Oct 30, 2026 - 7 AI models pick stocks in the morning session. 1 model beat SPY

Asked Oct 30, 10:54 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Grok 4.7, Muse Spark 1.1, Claude Opus 5.5, DeepSeek, Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 30, 10:54 AM EDT to Nov 2, 10:54 AM EST, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.

Model	Beat SPY	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha
Perplexity	0/5	0.00%	-1.12%	0.31%	-1.43%
Grok 4.7	2/5	40.00%	-0.08%	0.31%	-0.38%
Muse Spark 1.1	2/5	40.00%	-0.05%	0.31%	-0.36%
Claude Opus 5.5	3/5	60.00%	1.34%	0.31%	1.04%
DeepSeek	1/5	20.00%	-0.89%	0.31%	-1.20%
Gemini 3 Pro	1/5	20.00%	-0.35%	0.31%	-0.66%
GPT-6	3/5	60.00%	0.01%	0.31%	-0.30%

Perplexity

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A sharp rotation out of AI-heavy technology is underway after weak Amazon and Intel results, while energy and healthcare earnings provide relative strength. I favor energy, pharmaceuticals, and other earnings-supported defensives over SPY for the next session, while recognizing that a broad risk-off rebound could lift technology and hurt this defensive tilt.

1. XOM — confidence 68.0000%. ExxonMobil reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.23, above the $4.13 consensus, helped by higher refining margins and elevated crude prices; the stock traded around $185.90 premarket on 2026-10-30 after closing at $183.29 on 2026-10-29. Its earnings beat, oil-price tailwind, and low exposure to the AI-capex selloff make it the strongest relative-outperformance candidate. Risks include a post-earnings fade, crude-oil reversal, or a broad market rebound that redirects capital back into beaten-down technology. Reference price is a premarket quote; regular-session trading had not fully progressed at research time.
   Return: -1.35%; alpha: -1.66%.
2. CVX — confidence 65.0000%. Chevron beat Q3 estimates with adjusted EPS of $5.28 versus $4.88 expected, and revenue of $67.8 billion exceeded the $60.55 billion consensus; shares rose about 1% premarket and were indicated near $230.03 intraday on 2026-10-30. Strong refining margins, higher oil prices, and a sector rotation away from technology support its one-day outlook versus SPY. Risks are earnings-related profit taking, energy-price volatility, and underperformance if the market interprets the selloff as overdone and rotates back to mega-cap technology. Reference price is a live intraday quote.
   Return: -1.46%; alpha: -1.77%.
3. LLY — confidence 62.0000%. Eli Lilly jumped after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $7.48 versus a $5.38 consensus, with Mounjaro sales up 65% year over year and Zepbound sales up 49%; the stock traded at $1,428.63 intraday on 2026-10-30, up about 4%. Strong GLP-1 demand and a clear fundamental catalyst give it a plausible edge over SPY even amid the tech-led selloff. Risks include a large gap-up being sold, high valuation, and sector-wide pharmaceutical weakness if investors reduce overall equity exposure. Reference price is a live intraday quote.
   Return: -1.57%; alpha: -1.88%.
4. MRK — confidence 58.0000%. Merck reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.49 versus $2.12 expected, and the stock was trading at $150.92 intraday on 2026-10-30, up 3.14%, after closing at $146.33 on 2026-10-29. The earnings beat and defensive healthcare exposure align with the day’s rotation away from capital-intensive technology. Risks include reversal after a strong move, drug-pipeline or pricing headlines, and a market-wide rally in which SPY catches up quickly. Reference price is a live intraday quote.
   Return: 0.19%; alpha: -0.12%.
5. XLE — confidence 55.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund provides diversified exposure to the strongest relative-strength area, with XLE indicated around $69.71 premarket on 2026-10-30 after closing at $68.71 on 2026-10-29. Rising crude prices, stronger refining margins, and positive results from XOM and CVX support energy’s ability to outperform a benchmark weighed down by technology. Risks include an oil-price pullback, concentration in integrated oil majors, and a broad equity rebound that reduces the defensive rotation benefit. Reference price is a premarket quote.
   Return: -1.42%; alpha: -1.72%.

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Grok 4.7

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US markets are in a risk-off session driven by disappointing Amazon and Intel earnings that intensified concerns over heavy AI capital spending and cash flow. The Nasdaq is down roughly 2% and SPY is lower by about 1.2%, while defensive sectors including healthcare and consumer staples, plus energy supported by higher oil prices from Middle East tensions, are outperforming.

1. REGN — confidence 82.0000%. Regeneron surged after a strong Q3 beat, with EPS of $20.07 versus estimates around $16.25 and robust Dupixent-related profits, sending shares up more than 11% intraday to a multi-year high. Thesis: continued positive reaction and relative strength versus the tech-led selloff should allow it to outperform SPY over the next session. Risks: profit-taking after the large gap higher, or broader market weakness dragging even defensives lower. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: 5.68%; alpha: 5.37%.
2. CDNA — confidence 78.0000%. CareDx jumped over 20% on a Q3 earnings and revenue beat, guidance raise, and analyst price-target increases, reflecting strong transplant-testing growth. Thesis: high-momentum earnings winner with elevated volume is likely to sustain relative outperformance against a declining SPY. Risks: sharp reversal if profit-taking hits small-cap biotech names, or if broader risk-off intensifies. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: -5.45%; alpha: -5.76%.
3. LLY — confidence 75.0000%. Eli Lilly is higher after raising its 2026 sales outlook on strong obesity and diabetes drug demand (tirzepatide franchise). Thesis: secular growth in GLP-1s and defensive healthcare rotation should support outperformance versus SPY in the current tech-pressure environment. Risks: valuation remains elevated and any macro growth scare could pressure high-multiple names. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: -1.57%; alpha: -1.88%.
4. XOM — confidence 72.0000%. ExxonMobil is advancing after topping Q3 estimates on stronger refining margins and as crude oil rises on Middle East supply concerns. Thesis: energy sector strength and positive earnings reaction provide a hedge and relative upside versus a tech-heavy SPY decline. Risks: oil-price pullback or broader equity weakness could limit gains. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: -1.35%; alpha: -1.66%.
5. MDLZ — confidence 70.0000%. Mondelez is up after a Q3 earnings beat driven by cost controls and volume gains, with management reaffirming guidance. Thesis: consumer-staples defensive characteristics and positive earnings reaction support relative outperformance in a risk-off session. Risks: modest absolute upside potential and possible fade if the market rebounds into growth names. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: 2.32%; alpha: 2.01%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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Oct 30 risk-off driven by tech: Nasdaq 100 futures -2.33% and S&P -1.04% while Dow flat, after Amazon fell 7.2% premarket despite cloud growth and Intel tumbled ~26% on weak Q4 guidance. SPY traded near $760.29 early and $765.26 premarket down 0.55%, with AI capex concerns pressuring mega-cap tech. Energy and defensive staples/biotech with Q3 beats are outperforming and likely to continue beating SPY into Nov 2 session on sector rotation.

1. REGN — confidence 78.0000%. Regeneron reported Q3 EPS $20.07 vs $16.42 consensus beating by $3.65 with revenue $5.12B vs $4.56B est on Oct 30. Stock rose 7.5% premarket to $880 vs $818.77 close and traded intraday at $916.44 up 11.9%. Low beta 0.13 makes it defensive vs SPY down ~1% on AI selloff. Biotech beat momentum plus Sanofi alliance provides follow-through into Monday. Risks: sharp 12% intraday gain invites profit-taking, biotech volatility, high absolute price may mean mean-reversion. Reference is live intraday quote.
   Return: 5.68%; alpha: 5.37%.
2. XOM — confidence 72.0000%. ExxonMobil beat Q3 on Oct 30: adjusted EPS $4.23 vs $4.12 est and revenue $110.5B vs $104.89B, driven by refining margins surge and record Gulf Coast utilization. Stock current $185.77 up 1.35% intraday while SPY down. Energy sector up 52% YTD entering Friday and benefits from oil at $85.68 vs $64.97 year ago. Low beta 0.17 and defensive rotation from tech supports outperformance over 1 session. Risks: oil price pullback, refining margin normalization, profit-taking after 52% YTD run. Reference is intraday regular-session quote.
   Return: -1.35%; alpha: -1.66%.
3. CVX — confidence 70.0000%. Chevron also beat Oct 30: net income nearly 200% to $9.9B, adjusted $5.28 vs $4.89 est, downstream earnings at multi-year highs on diesel. Stock $235.825 up 1.88% intraday vs SPY $760.29 down. Same energy rotation thesis as XOM with low beta 0.49, plus record US crude throughput. Continues to benefit from war-driven refining surge narrative. Risks: correlated to crude, downstream margins are cyclical, high YTD gains +54% may limit upside. Reference is intraday regular-session quote.
   Return: -1.46%; alpha: -1.77%.
4. MDLZ — confidence 68.0000%. Mondelez reported Q3 2026 results Oct 30, flagged as S&P 500 premarket gainer +7.08% to $66.96 from $62.53 close on volume return. Intraday $64.32 up 2.86% while Nasdaq pressured by AMZN -6.25% and INTC -26.24%. Consumer staples low beta 0.38 offers defensive outperformance when SPY falls on tech. Staples seeing rotation as AI trade questioned. Risks: modest growth, FX headwinds, pullback after premarket spike, lower momentum vs biotech. Reference is intraday quote, lower than premarket high indicating consolidation but still beating SPY.
   Return: 2.32%; alpha: 2.01%.
5. CDNA — confidence 65.0000%. CareDx surged on earnings: current $89.375 up 24.96% from $71.52 prior close, open $80.615 high $90.87, following prior-day earnings and testing momentum. Listed as top gaining US stock today +9.8% to +22% in different prints. Biotech testing name with 374% YTD and 29% 5-day return showing strong momentum persistence. In risk-off tech tape, idiosyncratic biotech beat continues to outperform SPY which is down ~1%. Risks: very high beta 2.57, small-cap volatility, sharp 25% move prone to reversal, profit-taking into weekend. Reference is intraday regular-session quote.
   Return: -5.45%; alpha: -5.76%.

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Claude Opus 5.5

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Risk-off session led by technology: Intel (about -25 to -29%) and Amazon results have revived worries about the payoff from AI capital spending. QQQ was about -2.4% and SPY about -1.1% near 10:00 ET, and S&P 500 was about -1.2% to -1.5% by mid-morning. Money is rotating into defensives. Health care (XLV at an all-time high) and staples are leading, and energy is bid on earnings beats from Exxon and Chevron and WTI near $104 after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The picks lean on post-earnings drift in large-cap beat-and-raise names plus the defensive-sector rotation. The main risks are a sharp tech rebound on Monday morning (ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 ET; Apple and Palantir report after Monday's close), weekend Iran ceasefire headlines (Trump said the war is 'going to end soon') that could hit oil, and profit-taking in names that have already gapped up.

1. REGN — confidence 58.0000%. Thesis: Regeneron reported a large Q3 2026 beat. Adjusted EPS was $20.07 against about $16.06-16.25 expected, and revenue was $5.12B (+36% y/y) against about $4.54B. Dupixent, EYLEA HD and Libtayo each hit record sales. The Sanofi development balance is now fully repaid, which structurally lifts collaboration revenue, and the company raised its gross-margin guidance and cut its SG&A guidance. The stock broke well above its prior 52-week high of $859.34 on heavy volume and was among the strongest S&P 500 names on a down day. A fundamental re-rating like this in a low-beta (about 0.15) defensive name tends to keep drifting while tech is under pressure. Risks: after a gain of about 12% intraday, profit-taking or mean reversion into Monday is a real possibility. The analyst average target (about $869-874) is now below the price. Eylea's US franchise is still shrinking, and an FDA decision on cemdisiran is pending. Price: intraday quote of $915.76 (+11.85%) at 10:50 AM ET from Finviz.
   Return: 5.68%; alpha: 5.37%.
2. XLV — confidence 56.0000%. Thesis: Health care is the clearest beneficiary of today's rotation out of AI-exposed tech. XLV rose 2.4% on Thursday while the S&P 500 fell, and it set another all-time high this morning (day high $187.99), helped by strong pharma and biotech prints (Regeneron, Gilead, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Eli Lilly). Its low beta (about 0.5) helps relative performance if the tech selloff continues into Monday. Risks: XLV has given back part of its opening gain (open $186.75, now about $185.8). If Monday brings a tech or semiconductor relief rally, low-beta defensives would lag SPY. Drug-pricing policy headlines are another risk. Price: intraday quote of $185.82 (+0.97%) at 10:50 AM ET from StockAnalysis.
   Return: -0.96%; alpha: -1.27%.
3. MDLZ — confidence 54.0000%. Thesis: Mondelez's Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.78 beat the roughly $0.71-0.72 consensus. Volume/mix turned positive (+1.8% after -4.6% a year ago), and adjusted gross margin rose 380 bp to 34.2% as cocoa costs ease. The company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance. Several brokers raised targets or reiterated Buy today, including Goldman Sachs (to $75), TD Cowen ($75) and Stifel ($74). Low-beta staples with improving fundamentals benefit from today's defensive rotation, and post-earnings drift supports a further move. Risks: the stock has faded from about +7% premarket to about +4.7%, which signals some supply. Revenue was only in line, and North American consumer softness persists. Price: intraday quote of $65.45 (+4.67% versus the $62.53 close on Oct 29) from The Motley Fool's quote page. That page gave no exact clock time, so it is an intraday, possibly delayed, reading.
   Return: 2.32%; alpha: 2.01%.
4. XOM — confidence 52.0000%. Thesis: ExxonMobil beat Q3 2026 estimates with adjusted EPS of $4.23 against about $4.04-4.13. Refining earned more than upstream for the first time in at least six years, because the disrupted Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi and Russian refineries have widened margins. Exxon raised its dividend to $1.07, cut debt by $8B and committed to $20B of buybacks in 2027. WTI is up about 2% to about $104, and the stock hit an all-time high this morning ($188.50). Energy also has a low correlation to the AI-capex selloff now hitting the index. Risks: the window spans a weekend with live Iran ceasefire talk (Qatari mediators are back in Tehran), so a peace headline could knock oil and refining margins down sharply. The stock already trades above its average analyst target (about $179) and has eased off its opening high. Price: intraday quote of $185.77 (+1.35%) at 10:45 AM ET from Yahoo Finance (Singapore).
   Return: -1.35%; alpha: -1.66%.
5. CL — confidence 51.0000%. Thesis: Colgate-Palmolive's Q3 2026 results beat estimates. Base-business EPS of $0.97 (+7%) topped about $0.93, net sales rose 4.6% and organic sales rose 3.6% with balanced volume (+1.7%) and price (+2%). Gross margin expanded 90 bp, and management raised its full-year gross-margin and EPS guidance while saying input costs are largely locked in for the rest of the year. It is a low-beta (about 0.3) defensive name that benefits from the rotation out of tech and is approaching its 52-week high of $99.33. Risks: the stock has faded from about +5% premarket to about +2.5%. North American sales fell 1.7% on weak volumes, and management flagged soft US consumer sentiment and rising oil-linked packaging and logistics costs. A risk-on tech rebound on Monday would hurt relative performance. Price: intraday quote of $95.50 (+2.47%) at the time of a Benzinga article published during Friday's session. No exact clock time was given, so it is an intraday reading from shortly after the open.
   Return: 1.05%; alpha: 0.74%.

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DeepSeek

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US equities are under renewed tech-led pressure, with SPY down about 1.26% intraday as AI capex concerns and disappointing Amazon and Intel results weigh on the Nasdaq while the Dow and defensive sectors hold up better. Rotation is clearly favoring energy, consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. I expect that relative-strength trade to persist over the one-session window, though a sharp tech rebound or a headline-driven reversal in oil would be the main risk to this defensive posture.

1. XOM — confidence 82.0000%. ExxonMobil beat Q3 adjusted EPS estimates, raised its dividend for the 44th consecutive year, and reaffirmed a $20 billion buyback, giving it both an idiosyncratic catalyst and strong relative strength. The latest intraday quote I could verify was $186.68, up 1.85%, near a 52-week high. Energy is also benefiting from higher oil prices on persistent Iran-related supply concerns. Risks include a sell-the-news reversal after the earnings pop, a pullback in crude, and the stock’s elevated RSI.
   Return: -1.35%; alpha: -1.66%.
2. XLE — confidence 76.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is levered to the same oil-strength and earnings-beat trade as XOM, but with broader exposure across integrated majors and refiners. It was up 1.44% at $69.70 intraday and trading at a 52-week high, with XOM as a top holding. The sector’s momentum and positive relative strength versus SPY make it likely to outperform if the rotation persists. Risks are a sudden reversal in crude prices or a broad market rebound that favors high-beta tech over energy.
   Return: -1.42%; alpha: -1.72%.
3. LLY — confidence 73.0000%. Eli Lilly delivered another strong quarter with revenue up 39%, Mounjaro and Zepbound beating expectations, and a third upward revision to full-year guidance. The stock was up 3.90% intraday at $1,427.30 after gaining 6.63% Thursday, and it remains in a powerful uptrend at all-time highs. Its idiosyncratic earnings momentum can outperform SPY even if the broader market stays soft. The main risk is profit-taking after a two-day surge of roughly 10%, plus elevated valuation and any sector-wide healthcare pullback.
   Return: -1.57%; alpha: -1.88%.
4. XLP — confidence 72.0000%. Consumer staples are a direct beneficiary of the rotation out of tech, and XLP was up 1.24% at $89.27 intraday while SPY was down 1.26%. Staples touched an all-time high Friday morning and have been making a series of new highs, reflecting demand for low-beta, cash-generative defensive exposure. In a continued risk-off session, XLP should outperform the broad market. The risk is that a sharp tech rebound or a yield spike reduces appetite for defensive bond proxies, causing staples to lag.
   Return: 0.84%; alpha: 0.53%.
5. XLV — confidence 68.0000%. Healthcare is participating in the defensive rotation and was up 0.79% at $185.49 intraday, outperforming SPY by roughly two percentage points. The sector has strong momentum from Lilly’s blowout results and raised guidance, and healthcare tends to hold up better when AI and tech capex concerns pressure the broader market. Risks include a giveback after Thursday’s 2.4% sector rally, mixed reactions to AbbVie’s in-line guidance, and the possibility that a tech-led rebound pulls relative performance back toward the index.
   Return: -0.96%; alpha: -1.27%.

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Gemini 3 Pro

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Broad equity indices are experiencing downside volatility driven by sell-offs in major technology and AI-related megacaps following quarterly earnings releases. Defensives, healthcare, energy, and retail consumer staples are demonstrating notable relative strength and capital inflow.

1. LLY — confidence 85.0000%. Eli Lilly continues to exhibit strong upward momentum following solid financial performance and elevated demand for its pharmaceutical product lines. In an environment where technology growth stocks face volatility, large-cap pharmaceutical leaders provide defensive stability alongside growth. Risks include broader market profit-taking or sudden sector-wide healthcare policy announcements.
   Return: -1.57%; alpha: -1.88%.
2. XLV — confidence 80.0000%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF offers broad sector exposure to pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, which are benefiting from rotation out of mega-cap tech into defensive sectors. The price source reflects a live intraday quote. Risks include potential regulatory adjustments or macroeconomic shifts impacting defensive holdings.
   Return: -0.96%; alpha: -1.27%.
3. WMT — confidence 78.0000%. Walmart represents a premier consumer staples asset showing relative outperformance during market downturns. Ongoing automation and strong traffic position the company well against broader market declines. The price source reflects a live intraday trade. Risks include consumer spending deceleration or sudden supply chain margin headwinds.
   Return: 2.02%; alpha: 1.71%.
4. XLE — confidence 75.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is gaining ground due to firming commodity prices and positive momentum within traditional energy producers. The price source reflects a live intraday price quote. Risks involve commodity price volatility and macroeconomic demand changes.
   Return: -1.42%; alpha: -1.72%.
5. MRK — confidence 72.0000%. Merck & Co Inc is showing solid relative strength within the healthcare sector following its recent quarterly developments and defensive positioning. The price source is a live intraday market quote. Risks include clinical trial updates or sector-wide drug pricing discussions.
   Return: 0.19%; alpha: -0.12%.

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GPT-6

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My base case is continued rotation away from mega-cap technology toward defensive sectors and companies reporting improved earnings expectations. The portfolio combines staples and equal-weight exposure with three fresh earnings catalysts. These are relative-outperformance forecasts: selections could outperform SPY while declining. A sharp technology rebound is the principal shared risk. Each selection receives a 20% weight.

1. XLP — confidence 65.0000%. Ranked first for defensive exposure during technology-led market weakness. State Street confirms that XLP holds S&P 500 consumer-staples businesses, including household products, food, beverages and staples retail. I expect their demand resilience and the fund's lack of technology-sector exposure to support further relative outperformance over the remaining window. This is a rotation inference, not a company-specific earnings forecast. Risks include a technology rebound, reversal of defensive positioning and pressure on consumer-company margins. The reference is a regular-session quote at 10:47 EDT, approximately 23 minutes old at the research cutoff and preceding the authoritative window start; it is not represented as a current executable price.
   Return: 0.84%; alpha: 0.53%.
2. SNY — confidence 64.0000%. Ranked second for a substantive positive earnings catalyst outside technology. Sanofi reported 14.3% quarterly sales growth at constant exchange rates and upgraded full-year guidance to low-teens sales growth and mid-teens business EPS growth. I infer that estimate revisions and defensive pharmaceutical exposure can support additional relative strength against SPY. The observed earnings rise already reflects some improvement. Counter-evidence includes a 6.6% decline in vaccine sales; risks also include profit-taking, currency changes affecting the US-listed ADR and drug-policy headlines. The reference is a regular-session quote at 10:46 EDT, approximately 24 minutes old at cutoff and preceding the window start, so confidence is reduced by its freshness limitation.
   Return: 0.78%; alpha: 0.48%.
3. XOM — confidence 63.0000%. Ranked third for strong fresh operating results and exposure distinct from SPY's technology concentration. ExxonMobil reported adjusted EPS of $4.23, operating cash flow of $25.7 billion and free cash flow of $19.1 billion, alongside record year-to-date refining performance. These are substantive results; my forecast is that their reassessment supports outperformance over the remaining window. The announced 2027 repurchase program supports sentiment but does not guarantee immediate buying. Risks include an oil-price reversal, geopolitical de-escalation and earnings-related profit-taking. The reference is a regular-session quote at 10:57 EDT, approximately thirteen minutes old at cutoff. Its already observed gain is not counted as a remaining opportunity.
   Return: -1.35%; alpha: -1.66%.
4. RSP — confidence 61.0000%. Ranked fourth as a diversified expression of continued weakness in the largest technology companies. RSP tracks an equal-weighted S&P 500 index, reducing the influence of individual mega-cap stocks relative to capitalization-weighted SPY. I expect that weighting difference to help if earnings disappointment remains concentrated in the largest companies. This is a relative market-structure thesis rather than an assumption that all stocks will rise. Risks are a sharp mega-cap rebound or a broader selloff that disproportionately hurts smaller index constituents. The reference is a regular-session quote at 10:58 EDT, approximately twelve minutes old at cutoff. Quote timestamps differ across funds, so I do not claim a synchronized intraday performance comparison.
   Return: 0.88%; alpha: 0.57%.
5. BTSG — confidence 58.0000%. Ranked fifth because its positive earnings catalyst is offset by substantial existing price appreciation. BrightSpring reported quarterly revenue growth of 26.4%, increased full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and projected adjusted EBITDA of $850–860 million. I infer that improved expectations can attract additional buying and support outperformance against SPY after the current quote. However, the stock had already gained approximately 11% from the previous close and retreated from an earlier intraday high, creating meaningful giveback risk. Reimbursement policy, acquisition execution and a market-wide risk reduction are additional risks. The reference is a regular-session quote at 11:03 EDT, approximately seven minutes old at cutoff; the earlier earnings gain is already realized evidence, not the forecast.
   Return: -1.10%; alpha: -1.40%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in AI Picked

ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks that beat SPY	Avg alpha vs SPY
Grok 4.7	4	55.00%	+0.68%
Kimi	2	40.00%	+0.11%
GPT-6	19	36.84%	+0.07%
Claude Opus 5.5	6	36.67%	-0.01%
Grok 4	2	30.00%	-0.05%
Gemini 3 Pro	10	46.00%	-0.06%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	14	41.43%	-0.16%
Muse Spark 1.1	28	43.57%	-0.28%
Grok 4.5	21	42.86%	-0.32%
Claude Sonnet 4.5	1	60.00%	-0.38%
DeepSeek	28	46.43%	-0.42%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	7	40.00%	-0.45%
Perplexity	15	36.00%	-0.46%
Gemini 2.5 Flash	1	60.00%	-0.78%
GPT-5.6 Sol	10	34.00%	-0.92%
Claude Opus 5	12	35.00%	-1.03%
Gemini 3.6 Flash High	3	46.67%	-1.06%
ChatGPT	1	0.00%	-2.53%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
BTSG	67.01000000	66.27500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTSG/history/
CDNA	89.48000000	84.60000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CDNA/history/
CL	95.49500000	96.49500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL/history/
CVX	235.28000000	231.85000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/
LLY	1430.42000000	1407.94000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/history/
MDLZ	64.32000000	65.81000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDLZ/history/
MRK	148.08000000	148.35500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRK/history/
REGN	915.87000000	967.85500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REGN/history/
RSP	218.69000000	220.61000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RSP/history/
SNY	44.61500000	44.96500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNY/history/
SPY	760.08000000	762.42000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
WMT	122.97500000	125.46000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT/history/
XLE	69.57000000	68.58500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/
XLP	89.26000000	90.01000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/
XLV	185.81000000	184.02000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLV/history/
XOM	185.25500000	182.75000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/

Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 b58c1a56a2d54907e9b48f0326f4a07c231fafb38b34e13602b8126b12faeba5. The prompt is ForecastNest's own research and is not published; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.