89, the largest one-day fall since the 2004 listing. Catalyst (substantive): the Q3 2026 report missed revenue and EPS consensus, search growth slowed, free cash flow was negative $9.07B for a second straight quarter, quarterly capex was $51.4B, and management guided capex significantly higher in 2027. Thesis: continuation lower. Amazon's capex-heavy, negative-free-cash-flow report and Intel's weak guide on 10/30 reinforce the same AI-spending-payoff fear, and a premarket note had Alphabet off about another 1%. Risks: a dip-buying rebound after a record drop, and the low valuation drawing value buyers. Price note: reference_price is the 2026-10-29 regular-session close. I could not get a verified live 10/30 intraday quote, so it is about one session stale. Market cap: about $3.46T company-wide, reported intraday on 10/29 at 1:30 p.m. EDT with shares down about 12% (Implicator.ai). The 20-day average dollar volume was not found; only a 30-day average of about 25.4M shares (as of 10/22) was available, which is far above the $20M floor, so the field is omitted.
   Return: 1.43%; alpha: -1.34%.
2. NOW down — confidence 57%. Source-session move: closed at $109.67 on 2026-10-29, down 26.95% from $150.13, the worst day on record. The day's range was $108.68 to $121.50, so it closed near the low, on about 5x average volume. Catalyst (substantive): Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.00 missed the $1.02 consensus, Q4 revenue guidance of $4.25-4.26B was below the roughly $4.36B consensus, and Q4 cRPO growth was guided down to 18.5% from 20.5%. This revived fears that AI will disrupt software. Thesis: continuation lower. The close near the session low, a technical sell signal, and the 10/30 tech sell-off triggered by Intel and Amazon all argue against a quick rebound. A 10/30 premarket report had the stock trading near $110. Risks: a record one-day drop with bullish analyst targets (consensus near $156) could draw a sharp reflex bounce. Price note: reference_price is the 10/29 regular-session close, about one session stale; I could not verify a precise 10/30 live quote. Market cap was not directly verified at the close. It is clearly far above $1B given roughly 1.04B diluted shares, so the field is omitted. The 20-day average dollar volume was not verified; the omission is deliberate, and the floor is obviously exceeded.
   Return: -0.86%; alpha: 0.95%.
3. HII up — confidence 56%. Source-session move: closed at $316.21 on 2026-10-29, up 13.23%. Catalyst (substantive): Q3 2026 EPS of $5.48 beat the $4.42 consensus, revenue of $3.54B beat roughly $3.38B, the company raised its full-year shipbuilding revenue outlook, it announced $32.4B in new contract awards, and quarterly free cash flow was $429M. Thesis: continuation higher. The stock entered the report near the low end of its 52-week range ($255-$460), the move rests on fundamentals, and defense names are low-beta destinations in a tech-led sell-off. Risks: profit-taking after the largest move in a year, and continued negative year-to-date free cash flow. Price note: reference_price is the 10/29 regular-session close; no verified 10/30 live quote was obtained. Market cap was not verified at the 10/29 close. Earlier October quotes show about $11B at roughly $274 with 39.4M shares, so it is well above $1B; the field is omitted. The 20-day average dollar volume was not verified. A roughly 500-580K share daily average at about $300 implies well over $20M, but the field is omitted as unverified.
   Return: -1.41%; alpha: -1.32%.
4. TXT up — confidence 54%. Source-session move: closed at $87.46 on 2026-10-29, up 11.67%. Catalyst (substantive): Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $1.76 on $3.8B in sales beat estimates. Higher Citation jet deliveries and aftermarket sales at Textron Aviation, plus higher armored-vehicle and military-support volume at Textron Systems, drove the quarter. Free cash flow was $410M, up 51% year over year, and the company raised full-year GAAP EPS guidance to $5.64-$5.74 and free cash flow guidance to $800-900M. Thesis: continuation higher on post-earnings drift and rotation into industrials and defense away from AI-exposed tech. Risks: a broad market drawdown, business-jet demand sensitivity to rates, and correlation with the HII pick. Price note: reference_price is the 10/29 regular-session close; no verified 10/30 live quote was obtained. Market cap and 20-day average dollar volume were not verified at the 10/29 close, so both are omitted. As an S&P 500 constituent at about $87 it is far above both floors, but I did not confirm exact figures.
   Return: 0.53%; alpha: 0.62%.
5. CVNA up — confidence 52%. Source-session move: closed at $68.31 on 2026-10-29, up 15.7%, the largest move in either direction in the prior 365 days. Volume was 21.1M shares against a 30-day average of 8.25M. Catalyst (substantive): record Q3 2026 retail units of 217,385 (up 39% year over year) and record revenue of $8.04B, above the $7.71B estimate. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is now expected at the higher end of the $2.7-3.0B range, and Morgan Stanley named it a top pick. EPS of $0.39 missed the $0.44-0.45 estimate, and margins slipped. Thesis: continuation higher, as a heavily owned momentum name that is still down about 19% year to date re-rates on volume leadership. Risks (meaningful, hence lowest confidence): rapidly rising benchmark rates and weaker gross profit per unit, a beta-heavy name in a risk-off tape, and possible fading after a near 3x-volume gap. Price note: reference_price is the 10/29 regular-session close; no verified 10/30 live quote was obtained. Market cap: $75.1B per a MarketChameleon summary for 10/29. The 20-day average dollar volume was not found as such; only a 30-day average share volume was available, implying several hundred million dollars per day, so the field is omitted.
   Return: 8.36%; alpha: 8.45%.

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DeepSeek

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The 2026-10-29 source session was risk-off at the index level, led by Alphabet's worst one-day decline and a sharp ServiceNow selloff on earnings and AI-spending concerns. At the same time, several stock-specific winners rallied hard on earnings or deal news. For the 2026-10-30 target session, futures were lower, so I favor idiosyncratic continuation in the ADT merger-arbitrage situation and in Alphabet's post-earnings weakness, while treating the largest one-day gainers as vulnerable to profit-taking. The book is deliberately mixed rather than a single-factor momentum bet.

1. ADT up — confidence 90%. Ranked first because the catalyst is a hard cash deal: ADT agreed to be acquired by Thrive Holdings for $10.00 per share in cash, and the stock closed the source session at $9.87, up 33.20%. The remaining spread to the $10 cash price supports a continuation-up hypothesis. The reference price is the latest pre-market print I found, $9.89 on 2026-10-30, not the source-session close. The main risks are deal break, financing or regulatory delay, or a higher competing bid; the direction is still the cleanest of the five. Floor check: price $9.89, market cap about $7.22B, 20-day average dollar volume about $229M.
   Return: 0.05%; alpha: 0.14%.
2. GEN up — confidence 63%. Gen Digital beat Q2 FY27 estimates and raised FY27 revenue and EPS guidance, driving a 15.81% source-session gain to $28.20. The catalyst is substantive, and the stock is holding near its session high, so I hypothesize continuation up. The latest quote I could verify is $28.16 in the overnight/pre-market session on 2026-10-30, slightly below the source close. Risks include profit-taking after a large gap and cybersecurity multiple compression. Floor check: price $28.16, market cap $16.88B, 20-day average dollar volume about $231M.
   Return: 4.49%; alpha: 4.58%.
3. CVNA down — confidence 60%. Carvana jumped 15.68% to $68.31 on a record Q3 revenue beat, but EPS missed and EBITDA guidance was lower, and several analysts cut price targets despite the revenue beat. The stock closed near its high, while the latest pre-market quote I found is $67.46 on 2026-10-30, below the source close. That mixed catalyst and weaker overnight tape support a reversal-down hypothesis. Risks include continued short-covering or momentum extending the rally. Floor check: price $67.46, market cap $75.719B, 20-day average dollar volume about $606M.
   Return: 8.36%; alpha: -8.26%.
4. GOOGL down — confidence 58%. Alphabet fell 12.64% to $283.82, its worst one-day decline on record, after a rare Q3 EPS and revenue miss and concerns about AI spending and free cash flow. The latest pre-market quote I found is $283.00 on 2026-10-30, still below the source close, while broad futures were lower. I hypothesize continuation down, although mega-cap bargain hunting is the main risk. The catalyst is substantive rather than speculative. Floor check: price $283.00, market cap $3.47T, 20-day average dollar volume about $11.26B.
   Return: 1.43%; alpha: -1.34%.
5. NCLH down — confidence 55%. Norwegian Cruise Line rose 13.45% to $18.22 after beating Q3 estimates and raising full-year guidance, but the latest pre-market quote I found is $18.11 on 2026-10-30, below the source close, and the after-hours tape was soft. I hypothesize a partial reversal down as gap profits are taken, making this a lower-confidence contrarian call. Risks include continued cruise-sector momentum or a broad risk-on turn. Floor check: price $18.11, market cap $8.37B, 20-day average dollar volume about $416M.
   Return: 2.89%; alpha: -2.80%.

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Gemini 3 Pro

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US equity markets exhibit bifurcated dynamics entering late October 2026. Disappointment over major technology earnings and aggressive capital expenditure budgets continues to weigh heavily on megacap indices like the NASDAQ, triggering acute sell-offs in software and megacap tech. Conversely, M&A announcements and strong consumer/healthcare earnings are generating massive upside momentum in select medium-to-large capitalisation equities. For the target session, single-stock momentum strategies are expected to diverge based on catalyst durability—acquisition announcements and major earnings beats/guidance upgrades are poised to maintain continuation, while extreme earnings-driven oversold reactions in established high-margin tech leaders are prime candidates for mean-reversion buying.

1. ADT up — confidence 85%. ADT spiked +33.31% in the source session following an official announcement that it agreed to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in a $15.3 billion transaction ($10.00 per share cash consideration). Because definitive cash acquisition announcements anchor equity valuations directly to the offer price, the initial jump represents a fundamental structural re-rating rather than a temporary speculative pump. The hypothesis is continuation toward the $10.00 deal value, as arb desks absorb remaining float. Reference price taken from live pre-market / delayed quote on October 30, 2026 ($9.89). Primary risk is unexpected regulatory intervention, which is minimal for home security.
   Return: 0.05%; alpha: 0.14%.
2. GKOS up — confidence 75%. Glaukos Corporation rallied +32.84% during the source session after reporting blowout earnings results and raising full-year revenue guidance across its ophthalmic portfolio. Catalyst is substantive due to expanding gross margins and accelerating adoption of its iStent and iDose platforms. Given the sheer scale of institutional accumulation and earnings revisions, momentum is forecasted to continue upward into the target session as sell-side analysts issue follow-on price target upgrades. Reference price sourced from live quote data on October 30, 2026 ($241.07). Main risk is broader healthcare sector profit-taking.
   Return: -0.30%; alpha: -0.21%.
3. CROX up — confidence 70%. Crocs Inc. jumped +25.20% in the source session after reporting strong Q3 results ($3.69 EPS vs. $3.31 consensus) and delivering its third consecutive full-year top- and bottom-line guidance raise driven by a return to growth in its HEYDUDE brand (+6% YoY). Catalyst is highly substantive. Such comprehensive operational beats and guidance hikes typically prompt multi-day institutional buying and price target increases. Hypothesis is continuation for direction up. Reference price fetched from current quote on October 30, 2026 ($149.74). Risk includes discretionary consumer weakness.
   Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.59%.
4. NOW up — confidence 65%. ServiceNow plunged -26.70% in the source session amid a macro-driven software sector drawdown triggered by earnings missteps and broader AI spending caution. The market reaction was severely exaggerated relative to the company's core subscription renewal rates and long-term enterprise software retention. The hypothesis is reversal (direction up relative to the steep drop), as institutional value investors step in to buy the overextended discount on a high-quality SaaS giant. Reference price verified on October 30, 2026 ($109.78). Primary risk is continued tech sector momentum selling.
   Return: -0.86%; alpha: -0.77%.
5. FTNT up — confidence 60%. Fortinet declined -20.85% in the source session post-earnings despite solid revenue growth, as investors reacted negatively to conservative forward billings commentary. The catalyst is mix of substantive guidance adjustments and speculative market overreaction. Because cybersecurity remains a non-discretionary corporate budget priority and Fortinet maintains robust 38%+ operating margins, the drop is considered overextended. Hypothesis is reversal (direction up) for a technical dead-cat bounce and fundamental mean-reversion. Reference price sourced as of October 30, 2026 ($137.10). Risk is further sell-side downgrades.
   Return: -4.78%; alpha: -4.69%.

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GPT-6

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I interpret the source session as October 29, the latest completed US session. My outlook favors continuation where earnings materially changed expectations, with a lower-confidence rebound exception for ServiceNow. Strong company-specific results can support selected gainers despite weakness in software. Rankings reflect my estimated directional opportunity, not simply the size of yesterday's move.

1. GKOS up — confidence 64%. Ranked first for the clearest positive fundamental revision among these extreme movers: sixth on Tradestie's gainers list. Glaukos' company release reports 58% sales growth, raises 2026 sales guidance to $775–785 million from $680–700 million, and introduces a $1 billion preliminary 2027 outlook. This is a substantive earnings catalyst; further buying is my inference. Profit-taking after a 33.65% surge is the principal risk. The reference is Stock Analysis's October 30 regular-session quote at 10:17 EDT, approximately eight minutes old at the research cutoff.
   Return: -0.30%; alpha: -0.21%.
2. ALNY down — confidence 63%. Ranked second because commercial expectations face substantive pressure; ALNY was sixth on Tradestie's losers list. The earnings-call summary reports weaker-than-expected AMVUTTRA demand growth and TTR sales expected near the low end of guidance amid access and ordering uncertainty. The company release confirms expanded TRITON-CM enrollment. I infer continued estimate revisions and selling pressure. Strong product growth and an oversold rebound could defeat this forecast. The reference is Stock Analysis's October 30 regular-session quote at 10:15 EDT, approximately ten minutes old at the cutoff.
   Return: -11.25%; alpha: 11.34%.
3. CROX up — confidence 62%. Ranked third for a substantive earnings and guidance improvement; CROX was thirteenth on Tradestie's gainers list. The company release confirms HEYDUDE returned to growth, a third consecutive full-year outlook increase, and adjusted EPS guidance raised to $14.45–14.65 from $13.70–14.00. I expect continued reassessment of earnings durability. The large initial gain creates meaningful profit-taking risk. The reference is Stock Analysis's October 30 regular-session quote at 10:09 EDT, approximately sixteen minutes old at the cutoff and newer than its overview-page quote.
   Return: 0.50%; alpha: 0.59%.
4. FTNT down — confidence 60%. Ranked fourth for continuing pressure from recurring-revenue expectations; FTNT was tenth on Tradestie's losers list. The company release verifies its results and service-revenue outlook, while Zacks describes slower service growth and a reduced service forecast despite stronger overall guidance. This is a substantive business-mix concern; further selling is my inference. Strong billings, cash generation and expanded repurchases create rebound risk. The reference is Stock Analysis's October 30 regular-session quote at 10:12 EDT, approximately thirteen minutes old at the cutoff.
   Return: -4.78%; alpha: 4.87%.
5. NOW up — confidence 56%. Ranked fifth because this rebound thesis has the weakest conviction; NOW was fourth on Tradestie's losers list. Its company release verifies 21% subscription growth and increased full-year subscription and cash-flow outlooks, alongside fourth-quarter cRPO growth guidance of 18.5%. The earnings catalyst is substantive, but my expectation that the 26.95% decline overshot is speculative. Slower backlog growth and software-sector selling could extend losses. Up is a reversal of the source-session decline. The reference is Stock Analysis's October 30 regular-session quote at 10:16 EDT, approximately nine minutes old at the cutoff.
   Return: -0.86%; alpha: -0.77%.

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How models have done in Extreme Movers

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg directions called correctly	Avg directional return
GPT-5.1	1	60.00%	+2.07%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	21	58.10%	+0.82%
Meta AI - Muse Spark	1	40.00%	+0.73%
Grok 4	4	55.00%	+0.68%
DeepSeek	33	49.24%	+0.47%
Muse Spark 1.1	31	50.32%	+0.35%
Grok 4.7	5	48.00%	+0.26%
Claude Opus 5.5	6	43.33%	+0.15%
GPT-6 Thinking	1	20.00%	+0.12%
Claude Opus 5	6	60.00%	+0.03%
Grok 4.5	21	46.67%	-0.07%
Perplexity	24	45.83%	-0.15%
GPT-6	19	45.26%	-0.22%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	18	48.89%	-0.52%
Gemini 3 Pro	11	43.64%	-0.61%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High	3	60.00%	-0.92%
Gemini 2.5 Pro	1	20.00%	-2.89%
GPT-5.6 Sol	10	46.00%	-3.06%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
ADT	9.86500000	9.87000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADT/history/
ALNY	178.56000000	158.47500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALNY/history/
AN	183.92000000	182.86000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AN/history/
CROX	151.86000000	152.62000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CROX/history/
CVNA	67.26000000	72.88000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVNA/history/
FTNT	136.96500000	130.41500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTNT/history/
GEN	28.71000000	30.00000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GEN/history/
GKOS	241.55500000	240.82000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GKOS/history/
GOOGL	281.55000000	285.59000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/
HII	317.05000000	312.56500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HII/history/
INTC	65.49000000	64.03500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/
IOVA	8.43000000	7.98000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IOVA/history/
NCLH	17.64000000	18.15000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NCLH/history/
NOW	107.91000000	106.98000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW/history/
RDDT	98.21000000	93.32500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history/
REGN	924.79000000	966.16000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REGN/history/
SPY	761.14000000	760.45000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
TWLO	200.78000000	205.11000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWLO/history/
TXT	86.91000000	87.37000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXT/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11, SHA-256 667d2e508ebc03f87e7d7c2ceb405d7e097d535ec5686c2756aaf6c0ba90fe0e. The prompt is ForecastNest's own research and is not published; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.